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January 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
Baki
Member
Vinci said:
The DS SW is at 688M units worldwide and is currently at over 120M worldwide. When the PS2 was at 100M worldwide, it had racked up 775M software units. Now I'm not saying that DS SW is poor, but relative to its userbase and the rate at which new users are coming, they are poor. This is not Nintendo's fault, the 2nd hand market is flourishing in the US. Not to mention it is very easy to pirate games on the DS.
Source 1
Source 2
PS: used WW numbers. So much easier to find. :lol
Baki said:
Wait, so you are comparing the handheld to a console, and not only that, but making sure to compare said handheld to not only a console, but the single greatest performing console of all TIME and then when its slightly below the record breaking pace of the best console of all TIME you call it 'poor'.
Yeah Im sorry bro, but your just wrong.
charlequin
Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
You basically only see the scrupulous and dedicated types like jvm actually bothering with this, because as stump alluded to, NPD isn't very responsive to these requests. If you suddenly need data for a 24-hour deadline, chartz numbers are easier (and who cares about accuracy anyway?)
If they were an even remotely legitimate outlet you would in fact see this, but as it is you get 10,000 idiot fanboys trumpeting some imaginary victory on the back of literally 100% invented numbers for every person who's able to comment on some tiny nugget of truth somehow extracted from chartz's output.
Baki
Member
Taurus said:
That is my point!!!!
Handheld market is plagued by piracy and second hand software sales. The userbase generally expects cheaper games.
Puncture said:
The point I am trying to make is that even the DS is being affected by used game sales. Its a real problem in the handheld market and it is why the PSP software is doing so poorly. I mean, if you look at the 2009 chart. A 5 year old game is still charting! This is because people want the old gems + want them cheap. These leads to less new software being bought and loads of 2nd hand software being bought.
And to be completely fair, I used the PS2 because it is the only console with the userbase and selling power that the DS has.
Fularu said:
Wait...What? Who are you?
Oh and if you are going to excuse me of being a "troll". Bring some damn proof. If not, I suggest you be on your way.
Celine said:
I never claimed that the PSP had a better tie ratio. I was just explaining why you generally don't see PSP games charting. Also like I said before, DS has a more active userbase due to a larger influx of new owners. This leads to better tie ratios as oppossed to a platform which is declining (HW wise).
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Baki said:
Well, to give some colour commentary here, NPD called them false and then launched into a diatribe about how leaking numbers is bad and people busted leaking numbers will get in trouble... and then promptly did absolutely nothing to correct the false numbers in any way so I think the more literate among us are capable of decoding what's going on.
Verbatim from the mouth of DR. DAVID RILEY, GALACTIC DIRECTOR, NPD GROUP:
oh good that he cleared up the numbers a wron...
velvet_nitemare
Member
If only the US would have multiple sales trackers that release numbers often like Japan does. No need for weekly chart, monthly will do just fine.
Three times have a i bought PSPs. I am on my third now. I have sold my first two, to later buy a new one.
The thing is that when you do not have a portable, you really want one. But once you have one, you find that you do not play on the portable that much. I really think most people have the same experience. Especially with the PSPs slick look and good multimedia opportunities. Especially for kids and teenagers who maybe do not have the resources for a iPhone or iPod.
The thing is that when you do not have a portable, you really want one. But once you have one, you find that you do not play on the portable that much. I really think most people have the same experience. Especially with the PSPs slick look and good multimedia opportunities. Especially for kids and teenagers who maybe do not have the resources for a iPhone or iPod.
AdventureRacing
Member
The easiest and most effective way to compare the software selling capability of 2 systems is simply to compare their total software sales vs the time on the market. I feel fairly confident that if you use this measure than the DS would be selling more software than any other console in the history of games. I'm not sure i would describe that as "poor".
And with this sentence you have already proven yourself wrong. The fact that the only legitimate comparison to the DS is the best selling console of all time (in terms of hardware and software) shows just how well the DS is selling.
Actually if you read JJsloans analysis in the npd threads you would realise that selling hardware at a very fast rate leads to worse tie ratios.
Baki said:
And with this sentence you have already proven yourself wrong. The fact that the only legitimate comparison to the DS is the best selling console of all time (in terms of hardware and software) shows just how well the DS is selling.
Baki said:
Actually if you read JJsloans analysis in the npd threads you would realise that selling hardware at a very fast rate leads to worse tie ratios.
Stumpokapow said:
Did this happen of GAF? If it's in the big Jan 2010 thread I can't find it.
I appreciate the work jvm does, but this month's article is pretty worthless. There's no new analysis b/c there is no new info. That Capcom earnings report is a joke. GAF may need to rethink the VGC stuff.
Baki
Member
Celine said:
Baki said:
If you look at what I originally said, my comment was in relation to the rate the DS hardware is selling and current install base. Like I said before, DS software is not poor but for the rate it is selling at and the current install base it already has. One would expect better software sales.
HOWEVER as you have pointed out. This is the par of the course for handhelds. Which leads on to the point that I am trying to make.
That handheld software is generally much more affected by used game market due to the nature of the owners.
AdventureRacing said:
Wow...Put down the pitchfork guys. I never said the DS was selling poorly. On the contrary, I was praising the HW sales.
Baki said:
Oh I would if the search function wasn't disabled and I'm definitely not going to go through most of the latest MC threads to point it out.
But go on, it's sure amusing
Edit : also I make a clear distinction between a troll and a fanboy, I don't believe you're a troll!
With that said, enough with the off topic
boiled goose
good with gravy
Baki said:
You cant really claim that.
You dont know the sales of used games.
AdventureRacing
Member
Baki said:
AdventureRacing said:
Again i would point you to this. Selling hardware at a quick rate leads to lower tie ratios not the other way around.
Baki said:
Really?
Baki said:
You were trying to say that the amount of software the DS sells is poor compared to the amount of hardware it sells.
Not to mention you are making jumps in your logic. Somehow the fact that handhelds have slightly worse attach rates means that the handheld market is plagued by people who just want to buy used games. This simply isn't true, walk into any store that sells games and by far the biggest used section is generally PS2 games.
My theory on why attach rates are poorer for handhelds is because they tend to be for one person whereas consoles are for whole households. So for each handheld you generally only have one person buying games whereas for consoles you can have multiple people buying games.
Regardless of all this the DS is going to end selling nearly as much software as any other console we have seen. Any discussion that tries to paint that in anyway as poor is a bogus one.
Expect based on what past experience ? console ?Baki said:
Consoles offer a different experience from handhelds and this lead to the second part of my post.
I don't believe it is the used market and the piracy that keep handhelds software sales at a lower level than consoles ( with similar hardware sales) also because used games and piracy are rampant even on consoles.Baki said:
I think we should search the cause of this historical trend on the different experience offered by handhelds.
An experience generally based on replayability and quick gameplay so you can use them on the move and multiple times.
Thus if most consumers usually stay at home probably they tend to prefer ( and buy for ) an home experience while if they are often on the go they likely would spend money on portable software ( no wonder handhelds are so popular in Japan
).Edit:
That's a good point.AdventureRacing said:
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Celine said:
The DS is very impressive with its handheld console attach rates.
charlequin
Banned
squicken said:
So we can... do analysis of... some totally made-up numbers? :lol
On an entirely unrelated note hey guys I'm launching a brand new site at the end of the month called ZQGRAEFS it will have full sales information for ALL the videogames I guarantee it will be at least 100% as accurate as ioi's
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
botticus said:
I think we can do pretty well, we already have some statisticians on the board.
All we have to do is to do better random sampling with retail and have checks and balances to prevent misinformation.
Version 3.0
Member
AdventureRacing said:
That seems to be worded a bit backwards from my thinking, but I agree in principle. A household will probably only have one console, but may have multiple handhelds. The pool of buyers for the single console and the multiple handhelds is the same. Some handheld games have an incentive to buy multiple copies, but much of it isn't compelling, and many have none at all.
Aside from that, the demographics and popular game genres are different, anyway. You could speculate that a typical handheld game, being a "pick up and play" type of experience (along the lines of Tetris), is less likely to be considered "finished", and therefore the owner may not be inclined to replace it or buy another game.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
charlequin said:
Which, as I said plays to ******** favor, which NPD couldn't give a rats ass about. Face it; they don't give a shit if Kotaku sources VGC when quoting numbers because Kotaku speaks to a market NPD doesn't care about. In fact, i''d wager the only reason we even heard from whats his face is to remind those that will pay that NPD is the only source for true numbers, which would more than explain why they didn't counter with actually revealing the truth; they want you to pay up first. NPD is fine to have chartz supply BS numbers to Joystiq; if say, Bloomberg started to use them in their publications, then we would see NPD panic. That's never gonna happen though, so why should NPD worry?
charlequin said:
Let's not kid ourselves into thinking VGC exists for any other reason than to supply this very group with ammunition. VGC gets what they want, NPD only pipes up when they see money left on the table, and GAF continues to bitch for something it will never get.
You don't consider the fact that they have to do that to be a problem?DeaconKnowledge said:
And of course, there is this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VG_Chartz
Zzoram said:
Oh, definitely. However,
charlequin said:It also didn't help that they cut a very clearly-worded deal with NeoGAF (and, presumably, other sources that they agreed to provide "free numbers" to at the same time) as part of their "please crack down on leaked numbers" campaign, but then failed to meet the terms of that deal even a single time.
charlequin
Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
That is, from my perspective, pretty trivially disprovable through the simple observation that NPD does, indeed, seem to care quite a bit about VGC's existence and the (constantly growing) usage of their false numbers by major media outlets.
VCG exists to make ioi money. Every other consideration is certainly well behind that in the priority list.
MattyGrovesOrMe
Member
Add Entertainment Weekly to that list, with a new regular column using those wacky Shartz numbers. Hey, look at that, Dark Void is doing well!
NPD numbers are obviously more accurate, but capitalism gets in the way of our true enjoyment of them (sloshing about in our filthy troughs). Indeed, we're forbidden from the data despite that it is our actions (buying games) that generate it and the proprietary value given to it through manufactured scarcity! Marx was right. Revolution starts tomorrow.
Unless, of course, we get distracted by video games, which is pretty much guaranteed...
Leondexter said:
no, portables like other systems should have good games. psp has this. psp rules
Baki said:DS has double the install base and way more of an influx of new buyers.
i'm a pretty big advocate of the PSP and even I think you're as transparent as hell
DeaconKnowledge
Member
charlequin said:
Concerned enough to do nothing? Gotcha.
charlequin said:
It's easiest to make money pandering to the LCD. Peas in a pod and all that.
botticus said:
Doesn't matter what I think. For what it's worth I agree that NPD would lose nothing by giving out base numbers while selling more complex breakdowns to paying customers. Doesn't mean it'll happen.
As for major outlets using VGC numbers? Well, not much NPD can do about that, considering how secretive they are. As it stands it seems like their counter is to scream "DON'T TRUST THEM" and then continue as they were. They're clearly fine with just that.
charlequin
Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
Errr... what?
I'm sure you have some very clever justification by which Riley spends so much actual real timeputting out this material attacking dachartz just because he's personally constipated or whatever, but I'm going to go with the straightforward theory here where they do that because they correctly identify someone else providing a free service that competes with their expensive subscriptions, even in a slightly indirect fashion, to actually be a meaningful threat to their business.
If we're going to look at this your way we might as well assume that NPD doesn't care about leaks on GAF, too! After all, the sum total of their (publicly visible) response to any recent leaks has been exactly the same as their (publicly visible) response to ioi's website. Clearly we should just post whatever numbers we can find all the time starting now.