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Media Create Sales: Sep 14 - 20, 2009

donny2112

Member
Grampasso said:
Oh, didn't check any data so I didn't notice about that. So in the end I guess launching in december could hurt sales instead of helping them :|

It might be better to say that it gives the impression of longer legs than the game will actually get. Liabe Brave and I had a discussion about this with Final Fantasy IV and White Knight Chronicles last January. If you look at their curves/data on Garaph, they start off well and then fall off greatly after New Year's. I interpret it as New Year's pushing up later purchasers of the game sooner, so it becomes more relatively front-loaded.

Chris1964 said:
So if they say that FF XIII first shipment will be 800k-960k and it isn't revised don't expect that number to differ from reality.

Uh-oh. Maybe it'll be revised up with the Slim's performance.
 

Grampasso

Member
donny2112 said:
It might be better to say that it gives the impression of longer legs than the game will actually get. Liabe Brave and I had a discussion about this with Final Fantasy IV and White Knight Chronicles last January. If you look at their curves/data on Garaph, they start off well and then fall off greatly after New Year's. I interpret it as New Year's pushing up later purchasers of the game sooner, so it becomes more relatively front-loaded.
Yes I think I get it, if the period will boost the sales of the game it will be because people will buy it sooner than they would at another time, but the total will stay the same with a higher 1st week/LTD ratio
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Chris1964 said:
m-create:
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------
| System  | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 |
|------------------------------------------------------|
|Black WII|  95.357|  47.140|  47.732|  26.972|  25.038|
| Slim PS3| 151.783|  55.344|  51.055|        |        |
--------------------------------------------------------
Will the pattern continue?

I said it last week but I don't know if anyone else is with me on this. This week we will see a big drop in PS3 sales since Tales (as usually) is very frontloaded and there isn't any important title that will help the hardware remain high until Winning Eleven 2010 (November 5). Almost a month...

Will PS3 be dead again this week?
1st week of slim: it's alive!!!
2nd week of slim: it died already
3rd week of slim: it's alive again!!!
4th week of slim: it died again?
 

Dalthien

Member
Chris1964 said:
I said it last week but I don't know if anyone else is with me on this. This week we will see a big drop in PS3 sales since Tales (as usually) is very frontloaded and there isn't any important title that will help the hardware remain high until Winning Eleven 2010 (November 5). Almost a month...

Will PS3 be dead again this week?
1st week of slim: it's alive!!!
2nd week of slim: it died already
3rd week of slim: it's alive again!!!
4th week of slim: it died again?
Yeah, I'm with you.

I was actually speculating about the exact same comparison before the PS3 Slim arrived. I pointed out the Wii sold ~ 100k -> 50k -> 50k -> 30k with the Black Wii and MH3, and that I thought the PS3 Slim would actually be kind of disappointing if it only ended up following a similar pattern as the Wii. My reasoning was that a $100 price cut combined in tandem with a new hardware model should provide a significantly greater and longer-lasting boost than a new colour and a game that will sell a million copies.

When the first week came it at 150k, it was definitely higher than the Wii first week bump, so I thought the PS3 might avoid the disappointing outcome that I had suggested. But then the 2nd week came in with a massive drop-off, and it seemed likely that the PS3 was going to trend very similarly with the Wii after all. So I expected something around 50k in week 3, and I fully expect something around 30k in week 4, which would again follow very closely with the black Wii bump. If I remember correctly, week 3 was even a holiday week for both systems, helping to provide that steady hold from week 2 to week 3 in both cases.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
onken said:
Well one includes tax and other doesn't, which do you think people have to pay?
People probably pay with tax, but i thought that 8,800 Yen was a normal retail price (what people pay for the game), so i wanted to ask if people had to pay 9,240 Yen or 8,800 Yen for Final Fantasy 13 just to be sure :) Why do they announce the price with and without taxes by the way?


gerg said:
To coincide with the launch of Wii Fit Plus, iirc.
Ah ok, that makes sense. Sounds like a good sales strategy as well i think, to release both Wii Fit Plus and a Wii pricedrop on the same day :)


bttb said:
*price comparisons*
Ah, thanks for the price comparsions! :) Any reason why FF6 was so expencive compared to the other Final Fantasy games?
 

gkryhewy

Member
test_account said:
Any reason why FF6 was so expencive compared to the other Final Fantasy games?

Quality tax! They knew even then that they'd never be able to match it. ::runs::

Actually it was probably the very large cart size. I believe FF3 launched at 70-80 USD in the US.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
gkrykewy said:
Quality tax! They knew even then that they'd never be able to match it. ::runs::

Actually it was probably the very large cart size. I believe FF3 launched at 70-80 USD in the US.
Hehe, quality tax indeed :)

But ye, the FF6 price might have been due to a very large cart size as you say. I was thinking about if any special chips were used for FF6, but i didnt think that bigger sized chips might be more expencive compared to smaller sized chips.

Also, if i am not mistaken, some other Super Famicom games were also expencive. I found a Super Famicom game (Air Managment 2 (a game made and/or published by KOEI) at my parents' house that i bought some years ago and back on the box it says like 12,000 Yen. I am not 100% sure if this is the price of the game though, because it is a part of the box itself if you know what i mean (it is not a price sticker or written with a marker on the box or anything like that), but i think that it can be the price of the game when it was new (i cant think of anything else that 12,000 Yen could be referring to at least) :)

EDIT: I added some text.
 

mclem

Member
Raw64life said:
Didn't realize DQIX was already the best selling DQ game ever. And looks like it will also become the first non-Nintendo game to sell 4 million in Japan.

Would it be possible to add a new pair of columns to the DQIX chart, dictating its sales relative to FF7? Given that that's holding the current "Best-selling non-nintendo game" position, it'd be interesting to see the rate at which DQIX is approaching it. Would allow the chart to keep its usefulness for a couple more weeks, at least :)
 

Kenka

Member
mclem said:
Would it be possible to add a new pair of columns to the DQIX chart, dictating its sales relative to FF7? Given that that's holding the current "Best-selling non-nintendo game" position, it'd be interesting to see the rate at which DQIX is approaching it. Would allow the chart to keep its usefulness for a couple more weeks, at least :)

Is it true ? I remember it ranking behind FF VIII in Japanese sales. And I think that FF VIII pretty much got whiped by DQ IX.
 

donny2112

Member
mclem said:
Would it be possible to add a new pair of columns to the DQIX chart, dictating its sales relative to FF7?

It blew past its LTD by week 4.

mclem said:
Given that that's holding the current "Best-selling non-nintendo game" position, it'd be interesting to see the rate at which DQIX is approaching it.

That's if you combine all the subsequently tracked re-releases.
 

Tmac

Member
Chris1964 said:
I said it last week but I don't know if anyone else is with me on this. This week we will see a big drop in PS3 sales since Tales (as usually) is very frontloaded and there isn't any important title that will help the hardware remain high until Winning Eleven 2010 (November 5). Almost a month...

Will PS3 be dead again this week?
1st week of slim: it's alive!!!
2nd week of slim: it died already
3rd week of slim: it's alive again!!!
4th week of slim: it died again?

I'm not sure thats the case. Black wii sales surge happened for different reason, so the pattern may be different too. Ps3 sold more because of constrained demand, black wii sold more because of the novelty, different color, etc.
 
kpop100 said:
Silly jokes aside could anyone claim even handhelds included that SE has had the same quality of titles this gen as in the past 2 generations?

You're assuming the past two gens were of good quality. FFT was not really their baby, FF7-12 all have serious flaws that shit them up, KH1 was decent, but Nomura couldn't help himself there and ruined that with KH2. (Nomura is like a mix of Michael Bay, Hideo Kojima, Gackt, and the creators of belts and zippers.) What else? Chrono Cross is considered a disappointment, people love or hate Xenogears (CC, too), and Eihander came and went along with Vagrant Story and Parasite Eve, while Tobal 2 made US fanboys whine. Square in general just went to shit and the very few bright spots since then are not good enough. (There are other lesser known games like threads of fate, but since no cared/s, I won't bring them all up.)

Since SaGa past sales have been brought up, I'd like to point my finger of hate at the Frontier and Unlimited games being the reason SaGa has fallen into niche status, and poke them until my finger breaks off. Fans got tired of shitty sequels so they left. RS remake stopped the sales gradual decent to hell, though.

The Mana series turned to shit with Legend, and is pretty much a dead (on the inside) series.

EDIT: I'm referring to Square's side, not Enix.

Sys. Title Release Price (+Tax)
FC FF1 1987.12.18 5,900 6,195
FC FF2 1988.12.17 6,500 6,825
FC FF3 1990.04.27 8,400 8,820
SFC FF4 1991.07.19 8,800 9,240
SFC FF5 1992.12.06 9,800 10,290
SFC FF6 1994.04.02 11,400 11,970
PS FF7 1997.01.31 6,800 7,140
PS FF8 1999.02.11 7,800 8,190
PS FF9 2000.07.07 7,800 8,190
PS2 FF10 2001.07.19 8,800 9,240
PS2 FF10-2 2003.03.13 7,800 8,190
PS2 FF12 2006.03.16 8,562 8,990
PS3 FF13 2009.12.17 8,800 9,240

I believe CT was about as expensive as FF6. Probably higher since one had 24 mb and the 32 mb. Interesting that FF7's price was so low. That certainly helped boost sales for that, but the real fun part is how the prices for each of the following titles kept jumping higher and higher until the price is the same as the cartridge games. Everyone was bragging about how CDs were SOOOOOOO much cheaper to produce than cartridges, and as a result they could lower game prices! Win-win for all! Oh how times times have changed...
 
test_account said:
But ye, the FF6 price might have been due to a very large cart size as you say. I was thinking about if any special chips were used for FF6, but i didnt think that bigger sized chips might be more expencive compared to smaller sized chips.

Also, if i am not mistaken, some other Super Famicom games were also expensive.
The reason I bought very few SNES games back in the 90s is because they were so damn pricey. Yes, FF "III" (VI) was $80 on release in the U.S. That's $115 in 2008 dollars! Other games were this expensive, too; I recall Demon's Crest, Chrono Trigger, and Secret of Mana being that price, too. I believe Super Metroid, Megaman X, and Link to the Past were $70.

The prices of carts varied a lot (from $40 to $80), even on first release, and I don't recall it being directly related to profile, or to quality. I'm pretty sure the physical chips inside the carts drove the prices hard, even if other things might've played into them too.
 

Jonnyram

Member
cvxfreak said:
So Pokemon HGSS sold only 166,244 last week?

Say hello to massive legs.
It's still sold out everywhere AFAIK.
If you know anywhere that has it in stock right now, please let me know... I need to buy a couple of games today/tomorrow to get me up to Platinum status before the deadline :lol
 

cvxfreak

Member
Jonnyram said:
It's still sold out everywhere AFAIK.
If you know anywhere that has it in stock right now, please let me know... I need to buy a couple of games today/tomorrow to get me up to Platinum status before the deadline :lol

Stay away from Shinjuku then. :lol
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Famitsu data:
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    | [GBC] Pokemon G/S |[GBA] Pokemon FR/LG|[NDS] Pokemon HG/SS|       difference      |
|    | (Sunday 21/11/99) |(Thursday 29/01/04)|(Saturday 12/09/09)|                       |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | HG/SS-G/S |HG/SS-FR/LG|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|  1 |1.425.768|1.425.768|  955.337|  955.337|1.408.980|1.408.980|    -16.788|    453.643|
|  2 |  438.280|1.864.049|  286.626|1.241.963|  492.000|1.901.000|     36.951|    659.037|
|  3 |  453.500|2.317.549|  161.550|1.403.513|  167.000|2.067.609|   -249.940|    664.096|
|  4 |  301.003|2.618.551|   92.626|1.496.139|         |         |           |           |
|  5 |  436.828|3.055.379|   82.546|1.578.685|         |         |           |           |
|  6 |  573.247|3.628.627|   61.591|1.640.276|         |         |           |           |
|  7 |  477.507|4.106.134|   54.069|1.694.345|         |         |           |           |
|  8 |  258.734|4.364.868|   49.576|1.743.921|         |         |           |           |
|  9 |  145.778|4.510.646|   56.359|1.800.280|         |         |           |           |
| 10 |  144.733|4.655.379|   51.076|1.851.356|         |         |           |           |
| 11 |  120.138|4.775.517|   30.037|1.881.393|         |         |           |           |
| 12 |   98.055|4.873.571|   26.907|1.908.300|         |         |           |           |
| 13 |   76.713|4.950.284|   29.698|1.937.998|         |         |           |           |
| 14 |   50.421|5.000.705|   43.406|1.981.404|         |         |           |           |
| 15 |   48.587|5.049.292|   51.127|2.032.531|         |         |           |           |
| 16 |   47.512|5.096.804|   15.027|2.047.558|         |         |           |           |
| 17 |   43.827|5.140.631|   14.350|2.061.908|         |         |           |           |
| 18 |   34.957|5.175.589|   16.099|2.078.007|         |         |           |           |
| 19 |   33.367|5.208.956|   16.029|2.094.036|         |         |           |           |
| 20 |   29.743|5.238.698|   13.400|2.107.436|         |         |           |           |
| 21 |   21.582|5.260.280|   14.723|2.122.159|         |         |           |           |
| 22 |   15.788|5.276.068|   14.578|2.136.737|         |         |           |           |
| 23 |   14.204|5.290.272|   14.843|2.151.580|         |         |           |           |
| 24 |        -|        -|   13.614|2.165.194|         |         |           |           |
| 25 |        -|5.332.897|   17.140|2.182.334|         |         |           |           |
| 26 |    9.987|5.342.884|   15.380|2.197.714|         |         |           |           |
| 27 |    7.308|5.350.193|   10.931|2.208.645|         |         |           |           |
| 28 |    7.879|5.358.072|   12.497|2.221.142|         |         |           |           |
| 29 |    7.597|5.365.669|   17.086|2.238.228|         |         |           |           |
| 30 |    7.040|5.372.709|   12.141|2.250.369|         |         |           |           |
| 31 |    7.722|5.380.430|   10.014|2.260.383|         |         |           |           |
| 32 |    7.657|5.388.087|    8.862|2.269.245|         |         |           |           |
| 33 |    7.575|5.395.662|    7.316|2.276.561|         |         |           |           |
| 34 |    6.449|5.402.111|    6.917|2.283.478|         |         |           |           |
| 35 |    7.120|5.409.231|    7.400|2.290.878|         |         |           |           |
| 36 |    8.127|5.417.358|    5.792|2.296.670|         |         |           |           |
| 37 |    8.796|5.426.154|    4.717|2.301.387|         |         |           |           |
| 38 |        -|        -|    5.240|2.306.627|         |         |           |           |
| 39 |        -|        -|    3.780|2.310.407|         |         |           |           |
| 40 |   10.588|5.451.223|    4.849|2.315.256|         |         |           |           |
| 41 |    5.995|5.457.218|    4.095|2.319.351|         |         |           |           |
| 42 |    7.940|5.465.158|    3.799|2.323.150|         |         |           |           |
| 43 |    3.646|5.468.804|    2.971|2.326.121|         |         |           |           |
| 44 |    4.704|5.473.508|    3.820|2.329.941|         |         |           |           |
| 45 |    5.002|5.478.510|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 46 |        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 47 |        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 48 |        -|        -|   25.511|2.377.713|         |         |           |           |
| 49 |        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
| 50 |    4.012|5.495.447|        -|        -|         |         |           |           |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   | HG/SS-G/S |HG/SS-FR/LG|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|			
|  1 |3.628.627|3.628.627|2.377.713|2.377.713|2.067.609|2.067.609| -1.561.018|   -310.104|
|  2 |2.383.096|6.011.723|  202.800|2.580.513|         |         |           |           |
|  3 |   76.421|6.088.144|  141.728|2.722.241|         |         |           |           |
|  4 |        -|        -|  161.429|2.883.670|         |         |           |           |
|  5 |        -|        -|  102.232|2.985.902|         |         |           |           |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
| LTD|        -|6.088.144|        -|2.985.902|        -|2.067.609| -4.020.535|   -918.293|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major undershipping this week. I wonder if this will be the amount of shipments until the holiday season (they have to stockpile for that period).
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Chris1964 said:
I said it last week but I don't know if anyone else is with me on this. This week we will see a big drop in PS3 sales since Tales (as usually) is very frontloaded and there isn't any important title that will help the hardware remain high until Winning Eleven 2010 (November 5). Almost a month...

Will PS3 be dead again this week?
1st week of slim: it's alive!!!
2nd week of slim: it died already
3rd week of slim: it's alive again!!!
4th week of slim: it died again?
How much is "a big drop"? I agree that the PS3 will most likely drop this week, but i dont really have much thoughs about how big or small the drop will be. If i remember correctly, last week (or the week before that) i saw someone who predicted the PS3 hardware to sell something like 30k eventhough that it was known that Tales of Vesperia would come out (i dont know if they concidered or remembered the release of Tales of Vesperia though). So who knows how this weeks PS3 hardware sales will look like next week :) By ye, Tales games are usually very frontloaded in sales as you say, so this might affect the PS3 hardware sales indeed.

Maybe i am taking this too literally, but is 55k really concidered as "dead"? (despite the big drop from the previous week, 55k a week is still 55k a week :)). Or maybe you mean it died because of the big drop in sales compared to the previous week? I think that it shall be interesting to see how the PS3 will contunie to sell though. I am pretty curious about how the new PS3 sales baseline will look like.


By the way, speaking about PS3 hardware sales, i asked earlier in this thread something about if the Silver Week vacation could affect this week's hardware sales, but after checking the same time period in 2008, i see that there werent any hardware bumps, so maybe the Silver Week vacation wont affect the hardware sales that much this year either. So we might see the lowest one week Wii hardware sales afterall indeed like schuelma mentioned earlier in this thread.



Liabe Brave said:
The reason I bought very few SNES games back in the 90s is because they were so damn pricey. Yes, FF "III" (VI) was $80 on release in the U.S. That's $115 in 2008 dollars! Other games were this expensive, too; I recall Demon's Crest, Chrono Trigger, and Secret of Mana being that price, too. I believe Super Metroid, Megaman X, and Link to the Past were $70.

The prices of carts varied a lot (from $40 to $80), even on first release, and I don't recall it being directly related to profile, or to quality. I'm pretty sure the physical chips inside the carts drove the prices hard, even if other things might've played into them too.
Ye, those were some expencive prices indeed, at least compared to what other games costed in the US. Unfortunately i dont remember what SNES games costed where i live (in Scandinavia) since i didnt have a SNES when i was young (i wanted one though, but i never got it and i didnt have money myself to buy one hehe :\), but i do remember that NES games costed about the same as today's PS3 and Xbox 360 games usually cost, which is about 100 US dollars (converted from my country's currency).

And as you mentioned, money was worth more before, so i dont know how much $100 in my currency were worth back in the end of the 80s/begining of the 90s, but i guess that it is somewhere between $150 - $200 at least. Sounds expencive today, but i think it was worth to buy the NES games :) My mother worked at at a place that sold NES games, so we got a 20% discount (i think it was 20% at least), but we still didnt bought many games because they were rather expencive, even with a 20% discount.
 

Road

Member
I know I won't be surprised if PS3 is below 30k when we see the numbers (hopefully) tomorrow.

And, as has been explained already, there was no Silver Week last year and the next one will happen only in 2015.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Road said:
I know I won't be surprised if PS3 is below 30k when we see the numbers (hopefully) tomorrow.
Same here, i wont be that surprised if the PS3 is below 30k this week as you say, i agree :) Anything lower than 20k would surprise me a bit though.


Road said:
And, as has been explained already, there was no Silver Week last year and the next one will happen only in 2015.
Oh, i missed that, sorry :\ I did a quick search on Google earlier for "Silver Week 2008" or something and i found a website, but i didnt read carefully enought, because i now see that this website actually talked about the Silver Week 2009 and not 2008 as i first though, i sorry for the mistake :\ How big chance is there that the Silver Week could affect the hardware sales?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
test_account said:
How much is "a big drop"? I agree that the PS3 will most likely drop this week, but i dont really have much thoughs about how big or small the drop will be. If i remember correctly, last week (or the week before that) i saw someone who predicted the PS3 hardware to sell something like 30k eventhough that it was known that Tales of Vesperia would come out (i dont know if they concidered or remembered the release of Tales of Vesperia though). So who knows how this weeks PS3 hardware sales will look like next week :) By ye, Tales games are usually very frontloaded in sales as you say, so this might affect the PS3 hardware sales indeed.

Maybe i am taking this too literally, but is 55k really concidered as "dead"? (despite the big drop from the previous week, 55k a week is still 55k a week :)). Or maybe you mean it died because of the big drop in sales compared to the previous week? I think that it shall be interesting to see how the PS3 will continue to sell though. I am pretty curious about how the new PS3 sales baseline will look like.
Second week of slim was, no matter how look at the number, underwhelming and definetely didn't live up to the expectations the launch week created. If this week PS3 sells close to 30K it will end every theory that it would have a resurrection aka PSP slim and will prove right everyone who said that slim would give PS3 just a temporary (but a little bigger than expected) bump.

The phrases "it's alive" and "it died" I used are more or less what was posted in these threads when the hardware numbers came out. They are not mine.
 
Chris1964 said:
Second week of slim was, no matter how look at the number, underwhelming and definetely didn't live up to the expectations the launch week created. If this week PS3 sells close to 30K it will end every theory that it would have a resurrection aka PSP slim and will prove right everyone who said that slim would give PS3 just a temporary (but a little bigger than expected) bump.

The phrases "it's alive" and "it died" I used are more or less what was posted in these threads when the hardware numbers came out. They are not mine.

Second week of slim was only underwhelming because the first week sold about double what everyone expected. Remember, the PS3 is supposed to be selling less than the Wii weekly under normal conditions, and the Wii is selling ~15k right now. So 30k would still be awesome.

With that said, I fully expect the PS3 to sell over 30k this week. Anything less than 35k would be disappointing for me.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Chris1964 said:
Second week of slim was, no matter how look at the number, underwhelming and definetely didn't live up to the expectations the launch week created. If this week PS3 sells close to 30K it will end every theory that it would have a resurrection aka PSP slim and will prove right everyone who said that slim would give PS3 just a temporary (but a little bigger than expected) bump.
Ye, i am not saying anything against that there wasnt a big drop the PS3 Slim launch week to the week after that. When i said "55k is still 55k" i didnt try to spin it that the drop wasnt that bad just to underline that in case what i said was understood like this, i just wanted to say that 55k consoles sold in one week is still 55k no matter how big the drop is :) When i asked "how much is a big drop?", it was a question towards when you said that the PS3 will see a big drop this week, i just wondered how much "a big drop" is :)

About the 30k for the PS3 hardware sales this week, if this happends, i still think it is a bit too early to say exactly how the PS3 baseline will be in the upcoming times. That would be a drop of about ~20k (from 50k to 30k). I think we need to see 3-4 weeks or so in a row with more similar/closer PS3 hardware sales numbers before we can see where the baseline will stay.


Chris1964 said:
The phrases "it's alive" and "it died" I used are more or less what was posted in these threads when the hardware numbers came out. They are not mine.
Ah ok, i understand, i was just wondering if the PS3 was "dead" at 55k, eventhough that there were a big drop from the PS3 Slim launch week to the week after that. Thanks for the answer :)
 

gerg

Member
vicissitudes said:
Second week of slim was only underwhelming because the first week sold about double what everyone expected. Remember, the PS3 is supposed to be selling less than the Wii weekly under normal conditions, and the Wii is selling ~15k right now. So 30k would still be awesome.

With that said, I fully expect the PS3 to sell over 30k this week. Anything less than 35k would be disappointing for me.

The problem is never with the sales in any given individual week, but how those sales transform into a momentum that can propel interest in the PS3 over the long term. The reason why selling "only" 50k on the second week of the PS3 Slim launch is bad isn't that it's only 50 thousand units, but that's its over 100 thousand less than the sales were a week before. Similarly, selling 30 thousand units in a week is, in a vacuum, quite respectable. The problem is that this represents a significant drop in sales, suggesting that the price drop and the redesign have done little to alter the PS3's perception, and have simply offered its old image at a lower price.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
gerg said:
The problem is that this represents a vast drop in sales, suggesting that the price drop and the redesign have done little to alter the PS3's perception, and have simply offered its old image at a lower price.
Isnt it a bit early to say this with accuracy? The old PS3 image was around 10k hardware sales a week, at least in my opinion. This might happend with the PS3 Slim and with the pricedrop as well in some weeks/months or so, but we havnt seen this yet at least. And a drop in the PS3 sales might indicate that the PS3's image havnt changed much, i agree, but i think it is a bit too early to say where the PS3 drop will stop at.

If the PS3 manages to stay around 15k each week for the upcoming weeks/months, i actually think that the PS3 image has been improved a little, at least if we compare it to the ~10k that the PS3 used to sell on a weekly basis for a longer period of time :)

EDIT: I added some text.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
test_account said:
Isnt it a bit early to say this with accuracy? The old PS3 image was around 10k hardware sales a week, at least in my opinion. This might happend with the PS3 Slim and with the pricedrop as well in some weeks/months or so, but we havnt seen this yet at least. And a drop in the PS3 sales might indicate that the PS3's image havnt changed much, i agree, but i think it is a bit too early to say where the PS3 drop will stop at.

If the PS3 manages to stay around 15k each week for the upcoming weeks/months, i actually think that the PS3 image has been improved a little, at least if we compare it to the ~10k that the PS3 used to sell on a weekly basis for a longer period of time :)

EDIT: I added some text.

The PS3 will DEFINITELY stay above that through the holidays. Heck, I'd be surprised if it was under 30k for the rest of the year.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
test_account said:
Isnt it a bit early to say this with accuracy? The old PS3 image was around 10k hardware sales a week, at least in my opinion. This might happend with the PS3 Slim and with the pricedrop as well in some weeks/months or so, but we havnt seen this yet at least. And a drop in the PS3 sales might indicate that the PS3's image havnt changed much, i agree, but i think it is a bit too early to say where the PS3 drop will stop at.

If the PS3 manages to stay around 15k each week for the upcoming weeks/months, i actually think that the PS3 image has been improved a little, at least if we compare it to the ~10k that the PS3 used to sell on a weekly basis :)

EDIT: I added some text.

from 10K to 15k after a redesign and about $100 price drop is not much. :S
it is probably not even a statistically significant improvement. 5k a week would probably happen normally throughout the year
 

test_account

XP-39C²
jeremy1456 said:
The PS3 will DEFINITELY stay above that through the holidays. Heck, I'd be surprised if it was under 30k for the rest of the year.
Ye, i dont think that there is a big chance that we will see many ~15k weeks with the PS3 for the rest of the year, but if i remember correctly, there one period (in October i think?) for about 3 weeks where there arent any PS3 games being released. I wouldnt be too surprised if we see a ~15k week for the PS3 hardware sales in this period, but i guess it depends a bit on how big the PS3 drop will be in this week and in the next week. If the PS3 is around 20k-25k in 2 weeks, then maybe there is a bigger chance that we will see a ~15k week for the PS3 this year. But we will see what happends :)
 

gerg

Member
test_account said:
Isnt it a bit early to say this with accuracy? The old PS3 image was around 10k hardware sales a week, at least in my opinion. This might happend with the PS3 Slim and with the pricedrop as well in some weeks/months or so, but we havnt seen this yet at least.

Indeed, more information will be needed to confirm this. The point is that so far the PS3 Slim fits in with previous price drops, so we may not have much reason to expect it to perform any differently.

If the PS3 manages to stay around 15k each week for the upcoming weeks/months, i actually think that the PS3 image has been improved a little, at least if we compare it to the ~10k that the PS3 used to sell on a weekly basis for a longer period of time :)

"In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king." The point being is that the king still only has one eye, and that Sony should not be happy by making 15k-a-week sales their baseline after a $100 price reduction and the launch of a redesign.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
amtentori said:
from 10K to 15k after a redesign and about $100 price drop is not much. :S
it is probably not even a statistically significant improvement. 5k a week would probably happen normally throughout the year
Sure, it is not much indeed as you say, i agree, but 15k is a small improvement over 10k at least :) And if this will be the case, couldnt we say that the PS3 image has changed a little? Not much though, but a little?


amtentori said:
it is probably not even a statistically significant improvement. 5k a week would probably happen normally throughout the year
How do you mean?


gerg said:
Indeed, more information will be needed to confirm this. The point is that so far the PS3 Slim fits in with previous price drops, so we may not have much reason to expect it to perform any differently.
That is true, but now the price is $299, and this might be a new factor that can change the PS3's weekly baseline. If this doesnt happend and if the PS3 starts to see several of ~10k weeks even with a $299 pricetag, then we can probably assume that the price isnt PS3's biggest problem. $299 might still be the most expencive console on the current market (or the Xbox 360 Elite probably also cost $299, but it is possible to buy a Xbox 360 Arcade for cheaper price instead), but still, $299 should be an acceptable price for a PS3, at least in my opinion.


gerg said:
"In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king." The point being is that the king still only has one eye, and that Sony should not be happy by making 15k-a-week sales their baseline after a $100 price reduction and the launch of a redesign.
Sure, i dont mean to say that 15k a week is necessarily a good result and that Sony should be happy about this, but i just wanted to mention that 15k a week is a small improvement over 10k a week, which the PS3 have seen several of times since it was launched in the end of 2006 (there were actually 19 weeks in 2008 where the PS3 sold under 10k (Media Create numbers). And if there is an improvement in sales, even if there is a small improvement, couldnt this be seen as some change in the PS3 image, if more people are buying the console compared to before? :) More people that buy usually means that people are interested in a product, and what made them be more interested in the product (in this case the PS3)?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Code:
week      from             to              WII        PS3
1	29/12/08	04/01/09	119.965	    60.654
2	05/01/09	11/01/09	 41.243	    28.144
3	12/01/09	18/01/09	 32.333	    20.690
4	19/01/09	25/01/09	 26.770	    17.708
5	26/01/09	01/02/09	 23.278     17.405
6	02/02/09	08/02/09	 20.412	    16.082
7	09/02/09	15/02/09	 21.016	    18.656
8	16/02/09	22/02/09	 16.973	    16.149
9	23/02/09	01/03/09	 17.876	    36.513
10	02/03/09	08/03/09	 16.560     39.835
11	09/03/09	15/03/09	 17.941	    28.014
12	16/03/09	22/03/09	 18.095	    25.435
13	23/03/09	29/03/09	 17.276	    22.825
14	30/03/09	05/04/09	 15.525	    20.362
15	06/04/09	12/04/09	 13.349	    16.701
16	13/04/09	19/04/09	 13.221	    62.527
17	20/04/09	26/04/09	 18.439	    23.351
18	27/04/09	03/05/09	 21.546	    23.588
19	04/05/09	10/05/09	 24.397	    18.483
20	11/05/09	17/05/09	 15.116	    11.605
21	18/05/09	24/05/09	 16.233	    10.932
22	25/05/09	31/05/09	 17.810	    12.427
23	01/06/09	07/06/09	 17.177	    10.173
24	08/06/09	14/06/09	 18.442	    10.009
25	15/06/09	21/06/09	 19.386	    10.359
26	22/06/09	28/06/09	 21.790	    11.310
27	29/06/09	05/07/09	 24.971	    11.196
28	06/07/09	12/07/09	 22.141	     9.864
29	13/07/09	19/07/09	 20.807	     8.865
30	20/07/09	26/07/09	 23.995	     8.997
31	27/07/09	02/08/09	 95.357	     8.760
32	03/08/09	09/08/09	 47.140	     5.826
33	10/08/09	16/08/09	 47.732	     5.944
34	17/08/09	23/08/09	 26.972	     2.052
35	24/08/09	30/08/09	 25.038	     1.040
36	31/08/09	06/09/09	 21.557	   151.783
37	07/09/09	13/09/09	 17.568	    55.344
38	14/09/09	20/09/09	 16.698	    51.055

Where does this 10K average for PS3 comes from? According to m-create PS3 fell below 15K after the 19th week of this year, below the 10K after the 27th and started pulling very low numbers after the strong rumors / confirmation of the slim. Averaging less than 20K a week the new year (2010) after a major redesign and a big price cut is a disaster, when these are the numbers PS3 fat made.
 

sinseers

Member
You can call it a hunch, but I think PS3 may have officially turned a corner this time. I can't explain fully why I feel that's the case. Must be the UC2 and FFXIII hype.
 
amtentori said:
from 10K to 15k after a redesign and about $100 price drop is not much. :S
it is probably not even a statistically significant improvement. 5k a week would probably happen normally throughout the year
Of course the PS3 hasn't been doing exactly 10k a week; big releases always crank up hardware when the base numbers are this small, so yes there are fluctuations. But a change of the sales floor by 50% would actually be quite a significant achievement. PS3 is never going to be DS, or even PSP. But improving to the point where it's always doing at least what the Wii is doing right now--with spikes whenever its big titles come out--would be a big turnaround, considering its history.

In comparison, this would be the same as if the imminent price drop caused the Wii to average about 24k in empty weeks (a 50% increase from its current ~16k floor). That's not world-beating either, but it would change the climate, right? In the end, I think you're just perceiving the small absolute difference for PS3--5k a week, 150k a year--without taking into consideration the percentages. A 25% price drop causing a 50% sales increase is well within reasonable expectations.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Chris1964 said:
*hardware numbers*

Where does this 10K average for PS3 comes from? According to m-create PS3 fell below 15K after the 19th week of this year, below the 10K after the 27th and started pulling very low numbers after the strong rumors / confirmation of the slim. Averaging less than 20K a week the new year (2010) after a major redesign and a big price cut is a disaster, when these are the numbers PS3 fat made.
I dont think that anyone have mentioned 10k average, at least i didnt mean to do that. I just said that the PS3 have seen several of weeks around 10k (give or take a few thousands consoles/units around 10k). As your numbers shows, before the PS3 Slim launch, the PS3 was around ~10k a week for about 12 weeks in a row and 4 weeks in a row where the PS3 was good below 10k. The PS3 hasnt been around ~10k a week in average as you say, that is true, but it havnt been that unusal/uncommon to see the PS3 around 10k a week for several of weeks at least.

EDIT: I added some text.
 

spwolf

Member
gerg said:
The problem is never with the sales in any given individual week, but how those sales transform into a momentum that can propel interest in the PS3 over the long term. The reason why selling "only" 50k on the second week of the PS3 Slim launch is bad isn't that it's only 50 thousand units, but that's its over 100 thousand less than the sales were a week before. Similarly, selling 30 thousand units in a week is, in a vacuum, quite respectable. The problem is that this represents a significant drop in sales, suggesting that the price drop and the redesign have done little to alter the PS3's perception, and have simply offered its old image at a lower price.

the problem is that you are one week behind :lol
 
sinseers said:
You can call it a hunch, but I think PS3 may have officially turned a corner this time. I can't explain fully why I feel that's the case. Must be the UC2 and FFXIII hype.


In all seriousness, what the hell does "turned a corner" mean? What corner? selling units corner? software corner? Dev support corner? "More gooder" corner?
 

EXGN

Member
Chris1964 said:
Where does this 10K average for PS3 comes from? According to m-create PS3 fell below 15K after the 19th week of this year, below the 10K after the 27th and started pulling very low numbers after the strong rumors / confirmation of the slim. Averaging less than 20K a week the new year (2010) after a major redesign and a big price cut is a disaster, when these are the numbers PS3 fat made.

I said the same thing in another tread and got ridiculed. The PS3 was selling an average of like 20K/week until the summer when the supply was constrained and the rampant rumors of the price drops hit.

Also, I'm not sure if I see the PS3 doing as bad as so many think it will in October. Quite a few key releases, like a new Musou game, Tekken 6, Bayonetta, WKC EX and NGS2.
 

sinseers

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
In all seriousness, what the hell does "turned a corner" mean? What corner? selling units corner? software corner? Dev support corner? "More gooder" corner?


As far as Japan is concerned, probably all of the above.
 

gerg

Member
spwolf said:
the problem is that you are one week behind :lol

I'm not sure I follow.

The PS3 had two 50k weeks in a row. One of those was most likely due to the release Tales of Vesperia. If so, this week the PS3 could see sales of around 30k. Such an hypothesis will be tested very soon.

I wouldn't be so smug next time.

Liabe Brave said:
Of course the PS3 hasn't been doing exactly 10k a week; big releases always crank up hardware when the base numbers are this small, so yes there are fluctuations. But a change of the sales floor by 50% would actually be quite a significant achievement. PS3 is never going to be DS, or even PSP. But improving to the point where it's always doing at least what the Wii is doing right now--with spikes whenever its big titles come out--would be a big turnaround, considering its history.

In comparison, this would be the same as if the imminent price drop caused the Wii to average about 24k in empty weeks (a 50% increase from its current ~16k floor). That's not world-beating either, but it would change the climate, right? In the end, I think you're just perceiving the small absolute difference for PS3--5k a week, 150k a year--without taking into consideration the percentages. A 25% price drop causing a 50% sales increase is well within reasonable expectations.

Is this a joke post?

test_account said:
That is true, but now the price is $299, and this might be a new factor that can change the PS3's weekly baseline. If this doesnt happend and if the PS3 starts to see several of ~10k weeks even with a $299 pricetag, then we can probably assume that the price isnt PS3's biggest problem. $299 might still be the most expencive console on the current market (or the Xbox 360 Elite probably also cost $299, but it is possible to buy a Xbox 360 Arcade for cheaper price instead), but still, $299 should be an acceptable price for a PS3, at least in my opinion.

Unfortunately, it seems that many people do not think that $299 is the right price for a PS3.

Sure, i dont mean to say that 15k a week is necessarily a good result and that Sony should be happy about this, but i just wanted to mention that 15k a week is a small improvement over 10k a week, which the PS3 have seen several of times since it was launched in the end of 2006 (there were actually 19 weeks in 2008 where the PS3 sold under 10k (Media Create numbers). And if there is an improvement in sales, even if there is a small improvement, couldnt this be seen as some change in the PS3 image, if more people are buying the console compared to before? :) More people that buy usually means that people are interested in a product, and what made them be more interested in the product (in this case the PS3)?

Of course selling 15 thousand units a week is better than selling 10 thousand units a week. But to say this is like saying that being punched in the face is better than being shot in the arm. One's better than the other, but they're still rubbish situations you'd rather not be in.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
gerg said:
Unfortunately, it seems that many people do not think that $299 is the right price for a PS3.
Ye, probably, especially when the competetors (the Wii and the Xbox 360) cost less. Then they might buy one of these (or both) consoles instead of buying a PS3. But i think it shall be interesting to see what the PS3 will sell on a weekly basis now that the price is $299 at least :)


gerg said:
Of course selling 15 thousand units a week is better than selling 10 thousand units a week. But to say this is like saying that being punched in the face is better than being shot in the arm. One's better than the other, but they're still rubbish situations you'd rather not be in.
I see what you mean, and i agree, but i was thinking more about from the consumers point of view. I should have mentioned that in my previous posts, i am sorry :\ If more people/consumers buys the PS3 now when the PS3 costs $299 and when the PS3 got a redesign, it means that there is a higher interest in the PS3 in general and doesnt this mean that the PS3 image has changed a bit? Before the consumers might have been looking at the PS3 as "this console cost too much", but now that the PS3 price is cheaper, maybe more of these people looks at the PS3 more as "this is an affordable console". And in this way, i wanted to ask if the PS3 image could change, if you know what i mean?

This is of course only if the PS3 baseline increases. If the PS3 baseline doesnt change that much, then most people/consumers probably have the old PS3 image in mind and then the PS3 image probably havnt changed much indeed as you said earlier, i agree. And people might still have the old PS3 image in mind even now when the PS3 costs $299, but what about people in general? :)
 

Dragon

Banned
gerg said:
Unfortunately, it seems that many people do not think that $299 is the right price for a PS3.

You're basing this on what evidence? Do we have numbers for this week or NPD numbers for September that I'm unaware of?
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
TheBranca18 said:
You're basing this on what evidence? Do we have numbers for this week or NPD numbers for September that I'm unaware of?

off the top of my head i'd assume he was talking about the region whose sales we're talking about in this thread
 

gerg

Member
TheBranca18 said:
You're basing this on what evidence? Do we have numbers for this week or NPD numbers for September that I'm unaware of?

First of all, we're talking about Japan here, so I don't think that NPD figures are all that relevant.

Secondly, yes, my statement was a bit premature, but I made it within the context of my theory that the PS3's price drop has been ineffective in propelling demand for the console. And, as I have said, this hypothesis will be tested this week.

Please don't be so quick on the attack.

test_account said:
I see what you mean, and i agree, but i was thinking more about from the consumers point of view. I should have mentioned that in my previous posts, i am sorry :\ If more people/consumers buys the PS3 now when the PS3 costs $299 and when the PS3 got a redesign, it means that there is a higher interest in the PS3 in general and doesnt this mean that the PS3 image has changed a bit? Before the consumers might have been looking at the PS3 as "this console cost too much", but now that the PS3 price is cheaper, maybe more of these people looks at the PS3 more as "this is an affordable console". And in this way, i wanted to ask if the PS3 image could change, if you know what i mean?

I think you're putting too much significance in the idea of being affordable. What's important is not whether or not a person could afford to buy something - in the sense that they would not be in debt were they to buy that object - but whether or not they find value in doing so, a matter which is entirely different.
 

Kenka

Member
Motherfucking Super CastleVania IV was 169 swiss francs in 1992. That's 140 € by current standards.

I think Secret of Mana was the same.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
gerg said:
I think you're putting too much significance in the idea of being affordable. What's important is not whether or not a person could afford to buy something - in the sense that they would not be in debt were they to buy that object - but whether or not they find value in doing so, a matter which is entirely different.
Ye, i didnt mean to say that the price alone is the only thing that holds people back from buying a PS3. It might be that the general interest in the PS3 isnt high enough and that people dont see enough value in the PS3, even at a pricetag of $299. The interest in the PS3 itself must definitly be there if people want to buy it, the pricetag alone isnt necessarily enough for people to be interested in a PS3. Is this what you ment that the PS3 imagine might still be the same, that people might not have increased interest in the PS3 just because of a lower pricetag? If yes, then i agree to this. A lower pricetag might not be enough for people to buy a PS3.

But what i wrote in my previous post here, i ment that if people find value and are interested in buying a PS3, then maybe the pricetag have hold them back from buying a PS3. There are for example several of things that i wouldnt mind to buy, but i think that these things cost a bit too much, so i dont buy these things because of the price. But when (or if) the price comes down, then i might buy those things :)

If the interest in the PS3 in general is low and if people dont see too much value in it, then it is not sure that a lower price will help too much indeed. There are several of things that i can afford to buy, but that i havnt bought yet because my interest for these things isnt high enough for me that i want to buy them.

Who knows if there will be a similar situation with the PS3 where people are interested in buying a PS3 and see the value in the PS3, but that the price have hold them back from buying it though, at least i think there might be a possibilty of this, but unfortunately i have no idea how big of possibility it is for this. But only time will tell if the PS3 will sell more consoles/units now that it cost $299. Maybe a pricetag of $299 is still too high for many people, especially when a Wii and a Xbox 360 Arcade is cheaper. But i think that it shall be interesting to see what happends with the PS3 sales (and with the Wii sales and the Xbox 360 sales as well) in the upcoming week, months and years at least :)


Kenka said:
Motherfucking Super CastleVania IV was 169 swiss francs in 1992. That's 140 € by current standards.

I think Secret of Mana was the same.
Those are some expecive games indeed. I am glad we dont have to pay those prices for games today :)

EDIT: I added some text.
 

Dragon

Banned
Stumpokapow said:
off the top of my head i'd assume he was talking about the region whose sales we're talking about in this thread

Then he shouldn't have used dollars to describe the price then.

gerg said:
First of all, we're talking about Japan here, so I don't think that NPD figures are all that relevant.

Secondly, yes, my statement was a bit premature, but I made it within the context of my theory that the PS3's price drop has been ineffective in propelling demand for the console. And, as I have said, this hypothesis will be tested this week.

Please don't be so quick on the attack.

Yes well, I think I answered that above with Stump's typical sarcastic response.

Your statement was premature indeed.

Quick on the attack? Not sure I understand what you mean.
 

gerg

Member
TheBranca18 said:
Yes well, I think I answered that above with Stump's typical sarcastic response.

Your statement was premature indeed.

Quick on the attack? Not sure I understand what you mean.

Perhaps you could have pointed out my mistake, rather than jumping on me in an accusatory tone. I don't see why there's much to get worked up over here, but (unless I'm wrong) you seemed to think different.

I used "$299" because I don't know the PS3 Slim's price in Yen, and because it easily reflects the lower price of the PS3 in any region.
 
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