nephilimdj
Member
They wont even release the latest brain training in Europe, they are pretending the DS touch gen success never happened.
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Is the handheld market in the West headed towards collapse?
- Thread starter Snakey
- Start date
If Nintendo games were on phones they wouldn't need to be $40. There are over 1 billion smartphones in use today. That is a vastly larger audience than the current 50 million for 3DS. Assuming an equal attach rate, you could sell Zelda on phones for $2 and make the same amount of profit as selling it for $40 on 3DS. Or you could sell it for $4 and double your current profit. Minus profit from hardware sales.
Naturally that is oversimplifying things, but the point is that it's extremely viable.
SwiftDeath
Member
Unless something changes greatly and positively affects the handheld market in the west, the declines will simply continue and it will become increasingly niche.
I imagine there are a slew of reasons to attribute the decline to
These problems compounded with each other and led to the sped up declines we've been seeing. Sony is likely out of the handheld business but Nintendo is most certainly not. What Nintendo does going forward to try and stop the bleeding is anyone's guess however.
I imagine there are a slew of reasons to attribute the decline to
- Rise and dominance of iphones/ipads/tablets [often being passed parent to child upon upgrade with cheap/free gaming]
- Handheld game prices going the opposite direction of its competition's pricing [tablets] upwards to $40 a game versus free with IAPs
- Both "major" dedicated handheld offerings [I call the Vita a major offering because of R&D cost not because of sales performance] the 3DS and Vita started life at $249 which as even the 3DS's initial performance showed the market was entirely unwilling to pay for a dedicated handheld gaming system
These problems compounded with each other and led to the sped up declines we've been seeing. Sony is likely out of the handheld business but Nintendo is most certainly not. What Nintendo does going forward to try and stop the bleeding is anyone's guess however.
This
I think Nintendo can keep releasing ~40 million-selling handhelds and make enough money. At least that's what I hope.
This
I think Nintendo can keep releasing ~40 million-selling handhelds and make enough money. At least that's what I hope.
They probably can. But most stockholders are not interested in "enough".
You are forgetting about Apple that has a 30% cut on profits
YatÅkiri_Kilgharrah
Banned
Old software isnt 40$ still. That's what drives late adopters you know.
Anyway the thing is the 3DS is still 200$. It needs to be cheaper,nintendo's just wringing out as much profit as they can.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I don't understand this. Are you extrapolating the 3DS' attach rate to smartphones? That makes zero sense to do.
Besides that, you're forgetting the cuts that App Stores take.
YatÅkiri_Kilgharrah
Banned
The 3DS is also almost 4 years old. It'll be 4 in Febuarry.
Would the game sell that much to begin with? Not to mention the entire development process that goes behind that and the fact that they produce hardware that's subsidizes costs and make s them profit.
This is why Nintendo's doing the QOL thing and making apps to keep people engaged with nintendo even while they're on tehir phones. So they pay attention to their hardware and software.
The 3DS and Wii U's hardware development teams were merged and they've been making a lot of cross platform software, so that I feel is going to be merged going down the road.
It'll lower development time and costs.
Plus people tend to forget we have seen many "traditional" developers failing at making bank on iOS. Capcom hardly bothers anymore, and it seems like Sega and Namco are mostly doing really simple F2P stuff that never makes it to the charts. Having a huge install base doesn't mean success is a given (and this huge install base is a very different one, too).
YatÅkiri_Kilgharrah
Banned
99$ is a lot less today than compared to 2001.
Nintendo needs to make a new handheld that runs mobile software easily. Easy to port too. They also need it to be strong enough to run downported WIi U games.
Backwards compatibiility is also a must. So around 180$ at launch. That should be enough.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah;143063128 said:
And? The comparison made in the OP is to the relevant year in the PSP's lifespan [it's 3rd year on the market] so why would that change any aspect of the discussion?
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Heading? It is already there. Tablets and Smartphones have replaced them. The graphical power of those machines far surpass anything Nintendo or Sony currently pulls off, and the game quality is slowly getting good enough to be effective replacements.
For example, I had over 50 DS games and 30 PSP Games. Now, I barely have 13 3DS games and I don't own a vita. I put more gaming time on my iPad and it has effectively replaced my home and portable consoles. I am only one example, there are millions of people like me. Hence why Nintendo's 3DS and the Sony PS3 Vita are selling the way they are.
The bigger question is this, IS THE HANDHELD MARKET IN JAPAN HEADED TOWARDS COLLAPSE?
While the 3DS is selling well compared to the rest of the world, the sales compared to all its predecessors are quite scary if you love Nintendo consoles.
For example, I had over 50 DS games and 30 PSP Games. Now, I barely have 13 3DS games and I don't own a vita. I put more gaming time on my iPad and it has effectively replaced my home and portable consoles. I am only one example, there are millions of people like me. Hence why Nintendo's 3DS and the Sony PS3 Vita are selling the way they are.
The bigger question is this, IS THE HANDHELD MARKET IN JAPAN HEADED TOWARDS COLLAPSE?
While the 3DS is selling well compared to the rest of the world, the sales compared to all its predecessors are quite scary if you love Nintendo consoles.
Kotetsu534
Member
I could see Sony refusing to release a follow up to the Vita, but I'm sure Nintendo aren't going to give up on the handheld scene, given that it is the video game scene in Japan. And as such, they'll keep releasing their games worldwide, and other Japanese developers will keep doing cost/benefit analyses on whether to take their games out of Japan. Essentially, the western handheld scene will just be Japanese games, which is pretty much what it already is, so not much will change.
SwiftDeath
Member
If you're talking about dedicated handheld devices in that sentiment that's not true at all
http://www.idownloadblog.com/2013/10/29/apple-iphone-japan/
https://www.techinasia.com/games-account-for-nearly-90-of-all-mobile-app-revenue-in-japan/
App Store is blue, Google Play is yellow
So why did I keep hearing that the 3DS was "breaking records" and wasn't it's "failed" launch selling more month to month than the DS in the same time period?
Where did the disconnect happen? Did sales suddenly tank recently?
EDIT
Found it http://bgr.com/2012/03/06/nintendo-3ds-sales-in-u-s-reach-4-5-million-in-first-year/ 3DS broke year 1 sales records
and in 2012 was the fastest selling console ever http://bgr.com/2012/03/06/nintendo-3ds-sales-in-u-s-reach-4-5-million-in-first-year/
Where did the drop off happen exactly?
Where did the disconnect happen? Did sales suddenly tank recently?
EDIT
Found it http://bgr.com/2012/03/06/nintendo-3ds-sales-in-u-s-reach-4-5-million-in-first-year/ 3DS broke year 1 sales records
and in 2012 was the fastest selling console ever http://bgr.com/2012/03/06/nintendo-3ds-sales-in-u-s-reach-4-5-million-in-first-year/
Where did the drop off happen exactly?
YatÅkiri_Kilgharrah
Banned
I cant imagine what you're playing on it. Ports? Brave Frontier? Monster Strke? Terra Battle? Pazudora? Candy Crush? Clash of Clans? Simpson and Kim Kardashian games?
An over reliance on Free to Play is killing the business opportunity on mobile http://www.polygon.com/2014/5/9/5699058/free-to-play-mobile-candy-crush-the-room
Phones are 600$ hardware subsidized in 200$ contracts. Power isnt the be all end all when the games it has does nothing with it and cant do everything handhelds can. Although phones do have fun gimmicks and wider software support.
Phones and handheld are clearly co-existing here. Phones and Tablets have hit a peak according to several analysts and the metrics we've had for the past few years. Handhelds weathered the storm. We'll see where things go from here on out. Nintendo will keep doing their thing.
No. The 3DS happened to break records and slow itself at the same time.
The 3DS just broke another software record the other day as well. Hardware isnt moving as much as they did in the older days
Its more like NIntendo owns half the market, and Apple owns the other half with Android on the side.
Namco is still the biggest, traditional 3rd party publisher in japan.
Finale Fireworker
Member
And here I am wishing for MORE handheld games and devices. I'm getting older, I have less opportunity to sit in front of a television alone.
I did forget the cut.
But they would certainly sell far more than they could on 3DS. And it doesn't have to be $2. Most game fans would gladly buy a $20 Zelda game for example.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah;143064337 said:
Yeah that's not true
http://www.serkantoto.com/2014/07/30/japan-gaming-market-size-statistics/
So even if somehow Nintendo had 100% of the console markets software sales [consoles here include handhelds of course] they would still only have 42% of the market and Nintendo don't have the whole market in the first place
deltatheta
Member
Hasn't Square Enix experimented with high quality original iOS games at the $15-20 price point? How has that worked out for them?
Trigonometrize.
Member
Good games are worth more than bad games. Good games can be on handheld aa much as console. $20 discount is already pretty fortunate in my book.
It really isn't. The PSP and DS were slightly older in 2008.
Good tablets cost more, but the 3DS is way worse HW wise than the cheapest tablets out there.
Uncle Rupee
Banned
I think Nintendo will either move towards a fusion of their console and handhelds, or do something dramatically different and unexpected in the space. A Nintendo phone is not out of the question imo, and I would personally rather own a Nintendo phone than an Apple or Samsung.
outunderthestars
Banned
grap3fruitman
Banned
Mario 64 DS is still the same price is was ten years ago by me.Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah;143062561 said:
Mobile gaming and such is taking over, so I think if they can't beat them they may as well join them. I think that will be the future for them if they want one. The Xperia Play was kind of on the right track I thought. If there was a mobile phone market that could run high quality games of close standards with the 3DS or Vita, I'd buy it.
and if games were actually made for it.
Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah;143057581 said:
It kind of intrigues me that when the product leader jumped ship to Nintendo, no (at least as far as I'm aware) clones followed suit. It was a new (at the time) generation, there was lots of space to make large decisions of that nature, yet much of the clones went all-in on Vita.
Uncle Rupee
Banned
Why is that so out of the question? It's not like Apple or Samsung were known for making phones before they got into that market either. I bet Nintendo phones would be very popular in Japan.
flatearthpandas
Member
Soul Sacrifice and Freedom Wars are both Sony developed. That leaves Ragnorok Odyssey and God Eater 2.
Astral Dog
Member
Yeah, its been a thing for awhile, you see, most people play on smartphones now.
I feel like there's a fact here that we need to face.
People do not care about video games. "Games on my phone? That's all I need!" The concept of "there are better games elsewhere" means nothing to them because they don't care about it in the first place. They just want something to keep them a little entertained while waiting in line.
It makes sense to me that the only reason handhelds used to sell well is because they were the easiest, least expensive, most time sensitive option that people used to have.
I don't expect handhelds to go away though. I just expect them to settle into a smaller niche.
People do not care about video games. "Games on my phone? That's all I need!" The concept of "there are better games elsewhere" means nothing to them because they don't care about it in the first place. They just want something to keep them a little entertained while waiting in line.
It makes sense to me that the only reason handhelds used to sell well is because they were the easiest, least expensive, most time sensitive option that people used to have.
I don't expect handhelds to go away though. I just expect them to settle into a smaller niche.
higgsboson1997
Member
It's definitely a shrinking market, with only Pokemon and the power of other Nintendo exclusives still keeping it afloat. I still have friends playing on it, but nowhere near the number of people who had a DS. I also know a lot of kids who really want one, but there parents are not willing to buy it for them, because they don't see a value in one over an iPad or an iPhone. I think that's another reason for the decline.
It makes me really sad- I always found handhelds infinitely more fun and immersive than consoles. While I struggled to spend 20 hours on a console game and never wanted to go over that, I never had a problem with spending 200 hours on a handheld game.
It makes me really sad- I always found handhelds infinitely more fun and immersive than consoles. While I struggled to spend 20 hours on a console game and never wanted to go over that, I never had a problem with spending 200 hours on a handheld game.
Yep not only that, but Vita indies are $20 in Australia... I'd much rather buy them on Steam for $1 or $2 and put up with whatever controls the game gives me.
deltatheta
Member
higgsboson1997
Member
I know that's what many think, and I guess it's fair seeing how low the mobile game prices are. But, from the producer's viewpoint, handheld games are usually of an extremely high quality and are usually longer than console games. Isn't paying 2/3 of the price fair for that?
tonythedemon
Neo Member
Shrinking it may be, but I don't know it it will ever collapse. It might do in 10 years or so but Nintendo looks best in the handheld platforms, at least for a lot of the past years. I've got a PS vita and I love the damn thing, that and a bunch of PS vita games have been announced at PSX.
The comparison in the OP is a same-point-in-lifecycle generation over generation comparison.
Ah well I guess we just view the word hybrid differently. I expect, based off the comments, their next 2 consoles to share the same games, same saves, etc. with the home console running them at a higher resolution, frame rate etc.
I think this could potentially be huge for the appeal of a handheld.
I maintain that there's still an opportunity for a dedicated handheld device in the current market, and that the 3DS is proof of that, almost because of how bad it is. We've reached 'peak smartphone / tablet', and yet the 3DS, a poor console at a poor price with muddled marketing, has managed to sell millions due to the strength of its software and name recognition alone.
What could Nintendo do if they got the hardware right, the price right, the online apps and ecosystem / accounts right? I think they could be successful again, I really do.
I also think the 'people don't have room to take 2 devices with them' issue is a non-factor, because (anecdotally) I never, ever heard of people doing the majority of their handheld gaming outside of the home. People game on handhelds relaxing on the couch while their girlfriend watches TV, or a kid plays on his bed while his parent cooks dinner, thinking the kid's doing homework.
Even a decade ago, I saw 4 gaming sectors - PC, Home Console, Handheld, and Mobile. Even back then people were happy to play Snake or Solitaire on their Nokia 7990's or what have you, but I never saw anyone ever play a DS in public. Everyone had them, yeah. People I knew had them, and loved them. But they never left the home.
So convergence isn't the sole issue here. Make a properly great device with an appealing form factor. Get the price right for hardware and software (realistically launch at 150 and 25 dollars for the machine and games) and then market it properly and kids and gamers will buy in. The DS days aren't returning, but the market isn't 'over' either.
--
The one issue I see is that with the DS you could make a cheap sprite game and charge 25-30 bucks for it and sell millions. Now that we expect console-quality 3D gaming on the go, it might be the case that the cost of making handheld games is no longer feasible given the size of the market that's interested in such games. With AAA 'mature' games, that has been proven to be the case without a shadow of a doubt by the Vita, but even Nintendo's portable games these days are full-blown 3D extravaganzas, as shown by how similar their big Mario games for 3DS and Wii U ended up being.
What could Nintendo do if they got the hardware right, the price right, the online apps and ecosystem / accounts right? I think they could be successful again, I really do.
I also think the 'people don't have room to take 2 devices with them' issue is a non-factor, because (anecdotally) I never, ever heard of people doing the majority of their handheld gaming outside of the home. People game on handhelds relaxing on the couch while their girlfriend watches TV, or a kid plays on his bed while his parent cooks dinner, thinking the kid's doing homework.
Even a decade ago, I saw 4 gaming sectors - PC, Home Console, Handheld, and Mobile. Even back then people were happy to play Snake or Solitaire on their Nokia 7990's or what have you, but I never saw anyone ever play a DS in public. Everyone had them, yeah. People I knew had them, and loved them. But they never left the home.
So convergence isn't the sole issue here. Make a properly great device with an appealing form factor. Get the price right for hardware and software (realistically launch at 150 and 25 dollars for the machine and games) and then market it properly and kids and gamers will buy in. The DS days aren't returning, but the market isn't 'over' either.
--
The one issue I see is that with the DS you could make a cheap sprite game and charge 25-30 bucks for it and sell millions. Now that we expect console-quality 3D gaming on the go, it might be the case that the cost of making handheld games is no longer feasible given the size of the market that's interested in such games. With AAA 'mature' games, that has been proven to be the case without a shadow of a doubt by the Vita, but even Nintendo's portable games these days are full-blown 3D extravaganzas, as shown by how similar their big Mario games for 3DS and Wii U ended up being.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
Yatōkiri_Kilgharrah;143062561 said:
My post encapsulates these sentences as well.
Poetic.Injustice
Member
The snartphone market has shown that quantity > quality. No matter how great the $40 3ds games are they just can't match the endless stream of android/ios titles.
bigcummer99
Neo Member
The car's on fire and there's no driver at the wheel
And the sewers are all muddied with a thousand lonely Vitas
And a dark wind blows
The gaming industry is corrupt
And we're on so many drugs
With the iPads on and the curtains drawn
We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine
And the machine is bleeding to death
And the sewers are all muddied with a thousand lonely Vitas
And a dark wind blows
The gaming industry is corrupt
And we're on so many drugs
With the iPads on and the curtains drawn
We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine
And the machine is bleeding to death