Konami: The future of the video game industry (Spoiler: It's not console)

May 23, 2013
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#1
I noticed there is no thread on this, so thought I'd make my own. Julien Merceron, the worldwide technology director for Konami, delivered a keynote at CEDEC2015 titled "A Technology strategy to reach the next level". The Computer Entertainment Developers Conference 2015 is a conference for computer entertainment developers to gather and promote the exchange of techniques and human resources. It is held every year and usually the results are always good to discuss. Below I have outlined the basic outcome from the presentation.

Julien begins the presentation talking about E3. E3 was very big this year as the next generation of consoles has somewhat fully replaced last gen. This year E3 saw a focus around established IP's in the "high end" space as well as a renewed focus on "online multiplayer" and "open World". There were 2 new major IP's revealed at E3 which is something we will see more of as the console market moves towards solidifying around established IP's as big sellers.



The last generation of consoles is becoming somwhat irrelevant now that we are almost two years in to generation 8. Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 hardware and software sales have decreased quite dramatically, as have ASP's. We can demonstrate this by looking at a game such as Fifa 14 which sold cumulative 10.2 million units on PS3/360 in 2013 and cumulative 3.5 million units on PS4/One in 2013. As you can see, only 25% of sales were on next generation consoles but in 2014 this changed.

Thief and Destiny saw 80% of sales on new gen, Far Cry 4 and The Evil within saw over 70% of sales on new gen. Konami's own Metal Gear Solid 5: Ground Zeroes saw 67% of sales come from new gen. However family friendly and kids titles such as Lego the Movie video game did not follow this trend and only saw 25% of sales come from next gen consoles.



3. VR is a growing trend at the moment but there are issues holding it back such as room space, body awareness, motion sickness and per eye resolution etc.. There is also a question about install base and whether there is even a drive for hardware and software in VR. In the short term Konami think there isn't much revenue/reward in VR for the next 5 years but doesn't that mean that it's wrong to carry out research and development as it can evolve into something bigger if everything goes right. Konami believe AR has the biggest chance for success as it will be more acceptable to customers but it will take some time to master and get right, therefore just like VR it's probably not going mass market very soon.

Therefore, Facebook is good to focus on mobile VR because consumers already have mobile and Microsoft is good to invest in hololens for when AR takes off in the future. But again Julien stresses that there won't be any great successes in this space in the short term.



Konami believe that mobile gaming will grow the most over the next few years based on a report from Gartner. The same report shows that handheld console revenue will decrease drastically to the point where by 2017 it accounts for less than 3% of the total video game market. Home consoles are set to grow as well over the next few years thanks to next generation PS4 + XB1 and future NX. Mobile and web is set to expand the most.

For the graph below, the bottom bit is home console, above that is portable console, then mobile, the top is PC.



Konami believe that there is no way to revive the failing handheld market and that mobile and tablet will take over their userbase. Home console, whilst set to grow will see growth slow every year. Another researcher, Newzoo, says similar things to Gartner but a noticeable difference is that console revenue will mainly stay static whilst PC and Mobile increase rapidly. The below shows total revenues for the global market split down to Console, handheld/tablet, mobile and PC. Just like with Gartner, Newzoo says handhelds are expected to account for less than 1% of gaming revenue in 2018.



Newzoo also have a break down for regions, North America is the smallest gamer territory with estimated 200 million gamers by the end of the year but they spend more than any other market. Europe is estimated to have over 600 million gamers, Latin America over 190 million and Asia-Pacific with 910 million gamers, around 450 million from China alone. Asia is the biggest territory for growth where it is set to grow much faster than North America and Europe which is still growing but not fast at all.

One of the main differences is that TV gaming or console gaming in the US accounts for 45% of the market but in Asia it is only 11%. Mobile and PC is much bigger in Asia with combined 87% share. Mobile is set to grow in both the US and Asia whilst console and PC remain stagnant in the USA but grow in Asia.



Konami notes this growth in Mobile and says that it is a great move as Mobile is very important and already more and more traditional gaming companies are moving into mobile where already there are 250+ new games being released each day on the app stores. Whilst not all publishers/companies are moving to mobile, quite a lot are. However there are some downsides to this as well, in particular two risks. He calls these risks a red ocean and a black hole.




Rather than type out the below I'll let you guys read through the two risks that can affect companies moving into mobile gaming.



A growing problem is user acquisition costs. Konami will counter this problem by reusing assets on console games for mobile. The example cited is using known IP's to draw console gamers and other gamers to mobile by reusing console gaming assets on mobile, the Tegra X1 for example has performance of over 1TFLOPs which means that porting PS3 and 360 assets is cheap to do and can give companies like Konami an advantage. For now they can also create collab titles to get even more users onboard from different gaming communities + also look into e-sports as a way to retain users.

Konami says that e-sports demand is increasing and is a future source of revenue, a way to retain gamers and even gain new gamers. Konami state that retention rate on e-sports is soaring and this is something to explore.



Konami believe that the future of gaming is mobile, especially in Japan where the transition to mobile is already taking place. However Julien does note all the risks of going mobile only and so believes that other strategies need to be considered. Mobile is in danger of becoming a "red ocean" or over saturated so whilst Konami will enter the market they also want to enter a "blue ocean" market where there is less competition and more opportunity.

Julien says that PC could be the next blue ocean as PC gaming in Asia (online/browser/dedicated game) is thriving and even in the West we see PC gaming growing. Julien notes that A & AA games will move to PC and that the number of AAA games will decrease as more and more publishers go mobile with the remaining AAA games being centred around big IP's that always sell well. If publishers keep focusing on AAA titles they need to ensure that revenue covers development costs as costs to develop console games keep rising.



Konami says that creating games for traditional video games is costly and so publishers need to find a way to increase profitability. Can this be done via free to play? Julien says that a large install base is required for f2p to work on console. At the moment this install base of PS4 and XB1 is around 40 million which is much lower than the now, non spending userbase of PS3/360. This is a huge issue as consoles always start their userbase from zero every cycle and so it takes a long time for the install base to build up.

This can be a problem for free to play and Julien uses the example of "World of Tanks" for Xbox One and Xbox 360 to demonstrate free to play on console. He says that if you work out the average revenue generated from a premium priced console game with 1.7 million sales (assuming 12% of target audience by the game) then at an average of $40 per game then the revenue generated is $68 million compared to free to play which when using the same calculations would only generate $21 million over 6 months.

Therefore Julien feels that it doesn't make sense to bring only free to play games like World of Tanks to console, especially when all you need is Xbox Live gold to play which would actually lower the revenue going to the publisher. Therefore it makes sense for premium pricing to remain on console with microtransactions built into the game.



Konami believes that consoles should transition towards evolutionary platforms rather than be static. This will allow for a higher install base and the opportunity for more games to come to console in the form of free to play or even traditional premium priced games that can create a healthy profit despite the high development cost. Rather than creating PS3 and PS4, Sony should create a PS4.1 and have the OS and game library become the core of what defines the platform rather than the cosmetic evolution and differing ecosystems of prior generations.



Julien believes that consoles will not survive unless they adopt the above model. Publishers also need to throw out the old "long development cycle" and focus on creating games to market quickly and pushing updates/evolutions out later. A traditional game cycle can take years and the whole market can change in that time. Julien says that the future is about developing games for Mobile and PC and taking advantage of multiple platforms and social gaming.

In order to conquer on Mobile, Konami believe they will need ambition and creativity as well as a social community begind them. They also believe that PC and web games will become dominant ushering in a new age for esports. They also believe that cloud will be behind every gaming device in the future that connects gamers to each other. Connected glasses is the future as well and there will be a day in the future where AR glasses become as popular as mobile and the internet. Hardware breakthroughs will allow for this.

So what are your thoughts on Konami's vision of the gaming future?



Julien started his video game career in the early 90s at Shen Technology, then joined Ubisoft Entertainment. In 1999, he became World Wide Technical Director at Ubisoft. In this role he played a major part in studio creation and organization, technology, production pipeline design, multi-platform strategy, and AAA features integration for franchises such as Splinter Cell, Prince of Persia, Rainbow Six, Far Cry and Assassin's Creed. He also took responsibility for middleware and development strategy, communication and cooperation strategy, and hardware manufacturer and middleware relations. In 2006, after having worked extensively on Next Generation strategy, Julien joined Eidos as Worldwide CTO, working on the technologies behind franchises such as Hitman, Tomb Raider and Deus Ex, as well as opening Eidos Montreal and Eidos Shanghai. In 2010, Julien became Worldwide Technology Director for Square Enix Group. Addition to the Eidos teams, he also collaborated with the teams working on franchises such as Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts and Dragon Quest. In 2013, he joined Konami Digital Entertainment as Worldwide Technology Director, taking on the lead on the Fox Engine. He is working with Kojima-san and Konami’s game teams, and driving technology strategy aspects for the Group.
 
Jan 24, 2014
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#2
As long as people keep buying $60 games (which they do), the AAA $60 game as we know it is not going anywhere. I'm sure we will see more companies experiment with distribution methods and schedules (see: Hitman), but I don't think the $60 standard will ever truly disappear. Not when people are still buying consoles at least, which I imagine will be a while.

Edit: also I think local hardware is going to be here for at least another gen. Infrastructure still isn't good enough in many places in the U.S. (as an example) to support a non local console and that's a huge market. Then you take into account Asia, non-Western Europe... I don't see it.
 
Jun 7, 2013
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#3
As long as people keep buying $60 games (which they do), the AAA $60 game as we know it is not going anywhere. I'm sure we will see more companies experiment with distribution methods and schedules (see: Hitman), but I don't think the $60 standard will ever truly disappear. Not when people are still buying consoles at least, which I imagine will be a while.
I don't think that's what anyone is arguing. They're just saying there will be less of them.
 
Jul 4, 2013
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#4
$60 games with microtransactions is such a terrible model. I'm sure it's successful for Konami but it screws consumers over so badly.

I don't mind microtransactions, but only in budget priced or F2P games.
 
Jan 6, 2014
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#5
First off, you did a really good job setting up the discussion OP :D! All those graphs and explanations did a lot to better understand the discussion you was trying to create. So great work man :D!

Regarding the topic at hand....its interesting they are considering mobile and PC (as both are successful platforms) but both have there issues with quality control and over saturation, so its not wise throwing all your eggs at mobile/PC now :l.

But having a balance of big AAA games, some mobile games, A/AA games on console and PC and spreading IP through other media (cartoons, toys, ect); gives you a lot of room to breath and in turn, can create an environment that encourages creative freedom in all those areas.

I don't see AAA gaming going away, but I could easily see less AAA games coming out; they are expensive and if they bomb, can lose you a lot of money. Otherwise, I don't see anything changing from what is going on now honestly :).

A company that has a solid mixture of all kinds of games would be Ubisoft :). They have there yearly AAA series (Far Cry, Assassins Creed, Watch_Dogs, ect), smaller games (Child of Light, Valiant Hearts: The Great War), mobile games (Rayman Adventures) and even casual games (Just Dance series). They mess up a lot at times, but point still stands; they have a tightly built ship that is the 'model' AAA company :D....if that is a good thing or not, thats up to the person :l.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
Jul 28, 2013
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#9
Konami believes that consoles should transition towards evolutionary platforms rather than be static. This will allow for a higher install base and the opportunity for more games to come to console in the form of free to play or even traditional premium priced games that can create a healthy profit despite the high development cost. Rather than creating PS3 and PS4, Sony should create a PS4.1 and have the OS and game library become the core of what defines the platform rather than the cosmetic evolution and differing ecosystems of prior generations.
Isn't this the general idea behind the NX Platform (at least based on Iwata's hints & the recent patent)?
 
Oct 7, 2014
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Because console sales aren't as good anymore, despite there being a huge presence in the field we are going to completely stop making games for consoles being based on these graphs it's been lower than other years.


... Yeah.
 
Jan 18, 2014
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#11
$60 games with microtransactions is such a terrible model. I'm sure it's successful for Konami but it screws consumers over so badly.
When a company starts looking at people as little more than dollar signs, they don't care anymore when it comes to screwing consumers over. They know the money is there and they know there's people willing to buy whatever it is they have, the consumer and it's voice are meaningless in the end as long as they get positive results.
 
Feb 12, 2009
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#13
All this statistical analysis and they forget the one thing that's holding them back going forward.

Reputation. No one gives a fuck about Konami in terms of globalization. At this point their brand name will only appeal to the whales.
 

KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Jun 5, 2013
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#14
Actually kinda surprised they weren't super obsessed with mobile as the only option. At least they recognize the Red Ocean potential as mobile begins to grow increasingly crowded.

Never thought I'd see strong nods to PC as "growing potential" to Konami.
Isn't this the general idea behind the NX Platform (at least based on Iwata's hints & the recent patent)?
Yes.
 
Mar 30, 2007
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#15
A growing problem is user acquisition costs. Konami will counter this problem by reusing assets on console games for mobile.

The example cited is using known IP's to draw console gamers and other gamers to mobile by reusing console gaming assets on mobile, the Tegra X1 for example has performance of over 1TFLOPs which means that porting PS3 and 360 assets is cheap to do and can give companies like Konami an advantage. For now they can also create collab titles to get even more users onboard from different gaming communities + also look into e-sports as a way to retain users.
I wish them all the best in their future endeavors
 
Jan 24, 2014
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#16
All this statistical analysis and they forget the one thing that's holding them back going forward.

Reputation.
Marketing will ALWAYS win out over reputation.

I doubt a large majority of the people who bought MGSV know or care who Kojima is. When a game gets reviews this high and a marketing campaign like this a lot of people will jump in regardless of the lack of previous experience or knowledge (see: TW3).
 
Sep 4, 2007
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#18
As long as people keep buying $60 games (which they do), the AAA $60 game as we know it is not going anywhere. I'm sure we will see more companies experiment with distribution methods and schedules (see: Hitman), but I don't think the $60 standard will ever truly disappear. Not when people are still buying consoles at least, which I imagine will be a while.

Edit: also I think local hardware is going to be here for at least another gen. Infrastructure still isn't good enough in many places in the U.S. (as an example) to support a non local console and that's a huge market. Then you take into account Asia, non-Western Europe... I don't see it.
The last $60 game I bought was Dark Souls II in March 2014, and even that was the first one in many months for me. I'm down to doing that maybe twice a year on average, now. Just too hard to rationalize and too much money for me to plink down when I have a wealth of content available at lower prices, as well as frequent sales in digital spaces I can hold out for.

My experience surely isn't indicative of any trends but I can't be alone in this.
 
Feb 12, 2009
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Marketing will ALWAYS win out over reputation.

I doubt a large majority of the people who bought MGSV know or care who Kojima is. When a game gets reviews this high and a marketing campaign like this a lot of people will jump in regardless of the lack of previous experience or knowledge (see: TW3).
I said going forward. MGSV is the last real game to come from that soulless husk, and has nothing to do with their current mission statement. Kojima or not people know it's a real ass game. Marketing and hype for MGS5 was there for years. Their marketing over reputation will only work in the short term. Them shitting on the legacy of their IP's and doing nothing with them besides HIT THAT LEVER is not going to form magical long term growth.

They need some raw talent if they even hope to pursue actual games. The outsourcing of Metal Gear will be the first real test, but word of mouth will harm that game before it even comes out.
 
Jun 10, 2012
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#24
Julien believes that consoles will not survive unless they adopt the above model. Publishers also need to throw out the old "long development cycle" and focus on creating games to market quickly and pushing updates/evolutions out later.
So to survive, quality is secondary to rush to market and fixing / updating the Base product once the consumer has paid monies for it.

There will always be a market for consoles. It may be smaller than its peak going forward but an audience for analogue type controls and a home setup ain't going anywhere. To survive, we may see budgets come down but this 'instant hit' publisher and developer culture he's talking about is short sighted beyond belief.

Go fuck yourself Julien.
 
May 3, 2013
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Great thread ZhugeEX!

--

Man, that's such a corporate outlook; really prioritizes games as a products and revenue streams. It's understandable coming from big businesses, but still disheartening.
 
May 27, 2013
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#31
I think the whole point towards e-sports as a source revenue is a total non-factor for a company looking to move into that sector. All of the big competitive games have grown from games and communities that have been around for years -- many have been around more than a decade. While I think you can carve out a small but super dedicated niche with a unique product (something like Smite or Awsomenauts), the scale there is not something I think most big publishers would consider a win. It only makes sense if you already have something that's held up over time and only really needs additional investment (like what Capcom is trying to do with SF5).

So to survive, quality is secondary to rush to market and fixing / updating the Base product once the consumer has paid monies for it.

There will always be a market for consoles. It may be smaller than its peak going forward but an audience for analogue type controls and a home setup ain't going anywhere. To survive, we may see budgets come down but this 'instant hit' publisher and developer culture he's talking about is short sighted beyond belief.

Go fuck yourself Julien.
I would imagine that one of the most terrifying prospects of a big, monolithic game is that you spend however many years working on it in relative secrecy and silence, only to find out that there's no one in the market that wants it. Oops. (Publishers have a number of ways to lower risk here, in areas like market research and focus testing but that's a whole another can of worms). Whereas with a shorter development cycle, that also means that you can change the game more quickly. It's not just creating a turd of a product as quickly as possible and forgetting about it once it's out (although that certainly happens).

The dynamics are also different with F2P games -- it's not good enough to get someone to pay up once, like a traditional retail title. The game needs to stay compelling (read: addictive) enough to keep the paying player paying and playing. That's where a more rapid, iterative development cycle makes sense.
 
May 23, 2013
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#32
First off, you did a really good job setting up the discussion OP :D! All those graphs and explanations did a lot to better understand the discussion you was trying to create. So great work man :D!

Regarding the topic at hand....its interesting they are considering mobile and PC (as both are successful platforms) but both have there issues with quality control and over saturation, so its not wise throwing all your eggs at mobile/PC now :l.

But having a balance of big AAA games, some mobile games, A/AA games on console and PC and spreading IP through other media (cartoons, toys, ect); gives you a lot of room to breath and in turn, can create an environment that encourages creative freedom in all those areas.

I don't see AAA gaming going away, but I could easily see less AAA games coming out; they are expensive and if they bomb, can lose you a lot of money. Otherwise, I don't see anything changing from what is going on now honestly :).

A company that has a solid mixture of all kinds of games would be Ubisoft :). They have there yearly AAA series (Far Cry, Assassins Creed, Watch_Dogs, ect), smaller games (Child of Light, Valiant Hearts: The Great War), mobile games (Rayman Adventures) and even casual games (Just Dance series). They mess up a lot at times, but point still stands; they have a tightly built ship that is the 'model' AAA company :D....if that is a good thing or not, thats up to the person :l.
Thanks very much. Although graphs are from Konami, not me haha.

I think it's important to remember that PC and Mobile is massive in Asia and that Asia has a lot of different buying habits and trends compared to the West so Konami will certainly want to exploit that moving forward. They of course make nods towards the fact that the West is still very much console centric and so I don't think we'll see the end of console games from them, their big AAA titles will remain and any games going to PC should also come to console (not the browser PC games though).

I do agree with what you say though that it's best for a company to perhaps dabble in a bit of everything like Ubisoft have done and then solidify their offerings on all those platforms. One thing Konami said is that you need a social platform for gamers and that's something that rings true imo.

I don't see AAA gaming going away either but I do expect less of them to come out and for them to focus on maximising ARPU and increase sales as well. Basically sell more to the core. I also think there is a huge opportunity for smaller and indie devs to move up the ranks to make it big in console market.

ZhugeEX is on fire with good threads and finds lately. Well done.
Thanks very much, humbled by your words :)

Isn't this the general idea behind the NX Platform (at least based on Iwata's hints & the recent patent)?
It certainly sounds like it based on what we know. It's what I would expect NX to become as well but we do need to wait for Nintendo to confirm all this.

Actually kinda surprised they weren't super obsessed with mobile as the only option. At least they recognize the Red Ocean potential as mobile begins to grow increasingly crowded.

Never thought I'd see strong nods to PC as "growing potential" to Konami.

Yes.
I think any company will realise they can't put all their eggs in one basket. Whilst mobile is massive it's not a guaranteed success for any company. Konami will want to continue their work in the gambling sector and console sector but pour resources into other sectors that can bring them profitability, I think in order to do that they'll scale back on console games as we've already seen.

Best member on NeoGAF. If he gets banned again, I'm going on a hunger strike.
Haha! Thanks for the kind words, but have you seen eltorros's GIF's? He's the best member by default for me :p
 
Apr 22, 2013
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#33
I agree with the need of evolutionary platforms to maintain the user base. I think MS is already going for that. The next Xbox will be a W10 machine for the living room and will run the same games as the Xbox One but better.
 

JordanN

Junior Member
Apr 21, 2012
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#34
So their agenda is basically make everything free-2play and rushing out "instant hits"?

Yeah, I can see why they want to disown consoles because it represents a complete obstacle to that. And I hope it stays that way.
 
Feb 7, 2011
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#35
I agree with Konami. I believe open platforms like PC and mobile will dominate at the end (well they already are ww).

I believe PT/Silent Hills could have been a VR killer app if marketed properly. A wasted opportunity.

Great OP,Thanks. I hope this doesn't devolve in a dumb "Fuck Konami" thread.
 
Feb 17, 2012
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#36
Konami believe that mobile gaming will grow the most over the next few years based on a report from Gartner. The same report shows that handheld console revenue will decrease drastically to the point where by 2017 it accounts for less than 3% of the total video game market.
Goddamn that's depressing.

Also, thank you for putting this together OP. I wanted to get home from work to really sit down and read the whole damn thing.
 
Jul 5, 2011
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#37
Nice thread Zhuge.

What's best about this is that a lot of GAF posters outlined these trends long before, so it's good to see them verified in an official capacity.

I don't doubt the dedicated handheld device drop. And I'm very curious how companies will avoid the Red Ocean on mobile and how they'll address the consistent PC market across multiple territories.

I knew mobile wouldn't be an "escape market" like the PSP was for Japanese developers. Eventually people are going to want better and better graphics and gameplay and they're going to want them for free.
 
Mar 3, 2007
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#39
The idea of evolutionary consoles is sensible at this point (if technically feasible).

iPad success is built on it, where the old apps all carry over for the most part.

When PS2/Wii generations respectively ended, the two platforms went from 150/100 million users in 7/5 years down to zero, and only grew to around 80/15 after 7/3 years.

A PS4.1 would have the benefit of 50m+ users already established, and in 2020 it would be 100m+, in 2025 150m+ etc etc. Growth wouldn't be so high as in launch year, but an established platform with upwards of 200 million users would be a fantastic environment for experimental games, maybe even a return of B-tier a la PS2 days.

There would also be organic turnover where PS4.1 owners upgrade to PS4.5 in 2020, and it would always be ongoing.

I wonder if NX is going down this route with the OS comments.
 
Jan 12, 2013
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#41
It's nice to see Konami's logic so clearly laid out.

The only positive I can glean from it is that they realise the potential pitfalls of scaling back on their technology. At least when they fail to succeed with mobile, they can fall back on that. A shame all their talent will have left by then,
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Dec 9, 2012
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#43
Ugh, if these projections pan out it will be a gross industry. I don't want a gaming future without dedicated hardware, mobile is fine but not for EVERYTHING.

Shit like Game of War and Clash of Clans make millions a day. What do you think they cost to develop vs something like MGSV? Obviously these are edge case scenarios but people are spending lots of money on mobile right now and the games don't cost nearly as much to develop.
 
Jan 15, 2008
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#44
That guy has an amazing remuse holy shit. He organized the entire technical management and pipeline for Ubi AAA factory (he basically kickstarted the AC frenzy) then moved to Eidos and Square with the revivals of Hitman, TR and Deus Ex and after that he went to Konami to work on the Fox Engine with Kojima, it almost sound like he went from global to small haha
 
Jan 20, 2014
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#45
I hope the mobile market implodes, Konami comes crawling back to the console/PC space, and gamers tell the fairweather fucks to go pound salt. None of this will actually come to pass, but a man can dream.
 
Jul 19, 2015
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#46
Gambling and mobile games go well together. A significant amount of freemium games are an equally shameless ripoff whose success is based on psychology rather than on good game design.
 
Oct 14, 2007
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#47
I said it once, I'll say it twice, once gaming goes all digital or all mobile, I will stop gaming, well buying new stuff. I'll just revisit older games or something.
 
Aug 21, 2013
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#48
Only people with short-sightedness (Like those who use this generation as an example) would believe that the future of this industry will still be fixed hardware consoles like the ones that we have today.

This industry has changed more in the past 10 years than in the last 30.

Consoles will change, some day they won't even play discs (Yeah that sucks), maybe they'll have upgradeable parts, maybe they'll come out every 2-3 years, maybe they'll be just a streaming box etc. There's many possibilities, but one that's for sure is that the current console market is not the future.

Whether that ends up being good or bad remains to be seen. I'm not a fan of the mobile market but we'll see where VR ends up going.

I don't like that Konami sits on fantastic IP's and uses them for crap, but I completely understand why.

I said it once, I'll say it twice, once gaming goes all digital or all mobile, I will stop gaming, well buying new stuff. I'll just revisit older games or something.
Hopefully your stance changes dude. We still have many years of gaming and I'm sure we'll get a lot of cool games in the future.

But if you won't be persuaded, there's enough games out already to last you a lifetime haha.
 
May 23, 2013
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#49
I agree with the need of evolutionary platforms to maintain the user base. I think MS is already going for that. The next Xbox will be a W10 machine for the living room and will run the same games as the Xbox One but better.
I can certainly see something to this extent happening. Microsoft are certainly moving in the right direction with games going to both PC and console as well as spin off titles going to mobile and other platforms.

It'll be interesting to see what Microsoft decide to do in the future, especially after their original plans from 2013.

Goddamn that's depressing.

Also, thank you for putting this together OP. I wanted to get home from work to really sit down and read the whole damn thing.
Thanks :)

Yup, handhelds are pretty much dying off on a global scale. They're still popular in some markets and the 3DS is still pushing new games out. But at this point it's just going to be Nintendo putting out dedicated handheld devices and whilst these dedicated handheld devices should be successful in their own right they're going to be a niche in the future.

Nice thread Zhuge.

What's best about this is that a lot of GAF posters outlined these trends long before, so it's good to see them verified in an official capacity.

I don't doubt the dedicated handheld device drop. And I'm very curious how companies will avoid the Red Ocean on mobile and how they'll address the consistent PC market across multiple territories.

I knew mobile wouldn't be an "escape market" like the PSP was for Japanese developers. Eventually people are going to want better and better graphics and gameplay and they're going to want them for free.
Yup, a lot of people have put these theories forward, even I've said some of the things listed in the presentation. Really when it comes to Mobile the company needs to release games that are unique takes on existing IP (In that way that EA have done on mobile) or be straight up ambitious and come up with a new game concept that is easily accessible, and can be marketed + supported well. It's getting increasingly difficult to enter the mobile market these days but if you have even just one hit game it can do wonders.

The idea of evolutionary consoles is sensible at this point (if technically feasible).

iPad success is built on it, where the old apps all carry over for the most part.

When PS2/Wii generations respectively ended, the two platforms went from 150/100 million users in 7/5 years down to zero, and only grew to around 80/15 after 7/3 years.

A PS4.1 would have the benefit of 50m+ users already established, and in 2020 it would be 100m+, in 2025 150m+ etc etc. Growth wouldn't be so high as in launch year, but an established platform with upwards of 200 million users would be a fantastic environment for experimental games, maybe even a return of B-tier a la PS2 days.

There would also be organic turnover where PS4.1 owners upgrade to PS4.5 in 2020, and it would always be ongoing.

I wonder if NX is going down this route with the OS comments.
An evolutionary console is something I've discussed before, certainly in the traditional sense this would be the worst idea ever. Especially if the time to market for each hardware revision is short. But if platform holders are willing to innovate each iteration then it could work, take the gamecube and Wii for example. Whilst they are two separate consoles they're also what I would call a good example of an evolutionary console due to the BC on Wii + innovation to grow the install base. However what they would need to do is ensure the users on the older console aren't left shut off from support/games and that's where the software/ecosystem comes in to play. As you say the iPad is probably the best example of this but it's not a transferable example to the console market imo.

It's certainly an interesting idea and one I can see being explored but I'm not entirely sure how successful a model like that can be at this point.

One thing is for certain though, the install base this gen will be lower than last gen and we've already seen contraction in console market in general leading to less AAA or AA games. We have seen the rise of indies and other smaller developers though and they represent a big opportunity to fill the gap left by the contraction.
 
Jun 9, 2006
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My prediction is that the NX will be the evolutionary console model, a unified and evolving platform that covers both handheld and console.

I think MS can leverage its software expertise and infrastructure to attempt some thing similar with Xbox if they choose too.