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June 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 12th

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Hmm, just curious, but what makes you think that?

Because firstly, i was expect this before launch, a game like OverWatch with that style of game has always good legs and with only one week of May is super likely it will sell more in the second NPD.

Second, we already know is happen in UK and Japan was close. USA won't be difference.

Game should perform similar to last month, probabily a bit better, in the worse scenario, a bit worse, but still at least >400K.

I think it will be close between UC4, Doom and Overwatch. Doom has spent the majority of the month on sale and they had a free demo. Overwatch has not had any major sales outside of a small Newegg deal. All 3 should be sub 350K for the month.

OverWatch will definitively outsell both Uncharted 4 and DOOM by a good margin... fell like many of you underestimate OverWatch...


Gonna write my predictions soon.
 

Javin98

Banned
Because firstly, i was expect this before launch, a game like OverWatch with that style of game has always good legs and with only one week of May is super likely it will sell more in the second NPD.

Second, we already know is happen in UK and Japan was close. USA won't be difference.

Game should perform similar to last month, probabily a bit better, in the worse scenario, a bit worse, but still at least >400K.



OverWatch will definitively outsell both Uncharted 4 and DOOM by a good margin... fell like many of you underestimate OverWatch...


Gonna write my predictions soon.
Sounds like solid reasoning, you're probably right.
 

Sterok

Member
[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 25K
[XB1] 150K

Kirby will be top 5. Wii U will be the top SKU for Minecraft. Tokyo Mirage Sessions will be < 50K.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Because firstly, i was expect this before launch, a game like OverWatch with that style of game has always good legs and with only one week of May is super likely it will sell more in the second NPD.

Second, we already know is happen in UK and Japan was close. USA won't be difference.

Game should perform similar to last month, probabily a bit better, in the worse scenario, a bit worse, but still at least >400K.



OverWatch will definitively outsell both Uncharted 4 and DOOM by a good margin... fell like many of you underestimate OverWatch...


Gonna write my predictions soon.

You are probably right but for me it's hard to get a read on Overwatch as most of my friend's list is no longer playing it. I understand it is doing great on PC so there is that.
 
Didn't Uncharted have surprisingly good legs in the UK, too?
Nevertheless Overwatch #1 sounds right.

Top5 could be
Overwatch
LEGO
Uncharted
Doom
GTA5
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
30% drop in week 3 is very good for an AAA title.

[WEEK 2] 78% drop
[WEEK 3] 37% drop (not 30%)
[WEEK 4] 27% drop
[WEEK 5] 45% drop
[WEEK 6] 1% up
[WEEK 7] 22% drop

From 192,000 unit sold first week to 8,000 unit the seventh week, you really think this is "surprising good"?

Meeeeeeeeeanwhile... a game like DOOM which only sold 62,000 unit first week is still selling >10K in UK.

Italy sucks :p

how dare you...
Yes we sucks. :p
 
I'm not sure why you are bringing up Doom. Aside from the first week hold and the week when the price drop went into effect (the one before last I think), it hasn't really held up any better then UC4 in the weeks since. It dropped 44% last week compared to 22% of UC4. Wow, a multiplat title managed to sell 10.6k to UC4s 8.4k. What a difference.

So, if you take out the price drop week, it comes down literally to the second week of the game.

And I don't think saying the game that opened at 100k less then the other one has better legs due to one week.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I'm not sure why you are bringing up Doom.

DOOM is an example, a game released the same week of UC4 that's why i used it, and i can say 100 others example of games with legs.

I'm not sure why you are bringing up Doom. Aside from the first week hold and the week when the price drop went into effect (the one before last I think), it hasn't really held up any better then UC4 in the weeks since. It dropped 44% last week compared to 22% of UC4.

The problem here is only one:

DOOM first week - 62,000
Uncharted 4 first week - 192,000

DOOM lifetime as from last week - 182,000 / already LT sales triple of the first week
Uncharted 4 lifetime sales - 310,000 / 65% LT sales bigger than the first week.

So, now we are really trying to say Uncharted 4 legs are better than DOOM?

And don't talk about pricedrop, cause DOOM already outsold Uncharted 4 even the week before the pricedrop.

In the week 23, one week before the DOOM pricedrop, DOOM sold 11,500 unit compared to Uncharted 10,700 unit.

Close, yeah, with the only difference Uncharted outsold DOOM by over 3:1 first week, humm, yeah...
..............

Wow, a multiplat title managed to sell 10.6k to UC4s 8.4k. What a difference.

This is so random lol. first of all who cares if is a multiplat VS an exclusive?
Second overall in sales Uncharted is by far more impressive than DOOM. Why you are even discuss about this, we are not talk about which game has better sales.

So, if you take out the price drop week, it comes down literally to the second week of the game.

And I don't think saying the game that opened at 100k less then the other one has better legs due to one week.

Think i already replyed to that part.


Seriusly, i said this 1 billion of times, and the fact that i need to say this all freaking times is absurd:

I'M NOT SAYING UNCHARTED 4 HAS BAD LEGS.

Just stop saying legs are surprising good, amazing, impressive, or stuff like this, they aren't /fact.
 
I really think you're largely missing my point. Both have had mostly similar legs. I'm not qualifying if they are good or bad.

But using a game that didn't debut that high to begin with vs. a front-loaded title that have mostly had similar drops outside of two weeks (and one due to price drop) isn't actually doing much to differentiate them.

There are games with better legs then UC4 sure, Doom isn't one of them.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I really think you're largely missing my point. Both have had mostly similar legs. I'm not qualifying if they are good or bad.

But using a game that didn't debut that high to begin with vs. a front-loaded title that have mostly had similar drops outside of two weeks (and one due to price drop) isn't actually doing much to differentiate them.

There are games with better legs then UC4 sure, Doom isn't one of them.

Ok first of all, why you don't use the "quote" when you are clearly talking with me? :-|

Second, that's all i need, DOOM was an example and i don't care about this, don't wanna start a discussion about which legs are better, i just wanna see people stop talking about Uncharted legs like the messiah.

We agree here i believe.
 

Elandyll

Banned
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 30K
[3DS] 60K

XB Scorpio confusion, XB1 S possible impact, No official PS4K announcement, UC4 still going strong, Sony E3 with a lot of buzz ...

for reference, Amazon rankings in June:

edit: last minute adjust from Amazon, PS4 is now ahead of XB1 S pre orders in June (they literally switched rankings)

#16: PS4 - $349
#18: XB1 S 2Gb - $399 (Pre Order)
#46: XB1 1Tb Holiday Bundle - $299


On the hourly, the XB1 S has fallen behind the PS4 for a while now, and the regular XB1 doesn't even show up in the Top 100 anymore it seems.

Could be a rough July for Xbox.
 
Ok first of all, why you don't use the "quote" when you are clearly talking with me? :-|

Second, that's all i need, DOOM was an example and i don't care about this, don't wanna start a discussion about which legs are better, i just wanna see people stop talking about Uncharted legs like the messiah.

We agree here i believe.

On mobile, my quote function sometimes is a bit wonky. I hate using it and then spending time fixing everything :/
 
I read the rumours about Sony not only planning the Neo reveal, but also a slim version at the same time. Problem seems that PS4 already is quite slim and a revision might not produce a real incentive for the customers.

So here's a theory: What if the rumored Slim is in fact an "arcade" box. Basically the thing some guys expect from Xbox to be done. Cheaper build, no disc drive, download only. 200 - 250$.
So in the end we would have 3 console versions: arcade, vanilla and neo.

Best reason for this is VR.
VR is expensive and getting a bundle console + helmet done for a good price would be easier, 600$ doable.
As we learned, VR mostly is about rather short experiences. This sounds like downloadable stuff and no need for a disk slot anyway.

Also, an arcade would catch MS by surprise and attack them on one of their biggest advantages. Being the cheaper option.
Any chance for this to happen?

#f*germany
I forgive you.
 

Conduit

Banned
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 120K
[WIU] 30K
[3DS] 60K

XB Scorpio confusion, XB1 S possible impact, No official PS4K announcement, UC4 still going strong, Sony E3 with a lot of buzz ...

for reference, Amazon rankings in June:


#16: XB1 S 2Gb - $399 (Pre Order)
#18: PS4 - $349
#46: XB1 1Tb Holiday Bundle - $299



On the hourly, the XB1 S has fallen behind the PS4 for a while now, and the regular XB1 doesn't even show up in the Top 100 anymore it seems.

Could be a rough July for Xbox.

XBone S and PS4 switched the place. Probably the last update for June :

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-06/videogames#1
 

Chobel

Member
XB1S was out for less time in the month than the PS4.

At one point XB1S was charting higher than PS4 on Amazon monthly, but now that's not the case meaning PS4 at this moment is selling more than XB1S.

However the price of 2TB SKU is $399, so falling behind PS4 ($349) is expected.
 

Welfare

Member
At one point XB1S was charting higher than PS4 on Amazon monthly, but now that's not the case meaning PS4 at this moment is selling more than XB1S.

However the price of 2TB SKU is $399, so falling behind PS4 ($349) is expected.
Preorders surged at announcement and have slowed. Predictable. It should pick back up closer to launch, in addition to the 500GB and 1TB SKU's getting a proper release date.
 
At one point XB1S was charting higher than PS4 on Amazon monthly, but now that's not the case meaning PS4 at this moment is selling more than XB1S.

However the price of 2TB SKU is $399, so falling behind PS4 ($349) is expected.

Still to be beaten by a normal sku, with XB1 S pre-orders being higher than it until the last update. I think I'll have to lower my XB1 prediction even more.


Edit: OMG Chobel your tag is endless could barely quote you!
 

Unknown?

Member
amazon had a BlOps + Minecraft bundle for 349$ and it sold out quickly

I doubt they sold that many units, hence out quickly. No one's going to jump on getting a $20 game free who wouldn't have otherwise.

Anyway June/July are going to be terrible for XO and I think if it does beat PS4 in August it won't be by much.
 
I doubt they sold that many units, hence out quickly. No one's going to jump on getting a $20 game free who wouldn't have otherwise.

Anyway June/July are going to be terrible for XO and I think if it does beat PS4 in August it won't be by much.

both games are very strong sellers though and i was mostly saying it because of the boost the PS4 got in the Amazon chart's
 

Unknown?

Member
both games are very strong sellers though and i was mostly saying it because of the boost the PS4 got in the Amazon chart's

I'm not saying it had no effect just not much. PS4 is still doing well even without the deal it's more to do with the Xbox One S dropping hard it was out of the top 50 for awhile. Minecraft sells well, sure, but it's not a mass system seller.
 

Welfare

Member
Heads up, I updated my comparison post to include precise Xbox 360 slim numbers in 2010 and also added a comparison looking at non slim sales in June 2010 compared to May.

Changes are here, as well as a comparison between the 360 with and without the Slim.

Code:
2010

Xbox 360 May: 194,600 / 4 = 48,650
Xbox 360 June: 451,700 / 5 = 90,340

Weekly average up 86%

Xbox 360 May: 194,600 / 4 = 48,650
Xbox 360 June (Without S): 271K / 5 = 54,200

Weekly average up 11%

Code:
Notable Releases in June

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Xbox 360 Slim 250GB $299 [180,700]
Price cut: 120GB elite model $249 [3 weeks]
Price cut: Arcade model $149 [158,100] [3 weeks]

360 average for May to June rise with the second data point is a 15% rise.

Source for the numbers are here for those curious: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/discounted-xbox-360s-outsold-new-slim-model-in-us
 
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