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[jvm]

Well, the official NPD thread fizzled a bit. I don't have a ton of extra stuff to show at this moment, but I hope there are a few things of interest.

Direct link to Gamasutra article about January 2009 NPD.

Things of possible interest to sales-agers: Nintendo's marketshare Jan 2008/Jan 2009, CoD4 vs. WaW figures, and average retail prices for HD consoles (PS3 = $407, Xbox 360 = $268).

One graph as a sample:

There is one extra game data point hidden in the article somewhere (never directly referenced, I don't think). ;^) You guys will spot it. I have a couple of other data points that I may post as a news item later this week.

As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

 

[Sushen]

Well, the official NPD thread fizzled a bit. I don't have a ton of extra stuff to show at this moment, but I hope there are a few things of interest.

One graph as a sample:

While it shows a better number for PS3, it's no change of direction in any stretch of imagination. Well, I'm impressed that CoD WaW somehow managed to match the total number for CoD4. Who said that WWII shooters are dead genre or only Infinity Ward can make CoD games?

 

[Visualante]

No PC Call of Duty data?

 

[Karma]

Going by COD the PS3 is performing below its user base percentage for software.

 

[DogWelder]

"Microsoft sold over 77,000 Xbox 360 systems during the month, which should be considered quite strong."

I believe you forgot the "per week" part.

 

[Tron 2.0]

CoD:WaW on the Wii sold > 366,000 in December alone. Color me impressed.

 

[adelante]

That bar graph is probably indicative of how 360 owners are torn between WAW and other heavyhitter shooters like L4D and GeOW2

 

[CrunchinJelly]

That bar graph is probably indicative of how 360 owners are torn between WAW and other heavyhitter shooters like L4D and GeOW2

Or that they're still playing CoD4, like the weekly LIVE stats show.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

The interesting thing is that the PS3's install base must have been much much higher for WaW's release compared to CoD4s (remember how low PS3 sales in 2007 were), yet the sales are barely higher at all.

 

[markatisu]

Great article jvm

this says loads to me

 

[Rlan]

COD4 also had an additional 5 days of sales compared to WAW didn't it? Or was that lopped off by the end of January?

 

[jvm]

"Microsoft sold over 77,000 Xbox 360 systems during the month, which should be considered quite strong."

I believe you forgot the "per week" part.

Fixed!

Thanks!

 

[FrankT]

That would mean PS3 COD:WaW sold 108k in January. So your best guess is then 1 title for the PS3 in the top 30 for the month. Sure would be nice if NPD could comment on that last missing platform title.

Or that they're still playing CoD4, like the weekly LIVE stats show.

Could be a little bit of both. Modern Warfare 2 numbers likely will not look anything like WaW numbers if I had to guess today. Then again Activision had to heavily discount it in December to reach these numbers as well.

 

[Htown]

Typo, page 6.


"The dearth of PlayStation software in the top 30 a danger sign for Sony."

Think you forgot an "is" in there. A little thing, but that always bothers me. Great article, by the way.

 

[jvm]

That would mean COD:WaW sold 108k in January. So your best guess is then 1 title for the PS3 in the top 30 for the month. Sure would be nice if NPD could comment on that last missing platform title.

Ding! Well done. You'll notice it's also in the top 20 chart I put in there.

 

[jvm]

Typo, page 6.


"The dearth of PlayStation software in the top 30 a danger sign for Sony."

Think you forgot an "is" in there. A little thing, but that always bothers me. Great article, by the way.

Fixed! Thanks for pointing it out (and the compliment)!

 

[FrankT]

Ding! Well done. You'll notice it's also in the top 20 chart I put in there.

Ah is that the "hidden" data point then? Anyhow too bad it wasn't a little lower so we could get better estimates out of the 20.

 

[jvm]

Ah is that the "hidden" data point then? Anyhow too bad it wasn't a little lower so we could get better estimates out of the 20.

Yep. I was expecting it to be lower and that's part of why I asked for it. Regrettably that has to be done before the top 20 comes out. (I submit my request, generally, between 1AM and 6AM Friday morning after the Thursday release and then the top 20 comes out around 2PM on Friday afternoon. That's the disconnect.)

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Oh, and thanks for doing this jvm. These articles, along with Mama R.'s gifs, are the consistent highlights of the NPD releases.

Seems we got very few leaks of non-top 10 numbers. I wonder if it just that January was boring with few releases that anyone cared about or if NPD is cracking down.

 

[Musashi Wins!]

The interesting thing is that the PS3's install base must have been much much higher for WaW's release compared to CoD4s (remember how low PS3 sales in 2007 were), yet the sales are barely higher at all.

Yea, it was pretty beaten to death even in the NPD thread that no one buys PS3 software, not even the people who own the console.

Just me. And a couple of the crazy motherfuckers in the KillZone thread.

 

[Pachael]

What struck me was the console v handheld wars - from the MC charts the latter is gaining while from NPD the former's going better. The revenue graph takes the proverbial cake on where the money's coming from.

 

[AColdDay]

jvm, are you an armchair analyst, or do you also do it professionally? Not that I'm insinuating that the quality of your work isn't professional (it's great), but I would imagine that someone with formal business education doing work like this, rather than an all-purpose games industry writer.

I hope this didn't sound insulting, as it is actually a compliment.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

Yea, it was pretty beaten to death even in the NPD thread that no one buys PS3 software, not even the people who own the console.

Just me. And a couple of the crazy motherfuckers in the KillZone thread.

Well this data is a bit more robust than looking at the number of titles placing in the top 20. Still it is just 1 game and it's sequel. The fact that Resistance came out just prior or even people deciding to wait for KZ2 could have lowered the number of people that wanted a new FPS.

Still I can't shake the feeling that software sales aren't keeping up with the much better hardware sales.

 

[Rhindle]

Well this data is a bit more robust than looking at the number of titles placing in the top 20. Still it is just 1 game and it's sequel. The fact that Resistance came out just prior or even people deciding to wait for KZ2 could have lowered the number of people that wanted a new FPS.

Still I can't shake the feeling that software sales aren't keeping up with the much better hardware sales.

COD is the exception rather than the rule.

Generally speaking, PS3 versions of "big" games (GTA, Madden) have equal or higher attach ratios on PS3 than on 360; whereas smaller titles sell poorly.

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

 

[Cipherr]

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

You should probably read the article....

 

[ZeoVGM]

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

Uh, what dismal sales, Mr. I Don't Read Articles?

 

[stuminus3]

I don't get it. Is this what they meant by Nintendo going third party? I'm confused. Maybe a little scared.

EDIT: Quoting this post in because everyone else around me is commenting on it and I'm a bit sheep like that.

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

Uh... :lol

 

[timetokill]

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

:lol I suggest you back out of the thread, nice and slow.

 

[Rhindle]

Uh, what dismal sales, Mr. I Don't Read Articles?

I read the article. IS there anything in particular you would liketo point out to me? To mitigate the fact that it sold far less than even the PS3 version despite having 3 times the installed base? Or do we now consider that a good result for Wii sales?

 

[AColdDay]

I read the article. IS there anything in particular you would liketo point out to me? To mitigate the fact that it sold far less than even the PS3 version despite having 3 times the installed base? Or do we now consider that a good result for Wii sales?

:lol Maybe read through, one more time?

 

[ZeoVGM]

I read the article. IS there anything in particular you would liketo point out to me? To mitigate the fact that it sold far less than even the PS3 version despite having 3 times the installed base? Or do we now consider that a good result for Wii sales?

Oh, I dunno, probably the part of the article that says sales were good and that Activision will now definitely want to port the next CoD as well?

Nice try though.

 

[Pachael]

After taking in the fact that COD WaW Wii is #19, and factoring about 336k in December, I'd say that the title's sold somewhere between 400k to 500k.

Whether that's a good return for Activision is up to the audience, but I think it was a worthwhile investment. Acti's port-whoring has delivered some returns at least.

 

[titiklabingapat]

COD is the exception rather than the rule.

Generally speaking, PS3 versions of "big" games (GTA, Madden) have equal or higher attach ratios on PS3 than on 360; whereas smaller titles sell poorly.

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

Noone considers it dismal.

It is more than enough to justify if not encourage future COD ports of the mainline title.

 

[Ulairi]

After taking in the fact that COD WaW Wii is #19, and factoring about 336k in December, I'd say that the title's sold somewhere between 400k to 500k.

Whether that's a good return for Activision is up to the audience, but I think it was a worthwhile investment. Acti's port-whoring has delivered some returns at least.

That's really good numbers for Activision for a C-grade port.

 

[Rhindle]

After taking in the fact that COD WaW Wii is #19, and factoring about 336k in December, I'd say that the title's sold somewhere between 400k to 500k.

Whether that's a good return for Activision is up to the audience, but I think it was a worthwhile investment. Acti's port-whoring has delivered some returns at least.

There's no question that it will sell enough for Activision to break even. It doesn't change the fact that sales were dismal compared to the other platforms. COD is probably the biggest franchise of the moment and Activision is just barely breaking even on the Wii - that's NOT good news for people wanting publishers to port more traditional games to the platform. If the same ratios hold for other games, just about everything else would lose money.

That's really good numbers for Activision for a C-grade port.

Except that it's actually a good port, by all accounts.

 

[cr_blah_blah]

Oh, I dunno, probably the part of the article that says sales were good and that Activision will now definitely want to port the next CoD as well?

Nice try though.

Are we now acting surprised that a major multiplatform franchise will be ported to the Wii? It sold about 400k with no Wii-specific advertisement and was a decent port. The number isn't great but how fucking shocking Activision would want it on another system.

 

[Chumly]

After taking in the fact that COD WaW Wii is #19, and factoring about 336k in December, I'd say that the title's sold somewhere between 400k to 500k.

Whether that's a good return for Activision is up to the audience, but I think it was a worthwhile investment. Acti's port-whoring has delivered some returns at least.

At the very minimum CODWii sold 366,000 units in december. Tack on another 70-90k for January and maybe another 50-100k for November (200k between PC,Wii,DS with the Wii probably taking the majority) and your gonna have at LEAST 500k in sales.

 

[AColdDay]

After taking in the fact that COD WaW Wii is #19, and factoring about 336k in December, I'd say that the title's sold somewhere between 400k to 500k.

Whether that's a good return for Activision is up to the audience, but I think it was a worthwhile investment. Acti's port-whoring has delivered some returns at least.

This is a good point that gets lost on a lot of people. There are so many games that are released each week now. Even if the sales of the Wii version didn't surpass the PS3s, that doesn't mean that it didn't garner money. Look at it this way, you have four projects and these are the projected sales and profits:
Project 1: 1 million units sold with a $2,000,000 net profit
Project 2: 10 million units sold with a $500 net loss
Project 3: 500k units sold with a $50,000 net profit
Project 4: 500k units sold with a 10$ net profit

Which of these projects would a company pursue with unlimited resources (e.g. Pursuing one wouldn't take you away from another)? Projects 1,3 and 4. All projects that you can eck out a profit, regardless of how it looks compared to other projects sales or profits, is a good business venture. Do you know the success ratio of developing a profitable project? Ask the developers of Haze, Lair and Psychonauts if they could of produced those projects and gotten even the tiniest profit.

Today a game either bombs or is wildly successful, there is becoming less and less middle ground and that is why making profitable investments with your time and resources should be of paramount importance to dev studios.

 

[Link]

There's no question that it will sell enough for Activision to break even. It doesn't change the fact that sales were dismal compared to the other platforms. COD is probably the biggest franchise of the moment and Activision is just barely breaking even on the Wii - that's NOT good news for people wanting publishers to port more traditional games to the platform. If the same ratios hold for other games, just about everything else would lose money.

Considering the Wii didn't get CoD4, which pretty much sent the series into the stratosphere, the sales aren't bad at all. Obviously most of the userbase was already elsewhere, so I'm not sure what you were expecting. More than Activision, it seems.

Except that it's actually a good port, by all accounts.

It was missing a lot of modes, actually.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

This is a good point that gets lost on a lot of people. There are so many games that are released each week now. Even if the sales of the Wii version didn't surpass the PS3s, that doesn't mean that it didn't garner money. Look at it this way, you have four projects and these are the projected sales and profits:
Project 1: 1 million units sold with a $2,000,000 net profit
Project 2: 10 million units sold with a $500 net loss
Project 3: 500k units sold with a $50,000 net profit
Project 4: 500k units sold with a 10$ net profit

Which of these projects would a company pursue with unlimited resources (e.g. Pursuing one wouldn't take you away from another)? Projects 1,2 and 4. All projects that you can eck out a profit, regardless of how it looks compared to other projects sales or profits, is a good business venture. Do you know the success ratio of developing a profitable project? Ask the developers of Haze, Lair and Psychonauts if they could of produced those projects and gotten even the tiniest profit.

Today a game either bombs or is wildly successful, there is becoming less and less middle ground and that is why making profitable investments with your time and resources should be of paramount importance to dev studios.

I'm not really a business person but I doubt this is really true (even apart from the fact it should be 1,3 and 4 not 1,2 and 4). From a business perspective opportunity costs are important. I mean investing millins of dollars for a $10 profit would be totally pointless unless I couldn't find someone to sell me a .1% interest rate CD or US bond.

Not to mention the risks involved.

 

[yoopoo]

It was missing a lot of modes, actually.

Also its currently the ugliest game of all time.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

CoD:WaW on the Wii sold > 366,000 in December alone. Color me impressed.

Really? Last I heard that game was bombing. Pretty good news.

 

[jrricky]

There's no question that it will sell enough for Activision to break even. It doesn't change the fact that sales were dismal compared to the other platforms. COD is probably the biggest franchise of the moment and Activision is just barely breaking even on the Wii - that's NOT good news for people wanting publishers to port more traditional games to the platform. If the same ratios hold for other games, just about everything else would lose money.

:lol Dude, let me repost what you said:

The real story with COD WaW is the dismal sales of the Wii version.

You didnt compare it to anything, you just outright said its 'dismal'.

Also, any game that passes 300-400 K on the Wii in one territory more than breaks even.

 

[Alcibiades]

World at War for Wii might have sold more if Activision shipped more copies for their initial shipment... some stores seemed to not have enough stock.

Rhindle's makes a valid point. Although it'll probably pass 1 million in sales (U.S.) when all is said and done, it pales to how the other versions did.

That said, as good as the game was, it was still flawed... Key multiplayer features were missing and there was no GCN/Classic Controller functionality.

Edit: It would be interesting, JVM, for you to create a chart with Wii sales of World at War if you ever get them, just to make it visually explicit how World at War surpassing Modern Warfare on home consoles is reliant on the availability of the Wii SKU.

 

[Cipherr]

At the very minimum CODWii sold 366,000 units in december. Tack on another 70-90k for January and maybe another 50-100k for November (200k between PC,Wii,DS with the Wii probably taking the majority) and your gonna have at LEAST 500k in sales.

In one territory.

In only 2 months of sales (its not done yet).

Without having the boon of CoD4 on the console. (The most important entry, and the game thats driving the WaW purchases on the PS3/360)

With these type of variables in the mix, noone gives a damn about how it did compared to the other two unarguably superior versions. We are talking about a SKU thats going to pass 1m units sold. 'Dismal' doesnt belong in a discussion about a game doing numbers like that unless a million wouldnt break even, and thats not even remotely the case.

Theres really no discussion to be had here, the game is a success at the bare minimum. Assigning the word "dismal" to it is the most ridiculous thing in this thread, hence all of the quotes and :lol 's.

 

[titiklabingapat]

There's no question that it will sell enough for Activision to break even. It doesn't change the fact that sales were dismal compared to the other platforms. COD is probably the biggest franchise of the moment and Activision is just barely breaking even on the Wii - that's NOT good news for people wanting publishers to port more traditional games to the platform. If the same ratios hold for other games, just about everything else would lose money.

Except that it's actually a good port, by all accounts.

It wasn't advertised until December and the port omitted a few essential parts of the game. There was no Capture the Flag!

 

[timetokill]

Rhindle's makes a valid point.

No, not really.
The game has sold well on the Wii. Its sales cannot be called "dismal." Activision has made a tidy profit on it, and that was what they expected.

You are absolutely insane if you think that Activision was expecting the game to outsell the PS3/Xbox 360 versions.

1) It's a port
2) It's missing modes and features
3) It's a "core" title. Any multi-platform owners are going to get it on the HD console.

Its sales are quite strong considering the environment. What Activision, EA, Capcom, etc. are starting to do now is recognize and cultivate the core gamers on the Wii that do not have a HD console but are still interested in core games. Contrary to popular belief, this group does exist.

But when you take into account the profile of the theoretical "CoD: WaW player," it's a 16-34 year-old male with years of gaming experience, owns a HDTV and has plenty of disposable income that he likes to spend on electronics and gaming consoles.

This game was an afterthought for the Wii, so for it to sell so well and to be so profitable is a boon for Activision. "Dismal" doesn't even factor into the equation, regardless of Rhindle's backpedaling to say "oh it's dismal COMPARED TO the other consoles." Because that only makes sense in a complete vacuum.

 

[donny2112]

There's no question that it will sell enough for Activision to break even.

What?!? We get to use CoD:WaW as a poster child again?!? Yes!

Let's review, again.

* CoD3 came out on both Wii and PS3, and they were either equal in sales or the Wii version was slightly ahead.
* CoD4 came out, sold millions of copies in the U.S., thus giving the base to the userbase, and there was no Wii version.
* CoD5 came out, sold similarly on the already established userbases of the PS3/360 in November, while the Wii version apparently wasn't even advertised.
* CoD5 Wii is advertised in December, and it sells #19 for the month and probably > 366K.
* CoD5 Wii continues on to sell @ #19 in January and is probably close to if not over 500K LTD by this point.

What can we conclude from this?

1) There should've been a CoD4 Wii version.
2) There should've been advertising for the Wii version of CoD5 at launch.

You wonder whether it was worth it for Activision? They sent a gimped port of one of their two big holiday titles to the system with the biggest userbase in the U.S. after snubbing the system last year, delayed advertising for weeks, and still came out at #19 in December (and now January). If they're not smiling, something is very wrong. :lol

Except that it's actually a good port, by all accounts.

Have review scores been relatively good? Sure. From those that are more knowledgeable on the contents than I, it is apparently missing a few of the modes from the PS360 version such as the Zombie Mode (which is apparently a pretty popular part of the game), though.

Edit: Beaten.

 

[Rhindle]

Oh for pete's sakes. OF COURSE I was referring to its sales relative to the sales potential of the franchise, and relative to performance on other platforms. OF COURSE you don't look at numbers in a vacuum.

$100 million in box office is a fantastic result for Slumdog Millionaire. $100 million in box office would be a dismal result for a new Star Wars movie.

I would think that would be obvious, but clearly it isn't for some people.

 

[AColdDay]

I'm not really a business person but I doubt this is really true (even apart from the fact it should be 1,3 and 4 not 1,2 and 4). From a business perspective opportunity costs are important. I mean investing millins of dollars for a $10 profit would be totally pointless unless I couldn't find someone to sell me a .1% interest rate CD or US bond.

Not to mention the risks involved.

Thanks for catching my mistake, you are right it was supposed to be 1,3 and 4. The example I used ignored opportunity costs and weighted cost of capital for sake of simplicity by stating that the company had unlimited resources and could theoretically invest in all four projects without hindrance. I was trying to illustrate that copious units sold doesn't always mean that the project was successful or that the opposite is true.

You said that you could invest the money in a CD, but I never stated the amount of money that would have to be invested in project 4. If the costs involved in development and distribution were 5 dollars, then you doubled your investment. I doubt there is any financial instrument in the world where you can get a guaranteed 100% return on investment.

Obviously, this is a wildly unlikely case (a five dollar project selling 500,000 units and generating a 10 dollar profit) that is only for illustrative purposes and would never be encountered in the real world, but add some zeroes to it if you want to make it seem more realistic.

For example, cost of development and distribution is 5,000,000 instead of 5. Project reaps 10,000,000 dollars instead of 10. All that changed were zeroes and maybe now you can see the point I am trying to illustrate. Businesses will always pursue projects that they believe will be reasonably profitable, regardless of the degree of profitability.

Edit: Rhindle, I understand your position, but without knowing how much it cost to develop the Wii version, you can't say with authority that it's sales are dismal. However, in your favor, without the same knowledge, no one can say that it is a success, either.