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May 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 10

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, June 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 5-June 1 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Monday, June 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT) NPD release delayed for E3

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in May:


April's Results - thanks to Nirolak, Aquamarine, jvm, and a variety of angles

Nirolak said:
Hardware:

Xbox 360: 130K (-44.9%) [NPD: Top selling platform, so everything including handhelds is less.]
Click to expand...
Aquamarine said:
Here are the alleged numbers for April 2013 NPD:

3DS - 113,000
Wii U - 36,000
PS3 - 100,000
Click to expand...

jvm said:
Here's my shot in the dark.

PSV = 15K
Click to expand...

April 2012 NPD thread
May 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
In accordance with end-of-generation fatigue, I expect the seventh-generation 360 and PS3 consoles to repeat their precipitous, >30% YOY declines in the May 2013 NPD. Most notably, the continued lack of meaningful new releases for both systems, market saturation, the hype around the May 21st XBONE unveil, the hype surrounding the upcoming E3 Expo, the heightened fervor around the PS4, and other factors, are determinants in this process.

For 7th-gen consoles:

360: 104,000 (-35% YOY)
PS3: 88,000 (-32% YOY)

I expect the 3DS’s negative trend to continue without any significant releases that, in my opinion, will move hardware sufficiently enough to bolster sales of the platform. I expect Donkey Kong Country Returns 3DS—the only major 3DS release in May—to underperform relative to other Nintendo titles given its status as a budget title and a late port. Likewise, with no significant releases I expect a continued downturn for Vita prospects as well.

For 8th-gen handhelds:

3DS: 94,000 (-17% YOY)
VITA: 13,000

And lastly, regarding the Wii U, I expect a persistent regression in sales after the freefall we experienced in the April 2013 NPD, although not nearly as extreme. I believe ~7,000 per week is approaching a baseline for the console, although I will keep my mind open to further declines, given the frail prospects for the system until Holiday 2013. Also, I see no correlation between the widespread anger towards the XBONE's anti-consumer policies, and a renewed excitement in the Wii U platform that directly translates into increased sales throughout the May 2013 reporting period.

For 8th-gen consoles:

WII U: 30,000


Here are the numbers in proper format for tallying:

[360] 104K
[3DS] 94K
[PS3] 88K
[PSV] 13K
[WIU] 30K
 
K

kswiston

Member
I expect this to be the worst month for consoles in a long time.

[360] 115k
[3DS] 95k
[PS3] 90k
[PSV] 15k
[WIU] 33k
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
kswiston said:
I expect this to be the worst month for consoles in a long time.

[360] 115k
[3DS] 95k
[PS3] 90k
[PSV] 15k
[WIU] 33k
Click to expand...

Indeed.

Take an equivalent point of time that demonstrates end-of-generation fatigue, like May 2005/6:

May 2005 XBOX: 129K
May 2013 360: 104K (my prediction)

May 2006 GBA: 158K
May 2013 3DS: 94K (my prediction)

May 2006 PS2: 232K
May 2013 PS3: 88K (my prediction)

May 2006 GC: 33K
May 2013 Wii U: 30K (my prediction)


Clearly, the 7th -> 8th gen transition has been much harder on the market than the 6th -> 7th gen transition.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
jvm said:
You mean sales would go up, as people think "well, I ain't buying the next machine!" :D

Just kidding.
Click to expand...
Heh, certainly possible. Was there immediate impact on the Wii when Nintendo announced the Wii U - or was it more gradual?

I was also thinking software; if people know their games aren't going to be usable on the new machines will they buy less?

I know we don't get digital info, but I'm curious whether the lack of BC for both systems will stymie purchasing there as well since the content probably won't be transferable.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
shinobi602 said:
Poor Wii U and Vita :-/
Click to expand...

This month, ~75% of the people here on GAF are reporting a decline from April for Wii U.

Hopefully this will be the last reporting period where we get nonstop, month-over-month drops for the Wii U. That is, Nintendo's reveals at E3 should spur greater adoption in June.


shinra-bansho said:
Heh, certainly possible. Was there immediate impact on the Wii when Nintendo announced the Wii U - or was it more gradual?

I was also thinking software; if people know their games aren't going to be usable on the new machines will they buy less?

I know we don't get digital info, but I'm curious whether the lack of BC for both systems will stymie purchasing there as well since the content probably won't be transferable.
Click to expand...

When the Wii U was unveiled? Not particularly, no. But of course, the Wii U is a specialized case due to the mountains of confusion surrounding its unveil, and the immediate apathy from the casual market.

I don't believe backwards compatibility will significantly affect adoption...consider the initial limited BC options of the Xbox 360, with fewer than 200 titles available for BC at launch. Despite spotty BC, Xbox 360 sales continued to be constrained by lack of supply for months after launch.

But yes, I do think Microsoft's greatly diminished focus for Xbox 360 / Kinect advertising, the May 21st unveil, and a complete shift to XBONE / Kinect 2.0 advertising will have an adverse effect on 360 sales in May.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Aquamarine said:
I don't believe backwards compatibility will significantly affect adoption...consider the initial limited BC options of the Xbox 360, with fewer than 200 titles available for BC at launch. Despite spotty BC, Xbox 360 sales continued to be constrained by lack of supply for months after launch.
Click to expand...
Oh, I don't think BC or lack of will affect adoption either. But I'm wondering if the future systems not having compatibility with both retail and digital purchases on current systems is affecting current system software sales at all. I.e. do I want to buy The Last of Us if it won't be playable on my PS4.
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Aquamarine said:
This month, ~75% of the people here on GAF are reporting a decline from April for Wii U.

Hopefully this will be the last reporting period where we get nonstop, month-over-month drops for the Wii U. That is, Nintendo's reveals at E3 should spur greater adoption in June.
Click to expand...

The Wii U actually had some games in May (compared to just ONE in April). Even though it wasn't a huge amount and none have/will set the world on fire, something's better than nothing. Therefore I predicted a slight increase (to 40k). I think every month should be more than the last from here until the end of 2013 (if that trend doesn't start in May, it'll surely start in June... you'd think... and I guess July could be tough in the U.S. as well). It's the size of the increase that is yet to be seen, and will be crucial.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
Reading these numbers is just depressing, god damn at the state of the industry right now. Those vita and wii U numbers are just shockingly low.
 
B

Barack Lesnar

Banned
AdventureRacing said:
Reading these numbers is just depressing, god damn at the state of the industry right now. Those vita and wii U numbers are just shockingly low.
Click to expand...

This gen is almost 8 years old for the 360 and almost 7 for the PS3. This has never happened before, a gen has never gone this long. I think the numbers are fine considering that.
 
G

Gianni Merryman

Member
AdventureRacing said:
Reading these numbers is just depressing, god damn at the state of the industry right now. Those vita and wii U numbers are just shockingly low.
Click to expand...

No big releases this month as far as I know, so I think it's reasonable to expect both to drop a little, and the same goes for Xbox360 and PS3 methinks.
 
O

Opus Angelorum

Member
Heavy said:
This gen is almost 8 years old for the 360 and almost 7 for the PS3. This has never happened before, a gen has never gone this long. I think the numbers are fine considering that.
Click to expand...

Perhaps but the Wii U and PSVita haven't even been on the market for two years and they are already stagnant.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
June is a 5-week month. If the Wii U still shows a M/M decline in June, then its situation will be even more dire than it looks currently. If it increases it won't have anything to do with E3 unless there is a price-drop announced, effective immediately. The Wii U needs to be price-competitive with the PS3/360.
 
D

DrWong

Member
[360] 100K
[3DS] 105K
[PS3] 85K
[PSV] 15K
[WIU] 30K

I'm still betting on the 3DS. Risky (because only one big release for the month) but I need points and if there's a system I can see resisting better right now it's this one.
 
D

donny2112

Member
So the May NPD release is delayed for E3. Not sure about changing the cutoff date for predictions, though. On the one hand, that makes the cutoff a week before NPD release. On the other hand, if the cutoff is delayed, some people will delay predicting, and with E3 madness, would be more likely to forget to predict altogether. Leaning toward leaving the cutoff where it is for now. Thoughts?
 
G

Goldmund

Member
[360] 108,000
[3DS] 96,000
[PS3] 83,000
[PSV] 13,000
[WIU] 28,000

donny2112 said:
So the May NPD release is delayed for E3. Not sure about changing the cutoff date for predictions, though. On the one hand, that makes the cutoff a week before NPD release. On the other hand, if the cutoff is delayed, some people will delay predicting, and with E3 madness, would be more likely to forget to predict altogether. Leaning toward leaving the cutoff where it is for now. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Yup, keep the deadline. I would certainly have delayed my predictions and then forgotten about them altogether.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
donny2112 said:
So the May NPD release is delayed for E3. Not sure about changing the cutoff date for predictions, though. On the one hand, that makes the cutoff a week before NPD release. On the other hand, if the cutoff is delayed, some people will delay predicting, and with E3 madness, would be more likely to forget to predict altogether. Leaning toward leaving the cutoff where it is for now. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I also vouch for keeping the deadline. I'd almost even move it to June 9th because of the following events:

Microsoft's Pre-E3 Press Conference: June 10th, 8:45 AM PDT
EA's Pre-E3 Press Conference: June 10th, 1:00 PM PDT
Ubisoft's Pre-E3 Press Conference: June 10th, 1:30 PM PDT
Sony's Pre-E3 Press Conference: June 10th, 6:00 PM PDT

^ GAF will be down for pretty much the whole day on the 10th, so it doesn't seem very economical to have the deadline right in the middle of that madness.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Thanks for the comments. Will go ahead and leave the cutoff where it is, then.

On the pre-E3 media conferences, the cutoff happens to fall an hour before Sony's E3 conference and ~7 hours after Microsoft's conference will probably end. If had thought about it beforehand, might've moved the deadline up to Sunday night initially, but don't want to cut short the originally advertised time, if possible.
 
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