I've been so confident in that $500 or less price point up until this morning. The $1500 for complete package quote, Palmer's unending comments regarding just how heavily subsidized the damn things will be.
And then they gave away free headsets to all Kickstarter backers.
As heavily as Oculus and Facebook will be subsidizing these headsets, giving away a product which Luckey has said should rightly cost $1000 to make a profit on is absurd. They're giving them to Kickstarter backers for a reason -- to ensure the biggest supporters of Oculus continue to be so going forward.
But it also implies that they're not confident all of those backers would otherwise have bought in on CV1. Which if the headset was $300-400, or even up to $500 doesn't make much sense. With those who Oculus considers their most core supporters taken care of, I'm persuaded they'll charge more than expected to the general consumer.
There's also that comment from Palmer insinuating that they aren't sure they'll sell out of their initial supply of headsets. Again, from what I've seen anything $500 or less is almost certain to sell like hot cakes.
No, I'm now in the $600 camp. I'd love to be surprised though.