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[MacTag]

This discussion is rather bizarre, but how many 1-2 million+ JRPGs on the PS4 is anyone really expecting in the first place?

(also random tangent: I'd be shocked if Awakening wasn't over 2 million by now)

In Japan there might end up being none. Worldwide I think FFXV, FFVIIr, DQXI, KH3, Persona 5 and Ni No Kuni II will all manage a million+ on PS4. Also there's Bloodborne and Dark Souls III if those count.

More curious, I wonder if any JRPGs can squeak past a million on Xbox One worldwide?

Somehow I doubt it's on the 3ds because 2 million for a MH title is low balling it really low unless it's a spin off(not MHS tier spinoff but something resembling the main games). Maybe they have high hopes for an NX only MH title and it'll be a WW launch title.

Capcom's been lowballing MH targets for awhile now. 3G (1.2m), 4 (2.8m) and X (2.5m) all shot past their FY projections for Japan. Even 4U beat it's worldwide target of 3.9m.

Also, if it is XG and the game is 3DS/NX crossplatform it might not be launching until next March. 2m might just end up being for a week or two.

 

[Bruno MB]

It may be possible but I still think 2 million is waaaay too low which makes me a bit skeptical.

It is not low since it will most likely be released during the 4th quarter of fiscal year ending March 31, 2017. They already have Monster Hunter Stories for the 3rd quarter and they aren't going to release 2 major Monster Hunter titles in such a short span of time (let's say one in October and the other one in December).

The untitled Monster Hunter title will probably be a March release, which means it would only have a few weeks / days of tracking on top of missing the biggest period of sales. 2 million would basically be the launch shipment. Monster Hunter X (Cross) was unveiled on 31 May, 2016 for a November release, we are practically in September and we still know nothing about the unannounced title, so what I say makes a lot of sense.

Regarding the platform, it will undoubtedly be on 3DS, there is no way the game could remotely get close to 2 million unit if it is not on 3DS.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I kinda want to see how a mainline FF game would have done on the DS a la DQIX.

Western sales would of cratered.

Would you like to provide examples of this? Because it most certainly appears to me that it does with or without including Pokemon, it really doesn't matter.

A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

 

[Akki]

It is not low since it will most likely be released during the 4th quarter of fiscal year ending March 31, 2017. They already have Monster Hunter Stories for the 3rd quarter and they aren't going to release 2 major Monster Hunter titles in such a short span of time (let's say one in October and the other one in December).

The untitled Monster Hunter title will probably be a March release, which means it would only have a few weeks / days of tracking on top of missing the biggest period of sales. 2 million would basically be the launch shipment. Monster Hunter X (Cross) was unveiled on 31 May, 2016 for a November release, we are practically in September and we still know nothing about the unannounced title, so what I say makes a lot of sense.

Regarding the platform, it will undoubtedly be on 3DS, there is no way the game could remotely get close to 2 million unit if it is not on 3DS.

No way they´ll release a 3ds only Monster Hunter in march. NX release will impact their sales and Monster Hunter will probably impact the japanese NX sales aswell. There is no benefit. Better sacrifice the sales of MH stories (preorders are pretty bad) instead of a mainline game which will sell far more and a new console which might be important for their business in the future.

My money is on MH XG in december or a cross platform game in march, 3ds/nx or nx/ps4.

 

[Chris1964]

No way they´ll release a 3ds only Monster Hunter in march.

He didn't say it will be only 3DS, NX will be involved and that's likely the reason it hasn't revealed yet.

 

[Celine]

I kinda want to see how a mainline FF game would have done on the DS a la DQIX.

FF is a series that rely on high quality graphics I don't think a mainline FF exclusive to DS would have made any sense.
Instead a FF closer to the fantasy roots (and chibi style) or FFIX would have been a good idea which is basically what Four Heroes of Light was however I feel SE was too slow to siege opportunity and didn't put enough effort toward it (the game was released 5 years after the launch of the system!).

A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

Many of those have yet to release their main games on PS4.
Also 3DS has some games called Pokemon and Yokai Watch but I'm not sure if they are worthy to be cited among some of the biggest IPs like Tales and Star Ocean.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Many of those have yet to release their main games on PS4.
Also 3DS has some games called Pokemon and Yokai Watch but I'm not sure if they are worthy to be cited among some of the biggest IPs like Tales and Star Ocean.

Does it matter when we know and have known for a while that they will be on PS4?
I mean, I did say more of the traditional kind. My point still stands.

 

[Celine]

Does it matter when we know and have known for a while that they will be on PS4?

Yes, because then we can value their sales performance.

I mean, I did say more of the traditional kind. My point still stands.

What does "traditional" mean?
Because games you've listed like Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest and Fire Emblem have little in common.

Of course we know why you left out Pokemon and Yokai Watch ;-)

 

[GhostTrick]

Western sales would of cratered.



A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

3DS also had a Kingdom Hearts and Tales of game. And also Pokémon and Youkai Watch btw...

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yes, because then we can value their sales performance.

We don't even need to, to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+ hence be amongst the biggest of the genre.

What does "traditional" mean?
Because games you've listed like Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest and Fire Emblem have little in common.

Of course we know why you left out Pokemon and Yokai Watch ;-)

Like I said, include it if you want, my point still stands.

 

[Sandfox]

Western sales would of cratered.



A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

I would argue that the 3DS franchises you listed are bigger than the PS4 ones you listed and even that's ignoring a bunch of games that did pretty well, including two of the biggest JRPG franchises out there.

We don't even need to to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+

KH2 sold like 4 million WW and 3 will surely sell less so we'll see there.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

He didn't say it will be only 3DS, NX will be involved and that's likely the reason it hasn't revealed yet.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

 

[GhostTrick]

We don't even need to, to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+ hence be amongst the biggest of the genre.



Like I said, include it if you want, my point still stands.

How do we know that ?

 

[Nirolak]

I mean even if we just take Psycho_Mantis' list as is, the last four there are not big IPs - the last two are particularly irrelevant - and I'm not actually convinced Kingdom Hearts is anywhere even remotely close to the relevance it had in the PS2 era.

 

[Oregano]

Yeah four million for FF is easy but I'm not Kingdom Hearts will hit that level.

 

[Celine]

We don't even need to, to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+ hence be amongst the biggest of the genre.

I wonder how KH3 will perform worldwide.
Sincerely I wouldn't bet it will sell more than 4M units, I'm mean it's not a sure bet like it is in the case of FFXV.

 

[MacTag]

We don't even need to, to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+ hence be amongst the biggest of the genre.

I bet Pokémon SunMoon outsells both PS4 versions combined. You can probably even throw in FFVIIr and DQXI PS4.

 

[Ōkami]

Will FF and KH combined sell as much as Pokémon?

How much overlap is between the two series to say that combined the have a bigger fanbase that Pokémon?

Because if 4m+ is what they're going to sell then just in Japan Pokémon is bigger than both.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Globally? KH 3, Persona 5 and FF XV, DQ XI. Japan only? Only DQ XI has a chance.

You don't think that FFXV or FFVIIR can do a million in Japan ?
I think JRPGs will perform around the same as there were on PS3 in Japan .
Of course some of them were already dying on PS3 like Tales and SO so that mess things up a bit .

 

[Oregano]

You don't think that FFXV or FFVIIR can do a million in Japan ?

They could do but at least for the former it's looking surprisingly difficult.

 

[Celine]

Like I said, include it if you want, my point still stands.

I don't see how.
Including what Yokai Watch and Pokemon sold on 3DS would mean including 35 million units of "JRPG" games sold (I'm excluding Sun and Moon but yeah the number is only going to get bigger).
Without considering that Dragon Quest performed (and was supported) better on 3DS than PS4 (let's see the platform split when DQXI will be launched).
To add to these we have a couple of new IP that performed well despite not being sales phenomenon like Bravely Default and Fantasy Life

Spoiler

and a disappointment like Kingdom Hearts 3D.

To be clear I'm not saying 3DS is the only platform for JRPG but JRPG game sales on 3DS demonstrated that it's userbase is particularly receptive to the genre (more than what PS4 has demonstrated as of now).

 

[gundamkyoukai]

They could do but at least for the former it's looking surprisingly difficult.

Well the user base going to be around the same as PS3 when FFXIII came out .
FFXIII sold around 1.5 million in the first week.
Has the hype for FFXV been that bad in Japan ?

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

They could do but at least for the former it's looking surprisingly difficult.

I don't think so. Now 1.5m? Very difficult. Even 1.3 would be tough I reckon. Just depends on how good the game ends up being at the end of the day.

 

[Oregano]

Well the user base going to be around the same as PS3 when FFXIII came out .
FFXIII sold around 1.5 million in the first week.
Has the hype for FFXV been that bad in Japan ?

Well preorders look a lot lower from what we can tell and overall PS4 software sales have been quite soft.

EDit:

I don't think so. Now 1.5m? Very difficult. Even 1.3 would be tough I reckon. Just depends on how good the game ends up being at the end of the day.

True, I might be underestimating it.

 

[And_Gignac]

We don't even need to, to know FF and KH will sell 4 million+ hence be amongst the biggest of the genre.



Like I said, include it if you want, my point still stands.

Nah. JRPGs in Sony platforms are sales-wise inferior to what Nintendo currently has in the 3DS. Even Kingdom Hearts is Fire Emblem tier at this point.

 

[Eolz]

I know it's from last page but:

So are we expecting the Monster Hunter title to be announced in the Nintendo direct or will it be for the TGS (or later) ?

Is it plausible to expect a new Atlus game for 3DS announced on thursday?
EO5 has been released and right now, if i'm not wrong, they don't have anything coming out for 3DS in the next months/early next year.
Maybe it's time for DS3?

those would be kept for the NX reveal. The Direct could have some smaller scale titles, but unlikely from them. I can see something for Stories though (both in japan and internationally).

 

[MacTag]

We might get a western release for EOV announced at least.

 

[Vena]

Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

Tell us what you know!

I don't think so. Now 1.5m? Very difficult. Even 1.3 would be tough I reckon. Just depends on how good the game ends up being at the end of the day.

I still have trouble seeing FFXV breaking a million. The episodic nature is going to be a gunshot to the knees of selling a million, imo.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I wonder how KH3 will perform worldwide.
Sincerely I wouldn't bet it will sell more than 4M units, I'm mean it's not a sure bet like it is in the case of FFXV.

sure but I would bet in favour of it

I don't see how.
Including what Yokai Watch and Pokemon sold on 3DS would mean including 35 million units of "JRPG" games sold (I'm excluding Sun and Moon but yeah the number is only going to get bigger).
Without considering that Dragon Quest performed (and was supported) better on 3DS than PS4 (let's see the platform split when DQXI will be launched).
To add to these we have a couple of new IP that performed well despite not being sales phenomenon like Bravely Default and Fantasy Life

Spoiler

and a disappointment like Kingdom Hearts 3D.

To be clear I'm not saying 3DS is the only platform for JRPG but JRPG game sales on 3DS demonstrated that it's userbase is particularly receptive to the genre (more than what PS4 has demonstrated as of now).

Well then you have missed my point: To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments. Since your including Pokemon and YW, both have some of the largest IP's of the genre.

I mean even if we just take Psycho_Mantis' list as is, the last four there are not big IPs - the last two are particularly irrelevant - and I'm not actually convinced Kingdom Hearts is anywhere even remotely close to the relevance it had in the PS2 era.

Well I included SMT and BD.

 

[theprodigy]

Western sales would of cratered.



A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

This list is hilarious.

Pokemon>>FF
DQ 3DS>KH
Mario>DQ PS4
Fire Emblem>Persona (I'd bet $20 on this)
Yokai>Ni No Kuni

 

[Celine]

KH2 sold like 4 million WW and 3 will surely sell less so we'll see there.

Total shipment worldwide:

KH1 (PS2): 6.30M
KH2 (PS2): 5.10M
KH 358/2 Days (DS): 1.70M
KH BBS (PSP): 1.70M
KH CoM (GBA): 1.55M
KH 3D (3DS): 1.10M

and I'm not actually convinced Kingdom Hearts is anywhere even remotely close to the relevance it had in the PS2 era.

It's damn hard to judge, I mean the two mainline games shipped more than 5M each but it was a decade ago and lots has changed in the industry since then.
Spinoff on handhelds sold relatively well but lower than 2M and again most of them were released 5 or more years ago.

Another uncertainty variable is how much SE could overship the game

I mean even if we just take Psycho_Mantis' list as is, the last four there are not big IPs - the last two are particularly irrelevant -

At least Ni No Kuni shipped 1.10M on PS3 which for a new JRPG IP is a good result and Persona seems a growing series in popularity although it's not yet huge.
Tales of and Star Ocean are indeed more problematic.
The former is in steep decline while the latter I'm not even sure why SE decided to fund a new episode (when Star Ocean 5 on PS4 cannot match the sales of Star Ocean 4 on Xbox 360 in Japan you know there is something very wrong) .

 

[Orgen]

This list is hilarious.

Pokemon>>FF
DQ>...DQ
Mario RPGs should at least match KH
Fire Emblem>Persona (I'd bet $20 on this)
Yokai>Ni No Kuni

You forgot Tales and Star Ocean, the 2 biggest traditional globally RPG evah! ;D

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Mario RPG > KH
Come on

 

[Oregano]

Are they really different segments?

Dragon Quest is on both(NNK is aimed at a similar audience and started on the DS!), Bravely Default is clearly aimed at FF fans, SMT and Persona are pretty much the same series. Kingdom Hearts is a million seller on 3DS and Tales and Persona have both appeared on there(and both did pretty well).

Spoiler

Also lol at Bravely being noted as dead and not Star Ocean. Would put good money on Bravely Second significantly outselling Star Ocean V worldwide

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

I still have trouble seeing FFXV breaking a million. The episodic nature is going to be a gunshot to the knees of selling a million, imo.

We talking about FFXV or VIIIR? Confused D:

Also, as for my last comment, I just wouldn't be surprised if it's MHXG for NX and Capcom are indeed waiting for Nintendo to reveal the system before saying anything. The fact they've mentioned another MH game's existence but refuse to disclose what it is or what platform it's for is kind of telling. I honestly don't know what else they could add to MHXG though. As much as I love MHGen, it does feel a tad bloated.

 

[theprodigy]

Mario RPG > KH
Come on

Yeah whatever dude, switch DQ 3DS (+NX) and Mario and the point still stands.

 

[Vena]

We talking about FFXV or VIIIR? Confused D:

Both, I may not have made that clear with the way I broke my sentences up. Oops. I realize now that I made an error, haha.

First clause is FFXV, second clause is FFVIIR.

Also, as for my last comment, I just wouldn't be surprised if it's MHXG for NX and Capcom are indeed waiting for Nintendo to reveal the system before saying anything. The fact they've mentioned another MH game's existence but refuse to disclose what it is or what platform it's for is kind of telling. I honestly don't know what else they could add to MHXG though. As much as I love MHGen, it does feel a tad bloated.

I was joking, lol. You must have missed some of the (thankfully) closed looney toon bins of NX threads.

 

[Celine]

Mario RPG > KH
Come on

KH1 and 2 shipped more than any "Mario RPG".
On the other hand almost any "Mario RPG" games actually shipped more than all the other KH released afterward.
Of course one can say all those games on GBA, DS, 3DS and PSP were spinoff but it's past so much time since KH1 & 2 that I'm not sure what to expect for KH3.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yeah whatever dude, switch DQ 3DS (+NX) and Mario and the point still stands.

So you're including two platforms now.

KH1 and 2 shipped more than any "Mario RPG".
On the other hand "Mario RPG" games actually shipped more than all the other KH released afterward.
Of course one can say all those games on GBA, DS, 3DS and PSP were spinoff but it's past so much time since KH1 & 2 that I'm not sure what to expect for KH3.

Certainly more than 2.5 million lol

 

[Sterok]

If that Kingdom Hearts 2 number is accurate, then I just realized Dragon Quest IX actually beat it (5.3 million). Wouldn't be shocked if DQXI beats KH3 as well.

I think the JRPG audience being split between Nintendo handhelds and Sony consoles hasn't helped the genre, as it's harder to hit blockbuster numbers with a new IP when exclusive. Hopefully multiplatform PS4/NX(/Steam) games are common and allow a bigger investment in games that can grow the genre.

 

[Celine]

Certainly more than 2.5 million lol

Yes, if I had to do a guess I would say KH3 will ship more than 2.50M (thus more than the average sales of "Mario RPG" games which is roughly 2.00-2.50M).

 

[theprodigy]

So you're including two platforms now.



Certainly more than 2.5 million lol

You know what, I'll give all the PS4 games (except Dragon Quest of course) sales on other consoles, I don't think it makes a difference.

(not sure if you noticed, but 3DS+NX is part of the Nintendo ecosystem like PS3/PSV/PS4 is the Sony one)

 

[Celine]

If that Kingdom Hearts 2 number is accurate, then I just realized Dragon Quest IX actually beat it (5.5 million). Wouldn't be shocked if DQXI beats KH3 as well.

Fixed.
KH2 was released a decade ago, market conditions changed greatly since then.
For example considering all the versions combined both KH1 and KH2 sold roughly 1.5-1.6 million in Japan.
Will KH3 sell half of that in the japanese market?

To me it's clear that the market that will make or break KH3 success is the american market which if you think is the opposite situation of DQXI.

 

[Mory Dunz]

PS4 has the biggest JRPG audience if you choose to ignore stuff that contradicts that

 

[Fdkn]

I think it's not about pokemon counting or not, as that's a really boring semantics argument. It's a rpg and its made in Japan, so that's it, even if it's radically different to the genre standards.

Looking at the numbers, what we can easily know is that most of the pokemon buyers, specially in the west and not looking at the neogaf enthusiast poster, don't buy any other jrpgs not named pokemon.

It's hard to call them a jrpg audience when they're not interested in buying any other games in the genre. They're mostly a pokemon audience.

It would be also hard to argue against the notion that those core buyers in the west that buy a variety of jrpgs in 3ds should have a decent overlap with console users, as someone interested in a portable KH is probably also interested in the next mainline entry, same reasoning with Tales of the Abyss 3D... and the Bravely series is derivative from FF in many ways. It's also hard to find a SMT fan that is not going to buy Persona 5. I guess my point is clear lol

My two cents.

 

[Mory Dunz]

pokemon isn't even radical imo.

It only gets called "radical" cause it got famous as eff. At the base it's a turn based battle sytem with a recruit system and bad grahpics.

Do we really know what the pokemon audience buys and doesn't? With numbers that large, bits of pieces of the whole 15 or so million could be buying whatever. Does the random girl with a PS4 who's looking forward to KH3 have a 3DS in the back with X & Y? I dunno. But why not? One scenario doesn't strike me as much more unreasonable than another.

Games like SMT, Persona, etc sell less in general so their core audience makes up a larger % of the whole. Therefore the core audience is more vocal than a game like pokemon. But if you're comparing core audiences, does Pokemon's core cross buy other games like FFVX or SMT?
GAF generally seems to. (at least when I see "what are you getting in 2016" threads, etc)

 

[Malakai]

Western sales would of cratered.



A lot of it has to simply do with brand names:
3DS has Dragon Quest, Fire Emblem, SMT, Mario and Luigi and Bravely Default though thats dead right now.

PS4 has Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales(not what it once was though) and Star Ocean.

To claim 3DS has the biggest jrpg audience globally is wrong. The two platforms cater to different segments and the PS4 has the biggest IPs if we are talking about the traditional kind.

I think Pokemon alone outsold Dragon Quest, Persona, Ni No Kuni, Tales and Star Ocean combined....

 

[Orgen]

Psycho, everybody knows that the expression you were trying to find was "traditional PS2 JRPG" so that's why you don't include Pokemon and a lot of other 3DS RPG to fit your criteria. I'm even surprised you didn't include yakuza in your traditional JRPG with global appeal list ;D

And yeah, now the west only buys Pokemon games and no other RPG on 3DS. That's why in the west bravely default and yokai (not saying anything about the Mario RPG games because "lol it doesn't count") sold almost one million copies and Fire emblem Fates (the game that is not an JRPG unlike Bloodborne) almost 1.5 million. We'll see how many of these traditional "JRPG with global appeal" will sell these numbers in the west for PS4.

The lengths that some of you will go... My god!

 

[Fdkn]

pokemon isn't even radical imo.

It only gets called "radical" cause it got famous as eff. At the base it's a turn based battle sytem with a recruit system and bad grahpics.

Do we really know what the pokemon audience buys and doesn't?

My reasoning is that in the west a single pokemon entry sells more than every 3ds jrpg released in 3-4 years combined (or even more if someone checks the numbers and dates lol)

It's not crazy to reach the conclussion that a big % of pokemon buyers are not buying the other jrpgs because the difference is too big.

About the radical thing... how many rpgs have you seen where people doesn't care that the story is terribad and recycled during decades? I think that's a radical difference in the standards people have about pokemon vs every other jrpg

 

[Mory Dunz]

My reasoning is that in the west a single pokemon entry sells more than every 3ds jrpg released in 3-4 years combined (or even more if someone checks the numbers and dates lol)

It's not crazy to reach the conclussion that a big % of pokemon buyers are not buying the other jrpgs because the difference is too big.

Yeah, definitely.
I'm saying that because the overall sales are so large, there could be pocket of 1-2 million more "hardcore" who do infact buy pokemon along with the Bravely's, SMT, M&L, etc.

And that 1-2m hardcore who buys other games would basically be comparable with any other JRPG currently.

Obviously I don't know for sure if it exists. (Places like GAF lead me to believe that group does exist though) but again I don't see that scenario as much more unreasonable than the opposite being true (i.e. pokemon's total audience almost being completely totally separate from JRPGs in terms of buying practices.)