Yeah of course but we can assume the development costs of graphic blockbusters are higher than last-gen AAA.
Just trying to be realistic here :/
Sure 2.1m for a launch title is great, but it doesn't really say anything. I mean what else should people buy? There aren't many interesting next-gen titles yet imo and it's still lost money.
What I'd like to know: How many copies would a next-gen title need to actually sell to be a success? Didn't Tomb Raider (2013) sell like 4m (before the Definitive Edition) and still wasn't financally successful for SquareEnix? I thought there was something like that on GAF
Such numbers are just.... worrying imo.
1. Sony's first party budgets have consistently been far lower than AAA multiplats largely because porting to and customizing for multiple systems is expensive. A key component to the PS4's hardware design and why so many 3rd parties are singing it's praises is to shrink that workload.
2. Tomb Raider was financially successful for SE, they just expected more. They targeted 5M+ sales, but that doesn't mean they didn't make a fistful of money off of it at 4M sales (they did). Publishers were notorious for over-projecting titles all last generation because of the perceived need for "tent pole" releases in every quarter. This is why Capcom continually over-projected the sales of it's major IPs last generation (except MonHun, which actually is a tent pole release for them). Games that weren't financially successful where your mid-tier sellers in the ~1M range that had AAA budgets such as Darksiders II with it's ~$60M pre-advertising budget.
3. Sony's profit margins per sale are ~15-20% higher than 3rd parties thanks to the royalties they charge, so they need 15-20% fewer sales to reach profitability. That's a big chunk of money. If a third party title sells 2.1M like Killzone has it would make roughly $17M less profit for the 3rd party than it does for Sony (assuming a ~$8 royalty fee). The advent of digital distribution is only going to improve the situation for 1st parties as they'll be the retailer, the platform holder, and the publisher. It lets them put all $60 of the retail price in their pocket every digital sale.
This is Nintendo's business model in a nutshell and why they're so addicted to having their own hardware platforms. No royalties makes the 1-2M selling titles quite profitable and the 5-10M sellers into huge financial pillars for years going forward.
If I recall it's rumored that Guerrilla has 2 teams now. You don't make 4 Killzone games without having a core group of people that are really into it. We'll get more Killzone, but we'll also see that new IP Guerrilla is cooking up.
Cambridge I hope is doing their own thing.
Don't be so unoptomistic.
I don't see why it would be un-optimistic to project Cambridge as making the next KZ. Mercenary is one of the three best KZ games along with KZ2 and Liberation.
My bet is that GG isn't really a two full team studio and more like a 1.5 team studio a la the model laid out by inXile when they did their kickstarter for Torment. They have two core teams of lead design people who each work on their own projects. When team 1 is in full development team 2 is in pre-production. As team 1 no longer needs certain types of staff as much (art staff for example) they're rolled over to team 2's project that is beginning development. When team 1's game goes gold the rest of the staff migrates over to team 2's game for the bulk of the game's development while team 1's core leadership goes back to the drawing board on their next title.
This seems to be the structure within Naughty Dog, and it makes a lot of sense. The last chunk of any game's development is very heavily focused on coding and QA/QC. New assets aren't being churned out at a similar rate to early development and therefore far less staff is needed. The alternative is outsourcing art asset creation or laying people off. Neither is a great strategy.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next move for Killzone is for Cambridge to pick it up with some collaboration with the core Killzone: SF team while the majority of GG works on their new IP. Then once Cambridge has the game pretty much off the ground the KZ:SF team will move on to a new IP or follow up to Cambridge's KZ game that the majority of GG can transition to once their current new IP is finished up.