Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2017 (Jun 19 - Jun 25)

So again; Iwata is at fault. Great developer. Horrible business leader.
What the fuck are you on about.

At this point Nintendo should try for a slightly lower price Switch SKU with less internal memory (8-16GB) from a different supplier to try and alleviate some of these stock problems. Even if it affects the performance of games loading from there to an extent.
That's not even remotely how this works.
 
Ys VIII getting even a slight bump this late is really encouraging and and a surprise, even considering the pre-order bonus (a promo artbook for Sen no Kiseki III, clearly included to bait Kiseki fans into getting into the PS4 ecosystem). It's got awesome word of mouth at this point and has sold as much as Falcom projected Tokyo Xanadu to sell, with less work since most of the extra content in this port was originally meant for the Vita game but had to be removed o save space.
 
I don't get the whole arms dropped because there aren't enough switch out there... I mean aren't there already a million switch sold in Japan? Perhaps people just aren't interested in arms.
ARMS' attach rate right now is somewhere around ~12-14%, probably more so when accounting for digital sales. Considering there's roughly 1 million Switches in Japan that is a solid attach rate and it's currently the fourth best selling retail Switch title. Since it's seemingly selling faster than 1-2 Switch did, which is the third best, it'll probably be the third best within in two weeks. But if that attach rate is going to bear fruit they're going to have to get more Switch consoles out there and right now there's just not enough people being able to get a hold of Switches. As previously mentioned, even some of the best selling titles of a console are lucky to have a 50% attach rate.

I would expect a boost to ARMS' numbers once Splatoon 2 comes out since that seems to be when they're targeting the next big Switch supply. It sucks that ARMS isn't going to get enough limelight for itself but it's going to have to ride on some coattails due to these circumstances.
 
The apparent legs are more likely because the game does not need to do big numbers to stay in the top 10 right now, there is still a long way to reach the PS Vita total sales (83.816). But yeah, it's doing great, probably more than 150K combined with digital now. I can't find any trace of a Ys game selling better. The game is also being granted a translation in french for the first time courtesy of NISA, which is of course nice for the european sales :)
I wasn't aware of the french translation. That's very nice.

Ys VIII getting even a slight bump this late is really encouraging and and a surprise, even considering the pre-order bonus (a promo artbook for Sen no Kiseki III, clearly included to bait Kiseki fans into getting into the PS4 ecosystem). It's got awesome word of mouth at this point and has sold as much as Falcom projected Tokyo Xanadu to sell, with less work since most of the extra content in this port was originally meant for the Vita game but had to be removed o save space.
Seeing YsVIII sales on PS4 and Kiseki 3 already appearing on COMG (even if it's the limited version), it seems that Kiseki 3 will do decent on PS4. At least it won't have the massive decline most people believed when we learned that it will be a PS4 exclusive and they will drop VITA.
 
I don't get the whole arms dropped because there aren't enough switch out there... I mean aren't there already a million switch sold in Japan? Perhaps people just aren't interested in arms.
People buying the console might pick up the latest games for it.

Less consoles available for sale depresses all software.

Some people interested in arms might have not been able to find a switch yet. It's not hard to understand...
 
I don' get why there are still so many "stockpile" theory people here, like, even after the official apology and shit. Why would anyone in their right mind think there is a "stockpile" after seeing how much the stock issue has hurt the Switch, in terms of both (potential) customer frustration and 3rd party's lack of motivation to support the machine, because the install base just won't fucking grow fast enough in this really critical time?

Seriously, dear conspiracy people, if you have something to sell, would you rather make the money in the future than right now? Stockpile for Splatoon 2? Like if you sell your Switch to your customer now, Splatoon 2 won't sell when it hits? But if the Switch is held for later, it will? Just what were you thinking?

Nintendo is stupid (and to some extent understandably so after the Wii U flop), couldn't gauge the interest correctly and didn't place a big enough order before launch. That's all about it. There's no magical stockpile of Switches; and if there is, Nintendo would be the first one to utilize that to get your cash ASAP. Geez.

Because it's 100% confirmed they are holding back stock when they confirmed those bundles. You don't create Splatoon 2/MHXX bundles without using stock to do it. Stock you have to hold back and use in said bundles. Also, how do you think they are raising shipments of Switch "starting in July" and then not raising production until fall? There is only one logical conclusion.

I'm not saying it's going to be astronomical numbers, but it went from 50k to 25k a week starting in mid May. That would be a few hundred thousand for bundles and launch week sales saved. Then hopefully back to 50k a week.

In addition to the bundles you really want more stock than a measly normal weekly shipment for your big game launch. You want people without a Switch to have a shot at getting it so they at least try and show interest in it. You don't want to overly frustrate them and have them see that nobody is getting it.
 
Given retail in the US seeing fairly large and consistent refreshes in end of June. I think production has increased but supply is so strained that a lot of it went into heavily underserved channels.

Consider the size of the NA market and that some major retail resupply occurred across the entire nation at multiple retailers over multiple days. Many of these retailers were underserved for a long time and now we're finally given supply... So that supply won't show up other markets yet.

The first step of ramped production is to fill in the most barren segments as you want presence.
 
Given retail in the US seeing fairly large and consistent refreshes in end of June. I think production has increased but supply is so strained that a lot of it went into heavily underserved channels.

Consider the size of the NA market and that some major retail resupply occurred across the entire nation at multiple retailers over multiple days. Many of these retailers were underserved for a long time and now we're finally given supply... So that supply won't show up other markets yet.

The first step of ramped production is to fill in the most barren segments as you want presence.
All evidence points to no production increase yet, but will happen in fall. Including Nintendo's own statements. It also makes no sense. Why would they say they are increasing production in the fall, if they were actually increasing it in July.
 
All evidence points to no production increase yet, but will happen in fall. Including Nintendo's own statements.
Well then I have no idea where they popped up all the supply that was missing in May/start of June for end of June (with refreshes happing well past the launch of ARMS).

They're either redistributing a finite sum into these underserved channels or they *are* realizing new supply.

I always read the statement from Nintendo as the point of full realization in volume, not when they will actually start ramping supply. Supply will ramp slowly with improved line support and yields, but the total volume increase won't be realized for some time until all lines are running and all channels are adequately served to some baseline.

Segments of the US have not *seen* supply until now, and some retailers like Amazon are struggling to resupply on a month+ basis.
 
Well then I have no idea where they popped up all the supply that was missing in May/start of June for end of June (with refreshes happing well past the launch of ARMS).

They're either redistributing a finite sum into these underserved channels or they *are* realizing new supply.

I always read the statement from Nintendo as the point of full realization in volume, not when they will actually start ramping supply. Supply will ramp slowly with improved line support and yields, but the total volume increase won't be realized for some time until all lines are running and all channels are adequately served to some baseline.

Segments of the US have not *seen* supply until now, and some retailers like Amazon are struggling to resupply on a month+ basis.
Or they were actually holding back supply like people have said. What's logical here between your theory and the evidence we have, or that they were holding back supply for a big release.
 
Or they were actually holding back supply like people have said......
Held supply would be released on Splatoon 2, not *after* ARMS (there was a resupply that coincided *with* ARMS as well, but two weeks post there have been regularly resupplies as well as can be evidenced in the Stock thread with info from BB/Walmart people). Supply dried up immediately after MK8D, one would expect the same for ARMS to build into Splatoon 2 but in the US that is not what happened.
 
Well then I have no idea where they popped up all the supply that was missing in May/start of June for end of June (with refreshes happing well past the launch of ARMS).

They're either redistributing a finite sum into these underserved channels or they *are* realizing new supply.

I always read the statement from Nintendo as the point of full realization in volume, not when they will actually start ramping supply. Supply will ramp slowly with improved line support and yields, but the total volume increase won't be realized for some time until all lines are running and all channels are adequately served to some baseline.
We've heard anecdotally that places like Scandinavia and Australia have way more supply than demand, so it's possible that some stock that would've been allocated for those regions (probably more than just those two) has been redistributed to places like NA, with the huge Best Buy restock that happened last weekend.

But I do agree with your reading of their statement too. I find it hard to believe they didn't begin ramping up production in March after the ridiculous demand was made apparent, so while we might not be seeing an end to the supply constraints now, it's certainly possible that we'll see a bit more per shipment happening now and continuing to grow through the Fall.

However, the numbers in the OP don't really support that theory, so either the supply has been just increased recently, as in over the past 4-5 days, they're trying to increase supply to NA rather than Japan right now, or it is just a simple redistribution. Or, fourth option, the anecdotal evidence is simply just anecdotal.
 
We've heard anecdotally that places like Scandinavia and Australia have way more supply than demand, so it's possible that some stock that would've been allocated for those regions (probably more than just those two) has been redistributed to places like NA, with the huge Best Buy restock that happened last weekend.
Those are tiny markets.

However, the numbers in the OP don't really support that theory, so either the supply has been just increased recently, as in over the past 4-5 days, they're trying to increase supply to NA rather than Japan right now, or it is just a simple redistribution. Or, fourth option, the anecdotal evidence is simply just anecdotal.
I think they may just be building towards a very large Splatoon 2 launch week supply, so they are holding back supply right now to be sure they have adequate for the day of...

Additional supply realization is going into there but also feeding numerous other channels, and we're not talking *million* turn over her in increase, we're likely talking about tens to a few hundred (at most) thousand production increases at current times which has to be distributed globally.
 
Those are tiny markets.
How tiny though? I would think a half to 1 months worth of planned shipments to those regions would be enough to increase one week's shipment at a couple of retailers in NA

I think they may just be building towards a very large Splatoon 2 launch week supply, so they are holding back supply right now to be sure they have adequate for the day of...
Yeah I certainly hope that's the case too.
 
How tiny though? I would think a half to 1 months worth of planned shipments to those regions would be enough to increase one week's shipment at a couple of retailers in NA
No clue. But there are thousands of retails stores in the US under Walmart/BB/Target that all saw restock for ARMS, and at least Walmart and BB saw restock this past week as well.

If you take just BB at 1,026 stores across the US, cut that in half (arbitrary but a good limiter), and multiple by an average of 25 units or thereabouts, that's 13,000 units of thereabouts for *one* retail chain. Just one retailer, with my large margins, could have seen more stock in a weekend than the entirety of Japan did last week.

Scandinavia/Australia likely all fall well under that number, combined.
 
How tiny though? I would think a half to 1 months worth of planned shipments to those regions would be enough to increase one week's shipment at a couple of retailers in NA
For Scandinavia back in 2007 Wii sold 300 000 total, which should give you an idea of the size of the Scandinavian market.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Famitsu Sales: Week 26, 2017 (Jun 19 - Jun 25)

01./01. [NSW] Arms <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 32.838 / 154.845 <60-80%> (-73%)
02./00. [3DS] The Alliance Alive <RPG> (FuRyu) {2017.06.22} (¥6.280) - 29.539 / NEW <60-80%>
03./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: Stormblood # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.06.20} (¥3.800) - 29.328 / NEW <80-100%>
04./02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.211 / 501.614 <80-100%> (-29%)
05./00. [PS4] Farpoint |PlayStation VR| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.22} (¥5.900) - 9.496 / NEW <60-80%>
06./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.03.18} (¥5.800) - 6.411 / 1.640.005 <80-100%> (-14%)
07./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV: The Complete Edition {Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn \ Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward \ Final Fantasy XIV: Stormblood} <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.06.20} (¥5.800) - 6.211 / NEW <60-80%>
08./00. [PS4] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 5.908 / NEW <60-80%>
09./00. [PSV] God Wars: Future Past <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 5.690 / NEW <60-80%>
10./03. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 5.589 / 460.480 <80-100%> (-26%)
11./05. [PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.06.01} (¥8.200) - 4.099 / 78.484 <80-100%> (-36%)
12./06. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.02.23} (¥7.800) - 4.058 / 311.906 <80-100%> (+3%)
13./07. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.05.25} (¥6.800) - 3.331 / 51.514 <80-100%> (+0%)
14./11. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 2.908 / 266.337 <80-100%> (+7%)
15./12. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.12.03} (¥2.400) - 2.779 / 220.781 <80-100%> (+3%)
16./10. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 2.765 / 3.774.084 <80-100%> (-1%)
17./09. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.27} (¥5.700) - 2.686 / 163.049 <80-100%> (-15%)
18./13. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700) - 2.155 / 187.257 <80-100%> (+3%)
19./14. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.400) - 2.140 / 985.899 <80-100%> (+4%)
20./08. [NSW] Seiken Densetsu Collection <Seiken Densetsu: Final Fantasy Adventure \ Seiken Densetsu 2: Secret of Mana \ Seiken Densetsu 3> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.06.01} (¥4.800) - 1.851 / 41.128 <60-80%> (-44%)
21./00. [PS4] LocoRoco Remastered <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.06.22} (¥1.800) - 1.814 / NEW <20-40%>
22./20. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 1.784 / 987.461 <80-100%> (+10%)
23./16. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Climax <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.04.20} (¥5.700) - 1.574 / 82.201 <80-100%> (-12%)
24./15. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571) - 1.565 / 2.723.161 <80-100%> (-22%)
25./19. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥4.800) - 1.536 / 724.964 <80-100%> (-5%)
26./25. [PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <Dark Souls III \ Dark Souls III: Ashes of Ariandel \ Dark Souls III: The Ringed City> <RPG> (From Software) {2017.04.20} (¥5.900) - 1.534 / 65.290 <80-100%> (+7%)
27./18. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 1.510 / 327.390 <80-100%> (-7%)
28./00. [PSV] Tokyo Yamanote Boys for V: Main Disc <Tokyo Yamanote Boys Portable: Honey Milk Disc \ Tokyo Yamanote Boys Portable: Super Mint Disc \ Tokyo Yamanote Boys Portable: Dark Cherry Disc> # <ADV> (Rejet) {2017.06.22} (¥6.800) - 1.501 / NEW <60-80%>
29./21. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} (¥6.800) - 1.401 / 117.998 <80-100%> (-9%)
30./22. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 1.389 / 117.352 <80-100%> (-9%)
00./17. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 1.241 / 200.807 <80-100%> (-30%)
00./28. [NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 916 / 92.112 <80-100%> (-27%)

Top 30

PS4 - 13
3DS - 8
NSW - 4
PSV - 3
WIU - 2

HARDWARE
Code:
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|  NSW  |     26.964 |     49.440 |            |  1.016.473 |            |   1.016.473 |
| PS4 # |     26.140 |     25.117 |     21.475 |    877.630 |    716.849 |   4.799.246 |
| 3DS # |     12.651 |     12.112 |     20.016 |    872.620 |    667.907 |  22.784.033 |
| PSV # |      4.535 |      4.573 |     11.391 |    260.296 |    533.008 |   5.507.715 |
|  PS3  |        204 |        324 |        871 |     14.864 |     32.950 |  10.272.583 |
| XB1 # |        181 |         69 |         72 |      5.093 |      3.172 |      78.041 |
|  WIU  |        108 |        253 |      4.442 |     18.977 |    218.215 |   3.298.715 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|  ALL  |     70.783 |     91.888 |     58.267 |  3.065.953 |  2.172.101 |  47.756.806 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| XB1 S |        181 |         69 |            |        311 |            |       6.039 |
|PS4 Pro|      6.680 |      5.676 |            |    154.821 |            |     271.871 |
|  PS4  |     19.460 |     19.441 |     21.475 |    722.809 |    716.849 |   4.527.375 |
|  PSV  |      4.535 |      4.573 |     11.391 |    260.296 |    533.008 |   5.507.715 |
|  2DS  |      2.529 |      2.680 |            |    215.995 |            |     513.142 |
| n-3DS |     10.122 |      9.432 |     19.364 |    656.625 |    625.032 |   5.350.614 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
 
Curious what the advantage of "stockpiling" for Splatoon 2 would be?

You sell 80k now and 30k then, or 30k now and 80k then. Is it just to help sell the software in bundles? Doesn't seem like a big difference either way.
 
The factories that had to set up production lines for the 2GB NAND chips could have been retooled to make more 32GB NAND chips. The actual size of the chips matters little to the production lines.
Emmm I don't think it works like that... Not an expert or anything but I don't believe it's as easy as "retool" production lines or we wouldn't have this issue at all... Remember it affects only a certain type of memories.
 
I think they've overestimated their ability to met demand by a large amount.
They underestimated the demand. Once they adapted production to fulfill supply to the demand they saw it was too late to secure the required amount of scarce parts in advance. For now they apparently rely on whatever amount they can get their hands on on the free market, until the time arrives where they can get all parts as needed/then ordered in advance.

In that regard it would be interesting how long the lead time needed is to e.g. order 8 digits amount of 32GB eMMC flash from Samsung. Even without scarcity I doubt the turn around is that fast, and with scarcity and a waiting list the companies that ordered sufficient parts early on naturally are better off.

Given retail in the US seeing fairly large and consistent refreshes in end of June. I think production has increased but supply is so strained that a lot of it went into heavily underserved channels.
Considering the shipping time to America/Europe is up to a month depending on location the refreshes there are like a window into the past already.
 
Curious what the advantage of "stockpiling" for Splatoon 2 would be?

You sell 80k now and 30k then, or 30k now and 80k then. Is it just to help sell the software in bundles? Doesn't seem like a big difference either way.
I'm curious too, as I've never understood that theory when it's been stated as such a foregone conclusion. The whole idea of selling less for weeks 1/2/3 to sell more for week 4 seems strange if the total value sold is the same as selling as many as you can as fast as you can.
 
I'm curious too, as I've never understood that theory when it's been stated as such a foregone conclusion. The whole idea of selling less for weeks 1/2/3 to sell more for week 4 seems strange if the total value sold is the same as selling as many as you can as fast as you can.
People are likely to pick more software in week 4 if a big game is released that week.
 
I'm curious too, as I've never understood that theory when it's been stated as such a foregone conclusion. The whole idea of selling less for weeks 1/2/3 to sell more for week 4 seems strange if the total value sold is the same as selling as many as you can as fast as you can.
Curious what the advantage of "stockpiling" for Splatoon 2 would be?

You sell 80k now and 30k then, or 30k now and 80k then. Is it just to help sell the software in bundles? Doesn't seem like a big difference either way.
The idea is that you get people into retail at once with the promise of hardware and software, and they will then potentially buy a lot of other stuff too. You centralize action, and people who are looking for unit know that that's a good day to go get one since "Oh supply is going to be large at launch, that's a good time to go!" and they will then also potentially pick up other stuff. You want to have as much supply for that title as possible so that people who want *Title X* have a good shot at getting the system and *Title X* the day they launch. They wouldn't have come to retail before the launch of said title.

You also need to amass stock for bundles and other such promotional things, and you don't want to remove that supply from that weeks already alloted values. If the title is large, bundles + promotional deals will tend to be a fairly large-% of your sales for the week so you need ample supply.

Considering the shipping time to America/Europe is up to a month depending on location the refreshes there are like a window into the past already.
Ya this is a good point too, everything we analyze is weeks if not months after finalization and planning.