Media Create Sales: Week 24, 2015 (Jun 08 - Jun 14)

[Chris1964]

Releasing two versions of the same game with different content works wonders for Pokemon and Yokai, not really surprised it would for FE as well.

If they release 3 versions then it will do even better.

 

[Mpl90]

If they release 3 versions then it will do even better.

10 versions = 1 million at launch confirmed

 

[Vena]

YSO predictions

Week 26, 2015 (Jun 22 - Jun 28)

[3DS] Fire Emblem Fates < 350k
[PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward < 100k
[PSV] Persona 4: Dancing All Night < 80k

[PS4+PS3] Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward < 140k

So we should expect a decent bump on the PS4 and the 3DS. I wonder how far down the WiiU has fallen by now.

 

[Takao]

That would be a really low debut for a new Persona spin off. Where is the fan base at?

Playing something that isn't a rhythm game.
Waiting for Persona 5.
Tired of Persona 4.

DAN is also the only recent Persona spinoff to launch without an accompanying anime series.

While each game has its own audience, this summer is kind of insane for the genre too. You have Rhythm Heaven out right now, Persona 4 DAN, Deemo and Taiko V Version in the next few weeks and then IA/VT Colorful in August.

 

[vinnygambini]

I'm surprised by FE:If.

I thought it would debut similarly to FE:A and have a lower finish than its predecessor, seems like expectations are up there to have the best opening and hopefully the best-selling in the franchise.

 

[Vena]

I'm surprised by FE:If.

I thought it would debut similarly to FE:A and have a lower finish than its predecessor, seems like expectations are up there to have the best opening and hopefully the best-selling in the franchise.

Well, despite the narrative of Nintendo being out of touch with its fans... this game is tailor made for its fan with many much needed fixes and updates to old systems.

Such a bizarre company, I blame Reggie warping our perspective.

 

[vinnygambini]

Well, despite the narrative of Nintendo being out of touch with its fans... this game is tailor made for its fan with many much needed fixes and updates to old systems.

Such a bizarre company, I blame Reggie warping our perspective.

I'd argue that Nintendo/Intelligent Systems sought a broader audience for Fire Emblem with the release of FE:A, and have continued to do so, while still catering to their core fanbase.

The announcement of Metroid was just poorly thought out and the backlash illustrates that narrative completely.

It's like having the Pokemon IP dormant for a number of years (five in this case) and the next reveal of the franchise would be... Pokemon Dancing.

TPC would be dead. Nintendo didn't think this through.

Vena pls, where's Kirby.

 

[Vena]

I'd argue that Nintendo/Intelligent Systems sought a broader audience for Fire Emblem with the release of FE:A, and have continued to do so, while still catering to their core fanbase.

Well, ya, that's brand growth 101 but you still have to strive and work for pleasing the fans. FE:A had some stumbling blocks where it really did do some things very badly for older, core fans of the series and pissed them off/pushed them away. You can see changes to that end showing up in FE:If with the two modes, the re-balancing of the Party-Up, the adjustments to the weapon triangle, and so on.

FE:A was a very unbalanced game from the perspective of an older FE fan. And Nohr seems to have been tailor made for that older fan, while Phoenix Mode and Hoshido is very much made for the "new" fan who pushed the game into a mainstream success.

... I'd argue we're seeing the opposite out of the Persona team/SEGA, lol.

The announcement of Metroid was just poorly thought out and the backlash illustrates that narrative completely.

Indeed. Pity, too, because I think Tanabe's concept behind it is solid. His interviews are quite clear that he sees this as a Metroid Prime game, and that this is the best he can do for the time being between main-line Primes.

This is where a developer interview on the DE would have been great. Tanabe is one of the big heads behind the Prime series, and if you had put him out there being humble with his presentation and explaining his idea, I think the reaction would have been very different.

Vena pls, where's Kirby.

On vacation.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Man, who was that guy claiming that P4D was going to be the worst performing spin-off? Heh, might have totally proved me wrong. I thought P4D was definitely going to perform better than P4AU, as a fighting game spin-off sequel, especially since P4D has been getting a lot of marketing.

DAN is also the only recent Persona spinoff to launch without an accompanying anime series.

Wait, which were the ones for Persona 4 Arena Ultimax and Persona Q? Oh you mean the Persona 4 Golden anime? I guess.

 

[Chris1964]

Man, who was that guy claiming that P4D was going to be the worst performing spin-off? Heh, might have totally proved me wrong. I thought P4D was definitely going to perform better than P4AU, as a fighting game spin-off sequel, especially since P4D has been getting a lot of marketing.

How much do you think Arena Ultimax has sold? That game was oveshipped and showed zero legs after launch.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

How much do you think Arena Ultimax has sold? That game was oveshipped and showed zero legs after launch.

I'm talking about FW sales, which Famitsu lists as 85k. Its LTD was around 120k last I checked. So you're saying P4D will indeed do better than that?

 

[theprodigy]

so how are we counting sales for Fates anyway

special edition=1 or 2?

Spoiler

also I wonder how many people will purchase the other route

I'm surprised by FE:If.

I thought it would debut similarly to FE:A and have a lower finish than its predecessor, seems like expectations are up there to have the best opening and hopefully the best-selling in the franchise.

vinny pls, nothing indicated this ever

 

[Chris1964]

I'm talking about FW sales, which Famitsu lists as 85k. Its LTD was around 120k last I checked. So you're saying P4D will indeed do better than that?

Outselling or not FW sales means nothing and I don't see 120k as an untouchable target for a rthythm game.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Outselling or not FW sales means nothing and I don't see 120k as an untouchable target for a rthythm game.

Nothing in the long run, but that's not what I was talking about when talking about the other user I was having this debate with before. FW sales was what we were talking about back then, based on Comgnet numbers, so you're addressing a different point than my original post was.

For LTD? Sure, of course that's possible for a rhythm game. Several rhythm games have done that.

 

[MasterSheen]

I figured Fates would debut higher than Awakening but I still low balled my prediction

 

[Ōkami]

Fire Emblem Fate is being combined? That sucks.

How's FFXIV doing against DQX?

 

[Xbro]

How much do you think Arena Ultimax has sold? That game was oveshipped and showed zero legs after launch.

Isn't it at like 120K?

Anyway if DAN can get some decent legs, perhaps it could make it.

Fire Emblem Fate is being combined? That sucks.

How's FFXIV doing against DQX?

I'm not quite sure on everything, but was ARR the first of FFXIV?

If so these are FW sales.

FFXIV:ARR (PS3 + PS4) - 218K
DQX v1 (WIU + WII) - 456K

FFXIV:HS (PS3 + PS4) - < 140K
DQX v2 (WIU + WII) - 179K


I can't find data for FFXIV that isn't ARR, so this might be a little off.

 

[Busaiku]

The real question is how much more Hoshido sold than Nohr.

 

[theprodigy]

The real question is how much more Hoshido sold than Nohr.

nah, the real question is how many people who don't get the special edition buy the other route

 

[Vena]

nah, the real question is how many people who don't get the special edition buy the other route

Probably a lot if the game is good enough.

 

[Ōkami]

Don't you get the other version as DLC for like half the price?

Digital the game should do pretty good.

 

[vinnygambini]

nah, the real question is how many people who don't get the special edition buy the other route

DLC adoption rate was very good for FE:A, so I'm hoping it translates well to FE:If

 

[theprodigy]

DLC adoption rate was very good for FE:A, so I'm hoping it translates well to FE:If

did we ever get actual numbers on DLC?

Spoiler

and it's FE Fates

 

[vinnygambini]

did we ever get actual numbers on DLC?

Spoiler

and it's FE Fates

1.2 million DLC sold solely in Japan (other territories excluded) - revenue of 380 million yen minimum.

And that was back in 2012.

http://www.siliconera.com/2012/09/22/fire-emblem-awakening-dlc-sales-in-japan-are-doing-well/

FE:If is superior

( &#865;° &#860;&#662; &#865;°)

 

[Vena]

1.2 million DLC sold solely in Japan (other territories excluded) - revenue of 380 million yen minimum.

Wasn't part of the DLC initially free in Japan?

 

[vinnygambini]

Wasn't part of the DLC initially free in Japan?

Iwata mentioned 380 million yen was generated from the 1.2 million DLC downloaded.

Some of it may be free, but dat $.

 

[Nirolak]

The last two Fire Emblem games are a great example of how to handle a franchise well and capitalize on its success.

With Fire Emblem: Awakening, Intelligent Systems found themselves in a position where they had to sell 180,000 copies or lose the series. As such, instead of playing it safe, they decided to do what was essentially a reboot and put all their effort into making it a notable success. They set it 1000 years after the first game within the same world. They got a new character designer who better matched the taste of the market. They made it way more accessible for first time players. They ensured the graphics were of high quality for the genre and platform. They added in a bunch of new features like team attacks, marriage, children, and reclassing. They put in a bunch of CG cutscenes for key points in the story and made sure they looked good. They let you create and customize your own character. They put a whole bunch of voice acting the game. They included a strong DLC campaign of both free and paid content with frequent updates to encourage people to hang on to the game and keep playing. In the end, they ended up sell almost exactly 10 times their sales target. For a dying series this was a very risky move, but absolutely the correct one, and paid off in spades.

Now, at this point, a lot of developers, especially domestically, would rest on their laurels on ship a minorly upgraded version of the same vision, feeling that they had found the formula for success and should stick to it. This is how you get products like Tales of Xillia 2, Final Fantasy XIII-2, or Bravely Second. However, where Intelligent Systems got this incredibly right (for the second time in a row) was that they instead said "Now how do we take what we did and make just as big a jump as we did last time?" They decided to build three campaigns, one for newer/more casual players, one for older players/those who want something more difficult, with a DLC campaign afterwards for both. They added in a town building system with notable social hooks. They put in a bunch of new classes. They majorly redesigned core systems like the weapon triangle and weapon durability. They added in a ton of new victory conditions for battles. They changed up how the world map works. They made the battlefields change mid-match. It feels like we've seen more CG in the trailers for this game than even existed in the last game. They made sure to retain and enhance popular features from the last game, for example keeping the team attacks, but letting enemies use them too to improve the balance. This is a game that feels like a major step forward for the series, so it's not shocking that it's getting a very positive reception and is poised to sell better than the last one.

This is the same strategy that built the mega blockbusters we see in the West, and those who didn't keep up got shut down. The lower effort spin-offs we see abroad also see the same sales drop as games I listed below (Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel, Battlefield Hardline, God of War: Ascension, Gears of War: Judgement, Arkham Origins, Assassin's Creed: Revelations). Of course, the reason we don't see this as often in Japan is that this is very expensive. If you have to make a major leap forward with every entry, pretty soon your costs get very high unless you're constantly pioneering ways to work more and more efficiently. Even then, you're usually looking at some healthy cost expansion. When you're in a dying market, that can be intimidating. Fire Emblem has 1.2+ million copies sold in the West to help bolster confidence, whereas that's certainly not true of every franchise in the region.

 

[duckroll]

I think what Nirolak is telling us is that in 5 years we'll be playing a full open world Fire Emblem with online multiplayer conquest mode on the NX.

 

[RyougaSaotome]

I think what Nirolak is telling us is that in 5 years we'll be playing a full open world Fire Emblem with online multiplayer conquest mode on the NX.

With cart-racing mini game.

Please don't forget that.

 

[Entryhazard]

It's still impressive how Fire Emblem suddenly became a runaway success after 20+ years from the debut of the franchise.

 

[Oregano]

I think what Nirolak is telling us is that in 5 years we'll be playing a full open world Fire Emblem with online multiplayer conquest mode on the NX.

Fire Emblem's Dogma Online instead of Fire Emblem Musou? I can dig it.

EDIT: On the note of Bravely: If SE wanted to rescue the series(they don't) they could wait until the 3DS' sucessor/NX and launch a Bravely Default 2(pretty much demoting Second from mainline) set in a new world with a new cast of characters.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I, for one, welcome our new waifu and imouto overlords.

Seriously though, Fire Emblem x Dragon's Dogma would be legit as fuck.

 

[Nirolak]

Fire Emblem's Dogma Online instead of Fire Emblem Musou? I can dig it.

EDIT: On the note of Bravely: If SE wanted to rescue the series(they don't) they could wait until the 3DS' sucessor/NX and launch a Bravely Default 2(pretty much demoting Second from mainline) set in a new world with a new cast of characters.

I feel they'd also need to pour in appropriate resources into everything else as well, but yes.

Combining this with this:

It's still impressive how Fire Emblem suddenly became a runaway success after 20+ years from the debut of the franchise.

Basically the value of brands is that they get a lot of people to look at your game in the first place, but what largely determines your sales is the actual product you're shipping and how it compares to the current tastes and state of the market.

They should definitely not be viewed as a limiter (either ceiling or floor) of sales for a video game, and instead the core product should be looked at heavily as well.

 

[Vena]

The last two Fire Emblem games are a great example of how to handle a franchise well and capitalize on its success.

With Fire Emblem: Awakening, Intelligent Systems found themselves in a position where they had to sell 180,000 copies or lose the series. As such, instead of playing it safe, they decided to do what was essentially a reboot and put all their effort into making it a notable success. They set it 1000 years after the first game within the same world. They got a new character designer who better matched the taste of the market. They made it way more accessible for first time players. They ensured the graphics were of high quality for the genre and platform. They added in a bunch of new features like team attacks, marriage, children, and reclassing. They put in a bunch of CG cutscenes for key points in the story and made sure they looked good. They let you create and customize your own character. They put a whole bunch of voice acting the game. They included a strong DLC campaign of both free and paid content with frequent updates to encourage people to hang on to the game and keep playing. In the end, they ended up sell almost exactly 10 times their sales target. For a dying series this was a very risky move, but absolutely the correct one, and paid off in spades.

Now, at this point, a lot of developers, especially domestically, would rest on their laurels on ship a minorly upgraded version of the same vision, feeling that they had found the formula for success and should stick to it. This is how you get products like Tales of Xillia 2, Final Fantasy XIII-2, or Bravely Second. However, where Intelligent Systems got this incredibly right (for the second time in a row) was that they instead said "Now how do we take what we did and make just as big a jump as we did last time?" They decided to build three campaigns, one for newer/more casual players, one for older players/those who want something more difficult, with a DLC campaign afterwards for both. They added in a town building system with notable social hooks. They put in a bunch of new classes. They majorly redesigned core systems like the weapon triangle and weapon durability. They added in a ton of new victory conditions for battles. They changed up how the world map works. They made the battlefields change mid-match. It feels like we've seen more CG in the trailers for this game than even existed in the last game. They made sure to retain and enhance popular features from the last game, for example keeping the team attacks, but letting enemies use them too to improve the balance. This is a game that feels like a major step forward for the series, so it's not shocking that it's getting a very positive reception and is poised to sell better than the last one.

This is the same strategy that built the mega blockbusters we see in the West, and those who didn't keep up got shut down. The lower effort spin-offs we see abroad also see the same sales drop as games I listed below (Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel, Battlefield Hardline, God of War: Ascension, Gears of War: Judgement, Arkham Origins, Assassin's Creed: Revelations). Of course, the reason we don't see this as often in Japan is that this is very expensive. If you have to make a major leap forward with every entry, pretty soon your costs get very high unless you're constantly pioneering ways to work more and more efficiently. Even then, you're usually looking at some healthy cost expansion. When you're in a dying market, that can be intimidating. Fire Emblem has 1.2+ million copies sold in the West to help bolster confidence, whereas that's certainly not true of every franchise in the region.

*clap.gif*

Nintendo is a strange company.

I think what Nirolak is telling us is that in 5 years we'll be playing a full open world Fire Emblem with online multiplayer conquest mode on the NX.

Give it a few more DLC and Smash will have more Fire Emblem than everything else combined! /s

 

[vinnygambini]

The Fire Emblem series is now among Nintendo's B tier franchises - it's a great place to be at as it wasn't last generation.

A tier:

- Animal Crossing
- Pokemon
- Mario
- Super Smash

In between:

- Zelda
- Tomodachi

B tier:

- Kirby
- Fire Emblem
- Donkey Kong

C tier:

- Metroid
- Star Fox
- F-Zero

Anything else I might have missed?

 

[small44]

Man, who was that guy claiming that P4D was going to be the worst performing spin-off? Heh, might have totally proved me wrong. I thought P4D was definitely going to perform better than P4AU, as a fighting game spin-off sequel, especially since P4D has been getting a lot of marketing.



Wait, which were the ones for Persona 4 Arena Ultimax and Persona Q? Oh you mean the Persona 4 Golden anime? I guess.

I predicted that i don't know if someone else said that too

 

[Oregano]

I feel they'd also need to pour in appropriate resources into everything else as well, but yes.

Combining this with this:



Basically the value of brands is that they get a lot of people to look at your game in the first place, but what largely determines your sales is the actual product you're shipping and how it compares to the current tastes and state of the market.

They should definitely not be viewed as a limiter (either ceiling or floor) of sales for a video game, and instead the core product should be looked at heavily as well.

Well I was going with the assumption that by waiting for NX(or whatever) it would have to be a notable step up production values wose. Of course this is all moot because I doubt SE cares at all.

 

[theprodigy]

I think what Nirolak is telling us is that in 5 years we'll be playing a full open world Fire Emblem with online multiplayer conquest mode on the NX.

oh yeah, I'd love to play that-wait what?

lol

 

[Nirolak]

C-tier is pretty generous for the way they treat those three.

 

[Vena]

Anything else I might have missed?

The Kart series is pretty much in a league of its own at this point. (I wouldn't be surprised if Mario Kart 9 started outright becoming Smash/Nintendo Kart 1.)

Xenoblade is C-tier at current (I'd move your C-tier to D-tier), if we consider it a franchise. And I don't think we'll not see more of it as it fills in a major RPG gap for the company, and next time around Monolith might not get bridled with HD asset generation for half a generation just because Nintendo tripped out of the gate with the 3DS and HD development. (Unless #FE completely over-performs vs. my expectations.)

That's it I think, or at least that I can remember of the top of my head. Splatoon has the makings of a new B-tier.

 

[vinnygambini]

The Kart series is pretty much in a league of its own at this point. (I wouldn't be surprised if Mario Kart 9 started outright becoming Smash/Nintendo Kart 1.)

Xenoblade is C-tier at current (I'd move your C-tier to D-tier), if we consider it a franchise. And I don't think we'll not see more of it as it fills in a major RPG gap for the company, and next time around Monolith might not get bridled with HD asset generation for half a generation just because Nintendo tripped out of the gate with the 3DS and HD development. (Unless #FE completely over-performs vs. my expectations.)

That's it I think, or at least that I can remember of the top of my head. Splatoon has the makings of a new B-tier.

Mario is everything that encompasses the plumber, Kart, NSMB, etc.

Splatoon has the makings of a new B-tier most definitely; however, one would have to see how its sequel perform.

C-tier is pretty generous for the way they treat those three.

F tier?

Spoiler

For fail

( &#865;° &#860;&#662; &#865;°)

 

[Vena]

Mario is everything that encompasses the plumber, Kart, NSMB, etc.

Splatoon has the makings of a new B-tier most definitely; however, one would have to see how its sequel perform.

Honestly, in my mind, Mario Kart is evolving into Nintendo Kart, which is why I say what I said. The old "Mario and Co" is gone with MK8 and that was much to the excitement of many fans. Though they will likely keep the brand for the name recognition even if it ultimately does become Super Smash Kart. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if MK9 launched with a Smash-like roster.

As for Splatoon, ya, its untested long-term as a brand.

Also where do we fit the Mii-brand? Does that count? Or the Wario brand? Or Yoshi?

 

[Busaiku]

How can F-Zero be C tier when the last game is over 10 years old.
Star Fox somewhat consistently got new entries, including remakes.

 

[vinnygambini]

Also where do we fit the Mii-brand? Does that count? Or the Wario brand? Or Yoshi?

Wario could be placed among the C-tier franchises, failed to resonate with consumers, hence my C tier header.

The franchises are just there, they don't sell much with the exception of Yoshi.

But once again, I see Mario as Mario & Co including the likes of Yoshi, Luigi, etc.

 

[Vena]

How can F-Zero be C tier when the last game is over 10 years old.
Star Fox somewhat consistently got new entries, including remakes.

At this point F-Zero is better know for Captain Falcon's moves in Smash than as a racer.

 

[Chezzymann]

At this point F-Zero is better know for Captain Falcon's moves in Smash than as a racer.

And his butt

 

[Sterok]

That's real nice for Rhythm Heaven. Seems that Fire Emblem is poised to do well. That's great, and Nirolak's explanation as to why this sequel is pulling the numbers makes sense.

As for Nintendo franchise rankings, I made this by myself sometime ago. Criteria involves an incredibly complex formula involving sales, popularity, critical reception, gamer cred, mass awareness, recentness, visibility in Smash Bros, and my own buttocks.

S: Mario, Pokemon
A: Zelda, Animal Crossing, Super Smash Bros., Donkey Kong
B: Kirby, Metroid, Yoshi, Wario, Wii, Fire Emblem, Nintendogs, Tomodachi, Splatoon
C: Star Fox, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade, Rhythm Heaven, Touch Generations, Punch Out, Pikmin, Nintendo Land, Style Savvy
D: F-Zero, Mother, Golden Sun, Advance Wars, Game & Watch, Pushmo, Dillon's Rolling Western, Chibi-Robo, Steel Diver, Box Boy, The Wonderful 101, Codename Steam, Art Academy, Rusty's Real Deal Baseball, Fatal Frame, Fossil Fighters
E: Ice Climber, Excitebike, Starfy, Sin & Punishment, Duck Hunt, Custom Robo
F: Gyromite, Urban Champion, For the Frog the Bell Tolls, The Mysterious Murasame Castle, Sheriff, Devil World, Panel de Pon

Obviously this list is mutable, and I'm sure there are several franchises I've forgotten or can be changed. But this is probably a reasonable list of where most of them stand.

 

[Busaiku]

Splatoon, Nintendo Land, and Codename S.T.E.A.M. really don't belong, since they're not really franchises yet.
I mean Codename S.T.E.A.M. is absolutely done.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I predicted that i don't know if someone else said that too

Yeah, that was you talking about P4D's potential opening. Heh, we'll see if you were right.

 

[thesaucetastic]

And his butt

This is a very compelling argument.