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Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2011 (Dec 12 - Dec 18)

Datschge

Member
Sep 23, 2006
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1,150
Something incredibly obvious I was missing; Media create themselves do this Fluffy discussion in this week`s analysis, they say that based on DD sales the tie ratio is probably similar to past launches.
"Probably" and the lack of numbers being the key issue with it. You can't buy anything with PR statements like "good", "well", "exceeded our expectations (which ones?)" etc. Or do you seriously want to discuss which "good" amounts to better sales than another "good"? Or assume that every game has 10% more sales in addition to physical sales?

FF XIII-2 sales exceeded my expectations, this game is DLC heaven for Square Enix, they'll make a lot of money by all those gamers buying additional story DLCs after finishing the on-disk story part. Those won't even be hampered by the used sales. The seemingly low sales in relation to previous entries give the wrong picture, at best FF XI is comparable, and that it already has surpassed. (Add more fluff with no real facts backing the claims.) See where I coming from?

Fluffy stuff in Media Create threads used to be reserved for "weekly dumb user" who got laughed out of the thread to never appear again. DCharlie somehow gets away with his weasel bets, Comnget suddenly is considered reliable enough that Square returned, at this rate I can't wait for Amazon charts and Famitsu most wanted charts to be recognized as a regular part of sales age and chartz get unbannned soon...
 

SaintR

Member
Sep 26, 2009
708
0
0
New Jersey
"Probably" and the lack of numbers being the key issue with it. You can't buy anything with PR statements like "good", "well", "exceeded our expectations (which ones?)" etc. Or do you seriously want to discuss which "good" amounts to better sales than another "good"? Or assume that every game has 10% more sales in addition to physical sales?

FF XIII-2 sales exceeded my expectations, this game is DLC heaven for Square Enix, they'll make a lot of money by all those gamers buying additional story DLCs after finishing the on-disk story part. Those won't even be hampered by the used sales. The seemingly low sales in relation to previous entries give the wrong picture, at best FF XI is comparable, and that it already has surpassed. (Add more fluff with no real facts backing the claims.) See where I coming from?

Fluffy stuff in Media Create threads used to be reserved for "weekly dumb user" who got laughed out of the thread to never appear again. DCharlie somehow gets away with his weasel bets, Comnget suddenly is considered reliable enough that Square returned, at this rate I can't wait for Amazon charts and Famitsu most wanted charts to be recognized as a regular part of sales age and chartz get unbannned soon...
I agree with you that sales discussion can get blurred if we have nothing to substantiate the sales of DD, however, outright dismissing any discussion is also the wrong path.
I don't have an answer but like Opiate stated in his post moving forward DD sales probably going to play a more important role. Hopefully you guys find the right median since I mostly lurk but I enjoy these discussions.
 

kassatsu

Banned
Mar 26, 2007
20,270
0
1,150
Redmond, WA
www.psnstores.com
Vita Top 10 on PSN

1. Hot Shots Golf 6
2. Ridge Racer
3. Lord of Apocalypse
4. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
5. Little Deviants
6. True Night of the Kamaitachi: The 11th Visitor
7. Dynasty Warriors NEXT
8. Katamari Vita
9. Army Corps of Hell
10. Disgaea 3
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Let's do it again.

1000 posts reached.
Time: 24h + 4h 43m = 28h 43m = 1680m + 43m = 1723m
1000 / 1723m = 0,6 posts per minute

...Ok, this was only an excuse to say that Chris has to talk, since it's leaving us in this way. XD
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Vita Top 10 on PSN

1. Hot Shots Golf 6
2. Ridge Racer
3. Lord of Apocalypse
4. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
5. Little Deviants
6. True Night of the Kamaitachi: The 11th Visitor
7. Dynasty Warriors NEXT
8. Katamari Vita
9. Army Corps of Hell
10. Disgaea 3
Army Corps of Hell did poor even on Vita Top 10 on PSN :(
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
0
0
That's extreme
ly fucking unlikely
, all right.

"Probably" and the lack of numbers being the key issue with it. You can't buy anything with PR statements like "good", "well", "exceeded our expectations (which ones?)" etc. Or do you seriously want to discuss which "good" amounts to better sales than another "good"? Or assume that every game has 10% more sales in addition to physical sales?
We know it matters. We think it matters more now than it used to. We think it does not affect both machines equally. We have no solid data.

It's a bummer. Adding some arbitrary amount, or assuming some game that bombed is a secret DD blockbuster is stupid, obviously, but it's also stupid to say that the sales are inconsequential if Sony doesn't issue a PR.
 

Gibbles17

Member
May 29, 2011
269
0
0
Didn't SE shotgun FFXIII-3 as a domain name or something too? Rofl wonder what they'll do with that.

Releasing a sequel to XIII was unfathomable idiocy. Despite my love for classic Square, I'm glad for these bomba numbers, that'll learn em. Except probably not.

Also, XIII-2 will still be crazy profitable no? Tons of reused assets and junk?

Edit: Wow, released during the holidays and still beat out by Tales. That's fucking huge, how hilarious.
 

Dragon

Banned
Jul 7, 2007
24,879
0
0
Thanks to Kassatsu for compiling this list at least we have digital rankings:

1. Hot Shots Golf 6
2. Ridge Racer
3. Lord of Apocalypse
4. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
5. Little Deviants
6. True Night of the Kamaitachi: The 11th Visitor
7. Dynasty Warriors NEXT
8. Katamari Vita
9. Army Corps of Hell
10. Disgaea 3

http://www.psnstores.com/2011/12/vita-game-psn-sales-rankings-are-out/

Surprised Dynasty Warriors is so low!

Friggin Ridge Racer smh.
 
Apr 27, 2011
5,246
2
0
I dunno, I'd say 3DS having a jump to 600k+ is at least as unlikely as Vita beating it for a single week. When DS hit it's high mark back in 2005 it sold over 400k the previous week. 7 things I can think of that'd live up to the hype:

-3DS actually reaching one of those crazy numbers.
-Vita below 100k.
-Vita over 3DS.
-Vita over 3DS, both under 100k, 360 dominating the charts.
-Monster Hunter crash and burn, another 60%+ drop.
-Final Fantasy miraculously having amazing legs, dropping only by something crazy like 30% or less.
-Final Fantasy dropping even harder than XIII, 95%+.
 

spwolf

Member
Feb 15, 2007
16,282
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0
"Probably" and the lack of numbers being the key issue with it. You can't buy anything with PR statements like "good", "well", "exceeded our expectations (which ones?)" etc. Or do you seriously want to discuss which "good" amounts to better sales than another "good"? Or assume that every game has 10% more sales in addition to physical sales?
by that metric, there should be 5 posts in these threads, since we get so little info about sales. It is completely reasonable to estimate stuff like that, because we do have some limited info. I dont think 10% on average is unreasonable, considering everything we know as a fact (previous stats, more focus on downloads, memory card sales, pricing that is considerably lower).
 
Dragon said:
FF11 must have done pretty well considering they just shut it down recently right?
It's still going. Will hit 10 years in Japan in May.
artwalknoon said:
God yes, building on XII with hd capabilities would have been amazing. I loved how "lived in" the locations in XII felt and the vastness of the different areas. In XIII all we got were pretty backgrounds and linear paths.
Late in the game it did have pretty much ONE really massive area that made me think of what a next-gen XII without as many area transitions could've been.

EDIT: We're now getting weekly numbers for 10 systems from Media Create. Safe to say they'll be dropping DS Lite in a few weeks?
 

Cipherr

Member
Dec 15, 2007
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by that metric, there should be 5 posts in these threads, since we get so little info about sales. It is completely reasonable to estimate stuff like that, because we do have some limited info.
No, its completely reasonable to acknowledge stuff like that, its not reasonable to estimate at all with zero actual numbers available. You dont have limited info on the number of digital PSV titles sold, you have ZERO info other than "they sold well". Theres a substantial difference between the two. You cant pull a numerical figure (%10) out of thin air.

I would be all on board if 2 years from now a new RR title is coming out and we find out that 15% of this current RR launch title were DD. See in that case we would have actual numbers, from the same series to use to estimate the upcoming digital sales of a new entry in said franchise.

But with this there is nothing. Nothing but a few words. You dont get 'estimates' from that. And no, there shouldnt be 5 posts in these threads, we get countless amounts of actual sellthrough data. From Famitsu year end charts, to million seller lists, to sellthrough percentages to actual shipment numbers. ACTUAL numbers, not PR. Theres plenty to discuss.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
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0
We know it matters. We think it matters more now than it used to. We think it does not affect both machines equally. We have no solid data.

It's a bummer. Adding some arbitrary amount, or assuming some game that bombed is a secret DD blockbuster is stupid, obviously, but it's also stupid to say that the sales are inconsequential if Sony doesn't issue a PR.
then why bother?

One person can say XIII-2 doesn't bomb since it sold a million copies on PSN last week.
Another person can say it sold 50,000 copies which is about 10% of the physical.
A third person can say it only sold 5000 copies which is about 1% of the physical.

Nobody can say either one of them is right. It's just random numbers.

To make it even worse, people started using the statement like "Sales of the download versions of titles are exceeding expectations." from SCEJ boss as a reason for throwing random numbers while we never know what expectations are.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Eh, but I don't think Japanese would pay almost 3000 Yen, even, for the very scarce content of Ridge Racer. But talking without solid numbers, or even something remotely similar to numbers...naaah.

You know? This week I expected to see much more 3DS games in chart. Maybe it's just that Vita's debut, especially in positions 20-50, inflated the chart, but even if Nintendogs has certainly risen in numbers, and probably Pokemon did something similar to last week, but I wanted to see also Zelda and Rocket Heroes 3, which is...one of those strange cases of differences between Famitsu and MediaCreate.

In week 48, for MC, it was out of top 50, while in Famitsu it was 25th, with over 9k done and an LTD of 80k

Maybe next week, especially if the extreme scenario is what I think (Chris, explain! ), we could see other 3DS titles in top50.
 

wrowa

Member
Jul 26, 2006
14,351
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Germany
Eh, but I don't think Japanese would pay almost 3000 Yen, even, for the very scarce content of Ridge Racer. But talking without solid numbers, or even something remotely similar to numbers...naaah.

You know? This week I expected to see much more 3DS games in chart. Maybe it's just that Vita's debut, especially in positions 20-50, inflated the chart, but even if Nintendogs has certainly risen in numbers, and probably Pokemon did something similar to last week, but I wanted to see also Zelda and Rocket Heroes 3, which is...one of those strange cases of differences between Famitsu and MediaCreate.

In week 48, for MC, it was out of top 50, while in Famitsu it was 25th, with over 9k done and an LTD of 80k

Maybe next week, especially if the extreme scenario is what I think (Chris, explain! ), we could see other 3DS titles in top50.
Considering that FFXIII-2 360 sold 10k this week and is only at 48, I'd assume that most games in the back part of the top 50 sold very close to each other, so that a small difference in tracking already makes a huge difference in position.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
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0
then why bother?

One person can say XIII-2 doesn't bomb since it sold a million copies on PSN last week.
Another person can say it sold 50,000 copies which is about 10% of the physical.
A third person can say it only sold 5000 copies which is about 1% of the physical.

Nobody can say either one of them is right. It's just random numbers.

To make it even worse, people started using the statement like "Sales of the download versions of titles are exceeding expectations." from SCEJ boss as a reason for throwing random numbers while we never know what expectations are.
Why bother with what? I'm not making any kind of prescription, I'm just saying how it is. We can stick our heads in the sand and pretend there's no issue, or we can acknowledge reality. MC/Famitsu do not, and can not, give us a complete picture of the PSV's software sales.
 

freddy

Banned
Jun 7, 2007
8,296
0
0
The whole DD download thing reeks of excuses where none are needed. Vita software didn't set the world on fire but it's early days yet.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
I dunno, I'd say 3DS having a jump to 600k+ is at least as unlikely as Vita beating it for a single week. When DS hit it's high mark back in 2005 it sold over 400k the previous week.
Hmm, things aren't so dramatic.

Code:
------------------------------------------------
|  | MCreate  | MCreate  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   NDS    |   3DS    |   NDS    |   3DS    |
|Wk|2005.01.03|2011.01.03|2005.01.03|2011.01.03|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2006.01.01|2012.01.01|2006.01.01|2012.01.01|
------------------------------------------------
| 1|   108.561|          |   132.117|          |
| 2|    53.527|          |    58.988|          |
| 3|    44.608|          |    47.291|          |
| 4|    43.226|          |    42.255|          |
| 5|    29.552|          |    35.451|          |
| 6|    26.205|          |    30.791|          |
| 7|    22.363|          |    25.557|          |
| 8|    26.761|   374.764|    30.177|   371.326|
| 9|    25.759|   209.623|    28.280|   206.087|
|10|    26.537|    96.463|    25.275|   104.412|
|11|    22.446|    61.394|    22.772|    64.942|
|12|    55.825|    50.710|    60.507|    54.656|
|13|    43.023|    42.979|    43.806|    43.178|
|14|    30.028|    32.910|    26.752|    32.759|
|15|    21.698|    28.252|    22.678|    25.320|
|16|    96.191|    23.038|    72.767|    21.275|
|17|    64.247|    28.413|    54.145|    25.331|
|18|    67.863|    29.149|    69.594|    26.107|
|19|    26.583|    18.324|    25.301|    16.379|
|20|    29.808|    17.240|    28.379|    16.465|
|21|    39.687|    24.283|    43.845|    25.096|
|22|    34.939|    27.357|    35.019|    27.868|
|23|    32.765|    24.649|    31.915|    24.226|
|24|    31.376|    40.649|    32.206|    41.086|
|25|    32.789|    27.905|    36.485|    27.378|
|26|    35.083|    30.233|    38.142|    31.545|
|27|    41.503|    22.943|    42.581|    23.219|
|28|    35.827|    46.637|    39.672|    45.949|
|29|    41.982|    31.826|    45.012|    32.381|
|30|    44.518|    16.415|    44.272|    15.819|
|31|    43.665|     4.132|    52.523|     3.701|
|32|   103.095|   196.077|    90.882|   214.821|
|33|    80.945|   105.639|    84.648|   107.462|
|34|    57.313|    60.781|    65.035|    57.927|
|35|    58.579|    54.744|    55.034|    55.264|
|36|    47.239|    49.076|    62.641|    49.191|
|37|    72.167|    58.837|    62.772|    62.245|
|38|    68.123|    70.159|    64.655|    68.386|
|39|    43.362|    58.504|    41.412|    55.853|
|40|    39.137|    53.540|    46.609|    50.916|
|41|    44.262|    55.025|    48.724|    54.460|
|42|    44.283|    73.933|    48.348|    75.386|
|43|    46.826|    65.041|    46.246|    67.854|
|44|    48.520|   145.271|    53.948|   128.287|
|45|    48.342|   103.962|    56.098|    89.938|
|46|    65.341|    96.219|    67.232|    88.225|
|47|   132.012|   120.920|   162.398|   110.088|
|48|   176.958|   205.962|   155.494|   216.350|
|49|   299.328|   350.321|   295.701|   378.114|
|50|   408.770|   367.691|   381.776|   390.000|
|51|   597.628|          |   614.748|          |
|52|   390.181|          |   408.195|          |
------------------------------------------------
 

thestopsign

Member
Jun 2, 2005
7,839
2
1,325
I'm thinking 3DS at 500k (maybe 550k) or so this week is most likely. Somewhere in between DS 2005 Week 51 and 3DS 2011 Week 50.
 

saichi

Member
Apr 8, 2010
2,736
0
0
Why bother with what? I'm not making any kind of prescription, I'm just saying how it is. We can stick our heads in the sand and pretend there's no issue, or we can acknowledge reality. MC/Famitsu do not, and can not, give us a complete picture of the PSV's software sales.
Nobody is saying there is 0 sales on PSN but it doesn't mean it's ok for anyone to just throw random numbers as good estimate. For all I know, it could be 10 copies for Hot Shot Golf 6 to make it on top of PSV PSN chart which would allow us to completely ignore the digital sales. Unless we have solid data as basis for most titles, this discussion of DD sales is just random guesses with nothing to back them up.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
I'm not gonna post what some retailers mentioned since we will have another 100 posts of pointless discussion and could not even happen in the end most likely. If it happens you'll see it next week.

In the case of 3DS software there are complaints for the sales of lower proflle titles since top 3 takes the air from everything else and the hopes now are that after dust goes down in January the increased userbase will start responding to these titles too.
 

apujanata

Member
Jun 14, 2004
2,233
0
0
Let's do it again.

1000 posts reached.
Time: 24h + 4h 43m = 28h 43m = 1680m + 43m = 1723m
1000 / 1723m = 0,6 posts per minute

...Ok, this was only an excuse to say that Chris has to talk, since it's leaving us in this way. XD
Zelda bomba, FF13-2 bomba. Looking forward to more interesting M-create threads.
 
Jan 28, 2010
6,073
0
0
ITALY
graphmag.wordpress.com
I'm not gonna post what some retailers mentioned since we will have another 100 posts of pointless discussion and could not even happen in the end most likely. If it happens you'll see it next week.

In the case of 3DS software there are complaints for the sales of lower proflle titles since top 3 takes the air from everything else and the hopes now are that after dust goes down in January the increased userbase will start responding to these titles too.
That's what I think as well. All games set for Jan-Mar will exploit a bigger installed base and more space left from the three monsters.
 

Alrus

Member
Apr 4, 2010
9,787
0
595
Belgium
I guess Level 5 should have waited a couple of months befores launching IE Go then... Konami did good by delaying Love Plus (even though it probably would have been less affected by the big 3)

Honestly, franchise fatigue doesn't really explain such a massive drop from previous entries. IE3 wasn't badly received (it had decent legs even if it was at bomba price) and The Ogre version sold quite well... Heck it had a better first week than IE Go =/ It's pretty obvious the audience that buys that kind of game is too busy with Mario/Kart.

Also speaking of Zelda, while it's not selling well, it's not that far from top thirty and probably hasn't dropped that much compared to last week (considering FFXIII-2 on 360 is at 10k). Won't save it from selling significantly less than any other 3D zelda...
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,734
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0
38
Honestly, franchise fatigue doesn't really explain such a massive drop from previous entries. IE3 wasn't badly received (it had decent legs even if it was at bomba price) and The Ogre version sold quite well... Heck it had a better first week than IE Go =/ It's pretty obvious the audience that buys that kind of game is too busy with Mario/Kart.
Like I said before, It's not just normal franchise fatigue. It's the fact that both IE and Layton were planned as trilogies, and actually concluded and ended the entire story arc. The 4th games are a start of a new trilogy, and we saw a huge drop-off in interest for Layton 4, even on the DS. Layton 5 on the 3DS didn't sell all that badly at all compared to the 4th game, but the drop off between the first 3 games and the 4th and 5th games is pretty huge.

The same thing is happening here.
 

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
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0
Like I said before, It's not just normal franchise fatigue. It's the fact that both IE and Layton were planned as trilogies, and actually concluded and ended the entire story arc. The 4th games are a start of a new trilogy, and we saw a huge drop-off in interest for Layton 4, even on the DS. Layton 5 on the 3DS didn't sell all that badly at all compared to the 4th game, but the drop off between the first 3 games and the 4th and 5th games is pretty huge.

The same thing is happening here.
I'd rather wait at least another week before writing off IE its the holiday season and isn't there a new anime or something this week that might help boost sales?
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
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I'd rather wait at least another week before writing off IE its the holiday season and isn't there a new anime or something this week that might help boost sales?
I don't think anyone is writing it off. The huge drop off is factual. Even if it ends up selling 500k, that's a huge drop off. I'm just explaining why there is a drop off.
 

Datschge

Member
Sep 23, 2006
5,149
0
1,150
No, its completely reasonable to acknowledge stuff like that, its not reasonable to estimate at all with zero actual numbers available. You dont have limited info on the number of digital PSV titles sold, you have ZERO info other than "they sold well". Theres a substantial difference between the two. You cant pull a numerical figure (%10) out of thin air.
That's the best summary so far, thanks. We can acknowledge financial successes companies apparently have with DLC, be it on cell phones or through PSN or any other system. We however can't compare that with the sales numbers we keep discussing in Media Create threads unless we get numbers for the DLC as well. So Media Create/Famitsu sales give us a good picture about what sells in physical stores. As soon as we touch sales through Amazon or any DDL shop we are in the dark more often than not, and unless a service provider like Sony shares such data voluntarily there's nothing that can be done about that.
 
Apr 27, 2011
5,246
2
0
That's the best summary so far, thanks. We can acknowledge financial successes companies apparently have with DLC, be it on cell phones or through PSN or any other system. We however can't compare that with the sales numbers we keep discussing in Media Create threads unless we get numbers for the DLC as well. So Media Create/Famitsu sales give us a good picture about what sells in physical stores. As soon as we touch sales through Amazon or any DDL shop we are in the dark more often than not, and unless a service provider like Sony shares such data voluntarily there's nothing that can be done about that.
Who are you guys even arguing with on this point? As far as I can tell no one argued that we attempt anything of the sort. This thread is huge now but again, the entire argument started with someone suggesting that digital sales would be too insignificantly small to impact overall sales at this stage. Someone else pointed out how unlikely that is given some empirical evidence and he was insulted with a fanboy label and had his observation compared to the Gamecube Hut meme.

Once again, saying "Digital sales probably took some sales away from retail, given this and this the difference in sales would be explained," is not the same as "Persona 4 had 10% of it's sales come from DD so all Vita games should get the same boost when we talk about sales figures here."
 

Datschge

Member
Sep 23, 2006
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Once again, saying "Digital sales probably took some sales away from retail, given this and this the difference in sales would be explained," is not the same as "Persona 4 had 10% of it's sales come from DD so all Vita games should get the same boost when we talk about sales figures here."
You used a subjunctive in the first sentence. That's not really a strong point at all. Or could you tell which Vita games did well (only) if including DD sales? Without numbers you can't.

And I was arguing with Finalfantasydog.