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Kadokawa Director: DQ XI Will Outsell Pokémon Sun & Moon And FF15 (JP sales) Combined
- Thread starter Poetic.Injustice
- Start date
Jonneh3003
Banned
It actually isn't so crazy now I think about it.
Pokemon Sun and Moon - Only on 3DS
Final Fantasy XV - Most sales potential was on PS4
DQ11 is launching on three different systems and it will no doubt so well on all of them. FFXV+Pokemon S&M combined is a high benchmark but it's also not impossible. If anything it can beat them in Japan.
Pokemon Sun and Moon - Only on 3DS
Final Fantasy XV - Most sales potential was on PS4
DQ11 is launching on three different systems and it will no doubt so well on all of them. FFXV+Pokemon S&M combined is a high benchmark but it's also not impossible. If anything it can beat them in Japan.
Not a good excuse when there's a Vita game that has sold better
and a bunch of Wii U games.
Neither had anything to do with XV's sales.
edit: to clarify, a) Japan embraced FFXIII far more than the US did, b) FFXIV has reinvented itself into a hit worldwide and c) the sales of FFXIII-2 and LR being lower than XIII reflect a fatigue of the FFXIII world, not FF in general.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's Minecraft though. A new ip on the Wii u beating it is more shocking.
I don't think it's impossibly but consider that DQIX is the best selling DQ game and it hit at the DS' peak.He's expecting DQXI to sell about a million more than it.
Even if you want to believe the DQIX audience has been 100% retained(which considering the general decline or everything and the fact it's been nearly a decade it's doubtful) you'd have to hope that a million people want to double dip.
Or to put it in more brutal terms more people would have to double dip on DQXI than have bought FFXV once.
Minecraft is still a funny example when you consider it's a western indie game or a Microsoft game, whichever way you want to think about it.
EDIT:
Pokémon has always been bigger.
Aarglefarg
Member
There will be double/triple-dipping since the PS4/౩DS versions appear to be different enough to deserve that. Probably not so much at launch because there wouldn't be cross-save, but eventually people will want to try other versions.
AquaWateria
Member
Naw Pokemon has always been bigger than Dragon Quest.
RoyaleDuke
Banned
Look man I am excited about DQ11 too but there is no fucking way it sells more than both of those combined.
One or the other maybe in lifetime sales.
I mean if it does I guess I will eat a plate of the finest crow.
One or the other maybe in lifetime sales.
I mean if it does I guess I will eat a plate of the finest crow.
ranmafan
Member
I think it's going to be close, certainly possible but very close. Even close I do think it's going to happen but I also agree it will come down to the factors you've listed. Point one will be the big factor here for sure. Especially regarding the PS4 sales. But regarding point 2, just from my observations these many many years living in Japan (and particularly the last two years) it's quite remarkable to see how much of the younger generation is into and interested in the series these days. Sure Pokémon is still the king with kids these days but I've seen so many kids here really into the slime character a lot lately, and last years dragon quest live spectator tour that was held over Japan all last summer was a big hit not only with older fans but kids as well. Went to one of the shows and I would say the interests in the franchise by all generations was super high. The kids really dig the whole event just as much as their parents were. And more and more of them talk about the games as well these days.
But yeah considering what they are doing with the release, having the PS4 version and a 3ds version that includes a classic 2d mode, they are going to grab not only those old longtime fans as always as well as the youth interested in the franchise. i think they will succeed with the youth market in the end. But they still have to deal with the shrinkage in the market. DQIX success came during the peak of the DS era in Japan when so many people you didn't expect had one. It will be interesting to see how many of those older generation fans who don't have a system today will be back for xi, and for what system too.
It'll outsell FF15's Japanese LTD in its first weekend.
Maintenance
Member
Let him dream.
metalslimer
Member
I mean it is on 3 platforms with the potential of double (triple?) dipping. I definitely think it should at least outsell Pokemon.
Yeah that's not gonna happen.
As big as Dragon Quest is in Japan, the userbase just isn't there anymore. It's going to reach Monster Hunter levels of sales, and that's it. Which is still no small amount of course, but still not 5 million.
Also, please mods, add "in Japan" in that title.
As big as Dragon Quest is in Japan, the userbase just isn't there anymore. It's going to reach Monster Hunter levels of sales, and that's it. Which is still no small amount of course, but still not 5 million.
Also, please mods, add "in Japan" in that title.
Stormblessed
Member
It's on 3DS as well, so I don't see it being a problem. That said, Square-Enix don't do too well at predicting sales (or setting reasonable expectations) as a general rule.
Minecraft is the only million seller on Vita, and it's far far away from the #2 seller which is only like 250k.
The Vita is not exactly the best example.
This is Kadokawa's director, and Enterbrain's president, not Square Enix. He used to be the chief editor for Famitsu.
Stormblessed
Member
My brain clearly skipped over that part. That's more interesting, actually, since he might have a better grasp of the market.
The Last One
Member
Since he's talking about Japan, maybe? It's really hard though, did a DQ game ever sold more than 5 million copies in Japan alone?
Dragon Quest 9 is the best-selling DQ game in Japan at 4.3 million. But it only released on a single platform with a single version.
No, the only third party game to ever sell that much was MH Portable 3rd. The highest selling DQ is DQIX at 4.3 million.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah, I think people are severely underestimating how many people may double dip. There will likely be a lot of people that buy both the 3DS and Switch version.
ranmafan
Member
I expect the same for people double dipping on the PS4 and 3ds versions. They are really pushing the double pack here in Japan for example as an option. That's what I've already preordered too. Add in the switch version of the game that will eventually come out and you can see how it could easily surpass the sales of both combined.
Also everyone should remember, when there is a big new bit of dragon quest news (like last summers live shows) or a huge release (numbered game in the series), it's an insane deal here in Japan, even more so than I think some believe. The national news reports on it, tv shows talk about it, it's still quite the phenomenon it's always been. When IX came out it was the talk of everyone that summer (thanks in large part due to the street pass awesomeness that the game had). I expect it to be the same as always, especially since it's been so long since we've had a numbered single player entry in the series. Earlier I said it would be close to hit the mark, but the more I think about it, I think it might be more than close. No matter what it will be a huge release.
RyougaSaotome
Member
I mean, it's definitely in the realm of possibility. Given a lot of the points Aeana made, I suspect it's gonna be close one way or the other.
FloweryMarston
Member
i believe that it will too, many versions that are different, two which are on handhelds (switch/3ds). At minimum it will sell the same as pokémon sun
Guess it will depend on if there being more versions will make more people buy the game or if they'll just choose one over the other and if people will double or even triple dip.
Mediking
Member
ethomaz
Banned
DQ games sells close to 4m in Japan selling for one platform.
His 5m is pretty doable for 3 platforms.
decoyplatypus
Member
Going from 1 platform to 2 (and later 3) is not necessarily a net gain for DQ11. I'm no sales expert, but I doubt PS4's LTD in Japan bridges the gap between 3DS's install base and the DS's install base when DQ9 launched.
Oh I remember the excitement for DQ9. But what street pass stuff are you talking about? Wasn't it a DS game?
UnemployedVillain
Member
Like Splatoon?
Yes. Street pass was in many DS games, just not at a system level as it was on 3DS. In DQ9, you could pass treasure maps around via streetpass.
frankie_baby
Member
A fuck tonne i think is the correct answer there
I'm wondering if the switch version will outsell the ps4 version
frankie_baby
Member
Some DS games did a streetpass like thing, dragon quest 9 being one of them
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