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[Vena]

Yes, in no world is selling 90% of your shipment *not a good thing*. Its one platform, selling almost an entire shipment in two days. So unless the retailers were super skittish (and I see no reason for them to have been such and ordered like 20k copies) this was a realistic sell-through to a realistic shipment which will now see a secondary shipment. The pre-orders weren't through the roof but it's met at least initial expectations. So unless we open next week with 19k or some other super low number, I think the title has every reason to be considered "doing well".

Xanadu is fine; the actual interesting point will be YNK with its multiple SKUs and 70-50% performance to similar pre-order expectations as Xanadu (though higher if you count all of the SKUs, but seemingly also seeing lower performance per SKU).

totally true, in Japan, and to me it makes no sense :\
the only time they actually increased the value of their offer (the Wii U Party bundle back in the day) they had a very solid Christmas period. Last year December was disappointing. Let's see how the market will react this time around, considering how since Splatoon launch, the console is up YoY...

Your answer is margins.

Due to limited economies of scale (dead console barely moving any hardware, and barely selling through initial expectations from years ago), dead fabrication node and advancements (so no die shrinks = no cheaper production), etc, WiiU hasn't been getting cheaper to produce by any meaningful amount.

The WiiU is in lame duck mode, don't expect anything from it other than a potential Splatoon bundle for the holidays. Or a Splatoon/SMM bundle with a minor, soft-price cut.

 

[hiska-kun]

No point in losing money when you have no software to really sell or licenses to reap from. WiiU is, as it stands, in no position to try and increase its market share for what little software it has remaining. With how little (big) software Nintendo has lined up for the rest of the year and then some, they're going to be skating on razor thin profits if at all.

What does need a price drop is the N3DS. I'd imagine its updated hardware line/node will allow for some cutting down on price within a year or so of start of production, so coming up on this holiday.

But the bundle value is reducing everytime more and more, and the price is just increasing. They could try to release a Value Bundle as the 2013. Or at least stop the increases and set it at ¥30.000.

December 2012 Launch
Wii U Premium - ¥30.000

November 2013
Wii U Family Value Bundle - ¥31.148
Includes (2 games):
- New Super Mario Bros Wii
- Wii Party U
- Wii Remote Plus + Sensor Bar
- 30 Days Karaoke

November 2014
Wii U Mario Kart 8 Set - ¥ 32.800
Includes (1 game):
- Mario Kart 8
- Wii Remote Plus + Sensor Bar

September 2015
Wii U Super Mario Maker Set - ¥33.000
Includes (1 game):
- Super Mario Maker + Booklet

*All prices without taxes

Is the normal premium set still available in stores? It's still available on Amazon.jp from what I see (

Spoiler

unless google translate is failing me

)

Yes, the normal Premium Set without game is still being sold for ¥30.000
Still the Launch price.

 

[FreedomFighter]

if it was like this :

13./16. [3DS] Minecraft: <ADV> {2015.03.19} (¥2.592) - 10.770 / 343.434 (+31%)


you could see every weeks ton of hooray posts, graphs and so on

This comes off as being very thirst for Vita praise. Not to mention, there are posts every week pointing out Minecraft's legs.

Minecraft is a proven franchise already, Splatoon is a new, fresh hit on a struggling home console that came out of nowhere and many on GAF had very low expectations (which have since been shattered). Splatoon performance is just more exciting than Minecraft's to most. Nothing to be salty over really.

 

[hiska-kun]

Bold prediction:

If Nintendo release a new Wii U Bundle next year, it will cost ¥34.280 and it will exclude the Gamepad.

I mean, that's what they're doing every year.

 

[Vena]

Bold prediction:

If Nintendo release a new Bundle next year, it will cost ¥34.280 and it will exclude the Gamepad.

I mean, that's what are they doing every year.

Nah it *just* includes the Gamepad. No console.

 

[L~A]

A 90% sell-through in the first 2 days guarantees (at least) a second shipment and probably beats retailers expectations.

No need to downplay the performance of the title for now because you don't know the numbers, you don't know Falcom's expectations and you're throwing assumptions with no base at all (Why do you think Falcom is trying to attract Atlus fanbase with this title? uh?)

It's not surprising the price keeps increasing (or rather, is not dropping).

Nintendo is well aware the Wii U isn't going anywhere, that a price drop would only lead to a temporary spike in sales. It's not going to make third-parties flock to it, not when they were dropping it even before it came out. And its reputation is too bad for players to start finding it attractive, even if its gets several great games like Xeno X or #FE.

So what can they do? Ride the wave all the way until the next platform and avoid losing as much money as possible in the mean time (while not providing games for current owners, who need to be satisfied). Right now, they're in a bit of pickle, because the 3DS is down year on year, and will be replaced next year. But they have to make sure their profits remains high enough, and avoid the brutal transition from last gen.

Basically, they have no choice to make as much money from the Wii U as possible. They know some people will buy the SMM Pack even if the price was up compared to previous bundles, so might as well get some extra bucks from them.

Problem is, I don't think they've been able to lower production costs enough for a price drop. From my understanding, one of the reasons they didn't lose much money because of the Wii U in the past FY was because they had booked off the production cost in the previous FY (at least, that's what I remember from one of the investors meetings).

The fantastic value of the 2013 bundle was when Nintendo still somewhat believed in their console. Their 2014 MK8 bundle was when Nintendo realised there was no saving the Wii U.

 

[Pennywise83]

This comes off as being very thirst for Vita praise. Not to mention, there are posts every week pointing out Minecraft's legs.

Minecraft is a proven franchise already, Splatoon is a new, fresh hit on a struggling home console that came out of nowhere and many on GAF had very low expectations (which have since been shattered). Splatoon performance is just more exciting than Minecraft's to most. Nothing to be salty over really.

Also worth noticing that Splatoon increased Wii U weekly baseline, while Minecraft did not - at most it kept the weekly baseline on the same level - which is, in my opinion, surprising since people talk about how Minecraft is selling to kids - so perhaps kids already had a PSV?

 

[FreedomFighter]

Bold prediction:

If Nintendo release a new Wii U Bundle next year, it will cost ¥34.280 and it will exclude the Gamepad.

I mean, that's what they're doing every year.

I can't really see that happening. Especially with Mario Maker out now. They'll be pushing Starfox Zero next year too. Gamepad is essential.

 

[Vena]

I can't really see that happening. Especially with Mario Maker out now. They'll be pushing Starfox Zero next year too. Gamepad is essential.

He's joking.

 

[vinnygambini]

He's joking.

But how do you know?

 

[Vena]

But how do you know?

Because the real deal is going to be the bundle with the Wii and Gamepad (and #FE of course). It will go on to sell millions.

 

[vinnygambini]

Because the real deal is going to be the bundle with the Wii and Gamepad (and #FE of course). It will go on to sell millions.

Nintendo are geniuses.

 

[Aostia]

Nah it *just* includes the Gamepad. No console.

Smart, you sell an accessory for a 12 millions install base!

 

[1st Course]

But the bundle value is reducing everytime more and more, and the price is just increasing. They could try to release a Value Bundle as the 2013. Or at least stop the increases and set it at ¥30.000.

December 2012 Launch
Wii U Premium - ¥30.000

November 2013
Wii U Family Value Bundle - ¥31.148
Includes (2 games):
- New Super Mario Bros Wii
- Wii Party U
- Wii Remote Plus + Sensor Bar
- 30 Days Karaoke

November 2014
Wii U Mario Kart 8 Set - ¥ 32.800
Includes (1 game):
- Mario Kart 8
- Wii Remote Plus + Sensor Bar

September 2015
Wii U Super Mario Maker Set - ¥33.000
Includes (1 game):
- Super Mario Maker + Booklet

*All prices without taxes



Yes, the normal Premium Set without game is still being sold for ¥30.000
Still the Launch price.

So cheapest current option is ~$300 after taxes. Ridiculous that the console is still this expensive after 3 years. PS3 was actually cheaper at the same point in its life ( ¥29,980 in September 2009 after price-cut)

 

[Vena]

So cheapest current option is ~$300 after taxes. Ridiculous that the console is still this expensive after 3 years. PS3 was actually cheaper at the same point in its life ( ¥29,980 in September 2009 after price-cut)

PS3 was losing hundreds of dollars for years per sale.

 

[KillerMan91]

Pricing of WiiU has definitely been weird. It has had zero actual price drops if you count Basic edition existing. Just compare this to GameCube that had numerous price drops across its life. Even equally failed system like Vita has had one proper price cut. Gamepad really fucked up WiiU.

 

[Aostia]

N is also fighting the concept of avoiding launch purchases of their hardware that the sudden 3ds price cut could have created among customers

 

[kuroneko0509]

About that first Nintendo-DeNA mobile game: Expect the unexpected, and soon.

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

 

[Dystify]

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

Who's this guy?

Edit: Saw his twitter profile. Is he credible though?

 

[Aostia]

Who's this guy?

Edit: Saw his twitter profile. Is he credible though?

Usually, yes

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

He's the guy who live-translates all the Nintendo investor keynotes

 

[Aostia]

He's the guy who live-translates all the Nintendo investor keynotes

I wonder if he received an invitation...

 

[Mory Dunz]

Nah it *just* includes the Gamepad. No console.

What console?


EDIT:
DeNa?
Direct maybe?

 

[Pennywise83]

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

Really curious to see what comes out. My bets are on: Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Life and Mario.

 

[kuroneko0509]

I wonder if he received an invitation...

most likely yes

 

[Vena]

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

Unexpected, eh? #FE!

 

[Aostia]

Unexpected, eh? #FE!

Captain rainbow! !!

 

[Vena]

Capitan rainbow! !!

They want a good, very successful product to be the face of their mobile initiative.

 

[Memento]

What are we expecting for PS4 next week? 40-50k?

 

[1st Course]

Really curious to see what comes out. My bets are on: Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Life and Mario.

Could be Picross

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1101740

mobile stuff are even mentioned in the trademark.

 

[Pennywise83]

They want a good, very successful product to be the face of their mobile initiative.

True, but also remember how the biggest mobile IPs are all new and were unproven at the beginning: Angry Birds, Puzzle & Dragons, MonsterStrike, White Cat Project, Clash of Clans, Candy Crush Saga.

 

[ZhugeEX]

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

It makes sense. After all it's almost holiday 2015 and I'd imagine they want to announce the game before investors meeting at end of this month.

Edit: Saw his twitter profile. Is he credible though?

100% Yes.

 

[Darius]

yea certain people always have high expectations for ps titles so they can say it didn't do that great and vice versa for nintendo titles that it is probably best to just ignore them at this point. it is actually amazing to see the lengths they go either way to prove they are right.... sometimes it doesn't matter if the publisher thinks it is a success and continues to make games for that platform they continue to make arguments for how it could be better on another platform!

About what high expectations are you talking about? When it comes to PSV starting with 200-300k a game gets celebrated as a smashing hit around here, and most of the time starting with 100k a game is highlighted as a success. The actual ceiling when it comes to lifetime software sales on either PS4 and PSV are ridiculously low so far in Japan.

 

[Aostia]

most likely yes

I want to see it!!! I bet there are interesting logos on it!!!

 

[Nirolak]

Who's this guy?

Edit: Saw his twitter profile. Is he credible though?

He's one of the foremost mobile/social game analysts in Japan and would have strong connections at companies like DeNA.

 

[horuhe]

Who's this guy?

Edit: Saw his twitter profile. Is he credible though?

CEO from Kantan Games. As far as I know, he recently joined NeoGAF. So maybe, we could see him around here. He's really reliable.

 

[dakkumauji]

https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/649997227297865728
I guess..... next week?

so a revival of a forgotten nintendo franchise since doing that on mobile seems all the rage these days?

 

[Takao]

so a revival of a forgotten nintendo franchise since doing that on mobile seems all the rage these days?

"Remember Advanced Wars?"

 

[Darius]

N is also fighting the concept of avoiding launch purchases of their hardware that the sudden 3ds price cut could have created among customers

Yes, that´s something that had a pretty bad impact on consumers expectations. While different this also reminds me of the close launch of NSMB2 for 3DS and NSMBU a few months later.

 

[Nirolak]

So Monster Hunter Explore is sitting at 127 on iOS, never having gotten much above 100.

Final Fantasy Grandmasters debuted at around 36 and is at 26 right now. Sega's pirate mobile game had a similar debut.

You can get a sense of publishers who do and don't seem to get the mobile market.

 

[L~A]

Could be Picross

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1101740

mobile stuff are even mentioned in the trademark.

Something I already said in the thread linked (and not specifically targeting you or anything, your post simply reminded me of that):

- how do we know this trademark is for a mobile game?
- why would that random mobile game have anything to do with Nintendo's mobile game?
- why would Nintendo use that name instead of Picross (they do own that trademark... or at least, they're allowed to use it at will)? Would make more sense to use a know trademark instead of some random name that's awfully close to a competitor's product. Would be real slimy for Nintendo to launch a Picross game with that name, actually.

And besides, a Picross game on mobile is of the least surprising things Nintendo could do, to be honest.

 

[Nirolak]

I feel Picross is unlikely as it would assuredly be a poor performer, and that's the absolute last thing Nintendo wants for their first mobile game.

 

[Pennywise83]

So Monster Hunter Explore is sitting at 127 on iOS, never having gotten much above 100.

Final Fantasy Grandmasters debuted at around 36 and is at 26 right now. Sega's pirate mobile game had a similar debut.

You can get a sense of publishers who do and don't seem to get the mobile market.

Why do you think Capcom is not getting the mobile market, and why is not MH Explore attracting mobile users in your opinion?

 

[Edge_Maverick]

So Monster Hunter Explore is sitting at 127 on iOS, never having gotten much above 100.

Final Fantasy Grandmasters debuted at around 36 and is at 26 right now. Sega's pirate mobile game had a similar debut.

You can get a sense of publishers who do and don't seem to get the mobile market.

I have the feeling that FF Brave Exvius will be a hit.

 

[Nirolak]

Why do you think Capcom is not getting the mobile market, and why is not MH Explore attracting mobile users in your opinion?

Ha, well this is unfortunate, but the download count and reviews appear quite good, so I think the monetization model isn't evil enough.

Pokemon Shuffle has a similar issue in that I can't imagine why anyone would actually buy anything in that game since it's pretty much fine without spending a dime.

I'm guessing the issue is they don't actually have many long term mobile staff that understand the market given they're a console company and are hiring mostly new grads. Sometimes it makes a lot of sense to go out and get experts.

Edit: Okay looking the reviews have went down somewhat, but not to a ridiculous degree given where the franchise is coming from and how that usually skews the first few patches worth of reviews.

 

[Takao]

So Monster Hunter Explore is sitting at 127 on iOS, never having gotten much above 100.

Has to be disappointing given the game's 2+ year development cycle.

 

[Xbro]

"Remember Advanced Wars?"

Nintendo sure doesn't.

 

[Nirolak]

Has to be disappointing given the game's 2+ year development cycle.

It's a bit better on Google Play at 54 right now, but I'm not 100% convinced that isn't a similar amount of grossing revenue given Android.

Their best bet is that if people actually like it enough to keep playing, they should try to slow roll in things that are good monetizers for highly engaged players the same way a more PC oriented f2p game (MOBA, TCG, shooter) tries to monetize over time.

It's harder with mobile though since people don't necessarily sit all day playing the game the way they do with the others.

 

[1st Course]

Something I already said in the thread linked (and not specifically targeting you or anything, your post simply reminded me of that):

- how do we know this trademark is for a mobile game?
- why would that random mobile game have anything to do with Nintendo's mobile game?
- why would Nintendo use that name instead of Picross (they do own that trademark... or at least, they're allowed to use it at will)? Would make more sense to use a know trademark instead of some random name that's awfully close to a competitor's product. Would be real slimy for Nintendo to launch a Picross game with that name, actually.

And besides, a Picross game on mobile is of the least surprising things Nintendo could do, to be honest.

Well the trademark has terms like "mobile", "phone" and "game" mentioned several times. Safe to assume it's a trademark for a mobile game I think.

a cellular phone game program, an electronic application machinery and parts, mobile phone, mobile phone parts and accessories, mobile phone strap

a mobile phone provides a game to be carried out using by the communication, providing a game to be performed by using the communication, providing a game for home video game machine, a portable providing iodine LCD screen game machine game, the provision of commercial video game machine for games, providing a mobile phone for the game, providing a game that perform through a telecommunication line,

As to why they didn't use the already existent Picross trademark that is indeed strange. The trademark could be just a filler trademark for all we know. Picross doesn't seems like an IP that could be monetized very well (never played one, just going off by what I see from vidoes/pics)

 

[Nirolak]

Picross would be an appropriate mobile release for around 2009 when things like the first Angry Birds and Where's My Water were the top mobile games.

It'd be pretty crazy to launch as a flagship starting title for Nintendo in 2015. I could certainly see it as a game they release later on in the process (maybe as their third or fourth title) when expectations are at "Well this is just another game for their mobile catalog." more easily.