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[teh_pwn]

But what will the games cost? $60? $70? $80?

Dollar is about the same it was 5 years ago. If they ask for more, it's because of their own management incompetence. Just because you have more power doesn't mean you need to hire tons of people and tons of computing farms to polish every damn object. Just up AA, AF, resolution, texture size, and reduce load speed.

Why do people still refer to Xbox3 as 720? No way MS is naming it after subHD in an era of consoles that will be defined by 1080p multi-media center boxes. It will probably be:
Xbox 3
Xbox 8
Xbox 1080
Xbox

Xbox 3 might be confusing due to 360, but I don't think they'll abandon Xbox as it's in windows 8.

 

[KageMaru]

Dollar is about the same it was 5 years ago. If they ask for more, it's because of their own management incompetence. Just because you have more power doesn't mean you need to hire tons of people and tons of computing farms to polish every damn object. Just up AA, AF, resolution, texture size, and reduce load speed.

Why do people still refer to Xbox3 as 720? No way MS is naming it after subHD in an era of consoles that will be defined by 1080p multi-media center boxes. It will probably be:
Xbox 3
Xbox 8
Xbox 1080
Xbox

Xbox 3 might be confusing due to 360, but I don't think they'll abandon Xbox as it's in windows 8.

I don't think it's always mismanagement that results in high budgets. GTA4 was rumored to cost $100 million dollars and I never read reports that game suffered management issues. There are quite a few factors that could effect budgets.

Also I use 720 because it's easier to type than Xbox 720. =P though you have a point that it's likely not going to be the name.

 

[jaypah]

Yeah it's been discussed a lot but it's just easy to say 720. Much like saying Xbox 2 before the 360 was announced. Though some used the name NextBox (me included) and that's happening again which is funny.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Regarding PS+, the games that Sony makes available for download are older ones right? More than 6 months old (I really don't know, I don't have the service)? If they are, I wonder how Sony will handle the first year or so of the PS4's life, especially if the rumors of no BC are to be believed. I mean, the games that you get as part of the subscription are considered to be the main value, right?

 

[pieatorium]

Regarding PS+, the games that Sony makes available for download are older ones right? More than 6 months old (I really don't know, I don't have the service)? If they are, I wonder how Sony will handle the first year or so of the PS4's life, especially if the rumors of no BC are to be believed. I mean, the games that you get as part of the subscription are considered to be the main value, right?

They also do some newer downloadables. I could see them offering a bunch of PS3 collections for the first few months to pad it put. Resistance collection, GoW collection, Uncharted etc.etc.

 

[triggaz]

Regarding PS+, the games that Sony makes available for download are older ones right? More than 6 months old (I really don't know, I don't have the service)? If they are, I wonder how Sony will handle the first year or so of the PS4's life, especially if the rumors of no BC are to be believed. I mean, the games that you get as part of the subscription are considered to be the main value, right?

I'm thinking it will be tied to Gakai and what ever cloud solution they offer with there next console.

 

[Mesoian]

I'm thinking it will be tied to Gakai and what ever cloud solution they offer with there next console.

That Gaikai stuff really could be their ace in the hole. But it all relies on how they plan on implementing it.

 

[Der Flatulator]

Dollar is about the same it was 5 years ago. If they ask for more, it's because of their own management incompetence. Just because you have more power doesn't mean you need to hire tons of people and tons of computing farms to polish every damn object. Just up AA, AF, resolution, texture size, and reduce load speed.

Why do people still refer to Xbox3 as 720? No way MS is naming it after subHD in an era of consoles that will be defined by 1080p multi-media center boxes. It will probably be:
Xbox 3
Xbox 8
Xbox 1080
Xbox

Xbox 3 might be confusing due to 360, but I don't think they'll abandon Xbox as it's in windows 8.

The Xbox 360 wasn't 360p though...

In order of likeliness, I think it would be called:

1. Xbox
2. Next Xbox / Nextbox
3. Xbox 720
4. Xbox 8

 

[imjust1n]

I see a next gen xbox out in November and next gen Sony out in February 2014. 4months apart would be good for me especially my pocket.

 

[imjust1n]

The Xbox 360 wasn't 360p though...

In order of likeliness, I think it would be called:

1. Xbox
2. Next Xbox / Nextbox
3. Xbox 720
4. Xbox 8

I like just the xbox name. Like the new ipad... The new xbox. But they won't go that route why because of branding.
If they keep calling their systems xbox it will confuse people. See apple got away with that because there generations that separate them.

I see xbox 8 in their point because of Windows 8 they wanted to family brand everything like Windows Phone 8 windows 8 xbox 8. Idk they might call it something totally different which would be cool too.

 

[imjust1n]

But what will the games cost? $60? $70? $80?

Ehhhh I really hope not economy is not like how it was when those prices were set.
I buy more indie games these days because of cost. I wait for big games to drop in price. Like sales or holiday specials. Unless I Really really really really like the game I will pay the msrp price. Paying 60$ for a game these days suck. 60 bucks can pay for all of my utilities for a month.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

So after looking at various websites/forums for rumours/insider hints I have so far come to the conclusion that the Xbox 720 SoC is made up of:

AMD Jaguar cores
XX-MB IBM eDRAM
AMD GPU

If this does turn out to be true, what sort of mm2 for this SoC would we be looking at assuming 64MB eDRAM? and is a AMD/IBM collaboration even likely?

 

[mrklaw]

I like just the xbox name. Like the new ipad... The new xbox. But they won't go that route why because of branding.
If they keep calling their systems xbox it will confuse people. See apple got away with that because there generations that separate them.

I see xbox 8 in their point because of Windows 8 they wanted to family brand everything like Windows Phone 8 windows 8 xbox 8. Idk they might call it something totally different which would be cool too.

There are 5+ years between generations, and only one between iPads, wouldn't the latter be more confusing if its always 'the new xxx'?

 

[z0m3le]

So after looking at various websites/forums for rumours/insider hints I have so far come to the conclusion that the Xbox 720 SoC is made up of:

AMD Jaguar cores
XX-MB IBM eDRAM
AMD GPU

If this does turn out to be true, what sort of mm2 for this SoC would we be looking at assuming 64MB eDRAM? and is a AMD/IBM collaboration even likely?

from the Wii U tech thread:

We had some discussions on that a few pages ago. From info from Renesas, the eDRAM itself should come to 16.1mm² (if I recall correctly), but apparently there's a large overhead required for wiring/control/etc, so it could be 2x or more that that figure once the overhead's taken into account. Somewhere around 35mm² would probably be a good bet. By my calculations above, that'd be about 219 million transistors.

70mm^2 @40nm

Each bit cell of DRAM is composed of 1 transistor + 1 capacitor (hooked up to word/bit lines).

32MB = 32*8bit/byte*1024*1024 *1 transistor/bit = >268 million transistors.

So 536 million Transistors on ~25-40mm^2 @ 28nm
an HD 7850(70) is 2.8 Billion transistors on 212mm^2 @ 28nm
So a X3 GPU would be 3.4 Billion transistors on ~260mm^2 @ 28nm and draw ~120watts - ~160watts and produce ~1.6 TFLOPs - 2 TFLOPs

All just some sloppy math and it's also based on HD 7000 series, but that rumored HD 8000 series I've shown multiple times that it's source is just guessing, and I've also found it to be quite humorous that it's claiming lower power draw with more shaders on the same process with a larger chip, it's some dark dark magic if that turns out to be true. In fact HD 8000 series will likely not have the GPGPU power of the HD 7000 series, there will be a trade off of lower calculations for higher performance much like Nvidia did with the 600 series over the 500.

 

[mrklaw]

Would 32MB edram be enough if you want to remove as much from the main ram bus as possible (especially if its DDR3)?

 

[Ashes]

from the Wii U tech thread:


70mm^2 @40nm


So 536 million Transistors on ~25-40mm^2 @ 28nm
an HD 7850(70) is 2.8 Billion transistors on 212mm^2 @ 28nm
So a X3 GPU would be 3.4 Billion transistors on ~260mm^2 @ 28nm and draw ~120watts - ~160watts and produce ~1.6 TFLOPs - 2 TFLOPs

All just some sloppy math and it's also based on HD 7000 series, but that rumored HD 8000 series I've shown multiple times that it's source is just guessing, and I've also found it to be quite humorous that it's claiming lower power draw with more shaders on the same process with a larger chip, it's some dark dark magic if that turns out to be true. In fact HD 8000 series will likely not have the GPGPU power of the HD 7000 series, there will be a trade off of lower calculations for higher performance much like Nvidia did with the 600 series over the 500.

The era of gaining more power through shrinkages is drawing closer to an end. There was a Nvidia talk about the future of gpu architecture which talks about this very thing.

 

[z0m3le]

Would 32MB edram be enough if you want to remove as much from the main ram bus as possible (especially if its DDR3)?

It would be enough for 720p with AA, or 1080p w/o AA but if you want 1080p gaming to happen, 64MB would be a lot more useful.

The era of gaining more power through shrinkages is drawing closer to an end. There was a Nvidia talk about the future of gpu architecture which talks about this very thing.

I didn't see that talk, but yeah it makes a lot of sense, the 580GTX was bloated for GPGPU, which is great if that were used in every game today, but computer GPUs only worry about the next year, not years down the road, so a console having GPGPU over pure processing makes sense, while a PC GPU doesn't. Which is why I used HD 7000, it's more likely they will use that graphics series if they are going with a smaller CPU.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

from the Wii U tech thread:


70mm^2 @40nm


So 536 million Transistors on ~25-40mm^2 @ 28nm
an HD 7850(70) is 2.8 Billion transistors on 212mm^2 @ 28nm
So a X3 GPU would be 3.4 Billion transistors on ~260mm^2 @ 28nm and draw ~120watts - ~160watts and produce ~1.6 TFLOPs - 2 TFLOPs

All just some sloppy math and it's also based on HD 7000 series, but that rumored HD 8000 series I've shown multiple times that it's source is just guessing, and I've also found it to be quite humorous that it's claiming lower power draw with more shaders on the same process with a larger chip, it's some dark dark magic if that turns out to be true. In fact HD 8000 series will likely not have the GPGPU power of the HD 7000 series, there will be a trade off of lower calculations for higher performance much like Nvidia did with the 600 series over the 500.

Thanks for that. 260mm^2 would be really good I think. The launch 360's chips total was ~435mm^2.

I do wonder though with such reasonable specs (imo) where Semi Accurate heard that this SoC is >450mm^2?

 

[z0m3le]

Thanks for that. 260mm^2 would be really good I think. The launch 360's chips total was ~435mm^2.

I do wonder though with such reasonable specs (imo) where Semi Accurate heard that this SoC is >450mm^2?

I didn't take into account the CPU, right now the XB3 dev kits are using about 1500mm^2, but if Oban is something really unique and special, 400mm+ would be reasonable... also remember that is 28nm, and iirc Oban was suppose to be 32nm.

Also http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1447163&postcount=239 launch 360 was 358mm^2 without edram, 182mm^2 of that was xenos (just the GPU no edram)

edram has shrunk quite a bit, meaning less die area budget needed for even 64MB over the 10MB found in Xenos.

 

[Death Dealer]

Still lets not place bets on who is going to crash and burn just yet but I will say if Sony cant get it out in at least one region in 2013 then they are boning themselves pretty hard.

This is much more important than power specs IMO. Sony is in trouble if PS4 doesn't launch in time for the 2013 holiday season.

 

[onQ123]

This is much more important than power specs IMO. Sony is in trouble if PS4 doesn't launch in time for the 2013 holiday season.

Says Who?

 

[Sid]

Says Who?

Sales wise they will lag behind the entire gen yet again if this doesn't happen.

 

[onQ123]

Sales wise they will lag behind the entire gen yet again if this doesn't happen.

The Wii & PS3 came out a year after the 360 & they both out paced the 360 sales wise Wii just burnt out early.

 

[thuway]

Sales wise they will lag behind the entire gen yet again if this doesn't happen.

They will lag again if they release a $599 console. There are factors beyond the late launch that affected PS3's sales. Not with standing include- abysmal online, inferior ports, "ps3hasnogamez", and oh- $599.

They should launch six months after the next Xbox to avoid the juggernaut of a advertising campaign Microsoft will launch with the next Xbox. There is no way Sony can fight it. If they do launch later- they should attempt to gain a performance edge as well.

 

[Sid]

The Wii & PS3 came out a year after the 360 & they both out paced the 360 sales wise Wii just burnt out early.

What are the odds of PS4 having a hook like the WII? IMO it's pretty close to 0 and even now isn't the PS3 still behind the 360?

They will lag again if they release a $599 console. There are factors beyond the late launch that affected PS3's sales. Not with standing include- abysmal online, inferior ports, "ps3hasnogamez", and oh- $599.

They should launch six months after the next Xbox to avoid the juggernaut of a advertising campaign Microsoft will launch with the next Xbox. There is no way Sony can fight it. If they do launch later- they should attempt to gain a performance edge as well.

Right $599...the thing is even if they are at a comparable price point the chances for the PS4 overtaking the 720 during the first few years at least will be pretty slim,the PS brand isn't what it used to be back in the 2005.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Maybe Sony can have a paper launch for the Fall. I too think it's important they get it out in 2013, even if it's only in one territory... just the fact that it's out and getting coverage from the news outlets will show people it exists and that it's coming out soon.

 

[Biggzy]

The Wii & PS3 came out a year after the 360 & they both out paced the 360 sales wise Wii just burnt out early.

As I have noted previously, it might be more beneficial for Sony to launch a couple of months after Microsoft, as they can get away from the marketing machine that will inevitably kick in with the release of the next Xbox. However, the Xbox brand is an entirely different beast now to what it was at the start of this gen, so Sony shouldn't wait too long to release the next Playstation.

What are the odds of PS4 having a hook like the WII? IMO it's pretty close to 0 and even now isn't the PS3 still behind the 360?.

It still appears to be behind the 360. Which is very surprising because I can remember a lot of people on GAF predicting that the PS3 will overtake the 360 within a year maybe two.

 

[Sid]

Maybe Sony can have a paper launch for the Fall. I too think it's important they get it out in 2013, even if it's only in one territory... just the fact that it's out and getting coverage from the news outlets will show people it exists and that it's coming out soon.

Yeah i still think TLOU being released in May points to a worldwide release in 2013 but if not they should try to cover japan at least.

 

[i-Lo]

Before we carried away with the whole delay thing two questions are needed to be answered:

1. Given it's going to be based on (existing) 28nm fab, what hardware could possibly cause a delay over its competitor who are also utilizing custom designs based?
2. Would a delay of around 6 months (at worst) be that detrimental to PS4's sales figures in the larger scheme of things (for the next 6 years)?

 

[Sid]

Before we carried away with the whole delay thing two questions are needed to be answered:

1. Given it's going to be based on (existing) 28nm fab, what hardware could possibly cause a delay over its competitor who are also utilizing custom designs based?
   [*]Would a delay of around 6 months (at worst) be that detrimental to PS4's sales figures in the larger scheme of things (for the next 6 years)?

Yes they might just have to gracefully exit the hardware market

Spoiler

j/k

 

[Biggzy]

Before we carried away with the whole delay thing two questions are needed to be answered:

1. Given it's going to be based on (existing) 28nm fab, what hardware could possibly cause a delay over its competitor who are also utilizing custom designs based?
2. Would a delay of around 6 months (at worst) be that detrimental to PS4's sales figures in the larger scheme of things (for the next 6 years)?

From what I have read only the potential use of DDR4 might delay the launch, or the higher densities of GDDR5.

Someone else might be able to shed some more light on the matter.

 

[i-Lo]

Yes they might just have to gracefully exit the hardware market

Spoiler

j/k

LmAO! I see whacha did thar! XD

 

[netBuff]

I like just the xbox name. Like the new ipad... The new xbox. But they won't go that route why because of branding.
If they keep calling their systems xbox it will confuse people. See apple got away with that because there generations that separate them.

I see xbox 8 in their point because of Windows 8 they wanted to family brand everything like Windows Phone 8 windows 8 xbox 8. Idk they might call it something totally different which would be cool too.

"The new iPad" lasted for six months, Apple has now discarded that moniker for the products successor, the iPad 4. Either they deliberately tried to confuse consumers so there wouldn't be much public discontent because their "new" tablet was obsoleted within half a year or it wasn't effective from a marketing perspective (probably the former).

 

[onQ123]

What are the odds of PS4 having a hook like the WII? IMO it's pretty close to 0 and even now isn't the PS3 still behind the 360?


Right $599...the thing is even if they are at a comparable price point the chances for the PS4 overtaking the 720 during the first few years at least will be pretty slim,the PS brand isn't what it used to be back in the 2005.

both at around 70 Million with the PS3 coming out a year later can only mean that the PS3 out paced the Xbox 360 in sales.

 

[Sid]

both at around 70 Million with the PS3 coming out a year later can only mean that the PS3 out paced the Xbox 360 in sales.

Sony would prefer a clear lead to their competitors and for that they have to launch their console next fall IMO.

 

[Biggzy]

Sony would prefer a clear lead to their competitors and for that they have to launch their console next fall IMO.

Sony would prefer a close to profitable console right out of the gate.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I didn't take into account the CPU, right now the XB3 dev kits are using about 1500mm^2, but if Oban is something really unique and special, 400mm+ would be reasonable... also remember that is 28nm, and iirc Oban was suppose to be 32nm.

Also http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1447163&postcount=239 launch 360 was 358mm^2 without edram, 182mm^2 of that was xenos (just the GPU no edram)

edram has shrunk quite a bit, meaning less die area budget needed for even 64MB over the 10MB found in Xenos.

Ha yes I missed that...but even including that and assuming it is a chip >450mm^2, what could be added to make up the additional ~150mm^2+ difference.

A lot more eDRAM than we think?
BC?
More Jaguar cores?

 

[i-Lo]

From what I have read only the potential use of DDR4 might delay the launch, or the higher densities of GDDR5.

Someone else might be able to shed some more light on the matter.

Chances are the both the console makers may be utilizing DDR4 (makes more sense in the long run). Thus if there is a delay, shouldn't both competitors suffer equally?

 

[Sid]

Sony would prefer a close to profitable console right out of the gate.

I don't think a few months would make or break the profitability scenario for the PS4.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Would a delay of around 6 months (at worst) be that detrimental to PS4's sales figures in the larger scheme of things (for the next 6 years)?

No, not necessarily, it would just give them a slower start.

 

[Biggzy]

I don't think a few months would make or break the profitability scenario for the PS4.

I was talking about that Sony are probably more concerned with not hemorrhaging money on their next console like they did initially with the PS3, rather than 'beating' Microsoft.

 

[z0m3le]

Ha yes I missed that...but even including that and assuming it is a chip >450mm^2, what could be added to make up the additional ~150mm^2+ difference.

A lot more eDRAM than we think?
BC?
More Jaguar cores?

On my phone, so sorry in advance, but using 32nm and having something other than jaguar cores could be a factor, the dev kits are 16threads from what I've heard which for AMD means 16 cores, but they could do something crazy for BC and add xenon, which would mean the 8 jaguar cores + xenon = 14threads. A reason to have 16 threads, especially considering they are using 2 server CPUs from either ibm or Intel. That might close the mm gap you see there.

 

[Sid]

I was talking about that Sony are probably more concerned with not hemorrhaging money on their next console like they did initially with the PS3, rather than 'beating' Microsoft.

Yeah a sony rep himself said that they won't spend the R & D they did on the PS3 for any of their next home consoles ever and even going by the rumors PS4 will be nowhere near as exotic as the PS3 was in 2006 but will still be pretty powerful.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

I was talking about that Sony are probably more concerned with not hemorrhaging money on their next console like they did initially with the PS3, rather than 'beating' Microsoft.

If they can't compete with Microsoft, they *will* bleed money, too. I don't have any doubt that the PS4 will be on the same level as the Xbox 3, and that it will be released at roughly the same time.

 

[Biggzy]

If they can't compete with Microsoft, they *will* bleed money, too.

If they lose money like they did with the PS3 there might not be be a Sony Computer Entertainment division. Sony need the PS4 to make money very quickly.

This doesn't mean the next Playstation is not going to be powerful, it means it won't be as 'exotic' as the PS3.

 

[Mario007]

If they can't compete with Microsoft, they *will* bleed money, too. I don't have any doubt that the PS4 will be on the same level as the Xbox 3, and that it will be released at roughly the same time.

If you want to know Sony's strategy, look at Vita. Nothing really is changed, they still want to have a powerful machine but they are better at using off-the-shelf components.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

On my phone, so sorry in advance, but using 32nm and having something other than jaguar cores could be a factor, the dev kits are 16threads from what I've heard which for AMD means 16 cores, but they could do something crazy for BC and add xenon, which would mean the 8 jaguar cores + xenon = 14threads. A reason to have 16 threads, especially considering they are using 2 server CPUs from either ibm or Intel. That might close the mm gap you see there.

Yeah I really do think Microsoft have got something funky cooking. It's interesting that for these upcoming consoles the roles seem to be reversing compared to PS3/360.

Seems that Microsoft are the ones going for a more exotic chip/SoC over Sony being more conservative/conventional.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

If they lose money like they did with the PS3 there might not be be a Sony Computer Entertainment division. Sony need the PS4 to make money very quickly.

I don't think they need to invest so much money like they did with the PS3. Microsoft didn't, and it worked for them. But I think they will not release a console which is profitable from day 1, they will do what's necessary to compete with the new Xbox - they can't afford to ignore the competition. And Sony's financial situation isn't as bad as you think, they can easily afford a competitive console. If they have a plan on how to become profitable, everything is alright. It's only bad if they are bleeding money and don't have a plan.

 

[MrCunningham]

Which is the second most powerful PC on the market today?

This is the first thing that entered into my mind when I read this thread. And for that matter what is the first? Some PC running three 690's in SLI with an i7 core and 32GB's of DDR3 2800 or something? With all the thousands of PC hardware configurations out there, it's hard to rank best to worst in any real linear fashion.

 

[i-Lo]

I don't think they need to invest so much money like they did with the PS3. Microsoft didn't, and it worked for them. But I think they will not release a console which is profitable from day 1, they will do what's necessary to compete with the new Xbox - they can't afford to ignore the competition. And Sony's financial situation isn't as bad as you think, they can easily afford a competitive console. If they have a plan on how to become profitable, everything is alright. It's only bad if they are bleeding money and don't have a plan.

Out of curiosity, wasn't Vita priced at $250 to be profitable from day 1?