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January 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

Link

The Autumn Wind
Rhindle said:
OF COURSE you don't look at numbers in a vacuum.
You say it, but considering you're ignoring all other factors involved, you're not taking your own advice.
 
Alcibiades said:
World at War for Wii might have sold more if Activision shipped more copies for their initial shipment... some stores seemed to not have enough stock.

Rhindle's makes a valid point. Although it'll probably pass 1 million in sales (U.S.) when all is said and done, it pales to how the other versions did.

That said, as good as the game was, it was still flawed... Key multiplayer features were missing and there was no GCN/Classic Controller functionality.

Edit: It would be interesting, JVM, for you to create a chart with Wii sales of World at War if you ever get them, just to make it visually explicit how World at War surpassing Modern Warfare on home consoles is reliant on the availability of the Wii SKU.
One important fact that's been repeated here in this thread is that Modern Warfare was absent on the Wii, decidedly stunting the growth of the COD fanbase on the platform.

So in that sense, Rhindle is wrong.
 

Luckyman

Banned
Karma said:
Going by COD the PS3 is performing below its user base percentage for software.

Well, going by COD Wii is doomed for multiplats.

lowlylowlycook said:
The interesting thing is that the PS3's install base must have been much much higher for WaW's release compared to CoD4s (remember how low PS3 sales in 2007 were), yet the sales are barely higher at all.

You are trying so hard it´s funny. Last time i checked 360 hardware increased more YOY.
 

Rhindle

Member
Link said:
You say it, but considering you're ignoring all other factors involved, you're not taking your own advice.
Look, you'll always be able to come up with justifications. The justification used to be "Wii ports are crappy, if developers made good ports they would sell just as well." If the current justification is that prior iterations of a franchise didn't appear on the platform, then granted that may be a factor - but it doesn't help your cause much. Most big releases are sequels, so if you're going to avoid the Wii for all sequels that doesn't bode well for the platform.
 

markatisu

Member
Guys just give it up, COD WaW was an abysmal failure and when it remains in the Top 20-30 till October or November we can just say that these types of games do not sell on Wii
 

ZeoVGM

Banned
Alcibiades said:
World at War for Wii might have sold more if Activision shipped more copies for their initial shipment... some stores seemed to not have enough stock.

Rhindle's makes a valid point. Although it'll probably pass 1 million in sales (U.S.) when all is said and done, it pales to how the other versions did.

That said, as good as the game was, it was still flawed... Key multiplayer features were missing and there was no GCN/Classic Controller functionality.

Edit: It would be interesting, JVM, for you to create a chart with Wii sales of World at War if you ever get them, just to make it visually explicit how World at War surpassing Modern Warfare on home consoles is reliant on the availability of the Wii SKU.

The point was that he said they were dismal, not that it pales in comparison to the other versions. But saying sales are bad is a factually incorrect statement. It sold well, just the least out of the three.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
jred250 said:
jvm, are you an armchair analyst, or do you also do it professionally? Not that I'm insinuating that the quality of your work isn't professional (it's great), but I would imagine that someone with formal business education doing work like this, rather than an all-purpose games industry writer.

I hope this didn't sound insulting, as it is actually a compliment.
I am about as far from videogames, business, and the business of videogames in my everyday work as you can get.

I'm not a general purpose writer. The things editors have asked me to write have largely been technical. No one every paid me for a review. Well, except for reviews of Linux games for a long-defunct Linux magazine. Good times.

The short version is that a site editor knew the kind of writing I had done on my blog and suggested I turn my attention to NPD figures. It turned out well, in my estimation. The folks here on GAF are my critical group of peers who keep me on my toes.

Enough about me. How about those dismal CoD5 Wii sales?
 
Pachael said:
What struck me was the console v handheld wars - from the MC charts the latter is gaining while from NPD the former's going better. The revenue graph takes the proverbial cake on where the money's coming from.
Console marketshare increased due to increased revenue from games like Wii Fit and Guitar Hero and the rise of cheaper budget DS titles. Actual console and handheld software units remain relatively the same. It also doesn't help when PSP software isn't selling.

Regarding COD:WaW Wii sales, you guys gotta remember Madden Wii sales remained static and yet EA is still pursuing the series on the Wii.
 

Alcibiades

Member
Compared to other mainstream shooters on Wii, World at War is probably doing better, but really would it have been a surprise to see a million in sales by now?

Part of not getting to such a mark was marketing and shipping flubs on the part of Activision (as well as making the game a B rather than A+ effort), but there had to have been other reasons. I suspect there are so many Wii games on shelves when people go buy games that even big-name titles can get lost in the shuffle. Also, there should have been more prominent discount promotions to give it some visibility.

And yeah, Call of Duty 4 not being on Wii was a major f*ck-up (it made $$$ when it could have made $$$$) in terms of having a guaranteed seller and money to rake in, but it didn't hurt Activision substantially. It did have an impact on World on War I'm sure, but in the end the most important thing is how WoW sold in spite of the what Activision did or didn't do.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
BishopLamont said:
Regarding COD:WaW Wii sales, you guys gotta remember Madden Wii sales remained static and yet EA is still pursuing the series on the Wii.
EA also said they were shifting focus to the Wii, then announced Battlefield:BC2 for the 360/PS3/PC. There's never any rhyme or reason to any of this.

EDIT - Plus Madden is always put on every platform under the sun, anyway. Heck, they put a GC version out until Madden 08.
 

markatisu

Member
Link said:
EA also said they were shifting focus to the Wii, then announced Battlefield:BC2 for the 360/PS3/PC. There's never any rhyme or reason to any of this.

EDIT - Plus Madden is always put on every platform under the sun, anyway. Heck, they put a GC version out until Madden 08.

Well maybe they need yet another year of Ubisoft and Activision making money on the Wii instead of them before they figure things out.
 
Link said:
EA also said they were shifting focus to the Wii, then announced Battlefield:BC2 for the 360/PS3/PC. There's never any rhyme or reason to any of this.

EDIT - Plus Madden is always put on every platform under the sun, anyway. Heck, they put a GC version out until Madden 08.

B:BC2 is most likely being made on the existing 360/PS3/PC engine, as seems likely given the quick turnaround. Some people seem to think that a company makes the decision to make a game on a system and a month later they've got a fully working engine with most of the game assests already ported over.
 

Pachael

Member
Link said:
I'm expecting them to skip to Wii for Modern Warfare 2.

I say it's a 50-50 chance. I don't think IW are spending resources on a Wii version of Modern Warfare 2, though Activision might have some other developer to port it to the Wii in time for Christmas.

It might even be called Call of Duty 5.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Die Squirrel Die said:
B:BC2 is most likely being made on the existing 360/PS3/PC engine, as seems likely given the quick turnaround. Some people seem to think that a company makes the decision to make a game on a system and a month later they've got a fully working engine with most of the game assests already ported over.
The game isn't due until 2010.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Alcibiades said:
Compared to other mainstream shooters on Wii, World at War is probably doing better, but really would it have been a surprise to see a million in sales by now?

Part not getting to such a mark was marketing and shipping flubs on the part of Activision (as well as making the game a B rather than A+ effort), but there had to have been other reasons. I suspect there are so many Wii games on shelves when people go buy games that even big-name titles can get lost in the shuffle. Also, there should have been more prominent discount promotions to give it some visibility.

And yeah, Call of Duty 4 not being on Wii was a major f*ck-up (it made $$$ when it could have made $$$$) in terms of having a guaranteed seller and money to rake in, but it didn't hurt Activision substantially. It did have an impact on World on War I'm sure, but in the end the most important thing is how WoW sold in spite of the what Activision did or didn't do.

Also, the Wii's version is gimped to fuck.

What's it at now, though? Last I heard was like 600k and slowly climbing. Not bad at all for a supposed "non-gamer" console. They need to try to get all the features into the next one, though. And if they just can't get a certain feature in, they need to replace it with something of equal value.
 
Jtyettis said:
That would mean PS3 COD:WaW sold 108k in January. So your best guess is then 1 title for the PS3 in the top 30 for the month. Sure would be nice if NPD could comment on that last missing platform title.
.

Im hoping its a GBA title, just for the hilarity.

Most probably PSP though (note the number of PSP titles in the top 20)


As for COD for wii, if I remember correctly, at launch many people were complaining that retail stores insisted that the wii version didnt exist.
 

jibblypop

Banned
Rhindle said:
$100 million in box office is a fantastic result for Slumdog Millionaire. $100 million in box office would be a dismal result for a new Star Wars movie.

What a terrible example that is.

The reason star wars needs to make more money is because the budget is so high to make that movie. The COD port on wii would cost LESS to make than the HD versions.
So in your example the wii version should be slumdog millionaire because of the relatively cheap development and nice sales.
 

Jammy

Banned
jamesinclair said:
Im hoping its a GBA title, just for the hilarity.

Most probably PSP though (note the number of PSP titles in the top 20)


As for COD for wii, if I remember correctly, at launch many people were complaining that retail stores insisted that the wii version didnt exist.

It's probably not a PSP title, as that's the only system out there that has worse software sales than the PS3. I'm willing to bet its a 360 title, and not the Mortal Kombat vs. DC game for PS3.
 
Jammy said:
It's probably not a PSP title, as that's the only system out there that has worse software sales than the PS3. I'm willing to bet its a 360 title, and not the Mortal Kombat vs. DC game for PS3.

The article speculates that its GHWT for PS2, and i think it is
 
Rhindle said:
Oh for pete's sakes. OF COURSE I was referring to its sales relative to the sales potential of the franchise, and relative to performance on other platforms. OF COURSE you don't look at numbers in a vacuum.

$100 million in box office is a fantastic result for Slumdog Millionaire. $100 million in box office would be a dismal result for a new Star Wars movie.

I would think that would be obvious, but clearly it isn't for some people.
Problem is, CoD Wii IS the Slumdog Millionaire in this scenario.
 

Rhindle

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Problem is, CoD Wii IS the Slumdog Millionaire in this scenario.
Link said:
Shh. Just grab the popcorn and let him keep going.
Er, what? How is it equivalent to Slumdog? COD became a no-name property the moment it got put on Wii?

I said nothing about budgets or return on investment. Star Wars doing $100M would be disappointing becuase its Star Wars, not because of the budget. If you don't like Star Wars, use Austin Powers or whatever. It's besides the point.

Any more straw man arguments tonight?
 
Rhindle said:
Er, what? How is it equivalent to Slumdog? COD became a no-name property the moment it got put on Wii?
CoD basically is a no-name property on Wii, though.

It has a following on PS3/360 because it had a really awesome game that came before it.

What did Wii owners have to go off of? A shitty port of a shitty game (CoD3).

To further your analogy:

Imagine if The Empire Strikes Back was released in Mexico for the first time, and the only Star Wars movie they had before that was Revenge of the Sith, and their version of Revenge of the Sith was chopped up, looked, and sounded worse. Would expectations for TESB be as high as they would be if the film was released in America, where the series already has a devoted following? Certainly not.
 

Vinnk

Member
Rhindle said:
I said nothing about budgets or return on investment.

We know. That's why it's funny.

So, Liberty City Stories on PS2 was a dismal failure? It's a GTA game (they sell millions, MILLIONS) and the PSP version was very successful (still is actually) so since the PS2 version sold way less than a third of that it's a dismal failure?

You said nothing about budgets or return on investment but that's the only stuff that is actually important to a business. I guess raw numbers are important too but only for gloating purposes.
 

Rhindle

Member
Aaron Strife said:
CoD basically is a no-name property on Wii, though.

It has a following on PS3/360 because it had a really awesome game that came before it.

What did Wii owners have to go off of? A shitty port of a shitty game (CoD3).

To further your analogy:

Imagine if The Empire Strikes Back was released in Mexico for the first time, and the only Star Wars movie they had before that was Revenge of the Sith, and their version of Revenge of the Sith was chopped up, looked, and sounded worse. Would expectations for TESB be as high as they would be if the film was released in America, where the series already has a devoted following? Certainly not.
As I said above, I fully agree that prior iterations of the franchise not appearing on the platform could be a factor. Unfortunately, the logical consequence is that publishers should continue to avoid the platform for existing franchises, so not a good result.

jibblypop said:
Well you should because that is all the publisher cares about when it comes to green-lighting new games.
Yes, I'm fully aware of that. In fact the main reason you're seeing so few Wii ports is that that cost of porting to the Wii is significantly higher than the incremental cost of multiplatform 360/PS3/PC development. Not really worth the effort of trying to explain that to you though.
 

SuperBonk

Member
donny2112 said:
What?!? We get to use CoD:WaW as a poster child again?!? Yes!

Let's review, again.

* CoD3 came out on both Wii and PS3, and they were either equal in sales or the Wii version was slightly ahead.
* CoD4 came out, sold millions of copies in the U.S., thus giving the base to the userbase, and there was no Wii version.
* CoD5 came out, sold similarly on the already established userbases of the PS3/360 in November, while the Wii version apparently wasn't even advertised.
* CoD5 Wii is advertised in December, and it sells #19 for the month and probably > 366K.
* CoD5 Wii continues on to sell @ #19 in January and is probably close to if not over 500K LTD by this point.

What can we conclude from this?

1) There should've been a CoD4 Wii version.
2) There should've been advertising for the Wii version of CoD5 at launch.

You wonder whether it was worth it for Activision? They sent a gimped port of one of their two big holiday titles to the system with the biggest userbase in the U.S. after snubbing the system last year, delayed advertising for weeks, and still came out at #19 in December (and now January). If they're not smiling, something is very wrong. :lol



Have review scores been relatively good? Sure. From those that are more knowledgeable on the contents than I, it is apparently missing a few of the modes from the PS360 version such as the Zombie Mode (which is apparently a pretty popular part of the game), though.

Edit: Beaten. :)

I don't really understand the point you're making here other than porting games to other consoles increases sales. I mean, I could use a similar argument to justify a Metal Gear Solid 4 release on the 360. I understand that the Wii has low development costs and porting games to it is cheap, but by that logic, every single game developed for 360 and PS3 should be ported to Wii.

I guess that would be a valid argument, but specifying the case of COD5 confuses me. I also don't understand why COD4 puts the "base" in "userbase" when you acknowledge that COD3 was already released for the Wii...and made by the same developer as COD5. As for your "conclusions," sure, there should have been a Wii version of COD4 to maximize profitablity; but I don't think Activision is all that unhappy about the 10M+ sales it's gotten from the PS3/360.
 

Arde5643

Member
SuperBonk said:
I don't really understand the point you're making here other than porting games to other consoles increases sales. I mean, I could use a similar argument to justify a Metal Gear Solid 4 release on the 360. I understand that the Wii has low development costs and porting games to it is cheap, but by that logic, every single game developed for 360 and PS3 should be ported to Wii.

I guess that would be a valid argument, but specifying the case of COD5 confuses me. I also don't understand why COD4 puts the "base" in "userbase" when you acknowledge that COD3 was already released for the Wii...and made by the same developer as COD5. As for your "conclusions," sure, there should have been a Wii version of COD4 to maximize profitablity; but I don't think Activision is all that unhappy about the 10M+ sales it's gotten from the PS3/360.
Because that's dumping money on the table - look at how Harmonix/MTV have screwed themselves up by releasing RB1 and RB2 late to the Wii ecosystem.

At this point in time, the Wii base is solidly entrenched with Guitar Hero, so even if RB series managed to garner pretty good sales, it will never ever surpass Guitar Hero or even come close to it since it doesn't have the Wii base.
 

MotherFan

Member
Rhindle said:
Any more straw man arguments tonight?

Only if you post more.

The only thing you can say is that the wii has a higher userbase and that cod is a popular franchise. Of course, you are right about both. But the things you discount are the fact that publishers only care about profit. They don't consider it a failure when they make a cheaper port, when they have the most important title in the series entirely missing from the platform and when no one could find the damn game at launch (and believe me I looked). The only way they could have done a shittier job at releasing it is if they had no multiplayer at all.

Lastly, don't forget the steaming pile of crap that was the wii version of cod:3 which may have scared any sensible person from buying this. So, all in all, these are great sales and the game is creeping up to a million units. I don't know if CoD:MW2 will be on wii. It should by these sales unless somehow Infinity Ward has the ability to say no, in which case it does not get done or some other studio does it. Why infinity ward would not want to do it, other than pride, is beyond me.

Edit: After reading your last reply it's obvious you don't know anything about business. Wii games don't cost nearly as much to make as an HD game. It does not have to sell alot to be worth it. That's why this is a GOOD sign. How you came to the conclusion that it is a bad sign is unbelievable.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Rhindle said:
As I said above, I fully agree that prior iterations of the franchise not appearing on the platform could be a factor. Unfortunately, the logical consequence is that publishers should continue to avoid the platform for existing franchises, so not a good result.
Yeah, it would make perfect sense to just not have those extra 500-600k (and counting) in sales.

Yes, I'm fully aware of that. In fact the main reason you're seeing so few Wii ports is that that cost of porting to the Wii is significantly higher than the incremental cost of multiplatform 360/PS3/PC development. Not really worth the effort of trying to explain that to you though.
I... what?
 

SuperBonk

Member
I just don't understand singling out COD5. It seems like not porting any game to the Wii is leaving money on the table.

And please stop bringing up the GH/RB example. It always saddens me to see World Tour performing better than RB2 when it is just a massive turd compared to it. And yes, I will keep mentioning this.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
SuperBonk said:
I just don't understand singling out COD5. It seems like not porting any game to the Wii is leaving money on the table.
Well, yeah, pretty much. It's the market leader.

And please stop bringing up the GH/RB example. It always saddens me to see World Tour performing better than RB2 when it is just a massive turd compared to it. And yes, I will keep mentioning this.
Blame EA for so poorly mishandling RB on the Wii.
 

MotherFan

Member
Link said:
Yeah, it would make perfect sense to just not have those extra 500-600k (and counting) in sales.

I... what?


duck.jpg
 

Arde5643

Member
SuperBonk said:
I just don't understand singling out COD5. It seems like not porting any game to the Wii is leaving money on the table.
Well, there are times when it's not worth it to down-port something to the Wii. Dead Rising comes to mind as well as probably titles like Fallout or Morrowind series.

SuperBonk said:
And please stop bringing up the GH/RB example. It always saddens me to see World Tour performing better than RB2 when it is just a massive turd compared to it. And yes, I will keep mentioning this.
Blame stupid Harmonix/MTV for this - thanks to their stupid decision, Rock Band will never have the mindshare it needs to wipe out stupid Guitar Hero, unless somehow ActiBlizz decides to do something equally as stupid as Harmonix/MTV with Guitar Hero.
I doubt it though, they've been handling the Guitar Hero series very well on the Wii as much as sucky Guitar Hero is.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Arde5643 said:
Blame stupid Harmonix/MTV for this - thanks to their stupid decision, Rock Band will never have the mindshare it needs to wipe out stupid Guitar Hero, unless somehow ActiBlizz decides to do something equally as stupid as Harmonix/MTV with Guitar Hero.
I doubt it though, they've been handling the Guitar Hero series very well on the Wii as much as sucky Guitar Hero is.
Actually, GH: Metallica is going to be released on the Wii two months after the HD versions. Good job, Activision!
 
Rhindle said:
As I said above, I fully agree that prior iterations of the franchise not appearing on the platform could be a factor. Unfortunately, the logical consequence is that publishers should continue to avoid the platform for existing franchises, so not a good result.
Why? This makes no sense. Continuing the series on Wii would help to establish the brand on that console, and win even more sales.

That, and Activision is a business, they operate solely to make money. I doubt they care about this petty console wars shit. If the Wii version turns a profit, there's no reason for them to not do it.

To put this into historical context, Guitar Hero III was the first Guitar Hero for Wii, and underperformed against the 360 version. However, thanks to the presence of Guitar Hero 3 on Wii to begin with, it was able to become successful with Wii owners, and the Wii versions of Aerosmith and World Tour ended up leading the pack.

Lego Star Wars is another example - tossed on Wii, met with good reception, and eventually, Lego games began to perform best on Wii.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Aaron Strife said:
Why? This makes no sense. Continuing the series on Wii would help to establish the brand on that console, and win even more sales.

That, and Activision is a business, they operate solely to make money. I doubt they care about this petty console wars shit. If the Wii version turns a profit, there's no reason for them to not do it.
But it sells less! Why bother?!
 

SuperBonk

Member
Link said:
Well, yeah, pretty much. It's the market leader.

Blame EA for so poorly mishandling RB on the Wii.
...yeah I think we all know that. Perhaps I should phrase my thoughts better. Singling out COD5 doesn't make sense to me because I think there are better examples to prove the point. COD5 is a smashing success even without the Wii, just as COD4 was a smashing success without the Wii. Saying there should have been a Wii version is like saying there should have been a PS3 version of Left 4 Dead (and I don't really see this argument...ever).

As for your 2nd point, I think I'd rather blame Neversoft for making a terrible game and the people that bought it.

Edit: stealth edited.
 

avatar299

Banned
The issue isn't with Call of Duty 5 on Wii being a success. it's can games follow that kind of success. Will the Conduit hit that same audience and go over 400K during the summer? Will Red Steel 2?

Cod 5 Wii could have sold well just because of the holiday rush. Is there an actual market there?
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
SuperBonk said:
...yeah I think we all know that. Perhaps I should phrase my thoughts better. Singling out COD5 doesn't make sense to me because I think there are better examples to prove the point. COD5 is a smashing success even without the Wii, just as COD4 was a smashing success without the Wii. Saying there should have been a Wii version is like saying there should have been a PS3 version of Left 4 Dead (and I don't really see this argument...ever).
So they should just leave money on the table because it already sold "good enough"? I'm sure they'd love to have you as a CEO.

As for your 2nd point, I think I'd rather blame Neversoft for making a terrible game and Wii owners for buying it.
Personal opinion aside, how is this a Wii-specific problem?
 

SuperBonk

Member
Link said:
So they should just leave money on the table because it already sold "good enough"? I'm sure they'd love to have you as a CEO.

Personal opinion aside, how is this a Wii-specific problem?
Are you incapable of reading the last sentence?

I'm sure they'd love you as a literate person lolololol

Hint: the 2nd part of that post was a joke just like it is in this one
 
avatar299 said:
The issue isn't with Call of Duty 5 on Wii being a success. it's can games follow that kind of success. Will the Conduit hit that same audience and go over 400K during the summer? Will Red Steel 2?

Cod 5 Wii could have sold well just because of the holiday rush. Is there an actual market there?
You're right, third parties need to continue testing Wii owners.

Jesus Christ, give it up.
 

Arde5643

Member
avatar299 said:
The issue isn't with Call of Duty 5 on Wii being a success. it's can games follow that kind of success. Will the Conduit hit that same audience and go over 400K during the summer? Will Red Steel 2?

Cod 5 Wii could have sold well just because of the holiday rush. Is there an actual market there?
So are we starting to discount any brand games now? Even if they're from third parties?

Seriously, I'm starting to lose count on how many rules have been established to discount software sales on Nintendo platforms. :lol
 

Rhindle

Member
Link said:
Yeah, it would make perfect sense to just not have those extra 500-600k (and counting) in sales.
Last post on this topic, I'm getting tired of repeating myself.

As I said above, Activision is undoubtedly going to turn a profit on 500K+ sales of COD. The point is that if its relative performance on the platform is an indication of how other franchises will sell, then most franchises that don't have COD's mega sales status, will NOT make money.

You mentioned Battlefield: Bad Company. Fine, that sold what - 25% of COD4's level? Less probably. EA would NOT make money on 125K-150K of Wii sales, even after you throw in overseas sales. Hence, you won't get a Wii port, and EA is entirely justified in not developing a Wii port.
 
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