BishopLamont
Banned
Do you want me to say DQIX?
Being last-gen was never a problem for main DQ releases.
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Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2014 (Sep 15 - Sep 21)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Of course it will be on the PS4, it's just gonna be multiplatform
Pennywise83
Banned
It might be. It might also be reasonable to assume that SQEX is expecting to keep a specific commercial status for its top IP in Japan, at least from a traditional project (that is, a console offline jRPG). I don't think it's not reasonable to expect SQEX wanting to maintain a certain sale threshold for such a game; 4m+ of course is a lot and probably hard to reach in the current market with a traditional business model, but 3-3.5m seems to be a target SQEX might want to pursue if the title is a PS4 or a 3DS game. Would be investor happy to see the top IP of the company performing like half (or two third) of what it was able to do on DS, with obviously higher costs of development? The guy who told you that FG was promoted towards MH audience thinks not, but who knows
It might be. It might also be reasonable to assume that SQEX is expecting to keep a specific commercial status for its top IP in Japan, at least from a traditional project (that is, a console offline jRPG). I don't think it's not reasonable to expect SQEX wanting to maintain a certain sale threshold for such a game; 4m+ of course is a lot and probably hard to reach in the current market with a traditional business model, but 3-3.5m seems to be a target SQEX might want to pursue if the title is a PS4 or a 3DS game. Would be investor happy to see the top IP of the company performing like half (or two third) of what it was able to do on DS, with obviously higher costs of development? The guy who told you that FG was promoted towards MH audience thinks not, but who knows
Yeah I guess DQX was a terrible failure then. Since it's a DQ game on the Wii which couldn't even sell a million copies. The investors should probably ask Square Enix to cancel the franchise.
BishopLamont
Banned
I think if it was an MMO it'd be a harder guess, but since its single player, I think the choices become a bit more clear.
DQX wasn't a failure, but it was pretty messy in terms of releases, especially compared to previous DQ mainlines. I think they much prefer a PS2 style of support, where their mainlines are all on one dominating platform, eg. the PS4, except 3DS/mobile has to be accounted for in some way since they're dominating in their own ways too.
DQX was also messy because it was near/during the transitional period, and the lead platform Wii being basically dead, I think they'll have a far easier time this time around on how to manage the releases.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Hortensia looks quite nice. But the problem is I always wonder with these games when they're going to put annoying obstacles in my path to to try to get a payday.
I recall a kemco game where the first place on the map you can go to was a special dungeon you had to pay to enter
n3DS nhancements
Considering the fact that we're talking about a franchise where the previous two numbered installments totally surprised everyone with the business strategy, game format, and platform, I would certainly not say that the choices are more clear. Is the game going to be a full retail only title? Could it be episodic? Are there microtransactions? What sort of social aspects will the game have? Is it only one a single platform? Is it Japan only?
Without knowing anything about a game at all, it becomes completely meaningless to make informed speculation. That doesn't stop anyone from doing so, but it doesn't make for good debate.
Pennywise83
Banned
That's why I specified "traditional business model" and "offline jRPG". DQX generates revenues not only through the entry fee (the retail price) but also through subscriptions. And the fact that DQX is coming to basically every platform (Wii, Wii U, PC, smartphone, tablet and 3DS through streaming, and PS4) shows how investors weren't really pleased by its sales and its adoption rate after the free trial month, in my opinion. But the expectation for a traditional jRPG on console of course are higher.
BishopLamont
Banned
Isn't it basically confirmed as single player game or is that just speculation? They have FF for MMO, I think it'd be a smarter idea to make DQXI a single player only game, since the last one has dropped in terms of units sold. They have to get DQ back to its glory of 3M+ sales. If thats the case, the PS4 is pretty much guaranteed as being one of the platforms.
You're right though, we still don't know enough things about it and its pretty far off, but SE's support for PS4 shows its definitely not gonna be left out, only reason DQX was on Wii is because the PS3 was selling like crap compared to the Wii at the time they were choosing which platform to release on. This time it's far more clear which platforms will be still selling by the time it's gonna be released. They learnt their lesson with the Wii, what is selling now doesn't matter as much as what's still selling and active by the time it releases.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Yeah, none of them bar 3ds.
BishopLamont
Banned
You don't think the PS4 will be selling?
Sir_Crocodile
Member
sub 20k, sure.
BishopLamont
Banned
As long as it's built enough of a userbase and is active, that is people are still buying it for new games, which was not the case for the Wii when DQX released. Demographics is also another factor, the Wii isn't as suitable as the PS4 for JRPGs.
Raw weekly numbers in Japan isn't as important as it use to be, otherwise the PS4 would be having no future support. The western market is too big to ignore now, and that has a direct affect on PS4's support and it's obvious the PS4 will be selling for a long time in the west.
Pokemon presumably.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Which is exactly where Dragon Quest won't be selling
It is confirmed that it won't be a MMO, and will be a single player RPG. But that doesn't tell us anything about a possible business model they have. There are so many ways to sell something these days, even a RPG. It's worth noting that DQIX is also a single player RPG, but when they announced it they were willing to play around with the concept of it being an action RPG to better support optional multiplayer. In the end they dropped that but kept the multiplayer option.
One thing the last 8 years have shown us is that Horii is no longer afraid to experiment with Dragon Quest. Even numbered ones. Maybe he's getting old and wants to try as many things as possible before he retires. Maybe he's a sell out. Whatever the case is, the time where people could safely predict what is or isn't DQ is long over. So I think making a statement like "Square Enix expects 3.5 million sales from DQXI if it's on the PS4" is completely pointless in absence of... any actual information about the business plan at all.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Is there any specific reason why the game couldn't launch for say PS4/WiiU/X1? Unless they are targeting very high quality graphics (making the WiiU not a factor)I don't necessarily feel like having a multiplat on all 3 systems would be a bad idea. Opens up much more potential when marketing the game worldwide that will be lost on the 3DS. Everything that has been stated so far makes it seem like it's pretty much a sure bet that the game will be on the PS4. Also, I don't really feel like the fact that DQ will return to Sony systems means the 3DS or w/e nintendo's next system is will not get relevant DQ titles which seems to be the assumption people are making going forth. With all the talk about DQ also not necessarily staying exclusive to w/e given system I think multiplat may be a possibility.
Dragon Quest is an "everyone" game with a strong youth/nostalgia slant. It's demographics actually align more with Nintendo's own games than the usual big PS franchises (Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Gran Turismo, etc).
Demographics is another area where 3DS makes far more sense for DQ than any other current system. Even PS3 included.
BishopLamont
Banned
DQ doesn't exactly fall in the cartoony style, not as much as Pokemon does. The comparison doesn't make much sense.
PS4 selling well in the west has a direct affect on its support in Japan, otherwise practically all third parties wouldn't be supporting it.
Ok if we take out PS4, what do we have left realistically? 3DS and mobile. For a traditional single player only game, which is what DQ has been bar the last two mainlines, DS one being closest to a traditional single player only game, sold well, whereas DQX didn't do quite as well being an MMO. Whatever the business model maybe, the PS4 will be likely the home of traditional RPG's largely due to SE's support with their other mainline games. I just don't see a case where PS4 won't be one of the platforms.
I think DQ demo aligns more with FF/KH/Tales fanbase more than Nintendo's demo. Nintendo just isn't as strong as they use to be, if userbase is the only thing that matters, then the DS would have received DQX instead of the Wii. How active a console when DQ releases matters the most I think, and with their support of the PS4, I think they have more faith in DQ selling on a Sony platform, more than a Nintendo one. Not to say the 3DS won't be selling, I think both platforms have enough chance as each other to recieve DQ, but I think SE has more faith in the PS4 than they do with the 3DS two or years from now, since by that time Nintendo would have switched support to their new consoles, meaning the active fanbase on the 3DS won't be as high as the PS4.sörine;132299219 said:
Pennywise83
Banned
That's why I said that "if DQXI will be an offline traditional jRPG on PS4, expecting 3-3.5m seems reasonable to me". Of course, there are many business models that can be implemented, but unless it's on smartphone and / or PC, how much different from DQIX (and previous entries) DQXI business model might be if on a traditional console and not a MMORPG? Do you think SQEX will pursue a F2P model? Or they will experiment with micro-transactions even with a full-price retail release? In such a case, will this be enough to offset the lost of, let's say, one million purchasers? I think this is worth a discussion.
1st Course
Member
Horii saying he want the next DQ to be VIII-like and to be on "big screen" make me think it's pretty much guaranteed at this point.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Despite enix getting a huge comic book guy to do the design art, and the recent games being cel shaded? How is it not cartoony, it's pretty much the epitomy of cartoony
Some of those franchises are expected to sell well outside of Japan and some of them are also being released on Vita, lowering the risk.
Whereas this would be releasing a big budget game expected to sell well in only one territory on one platform that has horrible hardware sales and hoping that the game would drive sales of the platform.
Which it might, it's DQ after all. But the point is that it would have to because the base wouldn't be there otherwise.
BishopLamont
Banned
I'm not saying it isn't cartoony, I'm saying its not just cartoony like Pokemon, it also has a realistically art and feel to it also.
Yes DQ is mainly aimed at Japan, but I think SE will be trying to push it more to the west this time around and I think the PS4 will be a better bet for this to work out well. They've been localising a ton of DQ games for the west lately, far more than they have previous gens.
I read "cartoony" as "non photorealistic".
Like whether something looks like Mario, Borderlands, RIME, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, or even just Plants vs. Zombies, the usual divide is between games that try to look like reality or a somewhat stylized reality and games that don't at all (non-photorealistic).
Now, I think as time goes on this distinction is less notable than it was since there a lot of core oriented games have adopted more stylized art as opposed to the days of yore where it was almost more of a "this is for kids/families", "this is not for kids/families" split.
Games like Borderlands for example sell incredibly well (10+ million copies) and look cartoonish despite appealing primarily to the 18-35 set and being a violent M rated shooter with blood and gore.
In this example, it would seem to largely be a way to ask "What is the best selling JRPG in the West that isn't Final Fantasy or Dark Souls." It would be true that on consoles there really aren't any that do well, and we have seen games that fit this description succeed on handhelds.
However, I think this is also a somewhat odd lens to look at this through. It's not taking into account other non-photorealistic games that do well for one, including RPGs like Borderlands and Diablo, or the actual context of what the art looks like, which obviously hugely varies in non-photorealistic. It also focuses heavily on the art instead of analyzing the other aspects of the product that are likely to impact the game like demographics, relevance of the brand in various regions, core gameplay, extended functionality, and value proposition.
So, I guess my thought process is that I feel Pokemon is the right answer to that question, and art is certainly part of what affects Dragon Quest sales, but I don't think that's actually the logical way to keystone an argument of where the game should go regardless of which platform you think that should be.
isn't it possible square could do dq11 for ps4 and the new dragon quest monsters game could be for 3ds to satisfy that crowd which possibly could lead to a win-win for them rather than splitting resources on multiple platforms for one game.
3ds gets bravely default, ff explorers and dqm
ps4 gets ffxv, dq11 and kh3
everyone is happy
3ds gets bravely default, ff explorers and dqm
ps4 gets ffxv, dq11 and kh3
everyone is happy
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Chances are it's going to be for 3DS. DQXI that is.
It is the only platform that makes any sense for it at this point.
It is the only platform that makes any sense for it at this point.
I'm confused. I'm not arguing against the likelihood of the game being on PS4. I'm not sure what this response has to do with anything I have been saying so far. I was arguing against the assumption that S-E's sales expectations for the game is obvious in any way right now, based on what we know about the game.
There are many business options available to selling pretty much anything these days, on any platform. The markets are already rapidly evolving in terms of how publishers interact with consumers and the concepts of games as products versus games as services. Let's not forget that DQXI has not a game they are prepared to announce at the moment, and the game is possibly at least two years away from release. That's a really long time.
- Is DQXI going to be on a single platform?
- Will DQXI be a single product or part of an extended service?
- Is it likely for the series to completely ditch the social hooks introduced since DQIX?
- If not how will they expand on this?
- Can these aspects be monetized?
Without knowing the answer to these questions, I don't think we really know anything about the game at all, in terms of having an informed opinion when speculating about the sales expectation of the title.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Not seeing it. I see no realism in the art, and no realism in the feel of the franchise. It's always felt like a whimsical adventure series to me which wouldn't be out of place in a shonen manga (and indeed wasn't with dai no daiboken back in the day).
I mean where is the realism in either art or feel with their most famous monster - the slime.
What has SE done to make you think they'd bother pushing it in the west?
Yeah, 3DS for sure and a PS4 (maybe even WiiU) port down the road is the safest bet. I wish it was PS4 only tho, oh well.
BishopLamont
Banned
If its not an MMO, then wouldn't selling millions be the likely expectation for SE?
I think art has little to do with why DQ games, its the fact that its as traditional as you can get when it comes to RPG's, I think thats a good reason why DQX didn't sell as much, not just because its an MMO. Any DQ mainline games could have sold just as well with a realistic looking artstyle, its the gameplay that matters the most in the end.
Pokemon is a JRPG but it didn't do much to help sell or help garner more support for other JRPGs on its consoles, whereas FF and Tales comprises of the same demo, people didn't buy a DS because of Pokemon to get other JRPGS, but you can bet people bought the PS3 for FF and other JRPGs. In this sense DQ aligns more with this demo than the Pokemon demo imo.
Why are you arguing demographics and then jumping to installed base and sales?
Wii made sense for DQX because it had both userbase and demographics on it's side. And it ended up being the best selling MMO ever in Japan at 650k, nearly triple what FFXI managed on PS2 or FFXIV on PS3. I don't think it was an unwise decision really given how the game performed, Wii was dead but there were still 12-13 million of them out there.
The console JRPG in recent years that came closest to DQ in terms of demographic target was probably Ni No Kuni. And we all know how that sold.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Maybe they will pull a Ninokuni, so you don't really have to worry about it being ugly for PS4 standards.
I think DQXI is skipping the 3DS though, it's a 2016 game, let's not forget that.
isn't it possible square could do dq11 for ps4 and the new dragon quest monsters game could be for 3ds to satisfy that crowd which possibly could lead to a win-win for them rather than splitting resources on multiple platforms for one game.
3ds gets bravely default, ff explorers and dqm
ps4 gets ffxv, dq11 and kh3
everyone is happy
exactly
I'd imagine that any social elements in DQXI will take their cue from DQX's tavern system, where players can rent another player out as a party member. So, in the case of a singleplayer game it would work like this: Player A saves in the church and turns off their console, Player B can then recruit Player A's character and gain experience and gold, When Player A loads their save they gain experience and money.
This way you could keep the game singleplayer while still having some social element that benefits the player.
This way you could keep the game singleplayer while still having some social element that benefits the player.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
You think DQ would sell as well if it was grimdark?
Aeriscloud
Banned
isn't it possible square could do dq11 for ps4 and the new dragon quest monsters game could be for 3ds to satisfy that crowd which possibly could lead to a win-win for them rather than splitting resources on multiple platforms for one game.
3ds gets bravely default, ff explorers and dqm
ps4 gets ffxv, dq11 and kh3
everyone is happy
No, we are not.
BishopLamont
Banned
I was using install base to show why a big userbase doesn't neccessary means the JRPG demo will be there even if a big JRPG exist on it, eg. Pokemon.sörine;132302546 said:
DQX wasn't a failure on the Wii, but because there was so many ports, which would lower profits just because of the cost to do so, would have made SE think twice about where DQ will go. I think they rather minimize the number of ports as much as possible. I don't think Ninokuni is a good example because it was released on the DS first, the PS3 was a late port. IIRC the DS version didn't perform very well either, it was overshipped and took awhile to sell its initial shipment.
Would FF sell as well if it was grimdark? DQ would still sell well if it was more realistic looking, as long as the main theme and story is there. There's a point where changing it too much will affect how the game is overall, there are limits. My main point is that people buy DQ because its traditional in its gameplay and story, how realistic or cartoony it looks doesn't matter as much.
I'm not even sure what we're talking about anymore. Sometimes I wonder if people talking about something actually know what they're talking about at all.
That goes entirely against what the Square Enix producer himself has said about the future of Dragon Quest titles.
That goes entirely against what the Square Enix producer himself has said about the future of Dragon Quest titles.
Yea it sounds like the age of DQ being only on the most popular platform in Japan is nearing its end.
They've pretty clearly been following through on the multiplatform strategy too.
DQX: PC, Wii, Wii U, 3DS, iOS, Android, proposed for PS4
DQ1-8: All being ported to mobile, have been remade in the past.
DQH: PS3/PS4 cross-gen.
The other spin-offs have also been going through a variety of platforms ranging from browser to iOS/Android to 3DS.
DQX: PC, Wii, Wii U, 3DS, iOS, Android, proposed for PS4
DQ1-8: All being ported to mobile, have been remade in the past.
DQH: PS3/PS4 cross-gen.
The other spin-offs have also been going through a variety of platforms ranging from browser to iOS/Android to 3DS.
I'd like to hear Aeana chime in on Dragon Quest's demographics. Actually her insight would be nice on this whole issue of userbase, demographics and creator comments.
BishopLamont
Banned
Minimizing the number of ports doesn't mean making it exclusive, it means releasing as little ports as possible while supporting as many platforms that makes sense, the ones that will likely sell to the DQ fanbase. Its maximizing profits while not leaving out any relevant platform and excluding irrelevant ones.
Like releasing it for the PS4 that will likely contain the PS3 fanbase in the future, rather than releasing for both platforms. You cover as much space as possible with 1 release rather than 2.
Well, when the issue is selling to existing "fanbases", it makes me worry about the future of game consoles in Japan, if neither PlayStation nor Nintendo nor Xbox consoles are bringing in new players to the fanbases, let alone to console gaming in general, then what use are the new machines if all those machines do is attract the same people as before, then costs go up for not much benefit for the game except to look better for those same people? I guess that's why things such as FF's going multiplatform happened, not just because the series is known in the West, but because if costs go up to make the games, they can't just sell to the same people over and over. Unless they're okay with budgeting their game's development accordingly I suppose. Or, if they find ways to make more money off of the same people?
IAmRandom31
Banned
It gives me great pleasure that people can say this and be serious about it.
Possibly that Nintendo's exclusive contract is out? Or none never existed and devs just despised the PS3's architecture.
God, please let Monster Hunter return to the Playstation CONSOLE space again. Would be able to die happy.
BishopLamont
Banned
Well people don't stay on lastgen consoles forever, there's a point where every fan for every game moves on. The trick is finding out where ur fanbase is, how big is that fanbase still, and in general just what is gonna make you the most money.Well, when the issue is selling to existing "fanbases", it makes me worry about the future of game consoles in Japan, if neither PlayStation nor Nintendo nor Xbox consoles are bringing in new players to the fanbases, let alone to console gaming in general, then what use are the new machines if all those machines do is attract the same people as before, then costs go up for not much benefit for the game except to look better for those same people? I guess that's why things such as FF's going multiplatform happened, not just because the series is known in the West, but because if costs go up to make the games, they can't just sell to the same people over and over. Unless they're okay with budgeting their game's development accordingly I suppose. Or, if they find ways to make more money off of the same people?
If you're not increasing profit through number of fans or price in the game, the business model is the best way to gain profit, which is why duckroll was focusing on it before.
For example the DQ fanbase doesn't fluctuate much with every mainline release, which shows how dedicated fans are but at the same time its not bringing in new fans, SE wanted to capitalize off this by making DQX with a MMO subscription based business model. Rarely do games maintain or increase their number of fans from switching to this business model, but your profits increase through these dedicated fans paying every month. DQX loss a ton of fans, but these fans were paying more. I think DQXI switching to traditional rather than MMO shows SE aren't happy that they lost so many fans, despite each of them being more valuable then the fans they had before.
It'll be interesting to see what they do with DQXI and what they prioritize more with this franchise.
I won´t make any prediction in this matter but what exactly will change in Japan by 2016 to make 3DS unviable just by virtue of the release date? A deal, overall strategy of the company and betting on synergy effects are at least somewhat understandable possibilities, but the date alone is really silly in my opinion.
From now till 2016 alone the 3DS will sell considerably more units than PS4 even with potential FF15 and KH releases by then in Japan, which in fact is DQs main market. It´s also silly to consider all the userbase that got the system earlier invalid/vanishes. Sure there is the possibility of a 3DS successor by then, but that didn´t seem to be a problem with DQ7 on PSX which was launched after PS2, in fact it was the best selling Dragon Quest game since DQ3 until DQ9 on NDS sold more by quite a big margin.
You honestly think DQXI will be exclusive to the PS4? Even with SE going multiplatform with their other two flagship franchise? And with Horii expressing interest in the series going multi?
also mohu would be better on the playsation handheld space. (vita + xperia)
huntan on the toilet is awesome on the 3ds.
Eh when did Horii express interests in going multi? Doubt he cares that much, this comment would be made by a SE producer.
Horii wants to realize the game for a home console and they probably choose the PS4 because it's the home console that will be relevant 2 years from now.
I still think a NinoKuni like release makes the most sense commercially. Getting +3 million sales first on 3DS and following with a expanded home console HD adaptation.