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[Road]

Garaph doesn't list the DS port so I guess it came out of the top30.

Someone agrees with you: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12400809&postcount=263

 

[Hero of Legend]

Speaking is NIS, I wonder how Phantom Brave Wii did up 'til now. Amazon.com says it's discontinued. :/

I can't imagine it needing that many copies sold to profit, I mean it's like 4 years old(?) and it's a bit expensive at $39.99 in NA and way more in Japan and they didn't do a thing graphics-wise, plus it was outsourced to System Prisma.

 

[Road]

Speaking is NIS, I wonder how Phantom Brave Wii did up 'til now. Amazon.com says it's discontinued. :/

I can't imagine it needing that many copies sold to profit, I mean it's like 4 years old(?) and it's a bit expensive at $39.99 in NA and way more in Japan and they didn't do a thing graphics-wise, plus it was outsourced to System Prisma.

It did 2,300 first week, if that helps.

 

[duckroll]

So next week we have the showdown: Bayonetta vs Tekken 6 vs FF Gaiden 4 WoL vs Persona 3 Portable. Lurking YSO guys predictions, it could be anything, since Bayonetta PS3, Tekken 6 PS3, FF Gaiden and P3P are all on the 100-150k range.

Just how funny would it be if P3P came out on top despite launching on Saturday? 11 out of the 24 YSO guys have P3P over the other releases.

P3P will only get tracked for a single day though, since it comes out on Nov 1st. It'll be really funny if it still sells more than FFG. Bayonetta could do well, but I still don't think it will have as strong a following as DMC4. While the demo is very well received and Sega is marketing the hell out of it, it still doesn't quite have a fanbase who was actually anticipating it as a sequel.

 

[duckroll]

Okay, putting in my predictions for First Week numbers for this week's releases:

Bayonetta:
PS3 - 140-160k
360 - 50-60k, leaning closer to 60k

Tekken 6:
PS3 - 150k
360 - 40k

Final Fantasy Gaiden - 110-120k

Persona 3 Portable - 90k (first day)

 

[Y2Kev]

Okay, putting in my predictions for First Week numbers for this week's releases:

Bayonetta:
PS3 - 140-160k
360 - 50-60k, leaning closer to 60k

Tekken 6:
PS3 - 150k
360 - 40k

Final Fantasy Gaiden - 110-120k

Persona 3 Portable - 90k (first day)

Predictions:

Bayonetter:
PS3 -- 130-150k
360 -- 55k

Tekken 6:
PS3 -- 120k
360 -- 38k

FFG: 120k
Persona 3 Portable: 80k

 

[donny2112]

Garaph doesn't list the DS port so I guess it came out of the top30.

4.4K first week.
Edit: Road got it.

There was also a re-release of the first game with a "+1" on the end. It sold 6.8K in 1999.

 

[Mirimar]

What are the chances of Sega undershipping Bayonetta?

 

[cvxfreak]

What are the chances of Sega undershipping Bayonetta?

I'd say there's a good chance they could undership, but I don't expect it to be a lingering problem.

 

[Brofist]

I just can't see Bayonetta outselling T6.

 

[duckroll]

I just can't see Bayonetta outselling T6.

Why not? Fighting games are no where near as popular as they used to be, especially in Japan. Even SF4 didn't do great. Bayonetta is an action game with stages and bosses, that alone already makes it more appealing to most gamers than a fighting game.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

P3P will only get tracked for a single day though, since it comes out on Nov 1st. It'll be really funny if it still sells more than FFG. Bayonetta could do well, but I still don't think it will have as strong a following as DMC4. While the demo is very well received and Sega is marketing the hell out of it, it still doesn't quite have a fanbase who was actually anticipating it as a sequel.

Just noticed Nov 1st isn't Saturday but Sunday. One single day...Persona looks way too strong looking at yso. I'll go with technical draws...

PS3 Bayonetta - 125k
PSP Persona 3 Portable - 125k
PS3 Tekken 6 - 105k
DS FF Gaiden 4 WoL - 105k
360 Bayonetta - 50k
360 Tekken 6 - 30k

 

[Chris1964]

First week predictions:

[NDS] 4 Warriors of Light: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 140.000
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 120.000
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)- 110.000
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 100.000
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 50.000
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 40.000

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I made a Famitsu 40/40 group, though it is currently missing Vagrant Story and Soulcalibur.

Why not? Fighting games are no where near as popular as they used to be, especially in Japan. Even SF4 didn't do great. Bayonetta is an action game with stages and bosses, that alone already makes it more appealing to most gamers than a fighting game.

I haven't paid too much attention to Bayonetta--what's big that's similar?

 

[V_Arnold]

[360] Bayonetta - 70,000
[PS3] Bayonetta - 95,000
[360] Tekken 6 - 50,000
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 110,000

 

[Regulus Tera]

The lack of Sin and Punishment 2 predictions disappoint me.

Spoiler

I'm predicting 30k first week, 50k lifetime. And that's being optimistic.

 

[Rolf NB]

I haven't paid too much attention to Bayonetta--what's big that's similar?

Devil May Cry.

 

[Grampasso]

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 50.2 / 49.8 bring total shares to 29.9 / 70.1. At this week's rates, PS3 would catch up to Wii in 18,523.3 weeks (October 20, 2364--ST:TNG Season 1). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 163.0 weeks (December 2, 2012).

:lol

 

[duckroll]

I haven't paid too much attention to Bayonetta--what's big that's similar?

DMC4. Since it's a new IP, and DMC is an established franchise, I don't expect it to do as well as DMC4 did in the first week. But it shouldn't do less than 50% of what DMC4 did because it appeals to the same fanbase, and honestly there's nothing else of similar quality out which has impressed Japan of late, so it should do well in that respect.

 

[duckroll]

First day numbers for post-P3 releases:
Persona 3 Fes - 65k
Persona 4 - 148k
Persona PSP - 65k

I personally feel that anything more than 100k for the first day of P3P is a little unbelievable. I definitely feel that the fanbase has expanded significantly since Persona 3, but at the same time it's obvious that the fanbase wants a NEW game instead of just another port. That's why I expect it to do more than Fes and Persona PSP, but nowhere near as much as Persona 4.

 

[cvxfreak]

Persona 3 PSP seems a little soon for me. I can see why Persona 1 would do well, because it's obviously been a long time since that game hit, but Persona 3 feels a little too recent to make such a huge splash.

Then again, it can easily be a huge hit.

 

[PuppetMaster]

I actually think you guys are guessing way too high

[360] Bayonetta - 15 - 30k
[PS3] Bayonetta - 40 - 60k
[360] Tekken 6 - 15 - 30k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 50 - 70k

 

[Chris1964]

You are guessing way too low.

 

[duckroll]

I actually think you guys are guessing way too high

[360] Bayonetta - 15 - 30k
[PS3] Bayonetta - 40 - 60k
[360] Tekken 6 - 15 - 30k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 50 - 70k

Those numbers don't even make logical sense imo.

 

[PuppetMaster]

Those numbers don't even make logical sense imo.

Well I was basing it on SoulCalibur4 75k PS3 first week last year. And the pretty weak 42k NG2S sales this year. And even though the PS3 market share has grown a bit since last year, I don't think the fighting fan base really has.

Also especially with both of these coming out in the same week, I think they will partially cannibalize each other.

Maybe I am being too pessimistic, but I am expecting the worst. I think the market is just too soft right now. Me personally I'll go out and buy Tekken6 day one. But I probably will hold off on Bayonetta till a price drop.

 

[Chris1964]

Capcom Brings MT Framework to Wii

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/10/26/mt_framework_wii/

Resident Evil 5: Wii Edition coming closer and closer.

 

[cvxfreak]

RE5 Wii would have been fine with the RE4/REDSC engine too, actually. :lol

 

[Chris1964]

99% Dragon Quest IX missed the 4M this week, Famitsu tracking. Last week it was:

14. [DS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 15.000 / 3.984.000

No special report from Famitsu so next week the celebrations.
According to Dengeki it was a 4M seller last week and according to m-create it will be this week. Maybe m-create will report the exact number even though it will be outside the top 10.

 

[Road]

I'm terrible at the prediction game, but let's go...

[PS3] Bayonetta - 120k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 120k
[PSP] Persona 3 P - 100k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden - 100k
[360] Bayonetta - 50k
[360] Tekken 6 360 - 50k

=P

I'm also curious about the PSP Go. Last time PSP sold more than DS was in March.

 

[schuelma]

PS3 Bayonetta - 135k
PSP Persona 3 Portable - 115k
PS3 Tekken 6 - 115k
DS FF Gaiden 4 WoL - 90k
360 Bayonetta - 40k
360 Tekken 6 - 25k


And even though no one else cares, I'll throw in a SRW Neo prediction- 35K.

 

[Chris1964]

Anyone wants to guess how bad PSP GO will bomb? The biggest joke will be if it will be outsold from PSP-3000 at his launch week (day).

 

[Stumpokapow]

I see Bayonetta as basically selling in-line with DMC4, minus maybe 15-25%, probably on the low end of that. Count that as my first week and lifetime prediction. I'm aware that puts me much more bullish than most.

 

[jj984jj]

[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 150.000
[NDS] Hikari no 4 Senshi: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 140.000
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)- 115.000
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 110.000
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 50.000
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 45.000

If P3P had the usual 4 days I would've put it above FFG.

And I'd like to predict S&P:
[WII] Sin & Punishment 2 - 25.000

 

[thestopsign]

And I'd like to predict S&P:
[WII] Sin & Punishment 2 - 25.000

I think even that is a bit high.

 

[Orgen]

[NDS] 4 Warriors of Light: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 158.000
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)- 127.000
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 98.000
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 87.000
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 46.000
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 39.000

First week predictions:

[NDS] 4 Warriors of Light: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 140.000
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 120.000
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)- 110.000
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 100.000
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 50.000
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 40.000

Good to see I'm not the only one who thinks that FF Gaiden will beat everyone this week

 

[Grampasso]

[NDS] 4 Warriors of Light: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 170,000
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)- 132,000
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 95,000
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus Co.) - 78,000
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 50,000
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 43,000

 

[jj984jj]

Why are most of you downplaying Tekken? It's not like Soul Calibur has ever been as popular on PS consoles.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

And I'd like to predict S&P:
[WII] Sin & Punishment 2 - 25.000

FWIW the original opened with 22.5K in six days of availability.

That links makes me ask: Is the Thursday release a more recent standard or was that just a really weird week? That list covers the week of November 20 - 26, 2000, and I see games listed as released on the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th.

 

[duckroll]

Why are most of you downplaying Tekken? It's not like Soul Calibur has ever been as popular on PS consoles.

Street Fighter 4.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Street Fighter 4.

...was the most successful Street Fighter release since 2000.

 

[test_account]

I really can't help you with that. Frillen made a comment that Uncharted 2 had an unusually small growth from first day to first week.

Ye, i know that Frillen first said it, i quoted him as well in the previous Media Create thread But the way you wrote it ("the game still had a great first week compared to the original, but it just wasn't quite as great as the first day numbers hinted at.") also seemed to me that you had more focus on that Uncharted 2 wasnt as frontloaded compared to other western game instead of having more focus on how great the first week sales were.

Maybe i read more into this comment than what you and Frillen actually ment though. Maybe you just said it as information. That is why i said "it seemed to me" and not "you ment it like this", because i wasnt sure if you had more focus on that Uncharted 2 was more frontloaded instead of having more focus on how good it sold. So please correct me if i missunderstood what you ment

I thought it was a valid point to make (I still do) and the data actually supports it, but you seemingly have a problem with that.

I didnt say that it wasnt a valid point to make, i said that i agreed with you. I also said that i dont have any problems with people mentioning it. I wrote this in my previous post to you:

I dont have any problems with people saying that Uncharted 2 is being less fronloaded compared to other western games, this is afterall the case when we talk about percentage increase. So i am agreeing to what you are saying. It was just the way that it is written that i noticed the most.

So i dont have any problems if people want to mention that Uncharted 2 was more frontloaded compared to other western games just to underline that. This is afterall the truth, so i have absolutely no problem if people mention this. The reason why i commented on it was because i noticed the way it was written. That is why i asked

But to sum up my questions regarding this: What did you (and Frillen) have more focus on, Uncharted 2 being more frontloaded or how good the first week sales were? As long as the LTD number is good, how does it matter if a game is frontloaded? This is all that i am wondering about

Uncharted 1 kinda did. Yes, sequels are generally more frontloaded, but there are plenty of examples where they have legs like their predecessors so it's not like it's a foregone conclusion.

Yep, some western games does indeed have some smaller legs in Japan as you said I wrote that most western games doesnt really have any legs in Japan, not that no western games have legs But from my experince, western games in Japan usually chart for some weeks before they drop out of the chart(s). A re-release might get a game up on the chart again, just like what happend with Uncharted 1 recently as you say. But when it comes to the first release of a game (not a re-release), i would think that there is more of an expection if a western game charts for many weeks in a row (like 4-5 weeks or so minimum in a row).

"Legs" might be described in different "forms" (or what i shall say) though. Even if a game drops out of the Top 30 and/or Top 50 charts it is still a chance that the game will contunie to sell small numbers for several of weeks. For example if a game sells 1000 copies each week for 10 weeks in a row, this is also legs eventhough that the game doesnt chart within the Top 30 or Top 50.

But we must wait until the half yearly and/or yearly Top 500 charts before we see how much a game has sold outside the charts (if the game(s) make it within the Top 500 list of course). When i was thinking about legs earlier, i was then thinking about how long they charted within the Top 30 and/or Top 50. I should have written that more specificly, sorry.

When you say that there are plenty of examples where western games have had legs in Japan, which games are these and what kind of legs did they have? Honest question.

More? Just as an example, say it would've experienced the same growth as the original from first day to first week, that is ~89% for a first week number of ~89k. Now we would've been looking at a significantly higher probable LTD.

I knew that you ment more, but how much more? An 89% increase from 47k first day sales to first week sales for a western game in Japan would have been an amazing performace, at least in my opinion. Have any western games selling around 47k the first day had a 89% increase to the first week sales?

I am sorry for the long reply again, i will try to write a shorter reply the next time.

EDIT: I fixed some typos.

 

[duckroll]

...was the most successful Street Fighter release since 2000.

......which amounts to about how much Soul Calibur IV sold.

It was a response to why we're "downplaying" Tekken.

 

[jj984jj]

......which amounts to about how much Soul Calibur IV sold.

It was a response to why we're "downplaying" Tekken.

Tekken is still the more popular series, I don't see why the next Tekken game would struggle to reach 100k in 4 days on PS3.

 

[duckroll]

Tekken is still the more popular series, I don't see why a Tekken game would struggle to reach 100k in 4 days.

I never said it would. It's just not going to do 200k in the first week like Tekken 5 did on the PS2.

 

[jj984jj]

I never said it would. It's just not going to do 200k in the first week like Tekken 5 did on the PS2.

Oh I don't expect it to either, but most of these predictions are sub-100k or close to it. :lol

 

[duckroll]

Oh I don't expect it to either, but most of these predictions are sub-100k or close to it. :lol

I dunno, there are 11 predictions so far, and only 3 are sub-100k.

 

[onken]

Yup. Whenever I go to a game centre, SF4 is basically empty and people are crowding round the Tekken 6 machines. I think we're going to see substantial improvement over the SF4 numbers. My first week predictions:

[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 120k
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 25k
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 130k
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 60k

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If Tekken 6 had the same drop from Tekken 5 as SCIV PS3 had from SCIII PS3, it would have a first week of 161K. Even the two highest guesses don't quite get there yet.

 

[Road]

					 FW	LTD
Virtua Fighter

2002 [PS2] Virtua Fighter 4 		357k	542k
2007 [PS360] Virtua Fighter 5		 65K    121K
2007 [PS3] Virtua Fighter 5		 52k	 97k
2007 [360] Virtua Fighter 5 Live Arena	 13k     24k

2003 [PS2] Virtua Fighter 4 Evolution	 65k	118k


Soul Calibur

2005 [PS2] Soul Calibur III		100k	135k
2008 [PS360] Soul Calibur IV		109k	173K
2008 [PS3] Soul Calibur IV		 74k	120k
2008 [360] Soul Calibur IV		 35k	 53k


Tekken

2005 [PS2] Tekken 5			217k	317k
2009 [PS360] Tekken 6			   ?	   ?

*2006 [PSP] Tekken Dark Ressurection	 55k	115k

(no budge re-releases included)

 

[duckroll]

If Tekken 6 had the same drop from Tekken 5 as SCIV PS3 had from SCIII PS3, it would have a first week of 161K. Even the two highest guesses don't quite get there yet.

How about the drop from VF4 to VF5?

Edit: Damn beaten!