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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)

L~A

Member
Jan 19, 2013
12,188
0
0
Yo-kai Watch 3 will show if the franchise has peaked or not. I'm not sure Level 5 will release it at summer again, maybe they'll wait a bit longer this time (or maybe not).
Well, TOHO confirmed a new movie for December, so at the very least, there'll be a game to go with that.

But I still think they'll have a new game this Summer.. unless their mysterious new IP takes YW's spot in July. I dunno.

And personally, I think the franchise will peak with YW3 (at the earliest). Gen transition will be critical, especially with Nintendo which will try to get YW on the 4DS asap.
 

ArchedThunder

Banned
May 12, 2012
22,567
0
0
Well, TOHO confirmed a new movie for December, so at the very least, there'll be a game to go with that.

But I still think they'll have a new game this Summer.. unless their mysterious new IP takes YW's spot in July. I dunno.

And personally, I think the franchise will peak with YW3 (at the earliest). Gen transition will be critical, especially with Nintendo which will try to get YW on the 4DS asap.
Yeah, I see them having to do the 5 month later 3rd version twice before people realize what is happening and then soon after that the generation transition will happen. Would be pretty sad if Level 5 manages to destroy what they've built, I hope they take steps to not let that happen.
 

Salex_

Member
Sep 13, 2013
3,836
0
0
Once ff xv launches the ps4 will do a 180 in terms of sales at least that's what Sony fans believe/pray for. Hell, less than a year ago some were still saying it'd outsell the ps3.
Why don't you say "fans of Japanese console games" instead of that? Don't label people who wants to continue to play JP games on the big screen as "Sony fans".

And most people are saying that the combination of the 2015 Japanese games and maybe a price drop will help the system put up acceptable/great numbers. Not sure where you got those "beliefs" and "prayers" from. Got any links to those posts?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
As far as third entries go, best selling Pokemon is Platinum at 2,6-2,7m and B2/W2 at 3,0-3,1m. Shin Uchi will beat at least Platinum.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Ok, I promised this yesterday, but sorry for the delay.

Time for brand new analysis on Dragon Quest V on Android.

Yesterday, the game's GP page updated, showing it is over 50,000 downloads now. This means that it reached this goal on January 4th, 2015.
The game started appearing in Android charts on December 13th, 2014, so it took slightly less than one month.

Paid Download Ranking

After having been first for quite some time, the game left the first place on December 28th, and it reached its worst placement on December 31st, 6th. Since then, it recovered and yesterday it was back at 2nd.

We know how many days the game took to cross 50,000 downloads, the amount of downloads and the price (1,800 Yen)...we can do some math.

Average daily Download - 2,000 up to January 4th, 2015
Total Grossing - 90,000,000 Yen up to January 4th, 2015
Average daily Grossing - 3,600,000 Yen up to January 4th, 2015

Grossing Ranking

Since December 25th, 2014 (the last day I posted an update on the game's performance), it saw a steady and slow decline, which brought it at 67th on January 1st. But these past few days saw a sudden increase of that decline, and since January 4th the game went out of top 100.

Now, the game has occupied the top spot in the Paid Download Ranking between December 14th and December 27th. In the meanwhile, the game saw much more movement in the Grossing Ranking: it started at 55th, proceeded to steadily rise, peaking at 28th on December 17th, and staying around 30th till December 20th, and then it started steadily declining, reaching 60th on December 27th. And then, a bit of steady but not that big decline and, starting from January 2nd, the big drop off. In the past few days, despite the game going quite down in Grossing charts, in the Paid Download Ranking it actually went up, which probably means that there are brand new games that gross more, so much that, despite doing better than a few days ago, DQV goes out of top 100 in Grossing Rankings.

Considering how Grossing Rankings daily average includes the past few days, we can say that the game was grossing quite a bit more than 3,600,00 Yen/daily when it was in its best period, around 30ths. How much? The big drop off happened recently, and it stayed between 30th and 60th for a while, and these are out of top 2, thus there's a possibility differencies between placements are quite lower. So, I'd guess that being around 30th means grossing around 4,500,000 - 5,000,000 Yen per day, and, so, it takes just 2,500 - 2,778 downloads per day to top Paid Download Charts on Google Play.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
Anyone here has contact with MCVUK? We haven't famitsu reports for these weeks from them (so no seperated PSV and 3DS numbers):

2014.07.28 - 2014.08.03
2014.09.08 - 2014.09.14
2014.10.20 - 2014.10.26
2014.12.15 - 2014.12.21
 

Spiegel

Member
Feb 20, 2007
7,957
0
970
Spain
I just remembered about the 2014 full year predictions. Will we be getting the results soon, Road?

I think I predicted PS4 selling 1.5M and Vita 1.8M. Heh.
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Speaking of Bloodborne... here's a curious little query that I got as an idea when Nirolak posted the Souls numbers in another thread: will Kirby and/or Yoshi sell more than Bloodborne? Moreover, which will move more hardware (% difference from week before to week of release)?

Looking at past numbers of the series' roots, Kirby has been a stronger seller in Japan than the Souls series (PS3) unless my numbers are off. I see Epic Yarn (given on the Wii) was ~500,000, and Triple Deluxe (3DS) was ~457,000 as of Feb2014. However I don't think Kirby/Yoshi are known hardware movers at all.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
sörine;146210351 said:
No it doesn't really. Gamecube didn't have NSMB, Wii Party/Sports/Fit, DKCR, Kirby, DQX, MH3, Taiko, Just Dance or other big Wii sellers. Gamecube was just a very different platform.

PS3 was also something of an outlier if we look at Japanese sales though. Despite a heavy 3rd party commitment and artifically extended lifecycle it only sold about half as well as the previous 3 PlayStations. Makes you wonder what those trends will look like this time around.
It lost its casual audience to other platforms just like in the west. Not to mention of course some big franchises like DQ and booming MH. What audience is PS4 going to lose compared to PS3? Those decades old MGS, RE and FF fanbases? Also regarding WiiU as soon as we saw that it's not going to be same kind of casual hit as Wii everyone knew that games like Wii series and Just Dance are going to bomb as the audience just is not going to be there. WiiU is bought by the same audiences that bought GC and N64 and you can see it from hw sales and sw sales. PS4 will be bought by people that bought PS3 with some decline as the whole deticated gaming industry is taking big hit in Japan.
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,529
0
0
I just remembered about the 2014 full year predictions. Will we be getting the results soon, Road?

I think I predicted PS4 selling 1.5M and Vita 1.8M. Heh.
I remember doing a prediction, but do you have a link to that thread? I'm interested to see how horrible I did.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,299
105
680
Speaking of Bloodborne... here's a curious little query that I got as an idea when Nirolak posted the Souls numbers in another thread: will Kirby and/or Yoshi sell more than Bloodborne? Moreover, which will move more hardware (% difference from week before to week of release)?

Looking at past numbers of the series' roots, Kirby has been a stronger seller in Japan than the Souls series (PS3) unless my numbers are off. I see Epic Yarn (given on the Wii) was ~500,000, and Triple Deluxe (3DS) was ~457,000 as of Feb2014. However I don't think Kirby/Yoshi are known hardware movers at all.
17 WII Kirby's Return to Dream Land 144,121 695,464 Nintendo 2011-10-
28 WII Kirby's Epic Yarn 109,253 492,588 Nintendo 2010-10-14
20 - 3DS Kirby: Triple Deluxe 225,448 699,681 Nintendo 2014-01-11

Kirby normally is much bigger than the Souls series, at least on successful platforms.
Yoshi's New Island was a fairly big decline from Yoshi's Island DS (~300K from 1M+), so you never know.

However, while Nintendo's staples have been selling relatively well compared to the rest of the software on Wii U (3D World, Mario Kart 8, Smash Wii U so far), the Wii U is really cutting the legs that most of these titles would normally have (look at Pikmin 3's 232K vs. the GC games LTD of ~500K). Also pretty much every new effort to a Nintendo console has flopped horribly in JP, except Hyrule Warriors to an extent, which likely under-performed (100K+).
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
It lost its casual audience to other platforms just like in the west. Not to mention of course some big franchises like DQ and booming MH. What audience is PS4 going to lose compared to PS3? Those decades old MGS, RE and FF fanbases? Also regarding WiiU as soon as we saw that it's not going to be same kind of casual hit as Wii everyone knew that games like Wii series and Just Dance are going to bomb as the audience just is not going to be there. WiiU is bought by the same audiences that bought GC and N64 and you can see it from hw sales and sw sales. PS4 will be bought by people that bought PS3 with some decline as the whole deticated gaming industry is taking big hit in Japan.
What audience did PS3 lose comparing to PS2?
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,299
105
680
What audience did PS3 lose comparing to PS2?
Well, did the PS3 have any real new JP hits that the PS2 didn't have? Is Souls the biggest new IP on PS3 that hadn't debuted on PS2? It seems to me that if you only have more sequels of the same games, you're pretty much guaranteed a decline gen over gen since it's the new hits that grow the audience right?
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
0
0
www.wiitalia.it
17 WII Kirby's Return to Dream Land 144,121 695,464 Nintendo 2011-10-
28 WII Kirby's Epic Yarn 109,253 492,588 Nintendo 2010-10-14
20 - 3DS Kirby: Triple Deluxe 225,448 699,681 Nintendo 2014-01-11

Kirby normally is much bigger than the Souls series, at least on successful platforms.
Yoshi's New Island was a fairly big decline from Yoshi's Island DS (~300K from 2M+), so you never know.
To be precise, Yoshi's Island DS sold 1m in Japan. Still a big decline, of course.

As far as third entries go, best selling Pokemon is Platinum at 2,6-2,7m and B2/W2 at 3,0-3,1m. Shin Uchi will beat at least Platinum.
Crazy considering how much more similar Shin Uchi is to YW2, and how much close it has been released wrt to DP -> Pt.

Yo-kai Watch 3 will show if the franchise has peaked or not. I'm not sure Level 5 will release it at summer again, maybe they'll wait a bit longer this time (or maybe not).
The most interesting thing is too see whether L5 will have something more than YW in 2015.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
What audience did PS3 lose comparing to PS2?
People that made games like Derby Stallion and Taiko plus 500k sellers. Of course it lost also some of the core audience with huge franchises like DQ jumping the ship and with booming haldheld market (PSP was pretty much like portable PS2). I just don't know what is there left to lose this time around? Sure FF probably sees another decline and so on but it's still nothing like situation with some WiiU casual games that used to be million sellers on Wii.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Dec 17, 2008
11,738
0
0
People that made games like Derby Stallion and Taiko plus 500k sellers. Of course it lost also some of the core audience with huge franchises like DQ jumping the ship and with booming haldheld market (PSP was pretty much like portable PS2). I just don't know what is there left to lose this time around? Sure FF probably sees another decline and so on but it's still nothing like situation with some WiiU casual games that used to be million sellers on Wii.
PS2 also lost many big franchises at transition from PS1, but I didn't see it dropping half in hw and many times below in software because it had the power to create new. The only big title lost was Dragon Quest. 3DS+mobile is stronger than what DS+PSP was.
 

Days like these...

Poonani should have a ph balance of 0
Oct 10, 2004
3,776
32
1,485
Why don't you say "fans of Japanese console games" instead of that? Don't label people who wants to continue to play JP games on the big screen as "Sony fans".

And most people are saying that the combination of the 2015 Japanese games and maybe a price drop will help the system put up acceptable/great numbers. Not sure where you got those "beliefs" and "prayers" from. Got any links to those posts?
Because some of us have been saying the home console market is fucked in Japan well before the ps4 launched while Sony fans argued. "No, no nothing to see here. It's just that the Wii u is an 'undesirable product'" and now well here we are hanging our hopes on ff xv, bloodborne and possibly dq xi exclusivity to save the PS 4 and home console gaming in Japan.
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,299
105
680
Portables & Home Consoles 6th / 7th / 8th Gen Yearly Performances (Famitsu):

By yearly sales:
1. DS (2006) 8,862,969
2. DS (2007) 7,143,702
3. 3DS (2012) 5,626,763
4. 3DS (2013) 4,931,509
5. GBA (2001) 4,200,311
6. 3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (launch / 44 weeks of data)
7. DS (2008) 4,029,804
8. DS (2009) 4,025,313
9. DS (2005) 4,002,871
10. PS2 (2000) 3,748,200
11. WII (2007) 3,629,361
12. GBA (2003) 3,613,259
13. PS2 (2002) 3,652,800
14. PS2 (2001) 3,603,700
15. PSP (2008) 3,543,171
16. GBA (2002) 3,366,723
17. 3DS (2014) 3,153,045
18. PSP (2007) 3,022,659
19. DS (2010) 2,963,709
20. WII (2008) 2,908,342
21. PSP (2010) 2,890,476
22. PS2 (2003) 2,812,514
23. PS2 (2004) 2,750,776
24. GBA (2004) 2,574,987
25. PSP (2009) 2,307,971
26. PSP (2005) 2,225,799
27. PS2 (2005) 2,134,863
28. WII (2009) 1,975,178
29. PSP (2011) 1,960,177
30. PSP (2006) 1,946,911
31. WII (2010) 1,728,293
32. PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
33. PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
34. PS2 (2006) 1,547,866
35. PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
36. PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
37. GBA (2005) 1,255,011
38. PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
39. PSV (2013) 1,197,980
40. PSV (2014) 1,147,938
41. DS (2004) 1,095,930 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
42. GC (2003) 1,039,687
43. GC (2002) 1,034,484
44. PS3 (2008) 991,303
45. WII (2006) 989,118 (launch / 5 weeks of data)
46. PSP (2012) 941,992
47. WII (2011) 937,451
48. GC (2001) 925,924
49. PS4 (2014) 925,570 (launch / 45 weeks of data)
50. WIU (2013) 880,088
51. PS3 (2013) 824,167
52. PS2 (2007) 816,419
53. DS (2011) 711,204
54. PSV (2012) 674,365
55. WIU (2012) 638,339 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
56. GC (2004) 608,163
57. WIU (2014) 604,856
58. WII (2012) 492,999
59. PS2 (2008) 480,664
60. PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
61. PS3 (2014) 450,034
62. GBA (2006) 433,336
63. PSP (2013) 429,393
64. PSV (2011) 402,794 (launch / 2 weeks of data)
65. PSP (2004) 339,944 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
66. 360 (2009) 331,706
67. 360 (2008) 317,859
68. GC (2005) 305,000
69. 360 (2007) 257,841
70. PS2 (2009) 256,131
71. 360 (2010) 208,790
72. 360 (2006) 208,697
73. 360 (2011) 114,075
74. PS2 (2010) ~90,000
75. GC (2006) 89,775
76. 360 (2005) 81,770 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
77. WII (2013) 77,337
78. GBA (2007) 74,089
79. 360 (2012) 67,273
80. XB1 (2014) 45,958 (launch / 17 weeks of data)
81. DS (2012) 28,627
82. 360 (2013) 19,548
Home Consoles 6th / 7th / 8th Gen Yearly Performances (Famitsu):

By yearly sales:

1. PS2 (2000) 3,748,200
2. WII (2007) 3,629,361
3. PS2 (2002) 3,652,800
4. PS2 (2001) 3,603,700
5. WII (2008) 2,908,342
6. PS2 (2003) 2,812,514
7. PS2 (2004) 2,750,776
8. PS2 (2005) 2,134,863
9. WII (2009) 1,975,178
10. WII (2010) 1,728,293
11. PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
12. PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
13. PS2 (2006) 1,547,866
14. PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
15. PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
16. PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
17. GC (2003) 1,039,687
18. GC (2002) 1,034,484
19. PS3 (2008) 991,303
20. WII (2006) 989,118 (launch / 5 weeks of data)
21. WII (2011) 937,451
22. GC (2001) 925,924
23. PS4 (2014) 925,570 (launch / 45 weeks of data)
24. WIU (2013) 880,088
25. PS3 (2013) 824,167
26. PS2 (2007) 816,419
27. WIU (2012) 638,339 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
28. GC (2004) 608,163
29. WIU (2014) 604,856
30. WII (2012) 492,999
31. PS2 (2008) 480,664
32. PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
33. PS3 (2014) 450,034
34. 360 (2009) 331,706
35. 360 (2008) 317,859
36. GC (2005) 305,000
37. 360 (2007) 257,841
38. PS2 (2009) 256,131
39. 360 (2010) 208,790
40. 360 (2006) 208,697
41. 360 (2011) 114,075
42. PS2 (2010) ~90,000
43. GC (2006) 89,775
44. 360 (2005) 81,770 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
45. WII (2013) 77,337
46. 360 (2012) 67,273
47. XB1 (2014) 45,958 (launch / 17 weeks of data)
48. 360 (2013) 19,548
Adding 2014 data to what I had in last year's week 52 thread.
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
7,602
0
0
Brazil
sites.google.com
Prediction League 2013 Year Results

Congratulations to:

- Baki, for winning by units!
- hiska-kun, for winning by mean error %!


Code:
BY UNITS                                    BY MEAN ERROR %                            
                                                                           
  1    3,321,725  Baki                        1    28.50%  hiska-kun       
  2    3,483,103  airmangataosenai            2    30.65%  airmangataosenai
  3    3,551,360  hiska-kun                   3    33.43%  Baki            
  4    3,738,439  DaBoss                      4    38.66%  XDDX            
  5    3,762,403  XDDX                        5    39.29%  Rock_Man        
  6    3,931,361  Rock_Man                    6    39.84%  DaBoss          
  7    4,042,468  Road                        7    41.52%  Bruno MB        
  8    4,239,027  Bruno MB                    8    42.63%  Road            
  9    4,593,208  lunchwithyuzo               9    44.46%  Kenka           
 10    4,672,154  saichi                     10    46.60%  Aad             
 11    5,272,767  metalslimer                11    48.69%  lunchwithyuzo   
 12    5,316,179  Kenka                      12    49.85%  saichi          
 13    5,566,061  MasterSheen                13    51.21%  starship        
 14    5,731,361  Aad                        14    52.04%  metalslimer     
 15    5,849,403  donny2112                  15    52.15%  MasterSheen     
 16    6,162,403  serplux                    16    55.50%  donny2112       
 17    6,363,049  michaelius                 17    57.41%  Mr Swine        
 18    6,562,403  Exterminieren              18    58.20%  serplux         
 19    6,562,403  Yeshua                     19    59.24%  michaelius      
 20    6,872,767  The_lascar                 20    60.11%  Orgen           
 21    6,962,403  starship                   21    60.16%  KingSnake       
 22    7,049,027  Nekki                      22    60.18%  The_lascar      
 23    7,336,027  Orgen                      23    61.34%  Exterminieren   
 24    7,549,027  KingSnake                  24    62.26%  DrWong          
 25    8,262,403  DrWong                     25    63.39%  Yeshua          
 26    8,299,685  Mr Swine                   26    63.49%  Nekki           
 27   10,709,767  Gianni Merryman            27    66.75%  Gianni Merryman 
 28   12,972,767  grimshawish                28    76.24%  grimshawish     
 
 
                                        |FAMITSU  |grimshawi|Baki     |serplux  |KingSnake|Mr Swine |michaeliu|metalslim|MasterShe|Extermini|DrWong   |lunchwith|donny2112|airmangat|XDDX     |Yeshua   |starship |Bruno MB |Nekki    |Orgen    |hiska-kun|Gianni Me|Rock_Man |Aad      |Road     |saichi   |DaBoss   |The_lasca|Kenka    
[3DS] Hardware -                        |4,931,509| 10000000|  6100000|  6800000|  7200000|  6800000|  7000000|  6400000|  6500000|  6900000|  8000000|  6567890|  6500000|  5900000|  6300000|  5500000|  7500000|  6475000|  6500000|  6852000|  5999999|  8800000|  5950000|  6000000|  5777777|  6666666|  5788800|  6500000|  6400000
[WIU] Hardware -                        |  880,088|  2200000|   890000|  2100000|  2700000|  3400000|  1600000|  1800000|  1800000|  1500000|  2100000|  1678901|  2000000|  1100000|  1380000|  2500000|  2300000|  1530000|  1800000|  2193000|  1090000|  2700000|  1450000|  2000000|  1777777|  1888888|  1666666|  2500000|  2500000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y -                     |3,976,829|  6000000|  4400000|  4000000|  5100000|  2900000|  3400000|  4700000|  3500000|  4600000|  4800000|  4321098|  4000000|  4500000|  4350000|  4200000|  5100000|  4450000|  4900000|  5111000|  4800000|  5400000|  4175000|  5000000|  4444444|  4303333|  4222222|  4400000|  3400000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 -                |3,293,312|  5500000|  3300000|  3400000|  2900000|  2600000|  3200000|  3800000|  4000000|  3700000|  4400000|  3456789|  4000000|  2700000|  3400000|  3900000|  3900000|  3100000|  2500000|  2799000|  3799000|  4500000|  4220000|  4500000|  3777777|  3265555|  3122222|  3800000|  3550000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf -       |1,730,182|  1600000|  1150000|  2200000|  1900000|  2100000|  1500000|  1500000|  2000000|  2300000|  1800000|  1678901|  2112000|  1500000|  2000000|  2000000|  2000000|  2220000|  2000000|  1926000|  1906000|  1200000|  1960000|  2000000|  2333333|  1898989|  2110000|  1650000|  1280000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII -                |1,227,377|  2100000|  1300000|  1400000|  1500000|  1500000|  2400000|  1600000|  1600000|  2100000|  1900000|  1567890|  2000000|  1200000|  1620000|  2000000|  1300000|  1350000|  2200000|  1865000|  1465000|  1800000|  1575000|  1500000|  1333333|  1515151|  1555555|  1600000|  1225000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 -         |  445,241|   800000|  1010000|  1500000|  1000000|  1300000|  1000000|   900000|  1000000|   900000|   900000|   987650|   725000|  1100000|   850000|  1500000|   850000|   850000|  1100000|  1238000|   658000|  1100000|   710000|  1000000|   777777|   898989|  1220100|  1400000|  1100000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U -         |  584,479|  1400000|   550000|  1300000|  1200000|   865000|   900000|   900000|   800000|  1100000|   950000|   901234|  1000000|   400000|   600000|  1300000|   800000|   675000|  1000000|   964000|   369000|   850000|   390000|   500000|   444444|   944444|   510000|  1300000|   600000
[WIU] Nintendo Land -                   |   168580|   350000|   630000|   700000|   500000|   532000|   800000|   450000|   650000|   700000|   650000|   567890|   750000|   250000|   500000|   900000|   450000|   440000|   700000|   637000|   271000|   537000|   350000|   300000|   333333|   472222|   289333|   800000|   440000
 
TOTAL ABS. DIFF.                        |         |12,972,76|3,321,725|6,162,403|7,549,027|8,299,685|6,363,049|5,272,767|5,566,061|6,562,403|8,262,403|4,593,208|5,849,403|3,483,103|3,762,403|6,562,403|6,962,403|4,239,027|7,049,027|7,336,027|3,551,360|10,709,76|3,931,361|5,731,361|4,042,468|4,672,154|3,738,439|6,872,767|5,316,179
MEAN ERROR %                            |         |   76.24%|   33.43%|   58.20%|   60.16%|   57.41%|   59.24%|   52.04%|   52.15%|   61.34%|   62.26%|   48.69%|   55.50%|   30.65%|   38.66%|   63.39%|   51.21%|   41.52%|   63.49%|   60.11%|   28.50%|   66.75%|   39.29%|   46.60%|   42.63%|   49.85%|   39.84%|   60.18%|   44.46%
 
STATISTICS                              |  FAMITSU|  GAF_AVG|      MIN|      MAX|    UNDER|     OVER|  CLOSEST BY      
[3DS] Hardware -                        |4,931,509|6,702,790|5,500,000|10,000,00|         |     100%|5,500,000 Yeshua
[WIU] Hardware -                        |  880,088|1,933,758|  890,000|3,400,000|         |     100%|  890,000 Baki
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y -                     |3,976,829|4,445,611|2,900,000|6,000,000|      14%|      86%|4,000,000 serplux
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 -                |3,293,312|3,610,369|2,500,000|5,500,000|      32%|      68%|3,300,000 Baki
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf -       |1,730,182|1,850,901|1,150,000|2,333,333|      32%|      68%|1,678,901 lunchwithyuzo
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII -                |1,227,377|1,645,426|1,200,000|2,400,000|       7%|      93%|1,225,000 Kenka
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 -         |  445,241|1,013,411|  658,000|1,500,000|         |     100%|  658,000 hiska-kun
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U -         |  584,479|  839,754|  369,000|1,400,000|      25%|      75%|  600,000 XDDX
[WIU] Nintendo Land -                   |  168,580|  533,921|  250,000|  900,000|         |     100%|  250,000 airmangataosenai
-- What Wii U could have been... Even below the lowest prediction.
-- Didn't remember people were so crazy for 3DS sales. Below the lowest as well.
-- I wonder why I didn't put Vita in there. Probably angry for Sony hiding the sales. haha

I just remembered about the 2014 full year predictions. Will we be getting the results soon, Road?

I think I predicted PS4 selling 1.5M and Vita 1.8M. Heh.
2014 results soon, but first a blast from the past. I had never posted the 2013 full year (despite Bruno MB reminding me...).
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,299
105
680
Arranged by year and console

By yearly sales:
5. GBA (2001) 4,200,311
16. GBA (2002) 3,366,723
12. GBA (2003) 3,613,259
24. GBA (2004) 2,574,987
37. GBA (2005) 1,255,011
62. GBA (2006) 433,336
78. GBA (2007) 74,089

10. PS2 (2000) 3,748,200
14. PS2 (2001) 3,603,700
13. PS2 (2002) 3,652,800
22. PS2 (2003) 2,812,514
23. PS2 (2004) 2,750,776
27. PS2 (2005) 2,134,863
34. PS2 (2006) 1,547,866
52. PS2 (2007) 816,419
59. PS2 (2008) 480,664
70. PS2 (2009) 256,131
74. PS2 (2010) ~90,000

48. GC (2001) 925,924
43. GC (2002) 1,034,484
42. GC (2003) 1,039,687
56. GC (2004) 608,163
68. GC (2005) 305,000
75. GC (2006) 89,775

--------------------------------------

41. DS (2004) 1,095,930 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
9. DS (2005) 4,002,871
1. DS (2006) 8,862,969
2. DS (2007) 7,143,702
7. DS (2008) 4,029,804
8. DS (2009) 4,025,313
19. DS (2010) 2,963,709
53. DS (2011) 711,204
81. DS (2012) 28,627

45. WII (2006) 989,118 (launch / 5 weeks of data)
11. WII (2007) 3,629,361
20. WII (2008) 2,908,342
28. WII (2009) 1,975,178
31. WII (2010) 1,728,293
47. WII (2011) 937,451
58. WII (2012) 492,999
77. WII (2013) 77,337

65. PSP (2004) 339,944 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
26. PSP (2005) 2,225,799
30. PSP (2006) 1,946,911
18. PSP (2007) 3,022,659
15. PSP (2008) 3,543,171
25. PSP (2009) 2,307,971
21. PSP (2010) 2,890,476
29. PSP (2011) 1,960,177
46. PSP (2012) 941,992
63. PSP (2013) 429,393

60. PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
38. PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
44. PS3 (2008) 991,303
32. PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
33. PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
35. PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
36. PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
51. PS3 (2013) 824,167
61. PS3 (2014) 450,034


76. 360 (2005) 81,770 (launch / 3 weeks of data)
72. 360 (2006) 208,697
69. 360 (2007) 257,841
67. 360 (2008) 317,859
66. 360 (2009) 331,706
71. 360 (2010) 208,790
73. 360 (2011) 114,075
79. 360 (2012) 67,273
82. 360 (2013) 19,548
--------------------------------------

6. 3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (launch / 44 weeks of data)
3. 3DS (2012) 5,626,763
4. 3DS (2013) 4,931,509
17. 3DS (2014) 3,153,045

64. PSV (2011) 402,794 (launch / 2 weeks of data)
54. PSV (2012) 674,365
39. PSV (2013) 1,197,980
40. PSV (2014) 1,147,938


49. PS4 (2014) 925,570 (launch / 45 weeks of data)

55. WIU (2012) 638,339 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
50. WIU (2013) 880,088
57. WIU (2014) 604,856

80. XB1 (2014) 45,958 (launch / 17 weeks of data)
This is arranged by console.

Next quote is arranged by year.

Arranged by year

By yearly sales:

2000:
10. PS2 (2000) 3,748,200

2001:
5. GBA (2001) 4,200,311
14. PS2 (2001) 3,603,700
48. GC (2001) 925,924

2002:
13. PS2 (2002) 3,652,800
16. GBA (2002) 3,366,723
43. GC (2002) 1,034,484

2003:
12. GBA (2003) 3,613,259
22. PS2 (2003) 2,812,514
42. GC (2003) 1,039,687

2004:
23. PS2 (2004) 2,750,776
24. GBA (2004) 2,574,987
41. DS (2004) 1,095,930 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
56. GC (2004) 608,163
65. PSP (2004) 339,944 (launch / 3 weeks of data)

2005:
9. DS (2005) 4,002,871
26. PSP (2005) 2,225,799
27. PS2 (2005) 2,134,863
37. GBA (2005) 1,255,011
68. GC (2005) 305,000
76. 360 (2005) 81,770 (launch / 3 weeks of data)

2006:
1. DS (2006) 8,862,969
30. PSP (2006) 1,946,911
34. PS2 (2006) 1,547,866
45. WII (2006) 989,118 (launch / 5 weeks of data)
60. PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
62. GBA (2006) 433,336
72. 360 (2006) 208,697
75. GC (2006) 89,775

2007:
2. DS (2007) 7,143,702
11. WII (2007) 3,629,361
18. PSP (2007) 3,022,659
38. PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
52. PS2 (2007) 816,419
69. 360 (2007) 257,841
78. GBA (2007) 74,089

2008:
7. DS (2008) 4,029,804
15. PSP (2008) 3,543,171
20. WII (2008) 2,908,342
44. PS3 (2008) 991,303
59. PS2 (2008) 480,664
67. 360 (2008) 317,859

2009:
8. DS (2009) 4,025,313
25. PSP (2009) 2,307,971
28. WII (2009) 1,975,178
32. PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
66. 360 (2009) 331,706
70. PS2 (2009) 256,131

2010:
19. DS (2010) 2,963,709
21. PSP (2010) 2,890,476
31. WII (2010) 1,728,293
33. PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
71. 360 (2010) 208,790
74. PS2 (2010) ~90,000

2011:
6. 3DS (2011) 4,135,739 (launch / 44 weeks of data)
29. PSP (2011) 1,960,177
35. PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
47. WII (2011) 937,451
53. DS (2011) 711,204
64. PSV (2011) 402,794 (launch / 2 weeks of data)
73. 360 (2011) 114,075

2012:
3. 3DS (2012) 5,626,763
36. PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
46. PSP (2012) 941,992
54. PSV (2012) 674,365
55. WIU (2012) 638,339 (launch / 4 weeks of data)
58. WII (2012) 492,999
79. 360 (2012) 67,273
81. DS (2012) 28,627

2013:
4. 3DS (2013) 4,931,509
39. PSV (2013) 1,197,980
50. WIU (2013) 880,088
51. PS3 (2013) 824,167
63. PSP (2013) 429,393
77. WII (2013) 77,337
82. 360 (2013) 19,548

2014:
17. 3DS (2014) 3,153,045
40. PSV (2014) 1,147,938
49. PS4 (2014) 925,570 (launch / 45 weeks of data)
57. WIU (2014) 604,856
61. PS3 (2014) 450,034
80. XB1 (2014) 45,958 (launch / 17 weeks of data)
 

Road

Member
Jan 21, 2008
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There's still time, by the way (this month is so boring, though).

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 29/2014 to Jan 25/2015):

[3DS] Yokai Watch 2 Shinuchi (28 days) - 444,444
[3DS] Kenka Bancho 6 (11 days) - 44,444
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (4 days) - 222,222
[3DS] Legend of Legacy (4 days) - 44,444
[WIU] Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (4 days) - 44,444
[ALL] Far Cry 4 (4 days) - 44,444


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: January 7th 2015 08:00 am (EST)
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
4,504
1
0
44
Japan
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There's still time, by the way (this month is so boring, though).

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2015
I voted in last week topic, is that ok?



about YW peak, I think since 2 the userbase grew up, that's not another reason why YW2.5 debutted as 2 combined did, considering the game is the same and also 2 slowed down a lot since 2.5 arrived, while YW still managed to sell decently after 2 was out cause they were different games

In the other hands I feel YW affected in some ways Pokemon, usually after a release the oldest game comes back to chart, especially during winter season, but X/Y never appeared and LTD are lower than latest main releases;
considering AC came back and now it's aiming for the top spot, X/Y didn't have long legs at all, especially considering Pokemon games always had
 

Parakeetman

No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Feb 22, 2012
23,672
0
0
The Wii U had a strong line up this year (by all accounts) and was down on last year, but I suppose the Wii U can't fit in to that.
yeah no

overall unless you are some sort of nintendo hardliner the overall library for the wiiu here just is not all that interesting
 

monpiece

Banned
Oct 2, 2014
259
0
0
I voted in last week topic, is that ok?



about YW peak, I think since 2 the userbase grew up, that's not another reason why YW2.5 debutted as 2 combined did, considering the game is the same and also 2 slowed down a lot since 2.5 arrived, while YW still managed to sell decently after 2 was out cause they were different games

In the other hands I feel YW affected in some ways Pokemon, usually after a release the oldest game comes back to chart, especially during winter season, but X/Y never appeared and LTD are lower than latest main releases;
considering AC came back and now it's aiming for the top spot, X/Y didn't have long legs at all, especially considering Pokemon games always had
I was looking at Dengeki, that releases combined software for each platform, and 2013 week 51 FY (started in April) software for 3DS is roughly the same number of 2014 week 51. Despite YW success (and LTD hardware growth), there was no growth in software. YW surely cannibalized some sales of other big hitters, especially Pokémon.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
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yeah no

overall unless you are some sort of nintendo hardliner the overall library for the wiiu here just is not all that interesting
Nintendo, among others, were still seemingly under the impression that their own output would be sufficient to revive/sustain their flagging system and/or that exclusive output amounts to a strong line up in and of itself.

I don't think a day went by last year when there wasn't some sort of list-war exclusive appendage measuring thread on the front page.

Last year's performance should have been the wake up call that the most ardent fanbase that which needs to have a system for the platform holder's output, is not a substantial enough market. Two of Nintendo's biggest brands came out for the system. And it dropped nearly 300K Y/Y.

As Niro put earlier, it should be a call to change of strategy. Should being the operative word. Whether it will is another question, given how obstinate the company we're talking about can be at times.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
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Nintendo, among others, were still seemingly under the impression that their own output would be sufficient to revive/sustain their flagging system and/or that exclusive output amounts to a strong line up in and of itself.

I don't think a day went by last year when there wasn't some sort of list-war exclusive appendage measuring thread on the front page.

Last year's performance should have been the wake up call that the most ardent fanbase that which needs to have a system for the platform holder's output, is not a substantial enough market. Two of Nintendo's biggest brands came out for the system. And it dropped nearly 300K Y/Y.

As Niro put earlier, it should be a call to change of strategy. Should being the operative word. Whether it will is another question, given how obstinate the company we're talking about can be at times.
Honestly, considering what said by Iwata one year ago, there seems to be a major change going on already, though (if NintendOS is really executed as iOS/Android mentions make us think). And the completition of the unification of handheld and home R&D is the first sign of that materialising. These results for Wii U, at this point, while (unfortunately) being a call for change, are also more salt in profound wounds, since there's already work behind the scenes going on, seemingly. :(
 
Jul 31, 2007
24,446
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0
35
Kansas, USA
overall unless you are some sort of nintendo hardliner the overall library for the wiiu here just is not all that interesting
We actually come onto something similar with the PS4.

Though I personally think it's a larger pool of buyers to play into, but FF, MGS, potentially DQ. This seems like a pretty standard Playstation lineup of hits. Without a lot of the smaller filler. This is part of the reason that the top end of my projections are still a loss from PS3 unit sale tallies. 5-7 million units are my range. That's with consistent sustained increases from key software releases.

Because its current norm is maybe cracking 3 million units in six years. Normalized weekly sales being the focus. Barring launch and holiday seasons.

If those releases don't have an appreciable effect, the system will see a WiiU like life.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
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Honestly, considering what said by Iwata one year ago, there seems to be a major change going on already, though (if NintendOS is really executed as iOS/Android mentions make us think). And the completition of the unification of handheld and home R&D is the first sign of that materialising. These results for Wii U, at this point, while (unfortunately) being a call for change, are also more salt in profound wounds, since there's already work behind the scenes going on, seemingly. :(
Suffice to say I don't have the same degree of unbridled confidence and optimism that Nintendo will execute well and execute in a timely enough fashion.
Nintendo is no Apple. It is no Google.

I also think that in part these musings on here of a unified platform or operating system solving their problems, stems from looking for the "quick fix."

People know Nintendo need to change. But they either don't want Nintendo to change, and/or don't want them to change too much.

The market forces pushing at Nintendo won't be solved by a quick fix. They face challenges to their entire business model, their raison d'être, at least as they currently exist.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
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Suffice to say I don't have the same degree of unbridled confidence and optimism that Nintendo will execute well and execute in a timely enough fashion.
Nintendo is no Apple. It is no Google.

I also think that in part these musings on here of a unified platform or operating system solving their problems, stems from looking for the "quick fix."

People know Nintendo need to change. But they either don't want Nintendo to change, and/or don't want them to change too much.

The market forces pushing at Nintendo won't be solved by a quick fix.
I'm not sure Nintendo will actually pull it off but I don't think it is as much as a quick fix as it seems. There is many things about the Wii U and (N)3DS that look like proof of concepts for converging the two devices. The most obvious one being that the two devices now have all the same inputs(Wii U has clicky sticks though) which is a big convergence already.
 

Moor-Angol

Banned
Aug 26, 2005
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44
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I was looking at Dengeki, that releases combined software for each platform, and 2013 week 51 FY (started in April) software for 3DS is roughly the same number of 2014 week 51. Despite YW success (and LTD hardware growth), there was no growth in software. YW surely cannibalized some sales of other big hitters, especially Pokémon.
That's what I'm feeling, especially when I walk around the street and look at what people are doing, I noticed younger audience really got into YW franchise, so in some ways it could have attacched Pokemon sales.
But also I remembered Chris answering me that big franchises can coesists on strong platforms, but I'm not so sure in this case.
It should be interesting making some comparisons.



I made a reasearch that could be interesting, taking all main platform (sorry m$ family :D ) from PS2 era, I checked how many games from each top20 has been sold in first semester and how many in the second one.

Code:
home :
PS2 : 11 -  9
NGC :  2 - 18
PS3 :  9 - 11
Wii :  5 - 15
NWU :  5 - 15


handhelds :
GBA :  7 - 13
NDS :  7 - 13
PSP :  7 - 13
3DS :  6 - 14
PSV : 10 - 10

by maker
Code:
Sony
PS2 : 11 -  9
PS3 :  9 - 11
PSP :  7 - 13
PSV : 10 - 10


Nintendo
NGC :  2 - 18
Wii :  5 - 15
NWU :  5 - 15
GBA :  7 - 13
NDS :  7 - 13
3DS :  6 - 14
this might be interesting, especially when I am troll... ehm, about 3DS release calendar which is often weak in Q1
afawk for H1 release list :

3DS - hard to see the comparison changing, actually the biggest hit is Bravely 2nd, but #20 is around 600k (Kirby)
PSV - likely it will change, GE2BR and Digimon are surely a +100k titles so they will push out from the chart Dragon's Crown (H2) and PSO2 (H1)
NWU - weak line-up for H1, but #20 is Bayo2 (48k, H2) and #19 is Just Dance (56k, H1), we hope Kirby will do better than those ones, but probably strongest titles will come on H2


PS : NWU chart is not including Wii Fit U cause it has 2 different release dates, so I included #21 (Fatal Frame 5)
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
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I'm not sure Nintendo will actually pull it off but I don't think it is as much as a quick fix as it seems. There is many things about the Wii U and (N)3DS that look like proof of concepts for converging the two devices. The most obvious one being that the two devices now have all the same inputs(Wii U has clicky sticks though) which is a big convergence already.
There are also shared software efforts like Smash Bros or NES Remix. In terms of game design, interface and fidelity Nintendo's overall software lineups between handheld and console are more similar now than they ever really have been before too. The unified (software) platform really does seem more like an inevitability the way things are going. I wouldn't characterize it as a quick fix either, it seems more like a natural progression.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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I'm not sure Nintendo will actually pull it off but I don't think it is as much as a quick fix as it seems. There is many things about the Wii U and (N)3DS that look like proof of concepts for converging the two devices. The most obvious one being that the two devices now have all the same inputs(Wii U has clicky sticks though) which is a big convergence already.
I don't really mean temporally, there could be much groundwork laid. I'm probably not expressing it right but metaphorically, I'd say people, Nintendo included even, are looking at a bandaid as if it will be bypass surgery.

The impression I get is that whenever we have these discussions about the future of Nintendo/gaming, people are essentially pinning their expectations/hopes on Nintendo 1) successfully executing whatever this convergence is, and 2) that it enables them to keep calm and carry on as always without any other more fundamental changes in business model or philosophy.

But setting aside I don't think 1 is a given at all, consequence 2 I think is something of a pipe dream.

I think the market trends and realities dictate more radical eventual changes, that are probably a step too far in the minds of many on here. (As a for instance, developing for other platforms, NB not those controlled by Sony or Microsoft mind you, where market segments have shifted.)
 

Sandfox

Member
Jan 25, 2012
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I don't really mean temporally, there could be much groundwork laid. I'm probably not expressing it right but metaphorically, I'd say people, Nintendo included even, are looking at a bandaid as if it will be bypass surgery.

The impression I get is that whenever we have these discussions about the future of Nintendo/gaming, people are essentially pinning their expectations/hopes on Nintendo 1) successfully executing whatever this convergence is, and 2) that it enables them to keep calm and carry on as always without any other more fundamental changes in business model or philosophy.

But setting aside I don't think 1 is a given at all, consequence 2 I think is something of a pipe dream.

I think the market trends and realities dictate more radical eventual changes, that are probably a step too far in the minds of many on here. (As a for instance, developing for other platforms, NB not those controlled by Sony or Microsoft mind you, where market segments have shifted.)
I don't really think that's true. Most people seem to want them to make changes and Nintendo doesn't really seem to be just looking at a bandaid fix outside of their short term plans for profitability like Amiibo(though it is early and we don't know much either way).
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
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I don't really mean temporally, there could be much groundwork laid. I'm probably not expressing it right but metaphorically, I'd say people, Nintendo included even, are looking at a bandaid as if it will be bypass surgery.

The impression I get is that whenever we have these discussions about the future of Nintendo/gaming, people are essentially pinning their expectations/hopes on Nintendo 1) successfully executing whatever this convergence is, and 2) that it enables them to keep calm and carry on as always without any other more fundamental changes in business model or philosophy.

But setting aside I don't think 1 is a given at all, consequence 2 I think is something of a pipe dream.

I think the market trends and realities dictate more radical eventual changes, that are probably a step too far in the minds of many on here. (As a for instance, developing for other platforms, NB not those controlled by Sony or Microsoft mind you, where market segments have shifted.)
How eventual are we talking? People have been suggesting Nintendo should go third party for nearly twenty years now. I think the industry is still very unpredictable as well; no one foresaw the DS and Wii or Smartphones or even the PS4.

As to the bolded depending on how full force the convergence is it will completely change the business model for both hardware and software. If they truly follow the iOS and Android model it will arguably be as much of a paradigm shift for them as going third party would be. I definitely don't think it can be dismissed as something minor.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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I don't really think that's true. Most people seem to want them to make changes and Nintendo doesn't really seem to be just looking at a bandaid fix outside of their short term plans for profitability like Amiibo(though it is early and we don't know much either way).
What exactly is their strategic overhaul though you're referring to that goes beyond relatively small steps?

Is a unified operating system really supposed to stall or reverse the affront by pervasive mobile devices?

Their announced diversification effort was also on further revelation, a relatively modest movement.

This is an excerpt from a WSJ article about Eastman Kodak.
Kodak followed a template used by many incumbents facing technological challenges to their hegemony.

First, they try to ignore the new technology hoping it would go away by itself.

Then they deride it using various justifications (too expensive, too slow, too complicated etc). After that, they try to prolong the life of the existing technology by attempting to create synergies between the new technology and the old (like Photo CD). In doing so, they keep delaying any serious commitment to the new order of things.
Nintendo's not really in any situation as dire. But there are certainly parallels there in terms of the response to the technological shifts that have occurred and continue to occur in the industry.
How eventual are we talking? People have been suggesting Nintendo should go third party for nearly twenty years now. I think the industry is still very unpredictable as well; no one foresaw the DS and Wii or Smartphones or even the PS4.

As to the bolded depending on how full force the convergence is it will completely change the business model for both hardware and software. If they truly follow the iOS and Android model it will arguably be as much of a paradigm shift for them as going third party would be. I definitely don't think it can be dismissed as something minor.
Their fundamental philosophy and business model is still grounded on designing platforms around their own software development and selling that hardware based on their own software output, usually using "withered" technology in order to make a gross margin on hardware.

That the market for consoles that needs Nintendo's output is still substantial enough. That the market for dedicated handhelds at all will still be substantial enough.

Do the current environment and market trends really suggest that long term? And if not what are they doing about it?

Also, on the repeated analogy to iOS and Android, people seem to be mistaking what has driven their success as unified models. Not unification across different devices in itself, but the strong two-sided network effects this presents to both consumers and developers. It's why Microsoft's unified Windows platform isn't going to gain traction. Where do these effects derive for a Nintendo operating system across handheld and home devices? It will presumably allow for more Nintendo output across both business lines, probably at the expense of some loss of revenue. It doesn't solve the issue of their ethos/target market and Western third parties being disparate. Is that supposed to generate a compelling proposition against the onslaught of cheap (free), good (simple) and fast (already in my pocket and downloaded at the touch of a button).
 

Vena

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Do the current environment and market trends really suggest that long term? And if not what are they doing about it?
The current market trends suggest that some-budget titles short of the exception of Infinity Blade are one-off success stories with no reliable repetition, and we've seen next to no successful large budget ventures and get eaten/buried alive by derivative works on the cheap that flood the markets, or just low-budget titles in general. We've seen Capcom sink a ton of money into mobile... and now is seemingly out of money and any meaningful returns.

Current market headings and the environment of iOS/Android would, if anything, suggest that there is no healthy market for big-budget games on mobile at all unless some radical changes occur.

Also one thing you're overlooking, in a previous paragraph, is that control of hardware from Nintendo's point of view (and technically also the users) is that they have a consistent ground-work on which they can build their software without having to worry about multiple versions or otherwise, and therefore performance is clear-cut. Mobile games have terrible compatibility issues, and its not a thing that a consumer would likely want to deal with when buying a 20-30$ game. (It's also a capital injection that let's them keep running as a company...)
 

shinra-bansho

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The current market trends suggest that some-budget titles short of the exception of Infinity Blade are one-off success stories with no reliable repetition, and we've seen next to no successful large budget ventures and get eaten/buried alive by derivative works on the cheap that flood the markets, or just low-budget titles in general. We've seen Capcom sink a ton of money into mobile... and now is seemingly out of money and any meaningful returns.

Current market headings and the environment of iOS/Android would, if anything, suggest that there is no healthy market for big-budget games on mobile at all unless some radical changes occur.

Also one thing you're overlooking, in a previous paragraph, is that control of hardware from Nintendo's point of view (and technically also the users) is that they have a consistent ground-work on which they can build their software without having to worry about multiple versions or otherwise, and therefore performance is clear-cut. Mobile games have terrible compatibility issues, and its not a thing that a consumer would likely want to deal with when buying a 20-30$ game. (It's also a capital injection that let's them keep running as a company...)
You're operating under the assumption that in a current and future market in which Nintendo does extend into mobile development, that they would be able to charge or budget what they currently do. I don't think it would be the case.

You paint a bleak picture of mobile, but it isn't going anywhere, and iirc mobile revenues in Japan exceeded the dedicated space recently, and this is expected to happen on a global scale in 2015 by one research firm. If not sooner then later. Capcom being unable to leverage it well doesn't change that. Any of the traditional companies failing at doing so doesn't really change that.

We have a parallel thread running about Japanese dedicated revenues being at their lowest in 24 years, and this is a territory which still accounts for ~30% of Nintendo's net sales.

I probably shouldn't have presented a "for instance" given it becomes the discussion then centres on it. While mobile development is the most obvious, I'm not sure it's the most appropriate shift. That said, they're going to have to do something. And that something's going to need to be more than just unifying business lines.

Because in answer to my deftly avoided somewhat rhetorical question, I don't think that the market for a console specifically for Nintendo's output is substantial enough, nor that long term the market for dedicated handhelds at all will be substantial enough.
 

sörine

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I guess for Nintendo a unified ecosystem could seem like a shorter term solution in the sense that it doesn't really address the perils of being a hardware vendor in the smartphone era. And there are obvious concessions, it may only end up being a backdoor into dumping traditional consoles ultimately. But I'm not sure the idea is really meant to solve those problems directly, I'd assume it's more the hardware and software design and positioning that Nintendo will be looking to answer those questions with. It's probably just too early to be calling any part of Nintendo's future platform strategy a band-aid really at this point.
 

Triplicates

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I probably shouldn't have presented a "for instance" given it becomes the discussion then centres on it. While mobile development is the most obvious, I'm not sure it's the most appropriate shift. That said, they're going to have to do something. And that something's going to need to be more than just unifying business lines.
I'm not convinced they need to do much more. Nintendo is a small company of game developers and hardware designers. If things are really so dire, Nintendo can exit the market or do something else (e.g. QOL) but this is beyond our capacity for meaningful discussion and/or analysis. If they are to remain a game company in any scenario resembling your prediction, the hardware wing would be jettisoned and the game developers would work on other platforms.

If that is fait accompli, then yes it would be better to anticipate the wave now and become mobile developers. But as jarring and significant for the industry as it might be, turning into a third party does not strike me as a move that Nintendo needs to anticipate and prepare for extensively so long as they remain profitable, something for which they are already on the right track. In fact, if convergence materializes as expected (ARM-based systems or some other non-exotic architecture), they are engaged in de facto preparation as their developers gain acquaintance with industry standards.

I'm inclined to agree that Nintendo's position will further deteriorate. The oft-repeated notion of there being a world market for 50 million combined Nintendo devices is not at all a given. That being said, I think the bar for an ecosystem that generates adequate profits (adequate meaning not justifying a radical departure or a market exit) is significantly below 50 million devices.