Support NeoGAF

[duckroll]

Am I mistaken or Smaurai Warriors 3 is Sengoku Basara 3 ...a Wii and PS3 game that will probably sell a lot more on the PS3?

Maybe you should not continue to discuss in this thread if you have no fucking idea what you're talking about. Seriously. That's not even the same series, and it's not even by the same publisher.

Tales of Vesperia will be down a lot compared to Tales of Destiny 2 (750K) but not so much against Tales of the Abyss and Tales of Symphonia.If you add the numbers of the 360 version of Tales of Vesperia it will end up there with Tales of the Abyss and above Tales of Symphonia.

No, I'm afraid not. It might end up somewhat close to Abyss if you COMBINE both versions, sure. But Symphonia GC and PS2 combined is over 700k.

Metal Gear Solid 4 is slowly crawling to MGS2 and 3 numbers.Yakuza 3 is above Yakuza 1 and not far from Yakuza 2.

Neither games are "crawling" anywhere. The Best version of MGS4 has been out for a while now, and that's what is selling in Japan. The original SKU is no longer moving. RgG3 Best is coming out real soon too, so that'll be the same case.


Anything else you wanna try?

 

[ethelred]

Yakuza 3 is above Yakuza 1

No, it isn't.

Yakuza			PS2	345,323
Yakuza (Best)		PS2	484,199
Yakuza (Bestest)	PS2	53,657
Yakuza 3		PS3	493,032

It's silly to act like the best price version's sales didn't count, especially when it wasn't until the best price release that Yakuza really took off and achieved the majority of its sales.

It's also silly because Yakuza 3's best price version, when/if one comes out, isn't going to do anything like this -- especially given the tight yearly release schedule Sega's got for the franchise now. Yakuza 3 best would just get tripped up by Yakuza 4.

Considering the differences in userbases the PS3 games are holding their own pretty well and most not falling a great deal.Plus we have to consider the hardcore market is in a all-time low there.For example the re-releases in the PS2 era were massive and with great legs ....now ,not so much.

An short while ago you were proclaiming that all of these PS3 games were selling on par with their PS2 iterations. Now it's "well, considering the userbase difference..." Just stop, please.

Bravo, ethelred, late with the correction and late with the joke

That's because I decided to provide all the numbers. They're more fun that way.

 

[duckroll]

I think its important to look at the appeal of the title as well. It seems like a really well made Mario.

I agree it's important to take into account appeal and how something is being marketed. But when I say it's very subjective, that's part of what I mean. You seem to feel it looks like a very well made Mario, sure, but I hated NSMB on the DS and I don't really like what I'm seeing of the Wii one either. It's also not a shoe-in that the appeal the game had on the DS for the tons of sales will immediately transfer over to the Wii. Certainly, the game will sell well on the brand alone, but for it to hit over a million (let's not even talk about 3 million yet), it will need word of mouth and legs. These are aspects which are hard to consider at this moment considering how the game isn't even out.

 

[Acosta]

I think its important to look at the appeal of the title as well. It seems like a really well made Mario.

Mario Galaxy was a "well made" Mario and still sold way less than half of NSMB. Until proven wrong I will still think that DS was the important factor there, especially as both worked combined. I don't believe on factors like "being 2D" or being "well made", it´s a Mario game, of course it´s going to be "well made".

 

[DangerousDave]

Not an expert in Japanese culture here, but could it be possible that the reason HSG5 has dropped a lot more than other games is because of its casual nature? I mean, I can see hardcore gamers paying five hundred and ninety nine dollars to play MGS4 or GT5, but I can't see someone doing the same to play HSG5.

Probably. The hardcore titles don't note the demography difference between consoles, because their fans are usually the early adopters, or make whatever it needs to play the game. That's why MGS, GT5P, Yakuza, etc, only make a little less than their precessors, even if the console userbase is 4 times less than the userbase of the previous console, when the title launched.

But this doesn't apply to casual games, because is a kind of target that usually don't buy a console for a game. That's why the difference with PES or Hot Shots is so big between this generation and the past.

 

[schuelma]

I don't believe on factors like "being 2D" or being "well made", it´s a Mario game, of course it´s going to be "well made".

You don't believe that 2D could be a factor?

 

[duckroll]

You don't believe that 2D could be a factor?

How did Super Paper Mario sell?

 

[wrowa]

I still don't get why so many people are certain that a 2D Mario will sell great on Wii and better than the previous 3D Marios, although there weren't any major 2D platformers on consoles in the last 10-15 years (except of LBP). How can we be certain if we don't have any historical data that can carry this assumption?

I'm not saying that NSMB isn't going to sell great (although I'm still skeptical whether or not NSMB Wii will meet Nintendo's expectations), but this certainty kinda puzzles me.

 

[schuelma]

How did Super Paper Mario sell?

20% better than its GC iteration?

 

[ethelred]

How did Super Paper Mario sell?

I just checked Achilles's source and it indicates that Super Paper Mario sold about on par with Mario Galaxy.

20% better than its GC iteration?

The GC iteration that was also 2D?

 

[duckroll]

I still don't get why so many people are certain that a 2D Mario will sell great on Wii and better than the previous 3D Marios, although there weren't any major 2D platformers on consoles in the last 10-15 years (except of LBP). How can we be certain if we don't have any historical data that can carry this assumption?

I'm not saying that NSMB isn't going to sell great (although I'm still skeptical whether or not NSMB Wii will meet Nintendo's expectations), but this certainty kinda puzzles me.

I think some people just WANT it to do well. Honestly if we look at the statistics, there's nothing which indicates any factors of this being massively more successful than any previous Mario on the Wii. 2D is certainly not an amazing factor by any stretch of the imagination, otherwise Super Paper Mario and Wario World Shake It would have done much better than they did.

 

[schuelma]

The GC iteration that was also 2D?

Yeah I know.

 

[DangerousDave]

I think some people just WANT it to do well. Honestly if we look at the statistics, there's nothing which indicates any factors of this being massively more successful than any previous Mario on the Wii. 2D is certainly not an amazing factor by any stretch of the imagination, otherwise Super Paper Mario and Wario World Shake It would have done much better than they did.

This.

Also, I'm sure that the game will sell well, with enough time (months or even years). Is a kind of game that can have monstruous legs, like Mario Kart. But I don't see people jumping to the Wii (if they didn't do it already with the price drop, Mario Galaxy, Mario Kart, etc) only for this game (all this started about what game could bump more hardware). But I see more people jumping to PS3 only for FF XII.

 

[schuelma]

I think some people just WANT it to do well. Honestly if we look at the statistics, there's nothing which indicates any factors of this being massively more successful than any previous Mario on the Wii. 2D is certainly not an amazing factor by any stretch of the imagination, otherwise Super Paper Mario and Wario World Shake It would have done much better than they did.

Fair point. I do think its a wildcard, but I suspect a pure Mario platformer holds more appeal than the 3D games do. I also believe that the 4 player local multiplayer could be a major selling point.

 

[donny2112]

You don't believe that 2D could be a factor?

The fact that it's 2-D won't be the biggest factor. It's the fact that it's New Super Mario Bros. Wii that will be the biggest factor. Again, Super Mario Galaxy's sales started rebounding when Nintendo started directly comparing it to New Super Mario Bros. in commercials in Japan. It obviously made some difference in that case.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Who was that Spanish PSP viral that used to post in the M-C threads? I just can't quite remember...

 

[Acosta]

You don't believe that 2D could be a factor?

At this moment? No, I don't find any objective reason of it and going to Famicom days to make a point about it don't convince me (2D was not an option in Super Mario Bros days).

Note I said: "until proven wrong", so it´s not like I'm playing Nostradamus here or saying what will happen 100% sure, just sharing how I feel it at this moment. BTW I'm 100% agree with Duckroll, he has said it much better than I could.

 

[duckroll]

Fair point. I do think its a wildcard, but I suspect a pure Mario platformer holds more appeal than the 3D games do. I also believe that the 4 player local multiplayer could be a major selling point.

I'm not disputing that it could certainly have more casual appeal and be a bigger hit than Galaxy. I'm just saying, based on what we have now I just don't think we can realistically say that it is a lock, or that it is very obviously going to achieve that.

 

[schuelma]

I'm not disputing that it could certainly have more casual appeal and be a bigger hit than Galaxy. I'm just saying, based on what we have now I just don't think we can realistically say that it is a lock, or that it is very obviously going to achieve that.

I think doing better than Galaxy is very likely- I really think the multiplayer will appeal to a lot more people than SMG's single player focus, but yeah anything beyond for me is just guesswork.

 

[Olaeh]

Why would it, I do not think the Tales fanbase and the FF fanbase would hurt each other.

There might be some overlap though.

Both are JRPGs and FFXIII comes out the week after Graces. I can't help but think that overlap will be significant. Maybe it would only sell an extra 75k if there was no FFXIII. Still, one week doesn't give it much room at all.

Why would SW3 in anyway be hurt by NSMB? If anything it will be helped by more people picking up additional Wii games alongside NSMB

You may be right, but it's two major releases for the same platform on the same day. People who would otherwise pick up both might end up choosing between the two. SW3 could get lost in the Mario hype.
The again, this is going into the holiday season and they are totally different genres, so maybe they'll just sell regardless

The SW3 release date kind of confuses me..there was open room before and after NSMB Wii but they chose the same day. Maybe they think increased traffic will help? I don't have very high expectations for SW3..maybe 200K?

Yikes, 200k seems pretty low. I wonder how many console bundles and controller bundles they're gonna ship?

 

[schuelma]

Yikes, 200k seems pretty low. I wonder how many console bundles and controller bundles they're gonna ship?

Just my own little guess..just doesn't seem to be much excitement.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I had an argument before with donny2112 about combining releases, or comparing main games and spinoffs. Below is a more rigorous version of what ethelred has done, with only like-for-like, and only initial releases.

It's clear that we should expect PS3 games in general to do much worse than PS2 iterations. But rather than try to explain away the rare successes, I think it would be a better exercise to simply explain them. What did Yakuza 3 and SC IV do that Dynasty Warriors 6 didn't, and could that be applied to FF XIII?

DMC3: 281k
DMC4: 310k
110%

RE 4: 455k
RE 5: 472k
103.7%

SC III: 126k
SC IV: 120k
95.2%

Yakuza 2: 573k
Yakuza 3: 490k
85.5%

MGS 3: 820k
MGS 4: 686k
83.7%

Disgaea 2: 150k
Disgaea 3: 92k
61.3%

TotA: 556k
ToV: 292k
52.5%

Genji: 126k
Genji: DotB: 54k
42.9%

DW 5: 918k
DW 6: 371k
40.4%

HSG4: 1.1m
HSG5: 410k
37.3%

GT4P: 748k
GT5P: 238k*
31.8%

VF 4: 542k
VF 5: 97k
17.9%

Ratchet: 233k
R&CF: TOD 40k
17.2%

*This misses some number of downloads, but we can't tell how many.
GT5P in general has about 150k in downloads, but we don't know of
which versions, so I didn't try to estimate.

 

[schuelma]

One thing about FF13 is that with how high FF12 was, only a small decline percentage wise can mean a loss of hundreds of thousands of units.

Just for example- let's say there was a 20% decline, which seems pretty reasonable given what other franchises have done. For a PS2 game that did 500K, that would mean 400K for its PS3 iteration. Not great, but probably not a disaster. Apply that 20% to FF13 and you're talking a drop of over 450K.

 

[achilles140]

No, it isn't.

Yakuza			PS2	345,323
Yakuza (Best)		PS2	484,199
Yakuza (Bestest)	PS2	53,657
Yakuza 3		PS3	493,032

It's silly to act like the best price version's sales didn't count, especially when it wasn't until the best price release that Yakuza really took off and achieved the majority of its sales.

It's also silly because Yakuza 3's best price version, when/if one comes out, isn't going to do anything like this -- especially given the tight yearly release schedule Sega's got for the franchise now. Yakuza 3 best would just get tripped up by Yakuza 4.



An short while ago you were proclaiming that all of these PS3 games were selling on par with their PS2 iterations. Now it's "well, considering the userbase difference..." Just stop, please.




That's because I decided to provide all the numbers. They're more fun that way.

Its the same as pretending you cant add GT5 Prologue Mark III of The Best editions to the numbers of their original SKU just because its not the same SKU.

One more thing ,if you are using this as source :

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/

You should look a bit more to the numbers.First ,it isnt up-to date....(see that TOV in PS3 at 227K when both MC and Famitsu have it at 292K?).Second ,it has many launch date wrong (see that MGS4 released in 2007?) so I wouldnt put my hand on the fire about the numbers.Three ,I wouldnt be too sure about the tracking of old games ...I think thy just add the Top30 of MC or Famitsu and thats all...sure it gives a good look at sales but its not the be-all end-all of the databases.For example we have seen the The Best editions of Uncharted in the Top30-50 these last weeks yet the database only adds Uncharted The Best to 4k units.Or the HSG the Best edition ,that has been appearing in the Top30 from time to time for two years now and it just cant be found in the database.

 

[duckroll]

One more thing ,if you are using this as source :

Please. Stop. You're being more and more retarded with each new post.

 

[Sage00]

Its the same as pretending you cant add GT5 Prologue Mark III of The Best editions to the numbers of their original SKU just because its not the same SKU.

That's completely different. It was a bundle.

 

[Olaeh]

achilles140
Banned
(Today, 03:47 PM)
Reply | Quote

o.o

 

[ethelred]

Its the same as pretending you cant add GT5 Prologue Mark III of The Best editions to the numbers of their original SKU just because its not the same SKU.

Sure, sure. They're not the same SKU. But when you sit there and confidently proclaim "Yakuza 3 is ahead of Yakuza 1," it just makes you look ridiculously dumb (not that you weren't accomplishing that perfectly well prior to that point with your string of PS3=PS2 near misses) because it's a form of analysis totally devoid of nuance and understanding. Sometimes you have to look deeper than the numbers. Yakuza 1 didn't sell all that well in the beginning, until a best price version was released. Well over 50% of its sales have come from that version because it wasn't until Sega rereleased it, readvertised it, and scored a big word-of-mouth win that the game became a big success and paved the way for all of the future Yakuza games (perhaps none of which would exist right now if not for that rerelease). You can compare the original release version of the third entry in the series (one which may not have a best price rerelease at all, or if it does will have one markedly decreased in sales) and the first game in the series prior to it becoming well known and established... but what does that get you? In no real sense whatsoever has Yakuza 3 sold more than Yakuza 1, and to suggest otherwise is mere wordplay riding on misused numbers.

One more thing ,if you are using this as source :

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/

You should look a bit more to the numbers.First ,it isnt up-to date....(see that TOV in PS3 at 227K when both MC and Famitsu have it at 292K?).Second ,it has many launch date wrong (see that MGS4 released in 2007?) so I wouldnt put my hand on the fire about the numbers.Three ,I wouldnt be too sure about the tracking of old games ...I think thy just add the Top30 of MC or Famitsu and thats all...sure it gives a good look at sales but its not the be-all end-all of the databases.For example we have seen the The Best editions of Uncharted in the Top30-50 these last weeks yet the database only adds Uncharted The Best to 4k units.Or the HSG the Best edition ,that has been appearing in the Top30 from time to time for two years now and it just cant be found in the database.

Then I guess it's a good thing that site isn't my source, isn't it?

Sorry you had to type all that spin up for nothing. Aw, and it got you banned, too, didn't it?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Please. Stop. You're being more and more retarded with each new post.

Oh the name is on the tip of my tongue! But it's the same shit. I'd remember that stench anywhere...

 

[gerg]

This holiday will be really interesting. I have hope for NSMB Wii to do some magic for the Wii, but we'll see. As much as software-driven purchases might spell good fortunes for the Wii over the holiday period, Nintendo's reserved nature about the period following that also spells concern. Otherwise, it's good to see Nintendo pushing third-party software both with hardware bundles and CC Pro bundles.

It's a shame that the extent of debate is limited, however. It makes coming into MC threads ever so slightly predictable.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Oh the name is on the tip of my tongue! But it's the same shit. I'd remember that stench anywhere...

The posts almost feel like tormentoso, but not exactly.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

The posts almost feel like tormentoso, but not exactly.

It's not Izzy...

This is going to bother me the entire weekend.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How about SW3? Will SMBWii cut down it's potential too?

If anything's going to harm SW3, I think it's that PSP, X360, and PS3 have already established themselves as the Musou systems with at least 5 games each.

So, MH3 is not a failure, because we can't expect that a console game sells the same as a portable game (even if the portable game is a re-release of a game of 4 years ago and the console one is a completly new game).

But NSMB-Wii will sell the same as NSMB DS.

Something doesn't compute, here...

Monster Hunter exploded on portables thanks to the inherent advantages, then was able to bring some of the newfound fame home to make Monster Hunter 3 the best-selling console game in the series. 2D Mario was a multi-million seller before the portable segment of the market even existed. It's not a followup to a line of 500K-selling home games.

This is NOT including Tales of. ToV will be lucky to sell 50% of its 2002 high.

Tales of is hard to make a simple percentage from, because the PS2 games did vary quite a bit. Even PS2 only got within 100K of its first Tales one more time.

Now I feel dumb, didn't have my contacts in and misread FFXII as FFXIII, but still if you ARE a time traveler, let us know please.

Better than that; I'll let you knew.

Are you sure those GT4P numbers are right? PD has it at 790k and GT5P at 690k, so the numbers you provided would mean that it sold more than shipment figures from PD.

The number you quoted as "GT4P (Best)" looks to actually be the Best of the full version of GT4. By the way, that looks to be the number through 2007; after 2008 it's up to 143,714.

 

[charlequin]

I still don't get why so many people are certain that a 2D Mario will sell great on Wii and better than the previous 3D Marios, although there weren't any major 2D platformers on consoles in the last 10-15 years (except of LBP).

Well, as a really big #1 reason, I don't believe there's a magical split between handhelds and consoles such that a game which has no specifically handheld-suited qualities (i.e. NSMB) is somehow going to be uninteresting on a console despite being ludicrously huge on a handheld.

I think by far the biggest compelling factor for NSMB's sales was its presence as a real, honest-to-goodness Super Mario Bros. game. I don't think "2D vs. 3D" is an issue in the sense that people want "2D games," but rather in the sense that I think people still see the post-Ocarina iterations of Zelda as "Zelda games" but the 3D Mario titles as something different -- same lead character, but completely different gameplay, tropes, game structure, etc.

Given that, I don't see any reason why NSMBW wouldn't trip the same "real Mario game" switches as the DS iteration, or why it would make sense to expect an 80% (or whatever) title-over-title sales decline from its predecessor.

 

[Olaeh]

Just my own little guess..just doesn't seem to be much excitement.

I wonder if Nintendo is going to really push this one by helping with the marketing ala MH3? I was under that assumption, what with Miyamoto up on stage for the game, and with the multiple bundles. Its too early to see if they're going to give it a big marketing push, but JGAF can keep us posted when(if) the marketing really gets going.

If anything's going to harm SW3, I think it's that PSP, X360, and PS3 have already established themselves as the Musou systems with at least 5 games each.

Glad to hear people don't think Mario will harm SW3, I hope it won't. As for the musou fanbase being on other systems; Maybe with the knowledge of SB3 coming to Wii Japan will be more receptive? It's a long shot, I know. I want to say the PS3 version of SB3 will dominate the Wii version, but if SW3 can pull enough musou fans in maybe it will be more even.

 

[gerg]

As chalequin suggests, the supposed appeal (and subsequent success) of NSMB has everything to do with its accessibility. SMG is no less of a "real" Mario game than NSMB Wii. Rather, 3D platforming games appear to be less accessible than 2D platforming games. Such a distinction (between 2D and 3D titles) may be less apparent with the Zelda series because of the thematic qualities of those titles, and also because of the fact that 2D Zelda may have been less accessible than 2D Mario was. These accessible attributes do not seem to be dependent upon a handheld release.

 

[hatchx]

Well, as a really big #1 reason, I don't believe there's a magical split between handhelds and consoles such that a game which has no specifically handheld-suited qualities (i.e. NSMB) is somehow going to be uninteresting on a console despite being ludicrously huge on a handheld.

They just need one commercial with the family playing it.

Everyone and their mother is going to buy NSMBwii. Sure, I'm an avid gamer, I'm upset this DS clone is Nintendo's flagship holiday title (pathetic in my opinion), and I don't think it will help push the sales of wii whatsoever.....but I'm going to buy it on day 1 and have a great time playing with friends!


Also, a few pages back people thought I was ludicrous for suggesting Red Steel 2 will sell a million units in North America. I don't feel that's a crazy estimation at all. Gamers in NA are starved for a AAA westernized game on wii, not to mention one with fantastic visuals, packed-in M+, and a gameplay mechanic every gamer has wanted since they were kids. Red Steel 2 is a pioneer of its day, and will chart new territory for the future of motion controlled sword-fighting games.

 

[ethelred]

They just need one commercial with the family playing it.
Everyone and their mother is going to buy NSMBwii.

Commercials showing the family playing together will definitely entice some people into purchases... but their mother won't need to, because the whole family will only need 1 copy in total.

I can't help but think this is a miscalculation on Nintendo's part. One of the things that really helps this particular type of multiplayer focused game sell well on portable systems in Japan is that everyone goes out and buys their own copy. When you centralize the game onto a single television screen that everyone shares, everyone's going to share the game, too, and that puts much more of a cap on the sales potential.

Being 2D will certainly help it, because I think that is definitely much more accessible and (more importantly) familiar when it comes to the Mario games. But I don't think it's going to do as well as some people are expecting. I don't think it'll go past 2 million, personally -- or if it does, it won't be by much.

Sure, I'm an avid gamer, I'm upset this DS clone is Nintendo's flagship holiday title (pathetic in my opinion), and I don't think it will help push the sales of wii whatsoever.....but I'm going to buy it on day 1 and have a great time playing with friends!

There are a lot of avid gamers who are going to share that assessment but are, in turn, not going to rush out and buy the game. There are also going to be people less interested in it, or less invested in the idea that it's a real true new Mario Bros. game the way NSMB was viewed, because of the multiplayer focus.

Also, a few pages back people thought I was ludicrous for suggesting Red Steel 2 will sell a million units in North America. I don't feel that's a crazy estimation at all.

Red Steel 1 did not come close to selling 1 million in America, and it had the advantage of being brand new (so people didn't yet have the opportunity to associated the words "Red Steel" with "low quality") and the greater advantage of being a launch title. So I don't really see why its sequel is going to do what the original couldn't.

Gamers in NA are starved for a AAA westernized game on wii...

Are they? This argument gets trotted out so often, typically preceding the launch of games like MadWorld or The Conduit that then go off to do rather poorly. The evidence that Wii gamers in North America are starving for AAA games is wearing kinda thin...

 

[Stumpokapow]

Are they? This argument gets trotted out so often, typically preceding the launch of games like MadWorld or The Conduit that then go off to do rather poorly. The evidence that Wii gamers in North America are starving for AAA games is wearing kinda thin...

... I don't think that's necessarily the reading.

You could also read it as meaning that Wii-only hardcore-type gamers in North America are starving for AAA games, but there's only a few hundred thousand of them

 

[ethelred]

... I don't think that's necessarily the reading.

You could also read it as meaning that Wii-only hardcore-type gamers in North America are starving for AAA games, but there's only a few hundred thousand of them

Fair enough!

 

[schuelma]

I can't help but think this is a miscalculation on Nintendo's part.

Curious as to what you mean- a miscalculation as to there being something Nintendo could be doing to promote purchases by everyone in the family, or a miscalculation as to Nintendo having such insanely high expectations in the first place (10m ww by March).

 

[Acosta]

Commercials showing the family playing together will definitely entice some people into purchases... but their mother won't need to, because the whole family will only need 1 copy in total.

I can't help but think this is a miscalculation on Nintendo's part. One of the things that really helps this particular type of multiplayer focused game sell well on portable systems in Japan is that everyone goes out and buys their own copy. When you centralize the game onto a single television screen that everyone shares, everyone's going to share the game, too, and that puts much more of a cap on the sales potential.

Being 2D will certainly help it, because I think that is definitely much more accessible and (more importantly) familiar when it comes to the Mario games. But I don't think it's going to do as well as some people are expecting. I don't think it'll go past 2 million, personally -- or if it does, it won't be by much.

Good analysis. The angle of being cap limited for being a shareable experience it´s a really good one (opposite to Pokemon, Monster Hunter... where everyone play together but they play with their copy).

 

[schuelma]

Good analysis. The angle of being cap limited for being a shareable experience it´s a really good one (opposite to Pokemon, Monster Hunter... where everyone play together but they play with their copy).

It is a very good point. On the other hand, I don't think the cap is all that low- you have a similar game at least in theory still in the top 30 every week and above 2.3 million (MK Wii).

 

[ethelred]

Curious as to what you mean- a miscalculation as to there being something Nintendo could be doing to promote purchases by everyone in the family, or a miscalculation as to Nintendo having such insanely high expectations in the first place (10m ww by March).

Ah. I thought I stated that. Essentially, my point is this: a platformer built entirely around the concept of becoming a cooperative experience is a savvy idea, and one that seems like it could be a great success. But I think it's on the wrong system to truly be that kind of success. I think this is the kind of game that would perform (in Japan, at least) much, much, much more strongly on a portable system -- like Mario Kart DS's outperformance of Mario Kart Wii, or the outperformance of any portable iteration of Monster Hunter against any home console version. Each person having their own copy of the game, and the ability to bring that co-op experience anywhere, can really fuel sales well beyond what would be achievable, I think, when you're talking about a shared copy of the game that will be played when everyone gathers together at home.

In short, I think the NSMB Wii that Nintendo designed would've been a much bigger success as a DS game. In fact, I think a NSMB2 that brought these things to the table and launched on the back of the DS original's total ubiquity in Japan would've been massive.

... obviously, though, Nintendo didn't make this as a DS game because the value of having an enormously strong selling piece of software mattered less to them than the value of having a "killer app" piece of software that would help spark flagging hardware sales. But I think that if that's the case, they made a miscalculation, because they designed for the Wii a game that would have been better designed for the DS, and if moving hardware was their top goal, they could have designed a significantly better piece of software -- not better in terms of total objective quality (as this isn't something we're in a position to judge right now), but better in the sense of "better able to achieve the goal of moving hardware."

Is NSMB Wii really the best and most effective way to design a hardware-moving Mario game for the Wii? I'm not so sure that it is. Everyone mentions that it's 2D, and as I said, I think that'll help for the accessibility and familiarity. But couldn't Nintendo have still designed a Mario game that kept the 2D nature but in other respects was better matched towards the Wii's design strengths? In visuals, in overall presentation, in utilization of the remote, in central concept?

This is all strictly about Japan, by the way. I think North America's a different matter entirely, and there the biggest hurdle is going to be that while console-based multiplayer is very successful, there's a huge expectation for online play, and Nintendo's failing big time by not providing that.

You know, the word "huge" is thrown around a lot when talking about NSMB Wii, but I was wondering, does anyone have a numerical prediction for how the game will do?

I think there'd be less arguing over it if we were stating direct numbers as opposed to concepts such as "huge" where to one person it might mean 1.5 million ad to another it might mean 5 million.

Well, I already stated that I think it'll sell about 2 million, probably, but it won't go much beyond that if it reaches that point. I think the game will sell strongly up to around 1.5 million and by then will have dropped to more negligible numbers where it'll proceed to sell week after week, crawling towards that 2 million goal.

That doesn't make the game a failure. It'll still be a really strong piece of software. But I don't think it's going to be the kind of game that reignites hardware sales; I don't think it's going to see what I would consider huge success.

Its also going to be REALLY weird if the name "New Super Mario Bros" (the name of one of the best selling mario games of all time) doesnt sell atleast 2 million copies guaranteed.

Do people think there's anything particularly successful about the name New Super Mario Bros.? It's a very old name with the word "new" tacked on front. That's not particularly special. That's not any guarantor of sales. That's not going to prompt people to go buy the game anymore than the word "Mario" by itself would. New Super Mario Bros. succeeded to the insane level that it has for reasons going deeper than its name -- reasons that will make or break the Wii game's own success.

 

[Nirolak]

You know, the word "huge" is thrown around a lot when talking about NSMB Wii, but I was wondering, does anyone have a numerical prediction for how the game will do?

I think there'd be less arguing over it if we were stating direct numbers as opposed to concepts such as "huge" where to one person it might mean 1.5 million ad to another it might mean 5 million.

 

[jrricky]

Did achilles get ban because of this thread? Was this the first MC thread for him?

Its also going to be REALLY weird if the name "New Super Mario Bros" (the name of one of the best selling mario games of all time) doesnt sell atleast 2 million copies guaranteed.

This is the one and single reason I think Nintendo named it the way they did and they are going to push this game like no tomorrow...

 

[schuelma]

Ah. I thought I stated that. Essentially, my point is this: a platformer built entirely around the concept of becoming a cooperative experience is a savvy idea, and one that seems like it could be a great success. But I think it's on the wrong system to truly be that kind of success. I think this is the kind of game that would perform (in Japan, at least) much, much, much more strongly on a portable system -- like Mario Kart DS's outperformance of Mario Kart Wii, or the outperformance of any portable iteration of Monster Hunter against any home console version.

Got it. My only point in response is that I believe MK Wii is still trending ahead of MK DS.

 

[ethelred]

Got it. My only point in response is that I believe MK Wii is still trending ahead of MK DS.

Yeah, and it very well may move ahead of the DS game. Then again, on consoles Mario Kart has long been stronger than Mario platformers... and Mario Kart Wii has been a good seller, but while it continues to sell even now, the Wii continues to sink.

 

[markatisu]

... I don't think that's necessarily the reading.

You could also read it as meaning that Wii-only hardcore-type gamers in North America are starving for AAA games, but there's only a few hundred thousand of them

I also would not trot out The Conduit and MadWorld as AAA games (core games yes, AAA games no)

MH3 is a AAA game, Resident Evil Darkside Chronicles could be perceived as a AAA game, Tales of Graces is a AAA game

I think Red Steel 2 could do 1m ww with some ease given its M+ bundles and promotion by Ubisoft, that is if the gameplay does not stink like some on GAF are saying in their demo plays. It will be a bit of a sell in the US though, in its original release date of Nov-Dec 2009 I think it would have cleaned up. Delaying it to the Spring won't give it the holiday

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Got it. My only point in response is that I believe MK Wii is still trending ahead of MK DS.

Yeah. It's probably going to fall behind, but it's not nearly as good an example as Monster Hunter.

Then again, on consoles Mario Kart has long been stronger than Mario platformers...

That's the case comparing Mario Kart Wii to Super Mario Galaxy, but they were pretty even in Japan the previous two generations.

MK64: 1.71 million
SM64: 1.64 million

MKDD: 0.83 million
SMS: 0.79 million