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[theguy]

That David Riley guy sounds like a real douchebag. Doesn't he realize that more NPD numbers out there means more win for NPD? So what if a Web site or two misleads its public by taking this type of information and using it without giving credit where credit is due. What's the big deal? Do the other research firms care? I mean, honestly? I'd be willing to bet that GfK, Chart-Track, Enterbrain and Media Create would gladly post all of their numbers on the Web for free if they had the time to, and they probably wouldn't care how those numbers were used. :lol

 

[Mael]

I know people in the video game industry that cite vg fartz not knowing that the numbers are made up.

We all know Square-Enix

 

[Baki]

no, portables like other systems should have good games. psp has this. psp rules



i'm a pretty big advocate of the PSP and even I think you're as transparent as hell

Eh....I was simply pointing out that the DS was also being affected by the used sales market/piracy. However it was not as apparent due to maasive userbase the thing has.

That is, from my perspective, pretty trivially disprovable through the simple observation that NPD does, indeed, seem to care quite a bit about VGC's existence and the (constantly growing) usage of their false numbers by major media outlets.



VCG exists to make ioi money. Every other consideration is certainly well behind that in the priority list.

VGC rise has more to do with GFK/CHart-track more than anything else.

 

[confuziz]

I know people in the video game industry that cite vg fartz not knowing that the numbers are made up.

Maybe a newbie question (sorry), but how do we know for sure that the numbers are made up by this.. 'ioi', and how does he get away with it if they are false?

 

[Joe White]

Maybe a newbie question (sorry), but how do we know for sure that the numbers are made up by this.. 'ioi', and how does he get away with it if they are false?

They describe their estimation methods on their site and have disclaimers basically saying: "we don't take any responsibility for misdelivery or misinformation". And they are known to update their numbers/estimates after NPD and similar reports.

 

[botticus]

I'd be willing to bet that GfK, Chart-Track, Enterbrain and Media Create would gladly post all of their numbers on the Web for free if they had the time to, and they probably wouldn't care how those numbers were used. :lol

If you guys released as much data to the public as Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki, GAF would be a pretty happy place.

 

[CadetMahoney]

I'd be willing to bet that GfK, Chart-Track, Enterbrain and Media Create would gladly post all of their numbers on the Web for free if they had the time to, and they probably wouldn't care how those numbers were used. :lol

as long as those guys are not charlatans like fartz and ioi then it's all good. heh

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Errr... what?

I'm sure you have some very clever justification by which Riley spends so much actual real timeputting out this material attacking dachartz just because he's personally constipated or whatever, but I'm going to go with the straightforward theory here where they do that because they correctly identify someone else providing a free service that competes with their expensive subscriptions, even in a slightly indirect fashion, to actually be a meaningful threat to their business.

If we're going to look at this your way we might as well assume that NPD doesn't care about leaks on GAF, too! After all, the sum total of their (publicly visible) response to any recent leaks has been exactly the same as their (publicly visible) response to ioi's website. Clearly we should just post whatever numbers we can find all the time starting now.

Are you really conflating GAF leaks of NPDs numbers with VG Chartz bullshit? Of course NPD is going to be angry that the information they're trying to keep close to their chest still manages to spill out. VGC has nothing to do with that.

Also, I maintain that despite the bitching from Riley, NPD's general stance is to do nothing, particularly considering that VGC admittedly re-sources their databases with NPD numbers. The only reason you're hearing Riley say anything is for lip service to inform those that would listen that VGC is a fraud, but considering the vitriol which NPD has used against other sources that have released even tiny morsels of information not sanctioned for public distribution by NPD, their assault of VGC and their publically available info and loose algorithims has been virtually zero. If NPD considered VGC a threat, they would have done more. Their actions really don't signify much more than an elephant swatting at a gnat.

 

[jcm]

Actually if you read JJsloans analysis in the npd threads you would realise that selling hardware at a very fast rate leads to worse tie ratios.

That's not true. Selling hardware at a rapidly accelerating rate depresses tie ratios. Selling hardware at a fast, steady rate does not. Also, as install base increases, this effect lessens.

 

[Jokeropia]

Eh....I was simply pointing out that the DS was also being affected by the used sales market/piracy. However it was not as apparent due to maasive userbase the thing has.

It's also not as apparent because DS has a particularly good tie-ratio for a handheld while PSP has a particularly poor tie-ratio.

 

[jvm]

It's also not as apparent because DS has a particularly good tie-ratio for a handheld while PSP has a particularly poor tie-ratio.

Is there updated data (other than shipments)? This was 1.5 years ago:

The tie ratio for the Nintendo DS appears to be around 4.8, while the ratio for the PSP is around 4.2. For the sake of comparison, the tie ratios for the current generation of consoles range from 8.1 on the Xbox 360 down to 5.4 on the Nintendo Wii.

 

[BishopLamont]

JVM is it possible to get split ratios between DSL/DSi? I would think DSi would be around 60-70% now.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Regarding games that are selling surprisingly little, I agree that there are way too many games being released. Far too many titles competing for scarce consumer dollars.

Regarding DS total software sales relative to hardware sold, portables break more often than consoles because they are being dragged all over the place, often by careless children. Anecdotally, every family I know with multiple kids have broken one or more DS systems, usually two or more. So the actual install base could be substantially smaller than the number of hardware units sold.

 

[boiled goose]

That's not true. Selling hardware at a rapidly accelerating rate depresses tie ratios. Selling hardware at a fast, steady rate does not. Also, as install base increases, this effect lessens.

sellling more hardware does depress the tie ratio. The higher percentage of new owners you have in a given month the lower the tie ratio will be. remember that you are comparing btw different systems. the effect should decrease, as install base grows, but that is also making a lot of assumptions.

The best metric for software buying habits is purchases/average weeks of ownership.

 

[jvm]

JVM is it possible to get split ratios between DSL/DSi? I would think DSi would be around 60-70% now.

This is not something NPD has been willing to release. As far as they're concerned, it's up to Nintendo to publish that information. Nintendo did this for the first few months, but dropped it.

The best I can tell you is that the HW ASP was $150 near the end of 2009. That puts the ratio at 1-to-1 in that month, which is in line with how things were going when Nintendo stopped touting the DSi sales figures.

Into and after Christmas, I have no idea what happened. Sorry.

 

[jcm]

sellling more hardware does depress the tie ratio. The higher percentage of new owners you have in a given month the lower the tie ratio will be. remember that you are comparing btw different systems. the effect should decrease, as install base grows, but that is also making a lot of assumptions.

The best metric for software buying habits is purchases/average weeks of ownership.

Selling more only depresses it if sales are accelerating. Consistently selling a lot of hardware doesn't, because the install base ages at a steady rate.

So machines that are experiencing rapid YOY or sequential growth will see their tie ratio temporarily fall. Machines that sell a lot of units consistently (like the DS) won't.

 

[Beer Monkey]

So machines that are experiencing rapid YOY or sequential growth will see their tie ratio temporarily fall. Machines that sell a lot of units consistently (like the DS) won't.

How many DS units are bought to replace broken units? How many DS units are bought as additional units for households that already own DS units? Not every family that has multiple systems for multiple kids are willing to buy multiple copies of each game. Not every commuter that buys a shiny bright DS Lite for the train but keeps their old phat for use in the toilet at home is going to buy multiple copies of each game.

 

[jcm]

How many DS units are bought to replace broken units? How many DS units are bought as additional units for households that already own DS units? Not every family that has multiple systems for multiple kids are willing to buy multiple copies of each game. Not every commuter that buys a shiny bright DS Lite for the train but keeps their old phat for use in the toilet at home is going to buy multiple copies of each game.

I have no idea how many units fit into those categories. If you have data, please share it.

I can't see how it would make a difference to the issue I'm discussing, though, since those purchases should be spread fairly evenly throughout the machine's lifetime. They seem like reasonable arguments for handhelds in general having lower tie ratios than consoles, but that's not anything I'm disagreeing with.

 

[BishopLamont]

This is not something NPD has been willing to release. As far as they're concerned, it's up to Nintendo to publish that information. Nintendo did this for the first few months, but dropped it.

The best I can tell you is that the HW ASP was $150 near the end of 2009. That puts the ratio at 1-to-1 in that month, which is in line with how things were going when Nintendo stopped touting the DSi sales figures.

Into and after Christmas, I have no idea what happened. Sorry.

Ah ok, my guess would be a 1:1 ratio still applies, or even a slight tilt towards DSL. DS 2 incoming!

How many DS units are bought to replace broken units? How many DS units are bought as additional units for households that already own DS units? Not every family that has multiple systems for multiple kids are willing to buy multiple copies of each game. Not every commuter that buys a shiny bright DS Lite for the train but keeps their old phat for use in the toilet at home is going to buy multiple copies of each game.

That assumes that DS are more prone to breaking then other consoles, which is completely false.

 

[Vinci]

sellling more hardware does depress the tie ratio. The higher percentage of new owners you have in a given month the lower the tie ratio will be. remember that you are comparing btw different systems. the effect should decrease, as install base grows, but that is also making a lot of assumptions.

The best metric for software buying habits is purchases/average weeks of ownership.

Yeah, where's Joshua when we need him?

 

[Beer Monkey]

That assumes that DS are more prone to breaking then other consoles, which is completely false.

Do you honestly believe that families don't chew through DS systems faster than actual consoles that sit in the entertainment center?

 

[BishopLamont]

Do you honestly believe that families don't chew through DS systems faster than actual consoles that sit in the entertainment center?

Not at a rate that is statistically relevant to the consistency of DS sales.

 

[poppabk]

Selling more only depresses it if sales are accelerating. Consistently selling a lot of hardware doesn't, because the install base ages at a steady rate.

So machines that are experiencing rapid YOY or sequential growth will see their tie ratio temporarily fall. Machines that sell a lot of units consistently (like the DS) won't.

While selling a lot consistently doesn't reduce the tie ratio it will depress it relative to poorly selling hardware, especially when you consider the sales patterns of hardware which tend to have large launches followed by troughs during summer and spikes each holiday season.

 

[charlequin]

Are you really conflating GAF leaks of NPDs numbers with VG Chartz bullshit?

I am indeed equating two things which have produced precisely equivalent levels of response from the agent in question, yes.

Do you honestly believe that families don't chew through DS systems faster than actual consoles that sit in the entertainment center?

But the DS is built like a tank while all three current-gen systems will go belly-up if you sneeze on them gently.

 

[jcm]

While selling a lot consistently doesn't reduce the tie ratio it will depress it relative to poorly selling hardware, especially when you consider the sales patterns of hardware which tend to have large launches followed by troughs during summer and spikes each holiday season.

Software has the same troughs and peaks, though, so you shouldn't see any change in tie ratio due to that.

 

[Pureauthor]

Do you honestly believe that families don't chew through DS systems faster than actual consoles that sit in the entertainment center?

Um, yes? The DS is an absolute brick.

Have you ever considered that Nintendo has already taken into account that your average handheld will see more wear and tear than the average console, and adjusted the design accordingly?

 

[antiquegamer]

How many DS units are bought to replace broken units? How many DS units are bought as additional units for households that already own DS units? Not every family that has multiple systems for multiple kids are willing to buy multiple copies of each game. Not every commuter that buys a shiny bright DS Lite for the train but keeps their old phat for use in the toilet at home is going to buy multiple copies of each game.

Well, in my house there are total of 3 DS units and you are right, aside from may be 1 or 2games (like Mario Kart) we all shared our games.

My in-law house is the same all the kids each have DS and they shared their games.

 

[Koren]

Maybe a newbie question (sorry), but how do we know for sure that the numbers are made up by this.. 'ioi',

There's plently of evidences, but the more funny one, I think, is when he gives numbers for games that were finally not released and delayed one week. Seeing a game selling a couple ten thousands while being not available, it's a infinite-divide-by-zero error percentage...

and how does he get away with it if they are false?

Too many people don't care about right numbers as long as they are believable.

 

[Gravijah]

Too many people don't care about right numbers as long as they are believable.

Or if they fit into their agendas.

 

[Naruto]

Also like I said before, DS has a more active userbase due to a larger influx of new owners. This leads to better tie ratios as oppossed to a platform which is declining (HW wise).

I'm sorry, but your last sentence clearly shows how clueless you really are, as it is exactly the opposite of what you claimed - A platform which is declining usually has a much better software ratio due to the fact that people buy less hardware and much more software, compared to the amount of hardware sold.
Why not just shown Gamecube's attache ratio, which I'm sure is way bigger than DS's? The fact is - DS is already having the best attach ration than any handheld in history, That in itself, is a huge accomplishment.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

4. Mario & Luigi ~ 1.3 million

Big surprise for me, I never expected it to chart so high, it's like casual gamers are playing RPGs!

 

[Jokeropia]

Is there updated data (other than shipments)? This was 1.5 years ago:

[Worldwide] Software/Hardware ratio using official shipment as 31 December 2009 :

PSP 3.8
GBA 4.6
DS 5.5

Nothing wrong shipments when it's used for both HW and SW.