Media Create Sales: Week 24, 2015 (Jun 08 - Jun 14)

Sep 1, 2013
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In general I'm expecting a ramp down in total title count between 3DS -> NX and PS3 -> PS4 due to the decreasing size of the market and increase in the amount of resources required to make games.
For traditional packaged products I tend to agree, but I get the sense Nintendo's building NX to try and attract mobile development to their ecosystem. I can see a potential outcome where NX has greater 3rd party support than 3DS did, just not the kind of 3rd party support we usually expect on consoles and handhelds.
 
Mar 13, 2013
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In general I'm expecting a ramp down in total title count between 3DS -> NX and PS3 -> PS4 due to the decreasing size of the market and increase in the amount of resources required to make games.

I'm also expecting that there will be more titles that show up on both as the increased investment calls for more platforms both for domestic and international reasons.

Most Japanese games don't push technical boundaries very hard which is why we're sitting and looking at a lot of Vita/PS4 games as it is. Something more in the ballpark just enables that even more.

We saw a lot of Japanese games end up on 360 last gen and end up on PC now because they find these extra sales worthwhile or even notably important, not to mention the amount of Sony-jigsaw-puzzle releases we see as is.
I'm actually expecting a lot of Mobile/NX games. We've already that publishers are willing to port mobile titles to dedicated platforms(Rise of Mana, Million Arthur, Battle Cats) and the big coup for Nintendo in the last two years was the Puzzle and Dragons game for 3DS.

I think Sony might pursue NX developers for PS4 versions but Nintendo's sights will be set on mobile developers.
 
May 23, 2013
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In general I'm expecting a ramp down in total title count between 3DS -> NX and PS3 -> PS4 due to the decreasing size of the market and increase in the amount of resources required to make games.

I'm also expecting that there will be more titles that show up on both as the increased investment calls for more platforms both for domestic and international reasons.

Most Japanese games don't push technical boundaries very hard which is why we're sitting and looking at a lot of Vita/PS4 games as it is. Something more in the ballpark just enables that even more.

We saw a lot of Japanese games end up on 360 last gen and end up on PC now because they find these extra sales worthwhile or even notably important, not to mention the amount of Sony-jigsaw-puzzle releases we see as is.

100% agree.
 
Aug 14, 2014
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I think the challenge for the NX in cornering the Japanese market will less be in Japan, and more the risk that the Nintendo handheld market will crash off the face of the earth in the West during the transition. The overall software situation for the 3DS is not great not so much in terms of high-profile first party games, which seem to sell well, but in how narrow that stratum is. Once you begin moving off the top ten or so games a year, your hitting the sub 100K or so range, and in Europe the situation is if anything worse, with new releases from Disney/Sports/Movie-tie-ins often releasing on the original DS as well. Most stores in fact still merge their sections with DS games getting almost as much if not more shelf-space.

The 3DS may have launched just in time to get in before the mobile/tablet storm. I think it is far from certain how much of the market still exists for a dedicated games handheld, and if the current userbase may simply stick with the DS/3DS family. Nintendo may have trouble killing its own legacy product.
 
Mar 13, 2013
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I think the challenge for the NX in cornering the Japanese market will less be in Japan, and more the risk that the Nintendo handheld market will crash off the face of the earth in the West during the transition. The overall software situation for the 3DS is not great not so much in terms of high-profile first party games, which seem to sell well, but in how narrow that stratum is. Once you begin moving off the top ten or so games a year, your hitting the sub 100K or so range, and in Europe the situation is if anything worse, with new releases from Disney/Sports/Movie-tie-ins often releasing on the original DS as well. Most stores in fact still merge their sections with DS games getting almost as much if not more shelf-space.

The 3DS may have launched just in time to get in before the mobile/tablet storm. I think it is far from certain how much of the market still exists for a dedicated games handheld, and if the current userbase may simply stick with the DS/3DS family. Nintendo may have trouble killing its own legacy product.
Well if Nintendo is going for a unified content strategy the question for NX becomes whether the 3DS' struggles were solely due to waning popularity for the hardware of that nature or waning popularity in the software of that nature. EDIT: Then again Nintendo's home consoles are in even worse shape.

On the note of sales I expect F2P to have a big place on NX.
 
Aug 14, 2014
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Well if Nintendo is going for a unified content strategy the question for NX becomes whether the 3DS' struggles were solely due to waning popularity for the hardware of that nature or waning popularity in the software of that nature. EDIT: Then again Nintendo's home consoles are in even worse shape.

On the note of sales I expect F2P to have a big place on NX.
Part of this may be a social acceptability thing. If your a professional it looks really odd to take out a plastic game system and play it on the underground or outside. Everyone fiddles with their phones. The result, I think, has been a bit of a hand-me down market where handhelds become "kids" toys, and games that appeal to them - Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, even to an extent Monster Hunter do well. But then something like Xenoblade only hits 70K, and Persona 50K.

Now those aren't bad per se, and exclude digital, but its very clear that a certain type of game is massively under-performing the installed base on the 3DS in America(and Europe), and it is ironically the same sort of game that sort of typifies the Vita. Which may be why there has not been such a rush to abandon the Vita for 3DS. The 3DS install-base is not a guaranteed seller for all genres.

Nintendo is either going to double-down on kids, in which case I think the Vita will limp on as a zombie for awhile, or they will need to make handheld gaming acceptable again.
 
sörine;169543688 said:
For traditional packaged products I tend to agree, but I get the sense Nintendo's building NX to try and attract mobile development to their ecosystem. I can see a potential outcome where NX has greater 3rd party support than 3DS did, just not the kind of 3rd party support we usually expect on consoles and handhelds.
I'm actually expecting a lot of Mobile/NX games. We've already that publishers are willing to port mobile titles to dedicated platforms(Rise of Mana, Million Arthur, Battle Cats) and the big coup for Nintendo in the last two years was the Puzzle and Dragons game for 3DS.

I think Sony might pursue NX developers for PS4 versions but Nintendo's sights will be set on mobile developers.
Yes, sorry, I totally agree.

With digital games I expect to see NX output go way up, especially from indie developers in the West and potentially a lot of mobile developers in the East.

Western mobile developers I'm a bit less sure on, but I think it is one avenue that Nintendo could pick up some traditional publisher support on. It's probably vastly easier to get EA to port over Madden Mobile and FIFA Mobile and keep them up to date than it is to get versions of the console games.
 
Mar 13, 2013
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Part of this may be a social acceptability thing. If your a professional it looks really odd to take out a plastic game system and play it on the underground or outside. Everyone fiddles with their phones. The result, I think, has been a bit of a hand-me down market where handhelds become "kids" toys, and games that appeal to them - Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, even to an extent Monster Hunter do well. But then something like Xenoblade only hits 70K, and Persona 50K.

Now those aren't bad per se, and exclude digital, but its very clear that a certain type of game is massively under-performing the installed base on the 3DS in America(and Europe), and it is ironically the same sort of game that sort of typifies the Vita. Which may be why there has not been such a rush to abandon the Vita for 3DS. The 3DS install-base is not a guaranteed seller for all genres.

Nintendo is either going to double-down on kids, in which case I think the Vita will limp on as a zombie for awhile, or they will need to make handheld gaming acceptable again.
It might be the cool factor but I think it has more to do with convenience. You're already going to be carrying your phone so gaming is an added bonus.

Yes, sorry, I totally agree.

With digital games I expect to see NX output go way up, especially from indie developers in the West and potentially a lot of mobile developers in the East.

Western mobile developers I'm a bit less sure on, but I think it is one avenue that Nintendo could pick up some traditional publisher support on. It's probably vastly easier to get EA to port over Madden Mobile and FIFA Mobile and keep them up to date than it is to get versions of the console games.
Well I think Nintendo had inroads with stuff like Cut the Rope, Doodle Jump and Angry Birds(Highest selling third party game in the US?) but I don't think anything that has been relevant recently has made the jump.

I'm actually mostly interested in seeing what Nintendo will do in regards to digital/F2P. The 3DS launched without the eShop and had stuff like Steel Diver and Pokémon Rumble Blast early on as $40 games but those games sequels are F2P now.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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On the demographic divide; I think it still exists, and I don't think it resets with each generation but brand associations positive and negative can migrate and dilute, and these have in Japan a bit. So I don't think it's as pronounced.

I think it's as strong as ever in Western markets.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Well, on the topic of franchise care, looks like data-mining has found that FE:if is filled to the gills with content between all three versions. We'll have to see how the overall reception is to the game's changes and said content but Iwata seems to have been quite genuine with fans when he told them about the lengths of each game.

I, for one, cannot wait for the 5000 hour long Metroid Prime 4 set in virtual unreality, that ships with a fully functioning Varia Suit.

Varia Suit is actually the new NX, it really is an "on the go" platform/power armor.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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Part of this may be a social acceptability thing. If your a professional it looks really odd to take out a plastic game system and play it on the underground or outside. Everyone fiddles with their phones. The result, I think, has been a bit of a hand-me down market where handhelds become "kids" toys, and games that appeal to them - Pokemon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, even to an extent Monster Hunter do well. But then something like Xenoblade only hits 70K, and Persona 50K.

Now those aren't bad per se, and exclude digital, but its very clear that a certain type of game is massively under-performing the installed base on the 3DS in America(and Europe), and it is ironically the same sort of game that sort of typifies the Vita. Which may be why there has not been such a rush to abandon the Vita for 3DS. The 3DS install-base is not a guaranteed seller for all genres.

Nintendo is either going to double-down on kids, in which case I think the Vita will limp on as a zombie for awhile, or they will need to make handheld gaming acceptable again.
I'm a little confused here. You point to Persona as an example of a game that underperforms on handhelds when the reality is it generally doesn't on either 3DS or Vita? You also imply the underperformance of 3DS software in western markets to be an ironic reflection as to why developers are sticking with their typical Vita support instead, but then Vita and it's software does dramatically worse in western markets across the board?

I think I get your point on demographics and no the 3DS install base isn't a guarantee for all genres and franchises (just as DS wasn't, or PSP, or PS2, or SFC, and so on) but your supporting examples seem really off target. I mean Xenoblade 3D and Persona Q were both seen to have a generally okay debut performance in NPD even, and 3DS has proven to be one of the better platforms for it's specific genre flavor (JRPGs) in western markets today. These examples really point to inverse of what you're suggesting in this case as do numerous others (SMTIV, Bravely Default, FE Awakening, Project X Zone, EOIV, Tales of the Abyss, Rune Factory 4, and so on),
 
May 10, 2015
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From the Splatoon thread, Nintendo says that Splatoon has sold 368k in Japan, doesn't say as of when thought, but assuming its including last week sales (like 40k-50k) it'd put digital to close to 20k-30k.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Well, on the topic of franchise care, looks like data-mining has found that FE:if is filled to the gills with content between all three versions. We'll have to see how the overall reception is to the game's changes and said content but Iwata seems to have been quite genuine with fans when he told them about the lengths of each game.

I, for one, cannot wait for the 5000 hour long Metroid Prime 4 set in virtual unreality, that ships with a fully functioning Varia Suit.

Varia Suit is actually the new NX, it really is an "on the go" platform/power armor.
yeah but now all the homophobes will pass on the game!...says the "concerned" people

A Y Y L M A O
 
Jan 25, 2012
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Well, on the topic of franchise care, looks like data-mining has found that FE:if is filled to the gills with content between all three versions. We'll have to see how the overall reception is to the game's changes and said content but Iwata seems to have been quite genuine with fans when he told them about the lengths of each game.

I, for one, cannot wait for the 5000 hour long Metroid Prime 4 set in virtual unreality, that ships with a fully functioning Varia Suit.

Varia Suit is actually the new NX, it really is an "on the go" platform/power armor.
I know a lot of people were doubting that so its good to see that the amount of content is as advertised.
 
Ōkami;169590302 said:
From the Splatoon thread, Nintendo says that Splatoon has sold 368k in Japan, doesn't say as of when thought, but assuming its including last week sales (like 40k-50k) it'd put digital to close to 20k-30k.
Don't know exactly what said Nintendo, but those numbers are not likely to be right.

Splatoon surely sold way far from those numbers. I think, it was posted one or two weeks ago, (don't remember very well) that is the second best selling digital game for Wii U ever.
 
On the demographic divide; I think it still exists, and I don't think it resets with each generation but brand associations positive and negative can migrate and dilute, and these have in Japan a bit. So I don't think it's as pronounced.

I think it's as strong as ever in Western markets.
Right, what I mean by "sets to zero" is that the hardware sales go back to zero, and that the perception becomes "We can try to move our audience." much more easily than you can mid generation.

For example, when the 3DS came out, Capcom put out Street Fighter, Resident Evil, and Monster Hunter on the system, pretty clearly hoping to attract their PSP audience to the platform, even if most of their rival publishers felt that the Vita was the more logical successor for their PSP series.

Now, with presumably no Vita 2 incoming, I think that there will be a lot more companies that try simply making games on PS4 (their presumed audience) and NX (their only remaining handheld option once it becomes impossible to keep shipping games on Vita).

Will this happen with things like Tales? I would guess probably not. The sales of the console games there seem to be sufficient for Namco and they've never focused on getting mainline entries on handhelds as well. I do think that it's less likely something like God Eater will simply god "Well we sold 40K copies on PS4, so this is an acceptable target for our 500-600K series." and call it a day. They're more likely to just cancel the series if they feel it's impossible to ship it on NX.

You can also just do the safe route and ship the thing on Vita/PS4/NX for a while and see where the audience shows up.

I guess another way to rephrase my position is that I feel "We have literally no other handheld option left." is a vastly more compelling argument to a publisher than "Well this platform will sell more, so even though we feel it's a worse demographic fit, we'll put the game out here." The former is a situation where the question can often become "Do we cancel the series or port it here as well?" versus "Do we accept that our cap it around 200-300K and hope for some incentive from the platform vendor?"

Now, the strongest argument against me is that frankly a lot of publishers just chose to cancel the vast majority of their series and make games for mobile instead. That could certainly happen here. I did predict there'd be less NX games at retail than there would be 3DS games alone (before we even get to Vita games), so I am assuming there's a lot of series cancellation going on here.

And yes, I'm only talking about Japan. In the West, almost no one but indies is likely to make any games for this system. There will probably be only a few kids games on the platform (LEGO, Skylanders, Infinity) and at best some mobile ports (but these are far from guaranteed, even if they're easiest to get).

Well I think Nintendo had inroads with stuff like Cut the Rope, Doodle Jump and Angry Birds(Highest selling third party game in the US?) but I don't think anything that has been relevant recently has made the jump.

I'm actually mostly interested in seeing what Nintendo will do in regards to digital/F2P. The 3DS launched without the eShop and had stuff like Steel Diver and Pokémon Rumble Blast early on as $40 games but those games sequels are F2P now.
The problem is that this isn't really the type of mobile game that is made anymore as far as relevant titles go. If they want big mobile games beyond some indie ports, they need to support full on mobile f2p and make an argument that their audience is big enough to support it.
 
Regarding Nomura expressly talking about pushing PS4s: I don't know if I've ever seen a third party executive eagerly talk about boosting hardware sales for a particular manufacturer. Is that more common than I realize? Are there examples of EA executives saying "we're really hoping to push Xboxes" or anyone ever saying "We really hope to help Nintendo push their systems?"
 
May 10, 2015
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Don't know exactly what said Nintendo, but those numbers are not likely to be right.

Splatoon surely sold way far from those numbers. I think, it was posted one or two weeks ago, (don't remember very well) that is the second best selling digital game for Wii U ever.
Here's what they said
...according to Nintendo’s internal figures. That figure includes more than 476,000 physical and digital units sold in the Americas, more than 368,000 sold in Japan, more than 230,000 sold in Europe and an additional 20,000 sold in Australia and New Zealand.
Again, they don't sey as of when, so maybe the numbers are a week or so old so Splatoon's digitals are considerably higher than what I said, or Famitsu's digital estimates are very wrong.
 
Regarding Nomura expressly talking about pushing PS4s: I don't know if I've ever seen a third party executive eagerly talk about boosting hardware sales for a particular manufacturer. Is that more common than I realize? Are there examples of EA executives saying "we're really hoping to push Xboxes" or anyone ever saying "We really hope to help Nintendo push their systems?"
In the most direct sense, I don't believe so, but EA noted that the reason why they show up to platform launches is that if no one is there to make games, then no one will buy a system.

Whenever you see statements like this, they're usually far more broad and general.

However, it's worth keeping in mind that the fundamental platforms of Western publishers aren't actually facing existential crises, and most of the Western publishers pride themselves on their ability to be on every platform (even if they lack this ability in reality), bragging that "We can weather wherever the market goes."

For Square Enix, the PS4 is the bread and butter platform to their traditional style of Japanese development, yet it's in a dire state.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Right, what I mean by "sets to zero" is that the hardware sales go back to zero, and that the perception becomes "We can try to move our audience." much more easily than you can mid generation.
My main argument against this logic is that games have a certain nature ascribed to them, such as portability or social elements, that can be lost between changing outright the target system from a handheld to a console. For example, the strengths of the MH series are in part co-operative play on the fly through internet (which a console CAN do) and on the fly co-operative play with friends in person, in the moment (which you really can't do with a console). (Much the same reason we don't see CoDs on a handheld, because those games and the like are built on spectacle and spectacle demands hardware. They are a console brand.)

Players/gamers/people also have largely disparate preferences between consoles and handhelds as, while they serve the ends of playing games, one is a huge black brick and the other is a smaller, more mobile brick.

So you're not only moving your audience across branding (and, in theory, risking losing based on brand specific offerings), you're also forcing your audience across possible preference of the physical form and mobility (or lack thereof). Given the rise of mobile, moblity seems to be much more sought after by the gaming public.
 
In the most direct sense, I don't believe so, but EA noted that the reason why they show up to platform launches is that if no one is there to make games, then no one will buy a system.

Whenever you see statements like this, they're usually far more broad and general.

However, it's worth keeping in mind that the fundamental platforms of Western publishers aren't actually facing existential crises, and most of the Western publishers pride themselves on their ability to be on every platform (even if they lack this ability in reality), bragging that "We can weather wherever the market goes."

For Square Enix, the PS4 is the bread and butter platform to their traditional style of Japanese development, yet it's in a dire state.
Are 3DS/Wii U/NX not seen as viable in Japan? Normally suggesting the Wii U is a viable alternative would be preposterous, but the Wii U has still sold 150% as much as the PS4 there.

3DS is aging, but still alive and still selling better than PS4. NX isn't out yet, but I suspect it's close enough that beginning development right now is not unreasonable if you want to heavily invest in the platform. I'm assuming Nintendo isn't hitting some particular demographic that these third parties want: which demographic is that?
 
Ōkami;169595906 said:
Here's what they said
Again, they don't sey as of when, so maybe the numbers are a week or so old so Splatoon's digitals are considerably higher than what I said, or Famitsu's digital estimates are very wrong.
Physical numbers seem very accurate since came from Nintendo.

However, I got the numbers that were posted last week. These are also from Nintendo

We know that is currently second in LTD digital charts

Wii U Digital Ranking LTD

01. Dragon Quest X: Nemureru Yuusha to Michibiki to Meiyuu Online
02. Splatoon
03. Pokemon Scramble U
04. Mario Kart 8
05. Art Academy SketchedPad
06. Famicon Remix
07. Super Mario World
08. Super Smash Bros for Wii U - (According to Famitsu estimates 43.550 digital not including download codes)
09. Super Mario 3D World
10. Pikmin 3

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/wiiu/software/ranking.html

43.550 is the very minimum, if Famitsu estimates are accurate.
 
May 23, 2013
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Regarding Nomura expressly talking about pushing PS4s: I don't know if I've ever seen a third party executive eagerly talk about boosting hardware sales for a particular manufacturer. Is that more common than I realize? Are there examples of EA executives saying "we're really hoping to push Xboxes" or anyone ever saying "We really hope to help Nintendo push their systems?"
Square and a number of publishers said this about PlayStation 3 when it launched.

Remember all those quotes Sony published + E3 2006.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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Nintendo always uses Media-Create as their source whenever discussing video games sales in Japan.

The press release supports the thesis that download sales are high (retail & digital downloads).

Never use Famitsu numbers when discussing Nintendo software sales.

It is a mistake, nothing but trash.

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
 
Mar 13, 2013
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The problem is that this isn't really the type of mobile game that is made anymore as far as relevant titles go. If they want big mobile games beyond some indie ports, they need to support full on mobile f2p and make an argument that their audience is big enough to support it.
Yeah, that's definitely true. I think they've already seen some success in Japan with F2P, especially with Denpa Men Free, but it remains to be seen if they can leverage that in the west too.

Are 3DS/Wii U/NX not seen as viable in Japan? Normally suggesting the Wii U is a viable alternative would be preposterous, but the Wii U has still sold 150% as much as the PS4 there.

3DS is aging, but still alive and still selling better than PS4. NX isn't out yet, but I suspect it's close enough that beginning development right now is not unreasonable if you want to heavily invest in the platform. I'm assuming Nintendo isn't hitting some particular demographic that these third parties want: which demographic is that?
I think there's two issues with the 3DS:

It's not powerful enough to give ideal experiences in all genres( ex Musou) and it's hard to achieve a high sales volume in the west. Square Enix is obviously trying to prop up the PS4 because it's popular in the west. I'm not sure it's a realistic goal.

Of course with the 3DS there are some demographic differences. Games like Kenka Bancho and Senran Kagura performed worse on the 3DS than PSP/Vita respectively. However when you have stuff like Hideo Baba claiming the Tales fanbase is on Vita, not 3DS, despite the 3DS releases selling better it seems like it could be a narrative publishers have constructed so they can continue just doing what they're doing.
 
May 23, 2013
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Excellent news regarding Splatoon. So good to see a new IP become successful and gain a large fan following on a global basis.

Loomks like I was wrong about digital sales, they clearly are accounting for a large portion of total sales which is surprising but makes sense when you consider the stock shortages + increased advertising around the digital version.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
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Ōkami;169590302 said:
From the Splatoon thread, Nintendo says that Splatoon has sold 368k in Japan, doesn't say as of when thought, but assuming its including last week sales (like 40k-50k) it'd put digital to close to 20k-30k.
Nintendo uses Media Create

03./01. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 53.198 / 266.929 (-23%)

Even with same sales this week with last one that puts retail sales at 320k and digital sales at 48k. Apparently retail will be lower and digital higher.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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&#332;kami;169590302 said:
From the Splatoon thread, Nintendo says that Splatoon has sold 368k in Japan, doesn't say as of when thought, but assuming its including last week sales (like 40k-50k) it'd put digital to close to 20k-30k.
Nintendo uses Media Create as a Source, and probably it includes this week's numbers.
 
Jan 17, 2013
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Are 3DS/Wii U/NX not seen as viable in Japan? Normally suggesting the Wii U is a viable alternative would be preposterous, but the Wii U has still sold 150% as much as the PS4 there.

3DS is aging, but still alive and still selling better than PS4. NX isn't out yet, but I suspect it's close enough that beginning development right now is not unreasonable if you want to heavily invest in the platform. I'm assuming Nintendo isn't hitting some particular demographic that these third parties want: which demographic is that?
Hasn't there been tensions between Square and Nintendo going back to the N64 days?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Right, what I mean by "sets to zero" is that the hardware sales go back to zero, and that the perception becomes "We can try to move our audience." much more easily than you can mid generation.

For example, when the 3DS came out, Capcom put out Street Fighter, Resident Evil, and Monster Hunter on the system, pretty clearly hoping to attract their PSP audience to the platform, even if most of their rival publishers felt that the Vita was the more logical successor for their PSP series.

Now, with presumably no Vita 2 incoming, I think that there will be a lot more companies that try simply making games on PS4 (their presumed audience) and NX (their only remaining handheld option once it becomes impossible to keep shipping games on Vita).

Will this happen with things like Tales? I would guess probably not. The sales of the console games there seem to be sufficient for Namco and they've never focused on getting mainline entries on handhelds as well. I do think that it's less likely something like God Eater will simply god "Well we sold 40K copies on PS4, so this is an acceptable target for our 500-600K series." and call it a day. They're more likely to just cancel the series if they feel it's impossible to ship it on NX.

You can also just do the safe route and ship the thing on Vita/PS4/NX for a while and see where the audience shows up.

I guess another way to rephrase my position is that I feel "We have literally no other handheld option left." is a vastly more compelling argument to a publisher than "Well this platform will sell more, so even though we feel it's a worse demographic fit, we'll put the game out here." The former is a situation where the question can often become "Do we cancel the series or port it here as well?" versus "Do we accept that our cap it around 200-300K and hope for some incentive from the platform vendor?"

Now, the strongest argument against me is that frankly a lot of publishers just chose to cancel the vast majority of their series and make games for mobile instead. That could certainly happen here. I did predict there'd be less NX games at retail than there would be 3DS games alone (before we even get to Vita games), so I am assuming there's a lot of series cancellation going on here.

And yes, I'm only talking about Japan. In the West, almost no one but indies is likely to make any games for this system. There will probably be only a few kids games on the platform (LEGO, Skylanders, Infinity) and at best some mobile ports (but these are far from guaranteed, even if they're easiest to get).



The problem is that this isn't really the type of mobile game that is made anymore as far as relevant titles go. If they want big mobile games beyond some indie ports, they need to support full on mobile f2p and make an argument that their audience is big enough to support it.
I agree that, indeed, the physical lack of a second handheld is a pretty strong argument for third parties to bring more of their "Playstation-related content" on NX. I can perfectly see the scenario where we see more titles being multi between Sony and Nintendo, due to also hardware specs allowing for much easier ports than what we can see today. And this is probably going to happen for hunting games (which rely heavily on local multiplayer, so home only is a big no-no) and bigger Japanese series with a huge focus on Japan (...a good chunk of them is already on 3DS, actually, but I'm expecting more, like more main Musou/non-chibi Persona/more anime titles). More niche series could not make the jump, especially at the beginning, since they don't need huge sales to be profitable. Maybe they'll do it in the long run, but I'm not expecting that from the get go. Especially from NIS/Compile Heart.

Also, honestly I don't believe that series with a pretty good sales potential (like God Eater) would be just killed if NX is the only option to release on in the future. It wouldn't make sense to stop working on a series that has a pretty good audience right now. Lesser known series is uncertain, but...I don't know, I don't feel the series' amount will go down that much in the future, especially considering what already happened in the traditional space.

Also, Nintendo got some successes on 3DS on the F2P front, and I'm sure they will try to get as many titles as possible, both by developing them and by allowing easy ports from mobile.