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[phez]

Well, today a 3rd grade student told me he got Pokemon Platinum. I asked him "so how is it?" and he said it's really boring. He said "I's the same as diamond" He looked really bummed about it. I wonder if that's the general reaction to this game. Word of mouth like that could remove some of the legs.


And now based on what one kid told me I predict 600,005 sales.

Spoiler

I hope VGChaaaaatzz doesn't steal my scientific sales data

time for some crazy maths involving world birth rates and pokemon release schedules.

 

[donny2112]

1st week sales from Famitsu of past 3rd Pokemon versions.

GBOY Pokemon Yellow Edition: Special Pikachu Edition 851,091
GBOY Pokemon Crystal 707,580
GBA Pokemon Emerald 643,987

Conclusion: 1 million 1st week is an unreasonable expectation. ~600K would fit the trend, but I'd be more optimistic considering Diamond/Pearl is slightly outpacing Ruby/Sapphire.

Prediction: 695K

 

[cvxfreak]

I think Emerald actually beat Crystal though (on top of it releasing the same year as FRLG), so higher sales of the initial versions aren't always an indicator.

 

[Vinnk]

One thing that I have found is that a lot of my students who were "hardcore" Pokemon players when Diamond and Perl came out have now moved on to Monster Hunter. Its not necessarily because Pokemon is less popular (the recent movie was a big hit) but the kids are older and to look "cool" they move to the more mature looking Monster Hunter.

The question that I am interested in is "Are the younger kids going to fill their shoes? and make this new pokemon a big hit too?" The ads on weekend television seemed to be targeting a slightly younger demographic this time.

Also recently I saw a pokemon TV add targeted at 20 something adults. It was like "do you remember Pokemon" and then it showed a clip of the original black and white GB version. Then it said something to the effect of "there is a new pokemon game on the DS" and showed a very similar battle but with the enhanced graphics of the DS of course. It's interesting that they seem to be bypassing the middle school/high school demographic and are going to little kids/adults with their advertising.

Just some observations.

 

[Jonnyram]

Yeah, I'm not sure if the new ad campaign is going to work all that well. It didn't really come of as being natural to me, and I think adults have more than enough games to be playing on DS already, without getting into something which feels quite immature in comparison. Still, the game will always be popular with kids, and those kids' parents will occasionally play alongside them. I think two years from Diamond/Pearl to Platinum is a little too long, but it was the same with Emerald, so maybe Nintendo thinks it pays off.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The question that I am interested in is "Are the younger kids going to fill their shoes? and make this new pokemon a big hit too?"

Well, this is something that's been going on for a long time. The kids you're talking about who moved from Pokémon to Monster Hunter weren't even around when the originals released.

 

[AnimeTheme]

I wonder if he's making any money off of that.

I don't see how he can't make money off his shits. Just look at the ads on his site. I don't think he needs to spend anything (other than some free Internet searches) to get his numbers.

 

[Jokeropia]

Yeah, but when I was babelfishing sinobi the other day I think I read something about him predicting the game to sell ~1 million first week.

I think that might have been shipment data. (Presumably intended to last a bit longer than two days.)

 

[Datschge]

Not sure why this topic came up in sales age of all places, but I don't like to cross-post responses either...

I blame Datschge for filling my head with stupid misinformation.

Nice way of forcing me to response instead looking up the readily available data yourself.

Tales Studio is more than "Team Destiny" and "Team Symphonia", and in fact Namco has been moving away from specifically using those labels because they seem to like moving staff around more freely lately.

Afaik neither Namco nor Tales Studio ever used the team names publically except in informal ways (like in interviews).

It's not misinformation, it's just rather dated. Back then based on what we know it was totally logical speculation to think there might be a third team forming within Tales Studios. But now with the Tales of Hearts staff list available, I feel it's much more likely that ToSKoR was a ToL-like deal where they put together a "special" team to fill the void when their main staff leads are all busy on other projects.

Eh, dated? I made the statement grandjedi6 linked to while I transcribed the staff listing of ToS-R (which I linked to in that thread later on), and unless you want to claim to have any more reliable source it's not dated at all.

Also talking about it as "ToL-like deal" is pretty stupid and totally misleading: In the case of ToL we know that the only people with previous Tales experience were the director Yuichiro Sadahiro and the producer Jun Toyoda (that's a whopping two people) both by Namco, with no single actual previous Tales (Wolfteam/Telenet or Tales Studio) developer. Even the still widespread claim of it including team Soul Calibur members is mostly bunk as there were less than a hand full people in minor positions involved in both.
Now ToS-R has 73 people listed for Tales Studio, of which 38 are common Tales Studio people (many veterans, most of which worked on 2D games before), 6 are 3D specific Tales people ("Team Symphonia") and 29 are new (of which two were also involved in ToV). (For comparison, ToS had 89 Tales Studio people credited of which 52 were new back then.) That's not what I'd call a "totally fresh unknown team" (unlike for ToL). What's new is the lead Akihiro Arahori, the first from outside to instantly get a lead position since when Takashi Hasegawa (now "Team Symphonia" lead) joined Telenet for Cybernetic Empire in 1999.

 

[Psychotext]

Did MS actually manage to get any 360s into Japan to go with the price cut? I haven't seen any discussion of availability this week.

 

[PantherLotus]

Did MS actually manage to get any 360s into Japan to go with the price cut? I haven't seen any discussion of availability this week.

I'm not sure, but I'll make a killer prediction for this week's 360 sales:

.5k-6k.

you can bank it.

 

[rykomatsu]

Did MS actually manage to get any 360s into Japan to go with the price cut? I haven't seen any discussion of availability this week.

my preorder (arcade) hasn't been fulfilled...i ordered prior to 9/11 and well...no word yet on when it'd ship...take this however you want

fking rrod'd ntsc-j system...

 

[duckroll]

Eh, dated? I made the statement grandjedi6 linked to while I transcribed the staff listing of ToS-R (which I linked to in that thread later on), and unless you want to claim to have any more reliable source it's not dated at all.

Dated as in it's a few months ago. That was before we got the ToH credits, which clearly show that bam it's ANOTHER new internal team. Unless you think there are now 4 permanent teams in Tales Studio, which I think is quite a stretch.

Also talking about it as "ToL-like deal" is pretty stupid and totally misleading: In the case of ToL we know that the only people with previous Tales experience were the director Yuichiro Sadahiro and the producer Jun Toyoda (that's a whopping two people) both by Namco, with no single actual previous Tales (Wolfteam/Telenet or Tales Studio) developer. Even the still widespread claim of it including team Soul Calibur members is mostly bunk as there were less than a hand full people in minor positions involved in both.
Now ToS-R has 73 people listed for Tales Studio, of which 38 are common Tales Studio people (many veterans, most of which worked on 2D games before), 6 are 3D specific Tales people ("Team Symphonia") and 29 are new (of which two were also involved in ToV). (For comparison, ToS had 89 Tales Studio people credited of which 52 were new back then.) That's not what I'd call a "totally fresh unknown team" (unlike for ToL). What's new is the lead Akihiro Arahori, the first from outside to instantly get a lead position since when Takashi Hasegawa (now "Team Symphonia" lead) joined Telenet for Cybernetic Empire in 1999.

I classify ToL, ToS:KoR and ToH under the same umbrella, while you're right that ToL was barely Tales Studio, it was still what Namco called an internal Tales game. I don't for a moment believe right now that the ToS:KoR team is going to work on another game in the same way the "Team Destiny" and "Team Symphonia" have worked on game after game with a very consistant staff of the same lead planner, art and programming staff, etc. Instead they were staff put together to fill a void.

Ishizuka and Hasegawa keep their respective core teams very close to them, there's no evidence that these new teams at Tales Studio will stick together in the same way. I think it's much more likely that instead of forming new teams within Tales Studio, they're simply creating temporary teams with whatever staff they can afford based on schedules and timing.

 

[Datschge]

I classify ToL, ToS:KoR and ToH under the same umbrella, while you're right that ToL was barely Tales Studio, it was still what Namco called an internal Tales game.

Sorry, while everything else you wrote there is fine, discussible and justifiable, this part is pure BS. Tales Studio is and always has been physically separate from Namco/NBGI. ToL had nothing to do at all with Tales Studio, not a single person of Tales Studio was involved in ToL (TotT and all Alfa Tales games have more Tales Studio people credited than the zero ones in ToL). The only Tales games called "internally" developed were ToL and the two Fandom games, since those were done internally by Namco (duh!). The situation with ToS:KoR and ToH (whether temporal or permanent) is completely different. That you even try to argue otherwise boggels my mind. =P

 

[duckroll]

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20080917-00000013-maiall-game

Diamond sold 967,675 copies in 2 days.

And Datschge, ToL sucks balls shit. Let's just leave it at that. If that game didn't exist we wouldn't even need to discuss this!

 

[cvxfreak]

HOLY FUCKING CRAP

I think this news deserves it's own thread.

 

[JaMarco]

Diamond sold 967,675 copies in 2 days.

holy fucking shit

 

[Rpgmonkey]

Platinum almost went platinum (har har) in less than half a week...

Wow.

 

[duckroll]

Oh, it's Platinum, my bad. First Datschge owns me, then I fuck this up. I'm worthless today guys, sorry. :lol

 

[PantherLotus]

Oh, it's Platinum, my bad. First Datschge owns me, then I fuck this up. I'm worthless today guys, sorry. :lol

you will be relegated henceforth to being just a mod

Speaking of which, does scarlet patrol these parts any longer?

 

[cvxfreak]

Yeah, I'm not sure if the new ad campaign is going to work all that well. It didn't really come of as being natural to me, and I think adults have more than enough games to be playing on DS already, without getting into something which feels quite immature in comparison. Still, the game will always be popular with kids, and those kids' parents will occasionally play alongside them. I think two years from Diamond/Pearl to Platinum is a little too long, but it was the same with Emerald, so maybe Nintendo thinks it pays off.

Well, I think your fears are for naught.

 

[PantherLotus]

Well, I think your fears are for naught.

It does look silly in retrospect, doesn't it?

 

[duckroll]

Well, I think your fears are for naught.

And another example why ioi is lolz.

 

[icecream]

Price Drop Effect: 360 Top in Weekly Sales

-Enterbrain/Famitsu numbers
-9/8～9/14
-28,681 hardware units sold
-86,708 copies of Infinite Undiscovery sold
-360 LTD at 717,275
-Wii sold 27,057
-PS3 sold 8,050

 

[creamsugar]

famitsu 9/8 ~ 9/14

360 - 28,681
Wii - 27,057
PS3 - 8,050

Infinite Undiscovery - 86,708

 

[Eteric Rice]

famitsu 9/8 ~ 9/14

360 - 28,681
Wii - 27,057
PS3 - 8,050

Infinite Undiscovery - 86,708

wat

WAT

OH GOD I CAN'T FIND MY SEDATIVES SOMEONE HELPGRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...

 

[cvxfreak]

OH SNAP!

Who would've thought months ago that Japan would make the difference between worldwide sales between the 360 and the PS3 in the 360's favor? :lol

 

[cw_sasuke]

damn, wii just got pWned....be 360 ? HOLY SHIT

 

[test_account]

Xbox 360 outselling the PS3 and the Wii both at the same week? Who thought that would ever happend?

Infinite Undiscovery sold about 70k the first day it seems that it was pretty frontloaded if it sold 86,708 the first week. Unless there were limited supply of the game of course.

 

[manzo]

Hahaha, holy shit! Streams crossed!

 

[Loudninja]

It seems the price drop help the 360

Infinite Undiscovery did not sale much after the first day,I thought it would at least match TOV numbers.

 

[manzo]

It seems the price drop help the 360

Infinite Undiscovery did not sale much after the first day,I thought it would at least match TOV numbers.

IU is destined to be in the price-drop "wagon" before the end of this month.

 

[sankao]

famitsu 9/8 ~ 9/14

360 - 28,681
Wii - 27,057
PS3 - 8,050

Infinite Undiscovery - 86,708

Where is the peter moore all according to the master plan gif when you need it ?

 

[Majmun]

Whoa, X360 is doing good this week. Outselling Wii and Ps3. Who would've thought that?

I guess MS needs to invest even more in RPG's. Star Ocean 4 will do great numbers also...

It's really weird to see all those RPG's being released on X360 instead of the Ps3. :lol

 

[BishopLamont]

famitsu 9/8 ~ 9/14

360 - 28,681
Wii - 27,057
PS3 - 8,050

Infinite Undiscovery - 86,708

See donny? 2 weeks ago you doubted me, and here we are!

 

[nextgeneration]

Hmm, at this rate, maybe 360 can reach a million. Panther - remember how you said that 360 would never ever reach a million? ;p

 

[Eteric Rice]

Nintendo needs to do something nao.

 

[Paracelsus]

It's really weird to see all those RPG's being released on X360 instead of the Ps3.

Fact is that those Jrpg sure help MS, but sure as crap ain't helping themselves.

I also wonder how a game that sort of bombed gave a bigger boost than ToV.

Maybe duckroll is right, maybe it's the price cut that helped IU, not the opposite.

Hmm, at this rate, maybe 360 can reach a million. Panther - remember how you said that 360 would never ever reach a million? ;p

There are just a couple more Jrpg left that could have a similar effect (25-30k). MS needs to moneyhat more to reach a million within the 2010.

 

[speedpop]

Good sales for 360, the console definitely needs a bump in Japan but it's a shame to know that it'll eventually dwindle again in the coming weeks.

 

[nextgeneration]

There are just a couple more Jrpg left that could have a similar effect (25-30k). MS needs to moneyhat more to reach a million within the 2010.

I wouldn't bet money that 360 would reach a million, but it sure would be interesting to see it happen, though. Makes for a more interesting Media Create thread.

 

[Hammer24]

Wow, now lets see to what numbers the 360 falls back to. Higher median of around 8k possible?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Ha! Wow

It's not going to be sustained, but it's remarkable to see it happening.

 

[nextgeneration]

There are just a couple more Jrpg left that could have a similar effect (25-30k). MS needs to moneyhat more to reach a million within the 2010.

Ok, just did the math, and the 360 actually has a shot at reaching 1 million by 2010. Between now and 2010, if my math is correct, the 360 would need to sell an average of around 2,375 units per week to reach that 1 million figure - certainly within reach.

 

[AnimeTheme]

It's really weird to see all those RPG's being released on X360 instead of the Ps3. :lol

Seriously, I dunno what the fuck SCEJ had in mind, considering the significant lead they had in Japan. Before knowing the recent news about WKS (that it is still alive and finally has a release date), I almost thought they already aborted it.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Seriously, I dunno what the fuck SCEJ had in mind, considering the significant lead they had in Japan. Before knowing the recent news about WKS (that it is still alive and finally has a release date), I almost thought they already aborted it.

It looks like SCE gave an ultimatum to Level5, this year or bust. With the release date in mind, and Hino words about team still working hard, being the first episode and such...all signs point to an unpolished, unfinished piece of a game to see if its worth working more on it.

 

[Paracelsus]

all signs point to an unpolished, unfinished piece of a game

They had three fucking years to work on it, and still it's unpolished?

What a bunch of jackasses.

 

[cw_sasuke]

They had three fucking years to work on it, and still it's unpolished?

What a bunch of jackasses.

I´d guess that they can make more money on dq9 and their self-published games...

 

[ksamedi]

Its nice to see Microsoft gaining some ground in Japan. The Japanese market needs diversity and also some western competition.

 

[Loudninja]

It looks like SCE gave an ultimatum to Level5, this year or bust. With the release date in mind, and Hino words about team still working hard, being the first episode and such...all signs point to an unpolished, unfinished piece of a game to see if its worth working more on it.

Umm what signs?I have no idea how you came to that conclusion

 

[Jonnyram]

They had three fucking years to work on it, and still it's unpolished

Welcome to next-gen.