Media Create Sales: September 13-19

jman2050 said:
DS/PSP forum wars were still the most brutal. Wii/PS3/360 is so pedestrian by comparison.
I agree. And with the way things are going with the 3DS launching without any competition at all, we will probably never have a war like the DS/PSP days ever again.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
No way. I'm disputing the notion that the handheld and home console market segments have merged, which is an assumption that everyone seems to be making.
I'm really not sure what evidence there is for them being separate markets, though. Let's go over some factors that seem to be necessary to have two products compete in the same market.

  • Their sales respond to one another. On the most basic measure, this seems to be accurate because Japanese consumers have been replacing their expenditure on home consoles with expenditure on handhelds (rather than expanding both).
  • Secondary market actors treat them as exchangeable alternatives. In previous generations, the handheld market and console market were treated by developers as meaningfully distinct -- each was targeted to serve a different demographic and franchises either took a sidecar approach ("real" games on console with spinoffs on handheld) or an either/or approach (picking which of the two fit their demographic best and sticking with it forever.) This generation we've seen dramatically increased osmosis between the two handheld platforms and the three home consoles, with series that move full-on entries from one to the other (VC, DQ), series that have their "real" entries on handhelds while less important entries are on consoles (MH), etc. There's no thin line nominally separating the two.
  • They are substitutionary goods for one another. It seems pretty straightforward that this is true in a meaningful fashion this generation. Very much unlike the GBA (which had a library of good games but never reached a point of standing effectively on its own), both the DS and PSP have the strength and depth of library to stand alone as full-on replacements of home consoles -- and our sales figures (and anecdotal evidence suggest that there are likely many people who are using them in exactly that fashion.

In the West, I think this would be much more arguable (and I'd probably still consider the two as separate markets there.) But in Japan it seems straightforwardly true.
 
jman2050 said:
DS/PSP forum wars were still the most brutal. Wii/PS3/360 is so pedestrian by comparison.
Having just two competitors with such distinct yet equivalently strong resources to bring to bear on the fight was really the key, I think. With the PS3/Wii/360 the shifting alliances and fact that someone's usually performing in the middle make it less exciting than the sheer, full-on insanity that follows a major turnover in a straight head-to-head competition.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
There is the possibility (very good one) Famitsu reports Black/White second week sales from Monday. They did it when Dragon Quest IX (after 3 weeks) and NSMBW (after 7 weeks) crossed the 3 million mark.

We must have predictions for next week too. Many good sellers.
 
Chris1964 said:
There is the possibility (very good one) Famitsu reports Black/White second week sales from Monday. They did it when Dragon Quest IX (after 3 weeks) and NSMBW (after 7 weeks) crossed the 3 million mark.

We must have predictions for next week too. Many good sellers.
That's interesting. Thanks for pointing it out.
 
I think pretty much everything will end up selling 50-60k next week. Not seeing any huge sellers honestly. K-On is probably the only one which has a really mild chance of getting close to 100k in sales.
 
duckroll said:
I think pretty much everything will end up selling 50-60k next week. Not seeing any huge sellers honestly. K-On is probably the only one which has a really mild chance of getting close to 100k in sales.
K-ON is a weird case. The game has more points on comgnet now than Project Diva 2 had at launch.

And both games look pretty similar to me, rythm games appealing to the same anime/otaku crowd.

There must be some nice preorder bonus or something.
 
BishopLamont said:
Why is the comparison between the PS2's fifth year and the PS3's 3 years and 10 months?
Smaller pie and in comparison to the actual market leader.

Charlequin, I'll deal with your points a little later with an overwrought analogy that has both landline phones and home phones in it - a market where two different products fulfill much the same need but where the instances of direct substitution are far outweighed by the segment who see them as complementary products.

That is, unless I come around to your point of view or if I forget.
 
duckroll said:
That would be a very serious mistake to make.
Well, I have not been following the anime scene in the last years outside of four of five series but seeing videos on youtube both games look similar to me. It's standard rythm based gameplay and customization.

I guess Project Diva appeals to people who likes that Vocaloid thing and K-On to people who liked the anime.
 
Spiegel said:
Well, I have not been following the anime scene in the last years outside of four of five series but seeing videos on youtube both games look similar to me. It's standard rythm based gameplay and customization.

I guess Project Diva appeals to people who likes that Vocaloid thing and K-On to people who liked the anime.
The main difference is that Project Diva is very successful because it extends far beyond just being an "otaku" game. It's a legit music game with very strong software features. You can use your own songs (ripped mp3s), and create and edit vocaloid voice + movement routines within the game which then generates itself as play content which can be shared with others. There's a huge amount of user content and sharing going on with the title, as well as DLC adding more official songs a lot Rock Band, etc. Project Diva 2 exploded because the word of mouth and community support for the original title really exploded.

K-On is just a licensed game of a pretty popular anime series, in the form of a rhythm game, using songs from the show (it's about a school band). There is virtually zero cross-over with what made Project Diva successful other than "oh, looks animu". It's important to note why Project Diva had such strong word of mouth. It's because it's a complete software suite with tons of user support, and not just a mere game.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
If Black/White has a second week close to 1 million I'll go crazy and say that it will outsell Super Mario Bros. eventually.

Any information for its stock situation?
 
Chris1964 said:
We must have predictions for next week too. Many good sellers.
Yep. Thinking about a 6-pack: Okamiden, K-On, Zero no Kiseki, DBZ and both Dead Rising 2.

Chris1964 said:
Updated list for potential important 2010 releases
Some thoughts about this...its so suspiciously empty of the traditional throw-everything-you-have day. Its kinda asking for Dec 4th to be 3DS launch.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
The PS3 resurgence post the Slim and a price drop actually shows that the insane Sony fanboys at the start of the generation may have been right. People in Japan actually were waiting in the wings to jump into the jacuzzi with Sony's new console..
They were right because they weren't insane;going against the PlayStation sisters,the Wii never had a chance to garner meaningful third party support.



To make things worse,PS3 had secured key franchises before the generation came to play.Of course,Nintendo didn't have unlimited resources thus Wii saw a sudden collapse in early 2009.



An affordable PS3 was the missing piece…



viciouskillersquirrel said:
What's more, I'm becoming convinced that had Krazy Kaptain Ken Kutaragi not pulled a Spruce Goose on the triple, the PS3 would have won this generation in Japan. Not won it with the same force as its predecessor, obviously but it would have outlasted the Wii thanks to third party support.
Industry insiders have no doubt that the PS3 will outlast the Wii by five years thanks to third party support.They've seen this before,they know what to do.



In 1996,PlayStation games cost less than $1 million to make. Today, development costs for a typical PS3 or Xbox 360 game run anywhere from $20 million to $25 million.Of course,pricing has not come down as much as third parties would have expected,but software sales are rising,so PS3 is here to stay.

Remember: PS3 sales are rising;PS2 sales were declining. At ¥19,980 the PSThree won't be stopped.
KingDizzi said:
3 games I give a toss about doing well this year, one (well technically two) released this week and no shock the numbers are immense. MHP3G is next, 70 or so days left to release and already almost 2000k comgnet points so again that game will do massive numbers. Then there is GT5.........hope through some miracle that does 1 million lifetime. :/
Comgnet is useful… once you understand how to use it.





 
If Nintendo wants the Wii the last longer they would have already insured that more software would be coming by at least next year. I say this because they would have known support for this year would be lower last year. At least you would think the platform holder would know when games are not coming. If Sony could get software on the PSP Nintendo can get software on the Wii if they wanted to.

Nintendo has the money and resources to do it. There are only 3 reasons I can think of that would explain why the Wii would not get more support. One is that they (Nintendo) foolishly think they can carry the console without third parties. The second is that third parties wont support the Wii no matter how much money Nintendo throws at them. The third is Nintendo does not care because they will replace the Wii soon.
 
Dengeki Sales, Sep 13 - 19, 2010:

01 / 00 [NDS] Pokemon Black (Pokemon) - 1,321,015 / 1,321,015
02 / 00 [NDS] Pokemon White (Pokemon) - 1,267,992 / 1,267,992
03 / 00 [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 5 (Konami) - 50,355 / 50,355
04 / 00 [PS3] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix) - 46,465 / 46,465
05 / 00 [360] Halo: Reach (Microsoft) - 37,508 / 37,508
06 / 03 [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 35,759 / 988,063
07 / 01 [NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle! (Bandai Namco) - 30,611 / 164,578
08 / 02 [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village (Capcom) - 28,658 / 469,590
09 / 00 [PSP] Blue Roses: Yousei to Aoi Hitomi no Sensitachi (Nippon Ichi) - 10,606 / 10,606
10 / 10 [NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Yokai Daikessen!! (Bandai Namco) - 9,055 / 223,419
11 / 08 [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (PSP the Best Reprint) (Capcom) - 8,376 / 448,093
12 / 06 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 7,612 / 840,042
13 / 00 [360] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix) - 7,310 / 7,310
14 / 04 [PSP] Ace Combat X2: Joint Assault (Bandai Namco) - 6,995 / 104,789
15 / 09 [NDS] Art Academy DS (Nintendo) - 6,367 / 188,669
16 / 12 [PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 [reprint] (Square Enix) - 5,867 / 22,347
17 / 00 [PSP] Trick x Logic: Season 2 (SCE) - 5,451 / 5,451
18 / 18 [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 5,324 / ?
19 / 15 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Bomber (Level 5) - 5,174 / 404,916
20 / 14 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Spark (Level 5) - 5,063 / 469,573



Other software (first week / LTD):
2006-09 [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon) - 1,617,000 / 6,000,000



Notes:
1) Sell-through
- [NDS] Pokemon Black / White ~90%

2) Total software this week: 3.236 million (4.9x last week).



Code:
Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
NDS      |     86,935 |     40,535 |  1,879,784 | 30,847,591
PSP      |     31,770 |     32,382 |  1,592,112 | 15,000,449
PS3      |     17,910 |     18,110 |  1,132,257 |  5,619,538
WII      |     13,935 |     14,699 |  1,165,598 | 10,711,408
360      |     	4,360 |      2,096 |    187,295 |  1,396,183
PS2      |     	1,375 |      1,316 |     	| 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    156,285 |    109,138 |
http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/305/305037/
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/557/557302/

Sep 06 - 12
Aug 30 - Sep 05
Aug 23 - 29
Aug 16 - 22
Aug 09 - 15
Aug 02 - 08
Jul 26 - Aug 01
Jul 19 - 25
Jul 12 - 18
Jul 05 - 11
Jun 28 - Jul 04
Jun 21 - 27
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
21. / 22. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
22. / 05. [WII] Metroid: Other M (Nintendo)
23. / 28. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
24. / 23. [PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 (Sega)
25. / 25. [NDS] Harvest Moon: Twin Villages (Marvelous Entertainment)
26. / 15. [PSP] Bleach: Heat the Soul 7 (SCE)
27. / 33. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.)
28. / 16. [PS3] UFC 2010 Undisputed (Yuke's)
29. / 19. [PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom)
30. / 20. [WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom)
31. / 30. [NDS] Tetris Party Deluxe (Hudson)
32. / 32. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami)
33. / 24. [WII] Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory (Square Enix)
34. / 27. [NDS] Fire Emblem: New Mystery of the Emblem - Hero of Light and Shadow (Nintendo)
35. / 42. [NDS] Heart Catch PreCure! Oshare Collection (Bandai Namco)
36. / 21. [PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (Konami)
37. / 10. [PSP] Sengoku Efuda Yuugi: Hototogisu Tairan (Irem)
38. / 50. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (Capcom)
39. / 41. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Pichi Pichi Omisecchi (Bandai Namco)
40. / 35. [PSP] Sengoku Basara: Battle Heroes [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom)
41. / 36. [NDS] Tokimeki Memorial: Girl's Side 3rd Story (Konami)
42. / 29. [NDS] Metal Max 3 (Kadokawa Shoten)
43. / 40. [NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco)
44. / 34. [PS3] Super Dimensional Game Neptune (Compile Heart)
45. / 44. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II: Special Edition (Ubisoft)
46. / 26. [PS3] Another Century's Episode R (Bandai Namco)
47. / 31. [PSP] Corpse Party: Blood Covered - Repeated Fear (5pb.)
48. / 39. [PSP] Hakuouki: Zuisouroku Portable (Idea Factory)
49. / 08. [PSP] Vitamin X: Evolution Plus (D3 Publisher)
50. / 47. [PS2] Persona 4 [PlayStation 2 the Best] (Atlus Co.)

00. / 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 3.196.673 / 40.626.576 (+371%)

NDS - 16
PSP - 15
WII - 8
PS3 - 8
360 - 2
PS2 - 1

Sell-through for Pokemon is around 90% for both versions.

More exact numbers for 2 versions.
[NDS] Pokemon Black (Pokemon Co.) - 1.323.000
[NDS] Pokemon White (Pokemon Co.) - 1.234.000
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Total software for the week of Black/White is bigger than the week of Qragon Quest IX

mcreate 2009 28 06/07/09 12/07/09 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 2.891.934
mcreate 2010 37 13/09/10 19/09/10 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 3.196.673

The market covered a big distance (1 million) thanks to Pokemon.

mcreate 2009 36 31/08/09 06/09/09 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 933.631 / 39.520.326
mcreate 2009 37 07/09/09 13/09/09 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 2.068.093 / 41.588.419

mcreate 2010 36 06/09/10 12/09/10 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 678.266 / 37.429.903
mcreate 2010 37 13/09/10 19/09/10 xx [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 3.196.673 / 40.626.576
 
At least his pictures this time make more sense than his Dragon Quest one some weeks ago. I still don't know what point he tried to make with it. That he has absolutely no talent with making pictures might be one of the reasons for that.
 
onipex said:
There are only 3 reasons I can think of that would explain why the Wii would not get more support.

#1 is that they (Nintendo) foolishly think they can carry the console without third parties.

#2 is that 3rd parties wont support the Wii no matter how much money Nintendo throws at them.

#3 is Nintendo does not care because they will replace the Wii soon.
The correct answer is #1
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Moor-Angol said:
The correct answer is #1
Even though Iwata stated many time how important strong 3rd party support is even for nintendo ? why publish games like monster hunter and dragon quest in the west when they dont care or dont think that they need 3rds partys.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Michan said:
That's a nice site you have there.
King Zell normally does this. It's OK. He's a long-time GAF poster and a great and enthusiastic contributor (especially back in the days where scans were still allowed to be posted :lol), and this is content that his site does weekly that you won't find anywhere else on the web.

If some random registered for GAF and his first ten posts were plugging his site's copies of images you'd find anywhere in the internet, definitely we'd be down on that. But just like Chris Kohler posting Wired stuff, we're in general okay with veteran members who like contributing to GAF posting links to their site when the site is doing coverage no one else is.
 
Stumpokapow said:
King Zell normally does this. It's OK. He's a long-time GAF poster and a great and enthusiastic contributor (especially back in the days where scans were still allowed to be posted :lol), and this is content that his site does weekly that you won't find anywhere else on the web.

If some random registered for GAF and his first ten posts were plugging his site's copies of images you'd find anywhere in the internet, definitely we'd be down on that. But just like Chris Kohler posting Wired stuff, we're in general okay with veteran members who like contributing to GAF posting links to their site when the site is doing coverage no one else is.
I've lurked the Media Create threads for at least as many years as he's been around, yet have never seen link flooding like that before (other than to the usual aggregators). Naturally, I didn't click anything. But if the content is original, useful, and GAF-admin-approved, then perhaps it should be highlighted as such (by means of a tag?) to disassociate him from those who are desperate to bring their freshly-grown blog into public eye, as well as to reassure posters who don't immediately recognise his username.
 
Michan said:
I've lurked the Media Create threads for at least as many years as he's been around, yet have never seen link flooding like that before (other than to the usual aggregators). Naturally, I didn't click anything. But if the content is original, useful, and GAF-admin-approved, then perhaps it should be highlighted as such (by means of a tag?) to disassociate him from those who are desperate to bring their freshly-grown blog into public eye, as well as to reassure posters who don't immediately recognise his username.
If you read Media Create threads regularly, you'll know that he does this pretty much every week. All the regulars who post in the thread are more than aware of it. Photos of stores selling and promoting the new releases of the week is a regular feature in these threads.
 
charlequin said:
I'm really not sure what evidence there is for them being separate markets, though. Let's go over some factors that seem to be necessary to have two products compete in the same market.

  • Their sales respond to one another. On the most basic measure, this seems to be accurate because Japanese consumers have been replacing their expenditure on home consoles with expenditure on handhelds (rather than expanding both).
  • Secondary market actors treat them as exchangeable alternatives. In previous generations, the handheld market and console market were treated by developers as meaningfully distinct -- each was targeted to serve a different demographic and franchises either took a sidecar approach ("real" games on console with spinoffs on handheld) or an either/or approach (picking which of the two fit their demographic best and sticking with it forever.) This generation we've seen dramatically increased osmosis between the two handheld platforms and the three home consoles, with series that move full-on entries from one to the other (VC, DQ), series that have their "real" entries on handhelds while less important entries are on consoles (MH), etc. There's no thin line nominally separating the two.
  • They are substitutionary goods for one another. It seems pretty straightforward that this is true in a meaningful fashion this generation. Very much unlike the GBA (which had a library of good games but never reached a point of standing effectively on its own), both the DS and PSP have the strength and depth of library to stand alone as full-on replacements of home consoles -- and our sales figures (and anecdotal evidence suggest that there are likely many people who are using them in exactly that fashion.

In the West, I think this would be much more arguable (and I'd probably still consider the two as separate markets there.) But in Japan it seems straightforwardly true.
Although you make a fair point I don't think I agree. I remember that there was a time where both Wii and DS were doing amazing numbers. Both of them declined but I don't think the decline of the Wii was because of the DS or PSP. I don't think there is anything that points to that actually. It's far more likely to have declined because of poor software support.

Also motion controls are not possible on handhelds (like in Wiisports) and Nintendo has been trying to make motion controlled gaming successful. They may have failed in that partially (in Japan) but with all the console makers going into the motion controlled market I think there will definitely be a true distinction between handheld and home consoles. They provide totally different experiences.
 
duckroll said:
If you read Media Create threads regularly, you'll know that he does this pretty much every week. All the regulars who post in the thread are more than aware of it. Photos of stores selling and promoting the new releases of the week is a regular feature in these threads.
I'm by no means suggesting it isn't, and it's one of the reasons I (and I'm sure many others) return to these threads. But no, I don't recall ever seeing him link flood, and I stand by my suggestion. After all; newcomers who aren't as familiar with the rules could quite easily see it as an invitation to do the same.

We're just lucky the Media Create threads are mostly inhabited by long-time posters, and do not usually see contributions from new users... hence their dwindling popularity.
 
ksamedi said:
I remember that there was a time where both Wii and DS were doing amazing numbers. Both of them declined but I don't think the decline of the Wii was because of the DS or PSP.
I'm not saying any individual decline is directly attributable to sales being directly stolen by a competing system, but rather that across all systems, we see evidence that the same consumer budget is being tapped by all of these systems.

Also motion controls are not possible on handhelds (like in Wiisports) and Nintendo has been trying to make motion controlled gaming successful.
Irrelevant to the point I'm making. You can make literally the exact same argument about HD to spell out why Wii isn't "really" in the running in the console market and I think everyone would agree that such an argument would be ludicrous.
 
Quite a sharp drop for Metroid, but it squeezed out another ~5,000 sales, which isn't too shabby. It wonder if next week is a slow one whether it will climb back up a little.

Interesting to see Taiko, Fire Emblem and DQM Wii still hovering at moderate levels as well.
 
duckroll said:
That would be the case if it's the only version of the game on the market... like Blue Roses.
But even then for a game like that it seems to me that the 360 cost of building it along side would be more expensive than the revenues it brought in, that is unless it has some tiny legs.
 
demosthenes said:
But even then for a game like that it seems to me that the 360 cost of building it along side would be more expensive than the revenues it brought in, that is unless it has some tiny legs.
That would be the case if this was a multiplatform title intended for Japan only. Which is also clearly not the case.
 
duckroll said:
That would be the case if this was a multiplatform title intended for Japan only. Which is also clearly not the case.
Ah, point taken.

If that's the case then why won't more companies subtitle their games and be happy with the 10,000 or so copies they would sell over here? :lol
 
demosthenes said:
Ah, point taken.

If that's the case then why won't more companies subtitle their games and be happy with the 10,000 or so copies they would sell over here? :lol
I think it's a bit more complicated than that. Yakuza 3 showed that it's not impossible to do. Not only did Sega get approval from Sony to do it, but they also charged a discounted price for it. Although that might have more to do with removing content and an incomplete localization, rather than just having subs.

We'll see what Sega does for Yakuza 4, and if any other publishers decide to try that business model out.