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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
bemusedchunk
Banned
I guess I'm a fool for thinking the Wii U could hit triple digits in June.
Fools have more fun.
What I bolded is exactly what I meant. Not sure how much Halo 5 is gonna do for the XB1, though. It'll have to be a good game on its own merits, not just living off the name.
That said, I REALLY hope the MCC comes to PC, or else I'll have to buy an XB1 at some point to play it hah.
I remain cautiously optimistic for the WiiU. MK8 launched in the last day of May and then they had a very strong E3. If the WiiU breaks triple digits, there could be life left in the old girl, yet.
This means the Wii U will either sell about 130K or < 0 this month.
Aquamarine
Member
Reggie said the following comment in a June 11th interview:
Question: Will the Wii U ever outsell the Xbox One or PlayStation 4?
Reggie: The dirty little secret is if you look at life-to-date numbers, between Sony and Nintendo they’d be pretty close in terms of PS4 vs. Wii U, with Xbox coming in third place. I think it’s going to be a three-horse race for the balance of this cycle.
Question: Will you ever outsell them on a monthly basis?
Reggie: You know, it’s going to be very interesting to see the NPD data [on U.S. sales] for June.
Right now the momentum is just in PS4s court, they aligned their system with Watch_Dogs promotional work, their own release in TLOU and Destiny hype train. That momentum will be hard if not impossible to break.
But they will have CoD and Halo Collection for the holiday season to maybe help them edge the PS4 out, for a month or two at least. Its not a long term solution at all, we saw how a original release in Halo 4 fell of the face of the earth so quickly, so 4 games in a compilation disc will struggle to remain relevant for any length of period of time, same goes for TLOU remaster. And Halo 4 is a numbered sequel that come out for a gigantic 360 audience and still just vanished quite fast. CoD's relevancy is diminishing, unless the new game can truly breathe new life into it.
If Destiny does take off then PS4 will be the one that likely benefits the most from it. XB1 will also benefit, but to a lesser degree obviously. If Xb1 does less than 150k then i dont really know what to say
But they will have CoD and Halo Collection for the holiday season to maybe help them edge the PS4 out, for a month or two at least. Its not a long term solution at all, we saw how a original release in Halo 4 fell of the face of the earth so quickly, so 4 games in a compilation disc will struggle to remain relevant for any length of period of time, same goes for TLOU remaster. And Halo 4 is a numbered sequel that come out for a gigantic 360 audience and still just vanished quite fast. CoD's relevancy is diminishing, unless the new game can truly breathe new life into it.
If Destiny does take off then PS4 will be the one that likely benefits the most from it. XB1 will also benefit, but to a lesser degree obviously. If Xb1 does less than 150k then i dont really know what to say
Dragonborn
Member
I think come 2015, a $299 X1 with Halo 5 will help them out a lot in NA/little NA (UK). Maybe $250 for Black Friday? It won't close the gap but it'll keep them from dropping behind even further.... of course, that's assuming it's good. If it's just another 343 blunder, they'll probably kill off the series once and for all. I do think it'll be the lowest selling Halo so far though and UC4 will easily outsell it.
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't more people buy Ghosts on the PS4 than on the XBone?
Dragonborn
Member
Yes, WW, but in NA, the X1 sold slightly better (though, Ghosts had KZSF to compete with on PS4). I don't think exclusive marketing will help the X1 much this gen around. Like last gen with the 360, it's helping the PS4 right now because Sony's got the mindshare. People know CoD is coming to PlayStation. Now compare that to many people (even on this Forum) who think Destiny is timed or full on PS4 exclusive. It's very different.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
With the userbase numbers, it being made by 343 and Uncharted 4's likely 60fps/1080 Corinne Yu inspired godliness, I am pretty sure Uncharted 4 could sell more than Halo 5.
prag16
Banned
Yeah, my bad. I had 70k in my head at that moment for Wii U for May for some reason. Still don't really see it happening. We'll see.
Crimson_Gold
Member
I believe that you are correct. XB1 will benefit from having the early access to the DLC, but last year proved that anything is possible.
I was and still am on the stance that a digital event not having the same level of impact as a live presser. I know I got a lot of heat for this last time around but I stand by it and I think the numbers will back me up.
That said I do hope the system does well. Unlike Sony with vita Nintendo actually supports the system. Even if it's because they understand that the home console market is vital for them going forward while Sony may not think the same with dedicated handheld market, it's still impressive to me...especially as a vita owner.
But yeah I was thinking 100-105k Max for this month for WiiU. That won't be a great result either sadly
LOL well he isn't wrong technically...it really would be interesting to see them!
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
If Patcher's # is only 10k off from the real thing,..then that is very sad for Wii U, and that's just being nice about it. And here I am, thinking it'd outsell XBO this month. Thanks Reggie.
But maybe they'll hit a miracle and this is another outlier month for Patcher...hitting way below the real figure.
Aquamarine
Member
Well...the rankings have been flip-flopping. The Xbox One version outsold the PS4 version in 2013, but recently the PS4 version has been selling better month-to-month.
November 2013:
360 > PS3 > PS4 > XBO > PC > Wii U
December 2013:
360 > PS3 > XBO > PS4 > Wii U > PC
November + December 2013:
360 > PS3 > XBO > PS4 > PC > Wii U
January 2014:
360 > PS3 > XBO > PS4 > WII U > PC
February 2014:
360 > PS3 > XBO > PS4 > WII U > PC
March 2014:
360 > PS4 > PS3 > XBO > WII U > PC
April 2014:
360 > PS4 > PS3 > XBO > WII U > PC
May 2014:
360 > PS4 > PS3 > XBO > WII U > PC
My mind is going to be blown if the 100$ pricecut and Kinect jettison will still have XB1 trailing behind in sales. I don't believe it'll happen. They have to have sold a lot more this month.
But if they didn't, and this panic-button move is paying little dividends, there will be meltdowns @ the Redmond offices. That's for sure.
But if they didn't, and this panic-button move is paying little dividends, there will be meltdowns @ the Redmond offices. That's for sure.
Aquamarine
Member
Still in time, but need to use the format from the OP.
Thank you, I'm a bit in a hurry and I copied the wrong format and missed the 3DS as well
Using % off might be a better metric with Wii U being so low. That's one of the reasons Wii U isn't part of the points calculation, since a small units difference can be a large % difference.
If we dismiss January 2013 as an outlier:
Off by: +14K (+21%)
Off by: -13K (-19%)
Off by: +18K (+49%)
Off by: -1K (-3%)
Off by: -4K (-10%)
Off by: +11K (+22%)
=
Average deviation: +/- 10K (+/-21%, min: 3% off, max: 49% off)
Thanks!
See, now that's the thing that really has me scratching my chin right here. How many SKUs has there been of the XBox One now?
Day One Edition
Standard Edition w/ Kinect
Titanfall Edition
Standard Edition w/o Kinect
Am I missing anything? Seems like they've been throwing the kitchen sink out there trying to stuff the channels with shipped units IMHO.
ethomaz
Banned
They already said they will work with retail inventory in last quarter... so I expect low shipments (way less than 1 million for XB1).
I guess some cases they just unbundled the Kinect from the XB1 boxes... is that possible?
anexanhume
Member
I don't even have enough confidence to make a prediction that won't embarrass me this month. Just salivating for dem numbers.
Dragonborn
Member
[360] 80k
[3DS] 128k
[PS3] 53k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 105k
[3DS] 128k
[PS3] 53k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 105k
Jimmyfenix
Member
Just do it !! Your prediction can't be that crazy.
RealityPales
Member
ricardokenshin
Member
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 100k
my first predictions
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 100k
my first predictions
Aquamarine
Member
Just make sure to do 6 predictions (3DS, Xbox One, PS4, Wii U, PS3, 360) otherwise they won't be counted.
DarthWalden
Banned
It's likely the XB1 will still be trailing this month but I don't think that means they need to hit any kind of panic button.
Most people don't buy consoles in June.
The new SKU will position them nicely for the fall when the Christmas shopping season begins.
Clarkus Darkus
Member
[360] 65k
[3DS] 80k
[PS3] 46k
[PS4] 150k
[WIU] 95k
[XB1] 83k
[3DS] 80k
[PS3] 46k
[PS4] 150k
[WIU] 95k
[XB1] 83k
ferrasvansen
Member
Okay will give this a bash, I'm not the best at these things but hey its worth a go.
[360] 89k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 75k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 135k
[360] 89k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 75k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 135k
Aw, man I mis-read that. There is no CoD collection coming this year, is there.
As much as I malign that series I would totally jump on a CoD4 or MW2 remaster. I still go back to those games for the multiplayer on my Xbox 360.
"Polishing my accordion shoes, I have a date with a garv."
Channeling crazy buttocks on a train?
Aquamarine
Member
"Polishing my dancing shoes, I have a date with a grave."
...is what I got out of it.
Friend of Sonic
Member
Maybe if they had the MK8 bundle in stock. The internet was filled with people complaining about lack of stuff, and many passed up the Mario bundle.
GalacticaN7
Banned
I haven't looked in this thread at all.....but is the feeling that this is the NPD MS finally gets a month over Sony? Just wondering where the heads are at at this. Apologies for being a lazy reader.
I like seeing Sony do well, and I honestly thought MS would win the month Titanfall released...and considering Sony still put a whoopin' in that month, I'm a bit skeptical the price cut made the difference this time around, but it's a good shot me thinks.
I like seeing Sony do well, and I honestly thought MS would win the month Titanfall released...and considering Sony still put a whoopin' in that month, I'm a bit skeptical the price cut made the difference this time around, but it's a good shot me thinks.
Aquamarine
Member
The general sentiment here is that the $399 price cut will have quite a subdued effect on June sales. It might raise them twice above last month's horrid 77K, but not at the level that Xbox One will all of a sudden be a rousing success story.
The retail indications we have so far seem to indicate continued PS4 dominance.
AstroNut325
Member
What the heck... I'll give it a shot. Probably miss by a light year or two though:
[PS4] 189k
[XB1] 125k
[WIU] 85k
[360] 67k
[PS3] 45k
[3DS] 110k
[PS4] 189k
[XB1] 125k
[WIU] 85k
[360] 67k
[PS3] 45k
[3DS] 110k
GalacticaN7
Banned
Thank you much. Good info.
SwiftDeath
Member
Missed this post the first time round.
I'm not too familiar with the technical specifications of the older consoles. I wouldn't be surprised if MS ordered a slightly customized variant of the GeForce 3 that did things a bit uniquely as that was how consoles were designed for the most part back then with little bits of more advanced tech than generally available.
Well I won't claim to know that XB1 is doing "poorly" in July based on their promotions but I will certainly claim that it can be logically inferred that it's still not selling as well as some retailers and/or MS want it to sell even in these slow summer months lest we wouldn't be getting these rather large promotions.
Also Amazon rankings suggest that XB1 sales have probably dropped off a bit in July. PS4 might've as well but seemingly not to the same extent
Code:
Console [URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-06/videogames/?tag=viglink20241-20#1"]June[/URL] [URL="http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-07/videogames/?tag=viglink20241-20#1"]July[/URL]
PS4 STD | 8 12
XB1 KL | 49 59
XB1 STD | ? ?
XB1 TF | 50 ?* ? = Did not chart in Top 100 for the month, XB1 KL = Kinectless, XB1 STD = Kinect SKU, XB1 TF = Titanfall Bundle
Obviously Amazon rankings have to be taken with a large grain of salt but they are still interesting. It would seem Amazon finally ran out of TF bundles and yet no other XB1 SKU is charting to replace it.
Why leave out the Destiny Bundle PS4? Just curious.
Aquamarine
Member
It's not going to be tracked by NPD until September.
NPD accounts for purchases and returns but not speculative preorders.
Ahh, makes sense.
"production shipments"