Media Create Sales: Week 47, 2014 (Nov 17 - Nov 23)

Aug 26, 2005
4,504
0
0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2014

[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 817,296
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 188,734
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 119,636
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 861,088
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 106,977
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2,117,914
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 213,841
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 79,408
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
By looking at the latest 3DS eShop chart (from Japanese3DS):

01./01. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire
02./02. Pokémon Omega Ruby
03./05. Puchikon No. 3: SMILE BASIC
04./03. Kirby Fighters Z
05./07. Simple DL Vol. 34
06./06. Monster Hunter 4G
07./04. Pikmin Short Movies 3D
08./18. Urban Trial Freestyle
09./09. World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014
10./08. Bike Rider DX
11./00. Etrian Odyssey 2
12./10. Super Smash Bros.
13./11. Pokémon Battle Trozei
14./00. Mighty Gunvolt
15./13. Puyo Puyo!! Mini Version
16./12. Bike Rider DX 2 Galaxy
17./00. Pac-Man
18./14. Pinch 50
19./20. Pokémon AR Searcher
20./00. Soliti Horse

...I was wondering which downloadable-only games could be considered successful. We know Kirby Fighters Z and Pokémon Battle Link are (they are present in the Famitsu download chart). It seems that Soliti Horse, Mighty Gunvolt, Petit Computer and Puyo Puyo Mini are performing well.
 
Jan 25, 2014
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0
I didn't realize it was coming so soon. Interested at how this take of NI to new IPs will work.
I have to wonder what their expectations were for this. It seems to have had more of a Hotaru no Nikki budget than their PS3 productions, and I'd hope the sales they'd expect from it would be in a similar ballpark.

They turned a profit from Shin Hayarigami, though that was helped by a PS3 SKU too.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
775
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
By looking at the latest 3DS eShop chart (from Japanese3DS):

01./01. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire
02./02. Pokémon Omega Ruby
03./05. Puchikon No. 3: SMILE BASIC
04./03. Kirby Fighters Z
05./07. Simple DL Vol. 34
06./06. Monster Hunter 4G
07./04. Pikmin Short Movies 3D
08./18. Urban Trial Freestyle
09./09. World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014
10./08. Bike Rider DX
11./00. Etrian Odyssey 2
12./10. Super Smash Bros.
13./11. Pokémon Battle Trozei
14./00. Mighty Gunvolt
15./13. Puyo Puyo!! Mini Version
16./12. Bike Rider DX 2 Galaxy
17./00. Pac-Man
18./14. Pinch 50
19./20. Pokémon AR Searcher
20./00. Soliti Horse

...I was wondering which downloadable-only games could be considered successful. We know Kirby Fighters Z and Pokémon Battle Link are (they are present in the Famitsu download chart). It seems that Soliti Horse, Mighty Gunvolt, Petit Computer and Puyo Puyo Mini are performing well.
...Winning Eleven 2014 9th? Why? Is there a sale going on?
 
To follow up on the major series with stronger competition discussion:

Code:
[Week 03] CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 107,474 / 1,081,634 (-41%)
[Week 03] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 156,240 / 1,117,240 (-16%)

[B][Week 04] CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE	(ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 225,695 / 1,307,329 (+110%)[/B]
[Week 04] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 207,799 / 1,325,039 (+33%)
As sales of the PS4 and Xbox One versions of GTA V drop off in their second week of release, it is the previous generation versions of ‘Call of Duty’ (Xbox 360 and PS3) that take advantage. 67% of COD sales this week are on the older console formats, whereas at launch it was a 68% share for PS4 and Xbox One. Sales of ‘Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare’ this week are the largest ever for any title in a Black Friday week.
Even ignoring the heavy digital aspect of next-gen titles, Advanced Warfare has almost caught up at retail alone.

Basically, tying this back to Media Create, as long as Nintendo and Game Freak make sure Pokemon has competitive quality, I don't think Yokai Watch's success will be an issue.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
775
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
To follow up on the major series with stronger competition discussion:

Code:
[Week 03] CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 107,474 / 1,081,634 (-41%)
[Week 03] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 156,240 / 1,117,240 (-16%)

[B][Week 04] CALL OF DUTY: ADVANCED WARFARE	(ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 225,695 / 1,307,329 (+110%)[/B]
[Week 04] CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD) - 207,799 / 1,325,039 (+33%)


Even ignoring the heavy digital aspect of next-gen titles, Advanced Warfare has almost caught up at retail alone.

Basically, tying this back to Media Create, as long as Nintendo and Game Freak make sure Pokemon has competitive quality, I don't think Yokai Watch's success will be an issue.
Geez, right the day after I said that the gap would have increased :lol...but the game received a massive deal for old gen versions (24.99 for the Day Zero edition), and this helped sales a lot.
But you're right in saying we should consider digital sales as well, and that could help in narrowing / compensate completely the gap. Still, though, as you said, digital sales are quite front-loaded right now, bigger at launch and then rapidly going down compared to overall sales. MK8 is an example of a game with a rising digital sales' shares in US (and I'm still wondering why), but that's about it.
I maintain my position: I still think saying AW's quality reversed the decline is a bit premature. It's possible it'll help slowing it down, though.

This is just on this snippet of your original comment about competition between major series; I agree on the general point, of course.
 
Dec 20, 2013
1,208
2
350
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2014

[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 800,000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 220,000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 100,000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 680,000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 100,000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2,000,000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 220,000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 79,408
 
Geez, right the day after I said that the gap would have increased :lol...but the game received a massive deal for old gen versions (24.99 for the Day Zero edition), and this helped sales a lot.
But you're right in saying we should consider digital sales as well, and that could help in narrowing / compensate completely the gap. Still, though, as you said, digital sales are quite front-loaded right now, bigger at launch and then rapidly going down compared to overall sales. MK8 is an example of a game with a rising digital sales' shares in US (and I'm still wondering why), but that's about it.
I maintain my position: I still think saying AW's quality reversed the decline is a bit premature. It's possible it'll help slowing it down, though.

This is just on this snippet of your original comment about competition between major series; I agree on the general point, of course.
That is true.

Though on the quality note I should also probably mention we're talking about a series that went from a 78 on Ghosts to an 82 on Advance Warfare, yet used to get 94s with CoD4 and MW2.

I do think we see a market response here, though I may be giving a larger impression of shift on the quality front than reviews would be reflecting.

I'm curious to see how Black Ops 3 turns out since Sledgehammer built out the rest of the studio during their cycle while building this whereas Treyarch basically has a full three years at full capacity.

On that note, is a Pokemon title expected next year, or does Game Freak normally take a year off before launching another mainline title?
 
Aug 25, 2013
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On that note, is a Pokemon title expected next year, or does Game Freak normally take a year off before launching another mainline title?
Pokemon has had a game every year since 2008, with the exception of 2011 (in between Black/White and Black 2/White 2), going by Japan release dates, if we use release dates in the rest of the world it's been an annual franchise since 2009....so it's probably going to stay that way :p
 
Pokemon has had a game every year since 2008, with the exception of 2011 (in between Black/White and Black 2/White 2), going by Japan release dates, if we use release dates in the rest of the world it's been an annual franchise since 2009....so it's probably going to stay that way :p
Yeah, I think I was thinking of that gap in specific when I was wondering.

Is it time for Gen 7 then or like... another remake? Expanded version?
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
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0
Comgnet is worse.
Than inferences from Amazon in NA? Certainly. From inferences from Amazon Japan? I would have to dispute that.

Is it time for Gen 7 then or like... another remake? Expanded version?
I mean at some point they have to go back and remake Red/Blue in a 3D engine right? I don't think it happens this gen, but are they really going to remake Diamond/Pearl this gen either? I could see a Pokemon Red reremake for the 20th anniversary if they're going to keep up the yearly releases.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Pokemon has had a game every year since 2008, with the exception of 2011 (in between Black/White and Black 2/White 2), going by Japan release dates, if we use release dates in the rest of the world it's been an annual franchise since 2009....so it's probably going to stay that way :p
When was ORAS announced relative to release? Are we in for a gap-year in 2015? Or are Nintendo going to push for a "Z" title that can take advantage of some aspects of the N3DS?
 
Jun 9, 2012
26,506
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When was ORAS announced relative to release? Are we in for a gap-year in 2015? Or are Nintendo going to push for a "Z" title that can take advantage of some aspects of the N3DS?
There could be a gap year. I wonder if Gen 8 will be this gen or next gen though. But Pokemon ORAS was announced only 6 months ago, so Nintendo certainly seems to have gotten into the groove of surprise announcements with a release 6-8 months later.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
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There could be a gap year. I wonder if Gen 8 will be this gen or next gen though. But Pokemon ORAS was announced only 6 months ago.
If it was only 6-months, then I'd say we have a very high likelihood of hearing about a Pokemon Z before we hear about a Pokemon Ultraviolet and Infrared.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
8,548
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On that note, is a Pokemon title expected next year, or does Game Freak normally take a year off before launching another mainline title?
I think 2015 will be an off-year for Pokemon mainline.

The Pokemon Company will most likely devote its time on the launch of Pokken Tournament, Pikachu Detective and my assumption is, we will have a game either 3DS or Wii U, that is built around either Pokemon amiibo line or trading card game for launch in November.

I mean at some point they have to go back and remake Red/Blue in a 3D engine right? I don't think it happens this gen, but are they really going to remake Diamond/Pearl this gen either? I could see a Pokemon Red reremake for the 20th anniversary if they're going to keep up the yearly releases.
Yep. That's how I see it. In 2016 to commemorate the 20th anniversary launch of Red Green.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 325k (GTA V sold over 600K last year on the PS3, although with massive advertising)


-------------------------------------------

Playstation 20th anniversary survey with ten thousand people.

Game you liked the most:

1. Dragon Quest V (PS2)

So, this pretty much confirms DQXI exclusive to the PS4.


Remake you look forward to the most:

1. Final Fantasy VII (PS1)

Do I even need to say it?
 

bakman21

Neo Member
Jun 22, 2013
42
0
0
Greece
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2014

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 1 to 28):

[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 885.000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 260.000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 125.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 670.000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 122.000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2.050.000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 223.000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 166.000
 
Feb 5, 2009
9,008
63
715
PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2014

[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 817,296
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 188,734
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 119,636
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 861,088
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 106,977
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2,117,914
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 213,841
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 79,408
These are the most interesting Wii U/PS4 numbers i ' ve read so far. Is your Smash Wii U figure correct or does it have a typo?

So interesting i had to comment, no cruel intentions really XD
 
Dec 7, 2005
14,228
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Is it time for Gen 7 then or like... another remake? Expanded version?
Following their usual patterns, they still need to release a third version of X/Y or a direct sequel X2/Y2.

B2/W2 performed better than the usual third version rereleases, in spite of W/B by themselves having lower sales than the other entries in the series, so I think they'll follow the direct sequel format. Releasing a remake before the third version happened with the original Ruby/Sapphire themselves.

I don't think they'll jump into a new generation any time soon considering how they're still struggling with their current engine. A Red/Green remake is possible too, but with their current approach I think it could end up really disappointing, considering how it'd be mostly a straight conversion of Red/Blue to 3d, without new geometry to take advantage of the 3d itself.
 
Feb 5, 2009
9,008
63
715
If I tell you the truth, Moor-Angol's predictions are close to mine.
While these Media/Famitsu sales threads are among the best Neogaf has to offer i must admit im not as constant in the thread as i would like to be, so i 've most have missed your entry. Other wise with similar numbers, i would have commented XD

Another thing related to PS4/Wii U numbers that i found interesting disscussed in other opportunity, was the potential date in which the PS4 would over take the Wii U, with late 2016(?) been the estimated throwed around. i 've given zero indepth thought to the matter but what's sure is that PS4 baseline will get a lot higher as there isn't any other place for what's left of the "traditional home console gamer" to move to.
 
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
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0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
These are the most interesting Wii U/PS4 numbers i ' ve read so far. Is your Smash Wii U figure correct or does it have a typo?

So interesting i had to comment, no cruel intentions really XD
no typo, 23 days means 4 weeks, debut might be on pair to MK8 or better, than the game will have the natural 2nd week drop, but then the last 2 weeks come and they are the best for sales all over the year.

I just wanna try with this prediction :)
 
Apr 4, 2010
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Belgium
actually we don't know yet, but considering SEGA lowered its expectation from 600k to who knows how much, the game should open aroung 120-150k so probably something around 300-350k, which is reasonable considering Vita situation and how much games sold until now
I don't see how it would be reasonable for a popular and well established IP to sell worse than an unproven new IP (in the same genre) released on the same system a few months prior to be honest.

Edit:I'm not saying it would be awful and that PSN is going to be considered a bomb, but it would still be a disappointment considering the franchise's pedigree.
 
Mar 9, 2012
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While these Media/Famitsu sales threads are among the best Neogaf has to offer i must admit im not as constant in the thread as i would like to be, so i 've most have missed your entry. Other wise with similar numbers, i would have commented XD
You haven't missed because I haven't posted it yet. XD

PREDICTION LEAGUE DECEMBER 2014

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 1 to 28):

[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 801.000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 206.000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 131.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 771.000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 104.000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2.431.000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 256.000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 125.000
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 750.000
[WIU] Hardware (28 days) - 180.000
[PS4] Hardware (28 days) - 110.000
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U (23 days) - 560.000
[PS4+XBO] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 78.000
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shinuchi (16 days) - 2.000.000
[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers (11 days) - 150.000
[PS3+PSV] Gundam Breaker 2 (11 days) - 125.000
 
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
0
0
44
Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
I don't see how it would be reasonable for a popular and well established IP to sell worse than an unproven new IP (in the same genre) released on the same system a few months prior to be honest.

Edit:I'm not saying it would be awful and that PSN is going to be considered a bomb, but it would still be a disappointment considering the franchise's pedigree.
how many PS gas sold more than 500k ?

on DC and GC iirc sales were around 200k, on DS was 400k right?

this is the franchise pedigree

if PSPort reached 600k and any other title did such a result it's only due to MH momentum, it's clear and simple

so why Nova must sell half a million to not be considered a flop?
even 400k should be an amazing result, would we like to compare DS and Vita installed base?
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
how many PS gas sold more than 500k ?

on DC and GC iirc sales were around 200k, on DS was 400k right?

this is the franchise pedigree

if PSPort reached 600k and any other title did such a result it's only due to MH momentum, it's clear and simple

so why Nova must sell half a million to not be considered a flop?
even 400k should be an amazing result, would we like to compare DS and Vita installed base?
Sega was originally expecting 500k. This is an AAA handheld project, I'd say the most important PSV game ever developed. PSV has an installed base of 3m+, which could technically support 450-500k games.

Sega revised expectations so a 400k might look more achievable. 400k units would be the least minimum attainable result for the biggest PSV project ever.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Calling Phantasy Star Nova "the most important PSV game ever developed" seems a bit much. Lol. Obviously Sega has high hopes for the title, but it has never really looked that great from the start, even compared to other Vita games, and it's just another non-online 4-player action/RPG game where you fight giant monsters. Out of a bunch on the Vita.

- People who want to play PSO2 can already play it on the Vita or on other platforms.

- People who want to play offline multiplayer giant monster hunting games have a number of titles to choose from now.

Doesn't seem any more or less important than something like Freedom Wars honestly. Doesn't even look as interesting. :p
 

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
Will we witness how 360 outsold One weekly?
The likelihood of that happens is depressingly high, to be honest.

About Pokémon, I think they are indeed going to go for the actual sequel route: it's a way to provide something more substantial to fans, therefore loading to more sales than just a 3rd version, and at a not-so-much-higher cost (re-use of the engine, 3D models and all).

Don't quite think they're going to take an off-year, not with YW being so present.

Then again, there's also that Pikachu detective game slated for 2015. No idea how big the game is meant to be, as it's a spin-off.
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
Calling Phantasy Star Nova "the most important PSV game ever developed" seems a bit much. Lol. Obviously Sega has high hopes for the title, but it has never really looked that great from the start, even compared to other Vita games, and it's just another non-online 4-player action/RPG game where you fight giant monsters. Out of a bunch on the Vita.

- People who want to play PSO2 can already play it on the Vita or on other platforms.

- People who want to play offline multiplayer giant monster hunting games have a number of titles to choose from now.

Doesn't seem any more or less important than something like Freedom Wars honestly. Doesn't even look as interesting. :p
To me, the scope of the game and the marketing behind it seemed bigger than any other PSV game. The fact that it does not look as interesting has nothing to do on how big the project might be; you have average games in a popular genre that still cost a lot to produce and market (think about Ni no Kuni). Sega was expecting 500k units, and this tells much about the potential appeal of the game (then of course publishers might misread the market, as often happens; but I guess funding was decided accordingly).

It also belongs to an IP that did wonderfully on PSP, and it's an exclusive game. These are all factors that should be taken into account. Freedom Wars was a new IP launched in Summer, with not much marketing behind it (and it sold well thanks to PSV userbase).
 
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
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Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
Sega was originally expecting 500k. This is an AAA handheld project, I'd say the most important PSV game ever developed. PSV has an installed base of 3m+, which could technically support 450-500k games.

Sega revised expectations so a 400k might look more achievable. 400k units would be the least minimum attainable result for the biggest PSV project ever.
a couple of weeks ago I said that here someone was expecting 600k for Nova, and you asked me who was thinking that

the answer in clearly inside the quote :)
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
a couple of weeks ago I said that here someone was expecting 600k for Nova, and you asked me who was thinking that

the answer in clearly inside the quote :)
I never stated I was expecting 600k units. Actually, I said that PSP results were of course not achievable, bar PSP Infinity, that did around 400k units. Sega was expecting 500k units, and that seemed a realistic result to begin with. Now, 300-350k seems more realistic.

This does not change the bottom line: PSV is unable to have heavy hitters, and even though the installed base would allow them, it will remain a platform mainly for niche or 100-150k games.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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To me, the scope of the game and the marketing behind it seemed bigger than any other PSV game. The fact that it does not look as interesting has nothing to do on how big the project might be; you have average games in a popular genre that still cost a lot to produce and market (think about Ni no Kuni). Sega was expecting 500k units, and this tells much about the potential appeal of the game (then of course publishers might misread the market, as often happens; but I guess funding was decided accordingly).

It also belongs to an IP that did wonderfully on PSP, and it's an exclusive game. These are all factors that should be taken into account. Freedom Wars was a new IP launched in Summer, with not much marketing behind it (and it sold well thanks to PSV userbase).
Even if all of that is true, that doesn't make it the most important title for the Vita or even a particularly important title at this point for the platform. It is only important to Sega in terms of whether they make their money back or not. Vita as a platform is much like the WiiU - the fate has long been decided. Not title at this point on is going to make any real difference. Individual titles might have success or failure on their own, but nothing will really change the general tide. At this point, it's too late in the life cycle for there to be any major movements in terms of other publishers or consumers shifting their interest in any significant way.

I'm not sure I see that PS Nova has bigger marketing than any other Vita game though, I don't even think it's being marketed particularly aggressively. Just a regular campaign for a franchise title a publisher hopes to do well. Not much different from Sony's first party stuff or other franchise titles like God Eater or Persona. Freedom Wars had "not much marketing"? Again, I think that's bullocks. Sony marketed the game substantially.

I think the biggest difference between PS Portable and PS Nova is that the PS Portable games weren't on a platform which already had an actual popular PSO entry for months as a F2P online game. I think if they wanted PS Nova to feel really special to audiences, they should have made it look more unique. Instead, graphically it looks like a reskinned PSO2, and the perception will be "why do I really want this if I already have PSO2?"
 
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
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Japan
retrogamesheaven.com
To me, the scope of the game and the marketing behind it seemed bigger than any other PSV game. The fact that it does not look as interesting has nothing to do on how big the project might be; you have average games in a popular genre that still cost a lot to produce and market (think about Ni no Kuni). Sega was expecting 500k units, and this tells much about the potential appeal of the game (then of course publishers might misread the market, as often happens; but I guess funding was decided accordingly).
your guess is based on what ?
 
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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www.wiitalia.it
your guess is based on what ?
It has been confirmed that Sega's initial expectations were 500k units; the company then revised them. Since early indicators didn't point out to Sega's initial expectations, it seems clear that the company misread the market demand for the product; which is something that, to be honest, happens oftentimes. We usually witness this with low sell-throughs. This time, we had some indications about the original company's expectations.

Even if all of that is true, that doesn't make it the most important title for the Vita or even a particularly important title at this point for the platform. It is only important to Sega in terms of whether they make their money back or not. Vita as a platform is much like the WiiU - the fate has long been decided. Not title at this point on is going to make any real difference. Individual titles might have success or failure on their own, but nothing will really change the general tide. At this point, it's too late in the life cycle for there to be any major movements in terms of other publishers or consumers shifting their interest in any significant way.

I'm not sure I see that PS Nova has bigger marketing than any other Vita game though, I don't even think it's being marketed particularly aggressively. Just a regular campaign for a franchise title a publisher hopes to do well. Not much different from Sony's first party stuff or other franchise titles like God Eater or Persona. Freedom Wars had "not much marketing"? Again, I think that's bullocks. Sony marketed the game substantially.

I think the biggest difference between PS Portable and PS Nova is that the PS Portable games weren't on a platform which already had an actual popular PSO entry for months as a F2P online game. I think if they wanted PS Nova to feel really special to audiences, they should have made it look more unique. Instead, graphically it looks like a reskinned PSO2, and the perception will be "why do I really want this if I already have PSO2?"
Of course, PSN wasn't going to change PSV's fate. We don't know, though, whether Sega started the development with this in mind, or with other expectations.

In any case, I struggle to see a bigger PSV project at this point. This is only my opinion, though; since we don't know budget and marketing campaign for each game, we can hardly reach a conclusion. Outside Freedom Wars, though, all the top-selling games on PSV are either porting or multi-plat with PSP.