sphinx said:
You (incorrectly) assume that 90 million PS2 owners will upgrade.
No, I'm not talking sideways about the Wii.
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Media Create Sales 5/28 - 6/3
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You (incorrectly) assume that 90 million PS2 owners will upgrade.
donny2112 said:
.- Those 90 million PS2 users never upgrading is one possibility.
.- Those users getting a Wii instead of a PS3/360 at some point is another one.
.- Buying ps3 down the line in late 2008 or 2009 after a price reductiion and worthy games are available is another one.
Any console can attract casuals if the manufacturer can figure out what combination of elements will lure them to buy their product. Wii figured it out fast and easy with the wiimote. PS3 and 360 sure made one big mistake which has to do with price. They are surely realizing that high entry prices and video game consoles don't combine very well. They can react in accordance to that and try something different. They can announce a " PS3 deluxe " in 2008 together with FFXIII in japan, that could help.
the main question here is: Will sony REACT? . They can but Sony gaming division seams like a mess now, noone taking responsability for anything.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Hasn't this discussion happened hundreds of times by now? Trends don't just turn around once they're cemented. The PS2 owners wanting to upgrade in two years ago won't make their decisions completely independently of what the PS2 owners now upgrading are doing.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
sphinx said:
Fixed.
Eteric Rice
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Yes, but we're bored. There hasn't been a good megaton in forever.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
By focusing on the 90 million PS2 gamers, you lose sight of what caused them to buy a PS2 in the first place. Games, price, other smaller factors. A big portion of current PS2 gamers jumped in after a price drop. PS3 sales suggest price is a huge factor. It can also be argued that price, in comparison to the competitors, play a part. Furthermore, HW manufacturers can do a lot to prevent people from buying their product, ie poor reliability. So, you can't predict where the industry will move but the Wii is in the best position in terms of price, ability to lower the price, and hw sales to attract devs. They have a price advantage in development. All things that helped the PS1 blow up.sphinx said:
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
P90 said:
I thought this was already announced... Perhaps it was something else. I dind't remember ...
In a sense, the Wii/PS3/360 battle has already happened.
Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money
One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).
(This as all been said before however).
Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money
One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).
(This as all been said before however).
Cygnus X-1
Member
Parl said:
What I find incredible is that Sony hasn't learned anything from these past console-cycles.
The_lascar
Member
Wii >>> PS1Parl said:
Saturn >>>>> 360
Parl said:
That comparison rubs me the wrong way. I don't think you'll ever have to set your Wii upside down to get it to play. :/ I think this whole generation is more comparable to the last one than two generations ago.
WII = PS2
360 = XBX
PS3 = GCN
Obviously it won't stay that way forever, because the GameCube was never $600, though.
Eteric Rice
Member
donny2112 said:
Well, it might. Really, it depends on how the companies go about it.
BrodiemanTTR
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
2009, believe.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Parl said:
Wasn't the Saturn more popular than the N64 in Japan, and a total flop in NA? Wasn't the N64 very successful in NA? I think last gen is a much better analogy to this gen.
test_account
XP-39C²
BrodiemanTTR said:
If u mean cancelation of PS3 it still wouldnt be close to VB
Still huge, but not compared to salenumbers. How many VB were sold? Atari Jaguar was also a pretty big disaster. According to info that i've found on the internet it sold like 500.000.JoshuaJSlone said:
I don't get this.. PS2 owners wanting to upgrade 2 years ago?? Do you mean " from now"?
I agree trends don't turn around once cemented but are Trends cemented already?
I think January - February 2008 is the crucial checkpoint in the console race. If Wii continues its supremacy by that time in spite of Halo 3, Sony's 1st party efforts, the consoles getting price drops and massive holidays advertising, then yeah Wii has an undisputed win for this gen.
Call me delusional but I don't think the gates are closed yet. Now, Sony and Microsoft being absolute morons and not doing anything about their situation is another story.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Virtual Boy sales at non-clearance price - 60,000. Additional sales at clearance - 60,000. Total sales - 120,000. It was a goddam disaster.test_account said:If u mean cancelation of PS3 it still wouldnt be close to VB
I think his 2009 is more referring to SEGA's new console, which will be arriving in 2009, will not be a disaster, and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
BrodiemanTTR said:
:lol :lol
test_account
XP-39C²
Segata Sanshiro said:
Damn.. thats really low numbers indeed.
New Sega console eh? Who knows hehe, i wouldnt mind tho
BrodiemanTTR
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
At last. :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Yeah, my bad. Like Merlin I live time backwards, so these sorts of things happen.sphinx said:
Are there any historical instances where they weren't by the time all systems had been out more than half a year?sphinx said:
Well, I thought we were just talking about Japan, where Halo 3 won't matter, PS3 is already the cheapest it is anywhere in the world, and PS3 sales tripling would still mean it's falling behind the Wii by tens of thousands each week.sphinx said:
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
P90 said:
why do people keep saying this?
of course MGS4 is coming to the x360. MG series comes out for every system. this is not new.
and yes to original guy, no megatons in awhile. people getting bored and restless. its a hostile environment these non-e3 summers. im glad i know all i do at work or id go nuts too
JoshuaJSlone said:
perhaps you can tell, I honestly don't know. How was it between the N64 and PS1? both JPN only and worldwide.
JoshuaJSlone said:
Japan is the worst case for Sony. Nintendo not noly provides the better value with their products but completely dominates in mindshare. Is NES or SNES all over again. Nintendo's presence in japan is so overwhelming that people hardly consider turning around to look for other options.
I still think things might change, I don't know by how or to what extend in sony's favor but I refuse to believe that japanese will not react to stellar software and a price drop. I might say I believe the same applies worldwide, that's why I don't think everything is cemented.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Only one that I know of, but for entirely different circumstances.
I believe the Genesis had a higher WW install base than the SNES for a while before the SNES eventually overtook it.
Phife Dawg
Member
Japan is pretty much a lost cause for MS. Sony is struggling and fail to put out any compelling software. I say if Sony doesn't totally blow away the competition at TGS (which I think is pretty unlikely given that most big games are western centric) Japan is sealed.sphinx said:
The Americas are more open though I don't think Sony has a big chance there either. By phasing out the 20gig they pretty much forced themselves into a corner. I don't think even a 100,- $ price drop would kick start sales. It all depends on how Sony will market their new software titles. But other than SOCOM to an extent they don't have much drawing power being new franchises. 360 has both GTAIV and Halo3 and thus an advantage.
So I think it'll be more of a race between Wii and 360.
Sony still has good chances in Europe since 360 isn't anything to write home about around here. But since Wii is also competing for that first/second place I don't think we'll see the domination Sony once had over Europe. Remember Europe in general is a very price sensitive market.
Does that mean it's all set and done? I don't think so as well but I can guarantee one thing, Sony won't come out on top like they did last gen, there will be no magical turning around to the dominant Sony we knew. At best they can keep this race close and come out on top in Europe and give the 360 a run for it's money in the Americas.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
You're right. It happens every week though. A troll pops in on the weekend, says black is white and up is down, and everyone rushes to correct them. 50 posts in it's dead obvious that the troll is in fact a troll, but the thread is already ruined. Somehow the troll doesn't get banned most of the time either, which I don't get.Deku said:
This week was different though. The troll was pro Nintendo.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
mabuza said:
Read through the past few. See for yourself.
Media Create Sales 4/9 - 4/15
Media Create Sales 4/16 - 4/22
Media Create Sales 4/23 - 4/29
Media Create Sales 4/30 - 5/6
Media Create Sales 5/14 - 5/20
Media Create Sales 5/21 - 5/27
Grampa Simpson
Banned
You asked. Also, are you typing with a lisp?mabuza said:
Slightly off topic but I noticed that last week Cheesemeister changed his second graph from referring to the life to date of the console to just as "consoles." Obviously not a major change (I missed it last week when the first post was made and would've assumed it started this week if not for bmf's post just now) but was there any explanation for the small change? I know it doesn't alter anything major, actually it probably clarifies things for people who don't understand the acronym, but was that all there was to it?
Cheesemeister
Member
Gaborn said:
Since the LTD pie chart wasn't changing much week-to-week, I'm now displaying the weekly marketshare for the 3 consoles instead.
They have learned the wrong lesson. Well, if everyone came to the right conclusion by looking in the past, we wouldn't see so many repeating mistakes in the politics.Cygnus X-1 said:
The way Sony has taken wasn't irrational: The success of their past consoles came always along with a new storage medium (CD, DVD). From their point of view, it is logical the introduce a new medium again (Blu-Ray). Their past consoles also made a jump in terms of graphic, so there were never a possibility to create something like the Wii with such a small jump of performance.
Without a doubt their mistake is not looking after the price.
Walter Matthau
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
I've been waiting for the sequel to that SEGA game I really loved.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Archived MC threads say otherwise. Sony fans used to come in and use Sony domination as an unscalable ivory tower from which they could fire arrows at Gahiggidy and other insane N-fans... much like what happens now, but in reverse.Axord said:
Eteric Rice
Member
vicious_killer_squirrel said:
It's a nice change of pace.