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[Snakey]

From the NPD thread:

Monthly Powerhouse™ vs PSP comparison as it seems jcm still hasn't updated the chart.

        3DS 2014  PSP 2008  NDS 2008
January       97       230       251
February     153       243       587
March        159       297       698
April        106       193       415
May           97       182       452
June         152       337       783
July         108       222       608
August        91       253       518
September    141       238       537
October      138       193       491
November     515       421      1570
December              1020      3040
Through 
November     1757     2809      6910

Total                 3829      9950

3DS wins! (going to lose december though as 3DS barely sold a million last year and this year it has been down yoy every month).

Edit. Fixed the numbers.

This is really disconcerting. The 3DS is positioned very well as far as consoles go (price point and especially library are excellent), and still gets a steady stream of releases from both first and third-parties, yet lately it has been tracking behind the PSP in the West. The PSP itself was very successful, doing more than 80 million worldwide, and the Nintendo DS ranks alongside the PS2 as the highest selling dedicated game console of all time (over 150 million).

Yet it is looking to be that even the final LTD numbers of the 3DS and Vita will barely trump the PSP's (it might not even do that).

I would be very interested to know the Vita's sales in 2014 in the American market (its likely doing sub-Wii U numbers, but it would still be interesting to compare it with the PSP, and to see in general just how big the market is for dedicated handhelds at this point).

I am curious though. Why is the 3DS's decline so steep? They manager to turn around the 3DS for 2011, and while the platform was never on the same level as the DS and GBA, its hardware sales were at least healthy. Would a future handheld even be able to thrive in the West at this point?

Its scary how much the dedicated handheld market has evaporated when just a generation ago it supported not just one of the highest selling dedicated home consoles ever, but also a competitor console that sold about on par with the PS3/360. Now it has shrunk to the point where the market leader won't even reach the competitor's LTD (PSP), and the successor to that competitor (Vita) has virtually no presence outside Japan.

This is more distraught for Nintendo considering their traditional bread-and-butter has been handhelds, and the GBA was a sales monster when they had the GameCube on the market. Now the Wii U is performing much worse than the GameCube ever did, and the 3DS is only a mediocre success outside Japan.

Interestingly the GameCube's LTD is in North America was around 13 million, and only at the end of last year did the 3DS reach that number in North America. This means in the biggest market it may only end up 3-5 million more in its LTD than a console which many deemed a sales failure (personally, I thought the GameCube did ok for itself in North America, at least software sold on it).

Handhelds are great because they offer games with sizable budgets that you can no longer find on consoles. To see them slowly go the way of arcades is dispiriting. The 3DS in particular has a great library, arguably the best library of all the consoles of this generation so far. However, it seems the remaining market for the 3DS are core gamers and children whose parents don't trust with a smartphone/tablet. The Vita seems to have no base outside of absolute hardcore players (its LTD is only two million in North America).

I am not sure if there is anything that can be done to stop this decline outside Japan. Maybe a more aggressive price point for a successor, but otherwise I think Nintendo may have a tough time reaching 3DS-level success with their handheld successor, especially outside Japan.

What are your thoughts?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

It's because the 3DS is no longer in a handheld market that only really contained the NDS and the PSP.

 

[TheBaronOfNA]

3DS decline in the west was announced since a while a go.

 

[watershed]

There are some powerful trends that indicate the handheld market is collapsing rapidly but I don't think it's inevitable. I think the right product at the right price from Nintendo can rebound nicely from the lows of the 3ds.

 

[Gambit 1138]

It already collapsed in the west

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

iPads and iPhones and Androids are now gaming devices. Less of a need for a dedicated gaming handheld when all of the other ones have Minecraft (Worlds biggest game ever) and the 3DS does not.


I don't see there being a decent 4DS unless it runs Android or something. It's hard for me to picture Nintendo clawing back in handhelds or consoles unless its with something crazy.

 

[Malio]

I sure hope so. Get that shit out of here and get Nintendo games back on my living room console.

 

[VLiberty]

I sure hope so. Get that shit out of here and get Nintendo games back on my living room console.

You should probably thank the handhelds if you can still play Nintendo games on your living room console.

 

[Who]

It appears to be but I'll reserve final judgement until Nintendo releases it's hybrid console..

 

[EMT0]

It is not collapsing. The DS and PSP were just abnormally successful, and the 3DS is a return to form, albeit in a different market landscape than what the GBA had. The market's declining at the expense of mobile; that's simply the real answer. Or the market has grown, with the addition of mobile if you choose to go by that perspective.

 

[Mecha]

I sure hope so. Get that shit out of here and get Nintendo games back on my living room console.

I have a feeling Nintendo would get rid of the Wii U before the 3DS.

 

[Jachaos]

I sure hope so. Get that shit out of here and get Nintendo games back on my living room console.

Without Smash 3DS' sales, Smash Wii U would've been worse. As it stands we got an amazing game on both consoles instead of a lesser game on only one console.

 

[SDCowboy]

I assume most of the handheld market has long since moved to tablets.

 

[Malio]

You should probably thank the handhelds if you can still play Nintendo games on your living room console.

I know. And it pisses me off.

 

[Brashnir]

Dedicated gaming handhelds have reached niche status at this point.

Hopefully this doesn't compound problems with niche genres, some of which see much of their success on handhelds, but it probably will.

 

[LegendofLex]

I am curious though. Why is the 3DS's decline so steep?

Unappealing hardware with an unappealing value proposition (people have rejected 3D, and the hardware is not attractive otherwise)

No worthwhile mass market titles outside of Pokemon and Mario Kart (NSMB2 is a joke, and 3DS has no real analogs to GB's Tetris or DS's Touch Generation series; it doesn't even have Minecraft, which basically kills its potential with the kid market)

I sure hope so. Get that shit out of here and get Nintendo games back on my living room console.

Right now it looks like the future for Nintendo is to have other product lines subsidize their consoles, which they're bad at making money off of.

Also, I'm guessing we'll be saying the same thing about the console market when neither PS4 or Xbox One breaks 60 million by 2018.

 

[muu]

It's a tough sell when you can get an older ipad mini for 200 new, and android tablets even cheaper. The allure of shitty cheap games is strong as well.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

I am curious though. Why is the 3DS's decline so steep?

The answer is really simple:

iPhone->iPad revolution that evolved into the general smartphone/tablet revolution

The cool kids went from DS to iPad minis

 

[Servbot24]

I'm fine with them going away. I only play them in my bedroom anyways.

Nintendo should just make an official controller for iOS and Android devices and put full priced games on those.

Nintendo games are a treasure but there is nothing sacred about their hardware.

 

[Nirolak]

We've been there for a while.

Astronomical gen over gen declines, no signs of improvement, the best system can't compare to even the failed platform of last gen and the failed platform of this gen can't get past four digits.

 

[deltatheta]

Could just be just restabilizing rather than collapsing. The handheld market shrunk to accommodate smart phones, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will go away. Developing games for handheld tends to be pretty cheap so it could still remain a viable market even if it's smaller, especially if Nintendo et al come up with ways to reduce the cost of development and get cheaper content.

 

[Snakey]

It is not collapsing. The DS and PSP were just abnormally successful, and the 3DS is a return to form, albeit in a different market landscape than what the GBA had.

The sales trajectory for Game Boy Advance was phenomenal. Nintendo had to aggressively try to kill the thing in the West in order for sales to fall off. In less than five years it sold around 35-40 million in North America. That is something that very consoles see.

 

[GameSeeker]

Yes.

Any handheld/mobile devices in this day and age needs to Internet connected. For most folks that Internet connected device will be a smartphone. Once you put a smartphone in your pocket there is no room for a 3DS/Vita type device.

Vita is likely to be Sony's last dedicated handheld gaming platform. If Nintendo was smart, 3DS would be their last too. But, Nintendo always marches to the beat of a different drum, so it will be entertaining to see what they do next.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

I don't think it's collapsing, but there's no doubt it's massively shrunk.

Nintendo could still continue to make money with sales like the 3DS is seeing.

Hell, I think Sony can even make money (albeit a much smaller amount) with the Vita.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

It is not collapsing. The DS and PSP were just abnormally successful, and the 3DS is a return to form,

How would you quantify this? Surely not by looking at the past 2 years WW, because from the limited examples we have, the GBC, GBA, and DS were wildly successful for at least a few years. What form are they returning to with 3DS?

 

[muu]

I'm fine with them going away. I only play them in my bedroom anyways.

Nintendo should just make an official controller for iOS and Android devices and put full priced games on those.

Nintendo games are a treasure but there is nothing sacred about their hardware.

If you could sell $40 games on the app store and get accepted by the audience it would have happened already.

 

[Renzoku]

It's dead, Jim.

Smartphones are keeping people entertained with simplistic McDonalds quality apps, and that's the only gaming most people have ever given a shit about. All those new "gamers".

The other issue is that people have been conditioned to accept mobile games for Free - $4.99. The concept of paying $40+ for a portable video game is probably beyond the realm of reason to many people at this point.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Smart phones have unquestionably run rampant through handheld sales.
The 3DS shows there is a market still there for handheld consoles, albeit a much smaller one. Nintendo is hurting enough in the console space I think it's unlikely they'll be abandoning the handheld market any time soon. So long as Nintendo can turn a profit on the hardware and publishers can make a healthy profit on handheld titles, things will be okay.

Contracting markets aren't great, but it isn't like the whole market is gone.

Yet it is looking to be that even the final LTD numbers of the 3DS and Vita will barely trump the PSP's (it might not even do that).

I would be very interested to know the Vita's sales in 2014 in the American market (its likely doing sub-Wii U numbers, but it would still be interesting to compare it with the PSP, and to see in general just how big the market is for dedicated handhelds at this point).

Sony wishes the Vita was selling anywhere near as "well" as the Wii U in the American market.

 

[Jotamide]

Sadly, the way I see it is that in the future Nintendo will have a console/handheld hybrid to pool their dev efforts and that Sony will merge the Vita's hardware into their Xperia phones once the tech is advanced enough.

 

[QaaQer]

Could just be just restabilizing rather than collapsing. The handheld market shrunk to accommodate smart phones, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will go away. Developing games for handheld tends to be pretty cheap so it could still remain a viable market even if it's smaller, especially if Nintendo et al come up with ways to reduce the cost of development and get cheaper content.

How is Nintendo is going to get people to carry a game machine around in addition to a phone?

 

[Ophelion]

Contraction of the market? Definitely. I'm not confidant enough to predict total collapse, though. Maybe if a functional solution for playing a broader range of games can ever be found for tablets or smart phones. That would be the final nail in the coffin.

Also a very sad day for me. I'm one of those minority westerners who vastly prefers playing handheld games over console.

 

[fhqwhgads]

I'm fine with them going away. I only play them in my bedroom anyways.

Nintendo should just make an official controller for iOS and Android devices and put full priced games on those.

Nintendo games are a treasure but there is nothing sacred about their hardware.

That didn't take long.
(Granted you're not outright saying Nintendo should go mobile but either way it's never going to happen.)

 

[JordanN]

Could just be just restabilizing rather than collapsing. The handheld market shrunk to accommodate smart phones, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will go away. Developing games for handheld tends to be pretty cheap so it could still remain a viable market even if it's smaller, especially if Nintendo et al come up with ways to reduce the cost of development and get cheaper content.

If Nintendo's next handheld is suppose to be Vita or Wii U level, that's not going to happen.

In some ways, I think 3DS development is high as well. Even Iwata said it costs 10x more money to make a 3DS game than DS.

 

[Foffy]

Probably rebounded to more "realistic" sales from dedicated users, as the more casual consumer has probably migrated to phones.

 

[Instro]

Its definitely cratered, but there is still money to be made there. 3ds has a 50 million install base, even in a completely smartphone/tablet dominated market. It will be interesting to see if that market segment stabalizes in its next generation. If Nintendo does do a shared architecture and OS, I suppose the handheld sales might shrink a bit more in favor of the console.

 

[SDCowboy]

Tech-wise, I'm not sure of the point of a dedicated handheld device. Tablets and smart phones are thinner and have much larger screens, plus have their obvious other uses. Handhelds just seems like an obsolete tech at this point, IMO.

 

[arevin01]

Give us the options to downlaod thousands of free app games and the 3DS will be right back on top.

 

[Zee-Row]

I wouldn't mind tablets and handhelds if regular controllers were standard. iOS 7 was supposed to use a controller standard that never happened. I love Dragon Quest on my iphone but its still a pain in the ass to control.

 

[Vashetti]

Headed toward collapse?

It's clinging onto the edge of the cliff for dear life.

Sony will be out of the (handheld) game after the Vita is out of production, leaving Nintendo out in the cold with whatever their 3DS successor is going to be.

Then you'll truly see the harsh reality of the state of the handheld market.

 

[Guevara]

Headed towards?

 

[Morfeo]

It is definitely headed towards collapse in the west yeah, Nintendo needs to do something really unique with the 3DS successor to be able to stand a chance in this market.

 

[Orayn]

It's pretty much dried up, yeah. It may survive as a niche, but it'll probably never be a "big thing" again.

I wouldn't mind tablets and handhelds if regular controllers were standard. iOS 7 was supposed to use a controller standard that never happened. I love Dragon Quest on my iphone but its still a pain in the ass to control.

The iOS controller standard is alive and well, and there area a decent number of MFi controllers available. The number of games that actually use them is what's disappointing.

 

[hosannainexcelsis]

Tech-wise, I'm not sure of the point of a dedicated handheld device. Tablets and smart phones are thinner and have much larger screens, plus have their obvious other uses. Handhelds just seems like an obsolete tech at this point, IMO.

Tablets and smartphones don't have real controls. That's the biggest problem.

 

[Josh7289]

It's pretty dead, at least compared to its height. Also, that data in the OP is only for the US, not the entire West. So keep that in mind.

Anyway, most people spend their money on smartphones and just play games there anymore. And smartphones and data plans aren't cheap, so there isn't much money leftover to spend on dedicated gaming hardware that takes up even more space. It's a niche nowadays.

That said, there's still enough room to support one dedicated handheld game platform, I think. Nintendo will keep making them and making money off of them, but barring any radical new and exclusive technology, the boom is over.

 

[Vashetti]

Headed toward collapse?

Headed towards?

 

[Branduil]

It's still too expensive for what it is. I think there's a space for Nintendo to carve out next gen as a low-end alternative to more expensive consoles, but they need to reach that impulse-buy price range below $100. Gaming on consoles is now a luxury and as the most family-friendly console maker Nintendo has been hurt the most by the rise of mobile gaming.

 

[Zoon]

I believe in europe things are much much worse.I can see that from the people I know no one except me has a handheld, while about 10 years ago about 40 of those had at least one of GBA/GBAsp.

 

[Zee-Row]

It's pretty much dried up, yeah. It may survive as a niche, but it'll probably never be a "big thing" again.



The iOS controller standard is alive and well, and there area a decent number of MFi controllers available. The number of games that actually use them is what's disappointing.

What controllers are out there that actually work well? I've seen that Moga Ace for $80 but i've heard that it feels cheap and the buttons are garbage.

 

[Renzoku]

Tech-wise, I'm not sure of the point of a dedicated handheld device. Tablets and smart phones are thinner and have much larger screens, plus have their obvious other uses. Handhelds just seems like an obsolete tech at this point, IMO.

On one hand, I agree, handhelds are basically garbage hardware that you play complex, but bite-size versions of games compared to consoles.

On the other hand, Smartphones are cutting edge hardware with simplistic garbage on them, compared to what you play on a handheld.

The market that will remain will be people looking for a deeper experience on the go than what smartphones can provide with their limited interface.

 

[Guevara]

Honestly the biggest problem in my mind is handheld games cost $40. An unfathomably princely sum in the year of our lord, 2014.