Since 3DS XL will be launched in US with NSMB2, like in Japan, I'd expect good numbers.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Japan Famitsu: 3DS LL 192k, NMB2 431k in 2 days
- Thread starter king zell
- Start date
Since 3DS XL will be launched in US with NSMB2, like in Japan, I'd expect good numbers.
They did,
In the UK
test_account
XP-39C²
What do you mean with paying attention to reality in this case? Arent we talking about the senario before Vita launched? Or am i missing something here?
But the point is that people make predictions all the time. Some people predicted the PS3 to be hugely successful because it was the successor to the PS2. Some people expected the Wii to be the next PS2. Some people expected the 3DS to dominate and be hugely succesful right off the bat. Some people expected the PSP to sell like 6-7 million units LTD in Japan. For every new generation you have predictions on both sides of the spectrum, which automatically means that someone is right and someone is wrong.
Wut
Hell no. They like their version and will stick with it till the bitter end.
Count Dookkake
Member
.
Oh God Chris what have you done.
I'd blame Sony for Vita's situation before I'd blame the 3DS. It can't even beat the PSP.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Wii U's mirroring the 3DS approach (serve your own base + serve your competitor's base) from Nintendo's perspective, that's all. You keep saying we can't even make comparisons due to not knowing PS4 specifics, yet you keep drawing Wii comparisons anyway. :/
OK, I'll try it!
x = NSMB 2 Download Cards units sold
y (retail NSMB 2 units sold)
y<<<x (Nintendo sold more codes than retail units)
x+y=eb (retail+DD= economic boost)
I'm pretty sure I didn't get it right XD
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure, but we will never know the outcome before it is being put out for sale. It wasnt exactly crazy to think that the 3DS would be hugely successful from day 1 based on the history of the DS, but that didnt happen either. Or what about the predictions about the Wii that was going to fail based on N64 and GC sales? Sometimes the "safe bet" predictions can end up being wrong as well.
It is easy to know the answer after it has been revieled
Sometimes you must try before you know the answer. No one can know 100% for sure how succesful a product will be before it actually is out for sale.plagiarize
Banned
i'm pretty sure you didn't too.
i'm not sure that Chris did though either, because there's nothing telling us what the heck Z is and why that's there.
remember also that codes could be counted seperately to purchases through the eshop.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
I didn't even consider that these numbers don't count the DD sales. I hope Nintendo releases those numbers soon.
test_account
XP-39C²
I never said that you cant do comparisons. I just said that i didnt see why the prediction was made at this stage because we know nothing about what the PS4 offers. I even said "he made a prediction, so fair enough".
But yeah, i see that comparison as you mention with WiiU. I just mean to say that since we know nothing of the PS4, i think it is too early to say that it will dominate over PS4. It can be the case of course, but i think it is too early to say.
Count Dookkake
Member
.
test_account
XP-39C²
Who is going to sell the most of WiiU, PS4 and Xbox 720?
Count Dookkake
Member
.
test_account
XP-39C²
Nintendo have always sold most handheld, so if someone predicts that Nintendo will sell most handheld units again, it is easy to say that looking at the historic data, sure. But how the final outcome will be is not always easy to say for sure. Wii and PS3 are good examples of that looking at historical data (N64 and GC sales, and PS1 and PS2 sales). The market also changes, so things can be different than before.
x = eShop downloads
y = digital download codes sold at retail
z = retail units
y<<<x (more eShop downloads than the codes)
x+y = eShop broken (servers crashed)
Nice, it might be that.
Count Dookkake
Member
.
720
It would take a grave miscalculation on MS's part for them to lose this next generation.
That said, this is a guess made sight unseen. I may very well change it based on what MS ends up showing.
And no, I don't factor Sony into the scenario very heavily. It will be between Nintendo and MS.
test_account
XP-39C²
Easy to predict, sure, but not easy to know the final outcome
The weaker hardware compared to the competetion could have hurt them from the start. Many predicted the other way around, that the Wii wouldnt be succesful. I dont think that even Nintendo themself predicted this level of success. They tried something different and hoped that the market would respond well to it. It was a gamble, but luckily for Nintendo it payed off, big time.Yeah, i dont want to go too deep into this discussion in this thread, sorry. I mostly just wanted to mention that things can easily go both ways because the market can respond differently from generation to generation. Naturally some predictions are much more likely to happen that others indeed, but even the more "sure bet" predictions might end up being wrong (or different than what people expected).
Thats fair. I guess that closer predictions are made when we know more about what the systems have to offer.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
I'd say it'll be different depending on the region.
Japan will go to Nintendo
America will go to Microsoft
Europe will...probably sink to complete irrelevancy
It's easier to predict 'last place' than who will 'win'.
mugurumakensei
Member
I'm not so sure yet. I have a feeling MS might price themselves out of the market. Sony will be much more conservative (not as much as Nintendo), but that's slightly out of necessity.
mugurumakensei
Member
Yes, it's good. It's one of the highest openings.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yeah, it might be different from region to region indeed. I hope that all of them succeed regardless of who sell the most
It is pretty good. It is only two days of sales. We wont see if there is any fatigue before many weeks have gone by.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Or "epic bomba".
Lord_Byron28
Member
A lot of people were very skeptical of the 3DS. In fact for nearly a year before the 3DS hit analysts said that the market for dedicated handhelds was gone and the iPhone replaced it.Sure, but we will never know the outcome before it is being put out for sale. It wasnt exactly crazy to think that the 3DS would be hugely successful from day 1 based on the history of the DS, but that didnt happen either. Or what about the predictions about the Wii that was going to fail based on N64 and GC sales? Sometimes the "safe bet" predictions can end up being wrong as well.
It is easy to know the answer after it has been revieled
I agree somewhat. However not everything is as black and white. For example, I thought the Wii would be a turnaround for Nintendo coming off of the N64/GCN days but I don't think anyone fore saw exactly how succesful the Wii would be. The buzz around Wii was quite noticeable and I thought Nintendo had a hit on their hands but I still thought the 360 would probably outsell it. Or for another example titles such as Brain Training and Monster Hunter came out of nowhere. I don't think anyone in their wildest imaginations could've foreseen those titles blowing up in the way that they did.
I do agree though that the writing tends to be on the wall in terms of how a system is perceived especially after you see the titles they have anounced for the platform/ especially launch lineup. For example I never thought highly of 3DS launch lineup but I knew there would be titles in the future that would be released that would be very succesful. With the Vita, I said time and time again that Vita wouldn't be succesful because Sony was implementing the same strategy as they did with PSP/PS3 and those were only saved by a massive price drop and a complete system redesign and
PSP by a miracle title that set Japan in a frenzy which is a rare event. Especially when considering Vita's games anounced don't/didn't have the sales power. I thought the writing was on the wall for Vita that it wouldn't be very succesful but I never predicted sales to be as bad as they have been.
That's such a stupid question, I can't believe how many people are seriously answering. No one is going to know when no details are known about the PS4/720. When we find out launch lineup, software anounced, hardware details and price point then we can make an accurate prediction.
As we know what the deal is with Wii U, I think it will be a succesful console for Nintendo but it will fall a bit short of the Wii, never going to have the same spark that Wii/DS had based on knowledge that we know anyway. It still amazes me that Nintendo has yet to try and find or push out fresh new idea software like Brain training was for the DS or Wii Sports for the Wii U on 3DS. While they will do well because their ips have amazing sale power and they reinvigorated/launched many succesful ips during the Wii/DS era. They likely will never out do the Wii/DS without pursuing new audiences.
Let's see how Japanese 3rd party support looks for Wii U before declaring it the winner already.
I do think the Nintendo launch window lineup for Japan is incredibly impressive- but as the Wii showed you have to have 3rd parties to fill in the gaps.
I do think the Nintendo launch window lineup for Japan is incredibly impressive- but as the Wii showed you have to have 3rd parties to fill in the gaps.
BassForever
Member
I hope we get an explanation for this tomorrow lol
KillerMan91
Member
I think it's silly to ignore Sony considering that currently PS3 is outselling the other two worldwide. Not to mention that next gen MS will not probably get one year (one and half in Europe) headstart and ridiculous price advantage like in this gen. I would also say that Sony's strenghtened first party will be major advantage for them next gen. I predict that next gen will be pretty much closest gen ever.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yep, in every generation you will have predictions on both sides. Someone are bound to be right
I didnt really mean it to be a serious question in that way, it was more as an question/answer to when it was said that it was easy to make predictions about who is going to win and lose. The more we know, the easier it can be to make a prediction for sure, but even then it i dont think that it is always easy to say for sure how the outcome will be.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Despite their critical success Sony still has the weakest 1st party commercially. I'd say their focus on that over securing 3rd party exclusivity probably did more harm than good long term.
In Japan they're a real non-issue too, SCEI has never had a weaker portfolio than they do today.
walking fiend
Member
I suspect microsoft miscalculations have already started:
Firstly, 360 have had the least shipment till 2007 for this year first 2 quarters, the next year will most probably be worse.
Second, they missed the ball on casual support; Kinect has sold ~20m, but there are very few million sellers.
Thirdly, they have failed to expand their 1st party support, particularly losing Bungie [and also worsening Rare and Lionhead situation to almost terrible]
If Sony does not meaningfully differentiate the PS4 from the 720 and Wii U, it is over.
electroplankton
Banned
Fixed
Chris. You got 5 variables, one inequality and one equation. This is not solvable. >:|
In terms of WW LTD MS next console will have to fight again its endemic struggles in Japan but also in most of the European countries, in order to lead the market.
But I think that each hardware house will have to fight against its own "demons".
Of course without firm facts about each console (including the WiiU, still misterious in terms of price, for example, and in terms of Japanes support) it's very difficult to say something.
nhlducks35
Member
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-07-31-a-small-start-for-the-big-new-3ds-wont-hurt-nintendo
3ds XL sold less than 10,000 in the UK?
3ds XL sold less than 10,000 in the UK?
MasterSheen
Member
Yes, there's already a thread about it.
Allan Holdsworth
Member
Not that good for NSMB2, even if download cards are not included. Cards + e-shop should be a very small numbers since they actually cost more than the retail version.
I don't think you understand what PPI means. Shrinking both those images down to the same size as the original low-res, and displaying them on the same screen will obviously make them look the exact same. Now if you displayed the screenshot on an original PSP, and then beside that you have an upscaled version on a vita screen? That's a more accurate comparison to show what high PPI does for a screen.Shouldn't both images be reduced to the physical size of the (in this case PSP) screen for a more proper comparison though? And of course there can be disadvantages as the new iPad shows when games like Nova 3 have to reduce their visual settings to run decently on it. If you'd isolate resolution as its own thing that doesn't affect and isn't affected by other factors, yeah, more is better every single time, but it's hard to do that when it can affect things enough to reinforce coming failures. Any gamer would rather have the most powerful and most successful system ensuring a healthy library for a long time, but when you have to choose one the latter works for most.
Anyway, the 3DS ppi is pretty decent (akin to iPad2 and other similarly modern gadgets iirc?), going for the LL or not is up to one's preference and convenience, options are rarely, if ever, bad anyway. Speaking of the iPad2 I guess an even better and proper comparison would be to view the same 3D scene rendered on an iPad2 in its native resolution and then on the new iPad in its own native resolution. A scene that isn't taxing enough to cause the new iPad's version to need downgrading at least.
Lord_Byron28
Member
NSMB2 sold about half of what NSMBW and NSMBDS did in about half as much time. Also, digital sales are still a factor. I thought the cards + eshop were the same price.
MSRP is the same, but retailers gave bigger discounts for the boxed game.