Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)

saichi

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Apr 8, 2010
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I wonder if Vita can beat the 3DS this year. I anticipate that 3DS will have an even bigger YoY drop this year that could bring it to Vita territory. Maybe Japan will get a 3rd gen Vita as well towards the holidays. It will be very close I reckon.
it will be very close between Vita 2015 and 3DS 2015 Q4.

And a very little drop for the whole year, so what´s your point? Trying to segment it like that does not matter. The overall result that matters.
VITA sold like shit in 2013 and it sold even worse in 2014. 3DS sold amazingly in 2013 and has a big decline in 2014 but still sold almost 3 times its closest competitor. Those would be the overall result that mattered, right?
 

Jamix012

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Jun 6, 2012
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it will be very close between Vita 2015 and 3DS 2015 Q4.
Extremely doubtful. The Vita peaked in 2013 and will probably see a similar % decline that 3DS saw in 2014. I forsee both handhelds selling 50%~ of their 2014 YTD in 2015.
 

hiska-kun

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Mar 9, 2012
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Prediction League 2013 Year Results

Congratulations to:

- Baki, for winning by units!
- hiska-kun, for winning by mean error %!
2013 lol
I didn't remember what i predicted already

Seeing that i didn't do that bad let's predict this month

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 29/2014 to Jan 25/2015):

[3DS] Yokai Watch 2 Shinuchi (28 days) - 399,999
[3DS] Kenka Bancho 6 (11 days) - 29,999
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (4 days) - 200,002
[3DS] Legend of Legacy (4 days) - 56,987
[WIU] Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (4 days) - 24,000
[ALL] Far Cry 4 (4 days) - 49,000
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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You paint a bleak picture of mobile, but it isn't going anywhere, and iirc mobile revenues in Japan exceeded the dedicated space recently, and this is expected to happen on a global scale in 2015 by one research firm. If not sooner then later. Capcom being unable to leverage it well doesn't change that. Any of the traditional companies failing at doing so doesn't really change that.
I happen to, at current, believe that mobile gaming with anything more complicated than the current tops (Puzzles and Dragons, for instance), is highly unlikely as a successful venture. The environment is toxic and it was built that way by cheap development, easy derivative flooding, and a nigh irrelevant quality control factor. Have we seen many companies find repeating success or simple fading limelights?

Mobile has a HUGE future, Heathstone is an amazing and great game and is perfect for mobile in how it is built, other games are great like that as well but they are completely different designs from, say, Splatoon. Mobile gaming for big budget, long games with a lot of nuances and need for development time? I don't think that has a good future at all unless we see a very large mind-set change in mobile, a large curtail of piracy and how easy it is, and a minimum quality control barrier.

I don't honestly see why even in this day and age, dedicated hardware cannot be successful (we also have to define what is successful). It exists in a slightly removed environment from true mobile, offers things that cannot be had in pure mobile without bulky peripherals (control options, see the SHIELD tablet). It's also tailor made for it internally and can do more with less, meaning it can draw out a lower price point than the equivalent phablet. And, as I said before, there's a basis of "quality" guaranteed under the Nintendo label that people have been led to expect... just as they've been led to expect free games for mobile.
 

Scum

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Jun 8, 2004
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sörine;146289593 said:
I guess for Nintendo a unified ecosystem could seem like a shorter term solution in the sense that it doesn't really address the perils of being a hardware vendor in the smartphone era. And there are obvious concessions, it may only end up being a backdoor into dumping traditional consoles ultimately. But I'm not sure the idea is really meant to solve those problems directly, I'd assume it's more the hardware and software design and positioning that Nintendo will be looking to answer those questions with. It's probably just too early to be calling any part of Nintendo's future platform strategy a band-aid really at this point.
I think the universal OS/mutilple hardware sharing the same APIs is bloody good idea for Nintendo, to be honest. It'll go a long way to solving their crappy software output.

Less of this...
Team A - Console Mario Kart.
Team B - Handheld Mario Kart.
Team C - Console Zelda.
Team D - Handheld Zelda.

...and more of this...
Team A - Console/Handheld Mario Kart
Team B - Console/Handheld Zelda.
Team C - Console/Handheld Terranigma.
Team D - Console/Handheld Secret of Evermore.

NCL might not be set up this way, but you get the general idea. :p
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
7,582
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I think the universal OS/mutilple hardware sharing the same APIs is bloody good idea for Nintendo, to be honest. It'll go a long way to solving their crappy software output.

Less of this...
Team A - Console Mario Kart.
Team B - Handheld Mario Kart.
Team C - Console Zelda.
Team D - Handheld Zelda.

...and more of this...
Team A - Console/Handheld Mario Kart
Team B - Console/Handheld Zelda.
Team C - Console/Handheld Terranigma.
Team D - Console/Handheld Secret of Evermore.

NCL might not be set up this way, but you get the general idea. :p
The latter's more how Nintendo's already set up. The issue is more than these teams alternate between entirely unique franchise installments, which is something that consolidated development should help alleviate. It could open these teams up to more opportunities for new game development though.
 

Scum

Junior Member
Jun 8, 2004
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0
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sörine;146298176 said:
The latter's more how Nintendo's already set up. The issue is more than these teams alternate between entirely unique franchise installments, which is something that consolidated development should help alleviate. It could open these teams up to more opportunities for new game development though.
Sweet. Cheers for that.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
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445
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There's still time, by the way (this month is so boring, though).

PREDICTION LEAGUE JANUARY 2015

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Dec 29/2014 to Jan 25/2015):

[3DS] Yokai Watch 2 Shinuchi (28 days) - 444,444
[3DS] Kenka Bancho 6 (11 days) - 44,444
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (4 days) - 222,222
[3DS] Legend of Legacy (4 days) - 44,444
[WIU] Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (4 days) - 44,444
[ALL] Far Cry 4 (4 days) - 44,444


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: January 7th 2015 08:00 am (EST)
Wait, Far Cry 4 has been delayed to January 29th. Not in this months prediction league.

http://www.4gamer.net/games/257/G025740/20150106020/
 

hatchx

Banned
Jun 30, 2009
7,266
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0
Toronto
kinda wonder if the wii u can get to 500k in japan this year. there's mario party 10 and... that will probably be its biggest seller by a longshot. maybe mario maker, but i doubt it has that wider appeal.

If they plan an Animal Crossing to come out in NA in 2016 (which seems likely), I'd bet on that happening in Japan later this year. Also Pokken could happen.
 

BriBri

Member
Jul 6, 2012
2,187
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0
www.japanesenintendo.com
The best selling retail games of the year on the eShop:-

1. Super Smash Bros.
2. Monster Hunter 4G
3. Kirby Triple Deluxe
4. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire
5. Puzzle & Dragons Z
6. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
7. Dragon Quest Monsters 2
8. Pokémon Omega Ruby
9. Yokai Watch 2: Honke
10. Yokai Watch 2: Ganso
 

ZSaberLink

Member
Jul 29, 2010
4,298
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680
I don't really mean temporally, there could be much groundwork laid. I'm probably not expressing it right but metaphorically, I'd say people, Nintendo included even, are looking at a bandaid as if it will be bypass surgery.

The impression I get is that whenever we have these discussions about the future of Nintendo/gaming, people are essentially pinning their expectations/hopes on Nintendo 1) successfully executing whatever this convergence is, and 2) that it enables them to keep calm and carry on as always without any other more fundamental changes in business model or philosophy.

But setting aside I don't think 1 is a given at all, consequence 2 I think is something of a pipe dream.

I think the market trends and realities dictate more radical eventual changes, that are probably a step too far in the minds of many on here. (As a for instance, developing for other platforms, NB not those controlled by Sony or Microsoft mind you, where market segments have shifted.)
How is unifying your infrastructure and updating your development tools for the modern era a bandaid fix? It might not be a cure-all (I'm sure they're aware of that and are thinking of other things like pricing strategy, etc.), but it's a start.

Their fundamental philosophy and business model is still grounded on designing platforms around their own software development and selling that hardware based on their own software output, usually using "withered" technology in order to make a gross margin on hardware.

That the market for consoles that needs Nintendo's output is still substantial enough. That the market for dedicated handhelds at all will still be substantial enough.
The bolded part is what they miserably failed at this gen. Nintendo tried to sell withered technology as premium devices (especially the Wii U, where it's withered in one way, but very advanced in the GamePad) and it completely backfired. Trying to sell a premium device and premium software prices in an era of cheap games was absolutely the opposite thing of what they should have been doing. A device more like the GBA probably would have been far better in the environment of smartphones ($99 hardware at launch, etc.). While the Wii U is selling miserably, the 3DS did remarkably well all things considered pretty much based on high quality software. We're already seeing a slight amount of price elasticity in their titles, and I can only assume Nintendo sees mobile's impact in Japan and the 3DS's successor will actually reflect the realities of smartphone gaming. The Wii U's eShop is a start in the right direction for the development environment as well, as it seems fairly easy to make games across Wii U, PS4 & XB1. It's even possible to port iOS games, although that framework may need a bit more time to mature. I'm not saying it's any type of guarantee everything will get better, but the idea that they won't change at all is kind of silly imo.
 

Scum

Junior Member
Jun 8, 2004
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sörine;146299892 said:
It'd be nice to see the Zelda team take a crack at a new Murasame game for example. Or maybe Marvelous. Or something else entirely new, who knows.
Fingers crossed, mate. Fingers crossed.
 

Busaiku

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Apr 5, 2006
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Wow, Kirby Triple Deluxe may have done quite well on eShop.
Explains the slower physical sales.
 

Sandfox

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Jan 25, 2012
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What exactly is their strategic overhaul though you're referring to that goes beyond relatively small steps?

Is a unified operating system really supposed to stall or reverse the affront by pervasive mobile devices?

Their announced diversification effort was also on further revelation, a relatively modest movement.

This is an excerpt from a WSJ article about Eastman Kodak.


Nintendo's not really in any situation as dire. But there are certainly parallels there in terms of the response to the technological shifts that have occurred and continue to occur in the industry.
Their fundamental philosophy and business model is still grounded on designing platforms around their own software development and selling that hardware based on their own software output, usually using "withered" technology in order to make a gross margin on hardware.

That the market for consoles that needs Nintendo's output is still substantial enough. That the market for dedicated handhelds at all will still be substantial enough.

Do the current environment and market trends really suggest that long term? And if not what are they doing about it?

Also, on the repeated analogy to iOS and Android, people seem to be mistaking what has driven their success as unified models. Not unification across different devices in itself, but the strong two-sided network effects this presents to both consumers and developers. It's why Microsoft's unified Windows platform isn't going to gain traction. Where do these effects derive for a Nintendo operating system across handheld and home devices? It will presumably allow for more Nintendo output across both business lines, probably at the expense of some loss of revenue. It doesn't solve the issue of their ethos/target market and Western third parties being disparate. Is that supposed to generate a compelling proposition against the onslaught of cheap (free), good (simple) and fast (already in my pocket and downloaded at the touch of a button).
I need to see their next platform because we aren't going to learn much of anything until then other than the snippets we've been getting about how they are trying to change some things up. I'm assuming Nintendo has reflected on the biggest issues the Wii U has given the poor sales rather than just going for unification and calling it a day. This is obviously speculation though since we know so little.
 

shinra-bansho

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Nov 13, 2011
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I don't honestly see why even in this day and age, dedicated hardware cannot be successful (we also have to define what is successful). It exists in a slightly removed environment from true mobile, offers things that cannot be had in pure mobile without bulky peripherals (control options, see the SHIELD tablet). It's also tailor made for it internally and can do more with less, meaning it can draw out a lower price point than the equivalent phablet. And, as I said before, there's a basis of "quality" guaranteed under the Nintendo label that people have been led to expect... just as they've been led to expect free games for mobile.
I think you're essentially making the same argument as noted in the WSJ, discounting the suitability of these devices via various justifications and qualities.

For a large segment of what was the market for dedicated devices, the qualities mobile provides more than compensate for the loss of "quality" as defined by many on here. Not just for the influx of expanded audience consumers brought in last generation, but also for the traditional market of handheld devices.

The experiences have been substituted adequately, and present superior value on dimensions that these markets (or the purchasers for these markets, e.g. parents) value.

Thus far a market has remained, but that market that remains continues to diminish.
The 3DS won't outsell the PSP in the US market, nor globally.

You're right though in defining success; if the long term goal is simply to exist as a niche product company, then there's no real contention; Nintendo can easily do this. Although not the Nintendo that exists as today, as it will likely entail reducing their cost structure (probably through workforce reduction).
How is unifying your infrastructure and updating your development tools for the modern era a bandaid fix? It might not be a cure-all (I'm sure they're aware of that and are thinking of other things like pricing strategy, etc.), but it's a start.
Because as noted in the second quoted portion, it amounts to more operational than strategic change in the face of continuing and significant technology/environmental change. (I don't know why "updating your development tools" would be considered anything other than business as usual, frankly.)
Instead of trying to sell two dedicated hardware devices designed around internal development needs with two sets of software, they'll be doing so with one potentially larger set of software. The core business model is relatively unwavering.

From your answer to the second quoted portion I'd probably take that you think there isn't a need for a change in underlying strategy, but rather the execution of it, to which I would disagree.
 

Vena

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Sep 2, 2014
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Thus far a market has remained, but that market that remains continues to diminish.
The 3DS won't outsell the PSP in the US market, nor globally.
The 3DS got crippled out of the gate by nVidia failing to provide the suitable Tegra chip with proper powerdraw and heat generation. Leaving the 3DS stuck with an even older chipset relative to this day and age, which has as a whole crippled its ability to receive games and support certain frameworks/engines. It's abilities to produce decent looking games was badly crippled.

I, quite honestly, want to see how a contemporary, competitively built and currently-price (so 3DS prices as of today) handheld would fair in this day and age. (Especially if it comes with the ability to "work" (optional obviously) with a home-hub that lets you play those same games in HD.) Pack it with the WiiU browser (with a bit more streamlining), MiiVerse/WaraWara, all the various little street pass experiences that promote keeping it with you and having friends with it, give it the ability to run helpful apps well like Netflix, Crunchyroll, etc, and a robust Nintendo game line-up, and let's see how it does.

Due to the closed nature of the 4DS or whatever, and the fact that it won't need 2560x1440 resolution or 600 PPI or a 20 MP Zeiss Optics camera, you can cut down the costs a lot on the device.
 
I feel Nintendo's core issue here in terms of staying the course is that they're a public company.

Like if they were a private company they could take any profitable route without pressure even if that profit was ultimately way less than before.

As it stands now, they degrade shareholder value every time they shrink the company's intake.

Now, if they sit long enough in a hole their investors will eventually cycle around to people who are okay with their new size the same way that Blackberry continues to have investors, but it still puts on a level of pressure to perform.
 

hiska-kun

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Mar 9, 2012
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The best selling retail games of the year on the eShop:-

1. Super Smash Bros.
2. Monster Hunter 4G
3. Kirby Triple Deluxe
4. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire
5. Puzzle & Dragons Z
6. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
7. Dragon Quest Monsters 2
8. Pokémon Omega Ruby
9. Yokai Watch 2: Honke
10. Yokai Watch 2: Ganso
Famitsu digital estimates:

[3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} - 20.209
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.02.06} - 8.714
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} - 84.227

Ok, Kirby digital estimates are only until May, since it didn't chart anymore in the top 30 retail+digital ranking.
DQM2 digital is just for february and march (didn't chart after that).
Also, Kirby has download codes that are not included in this pure digital figures, while YW2 doesn't have these cards.

But there's something wrong with this.
Kirby and DQM2 numbers are too low.

There's also some discrepances between Nintendo's report for Smash for 3DS digital sales and Famitsu.
 

BishopLamont

Banned
Apr 22, 2007
7,423
0
0
I think the universal OS/mutilple hardware sharing the same APIs is bloody good idea for Nintendo, to be honest. It'll go a long way to solving their crappy software output.

Less of this...
Team A - Console Mario Kart.
Team B - Handheld Mario Kart.
Team C - Console Zelda.
Team D - Handheld Zelda.

...and more of this...
Team A - Console/Handheld Mario Kart
Team B - Console/Handheld Zelda.
Team C - Console/Handheld Terranigma.
Team D - Console/Handheld Secret of Evermore.

NCL might not be set up this way, but you get the general idea. :p
what are u tryin to do here? =[
 
Apr 27, 2011
5,246
2
0
Prediction League 2013 Year Results

Congratulations to:

- Baki, for winning by units!
- hiska-kun, for winning by mean error %!
I swear there's a conspiracy against me, this is the third time I've been in a very close second place in a prediction contest on this site lol.
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,529
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Man I remember thinking how with Pokemon X/Y, Monster Hunter 4, and Dragon Quest 7 I was being really conservative with my 6.4 million predictions.

Also NSMB2 had terrible legs which in retrospect I don't know why anyone thought it would. The Wii U predictions are probably as bad the PS4 predictions would be.
 

mao2

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Jun 22, 2012
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Just wondering, why aren't the links to Media Create/4Gamer.net and Famitsu.com's weekly ranking charts added to OP? Shouldn't we give credit to the source?
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
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500
Just wondering, why aren't the links to Media Create/4Gamer.net and Famitsu.com's weekly ranking charts added to OP? Shouldn't we give credit to the source?
probably the same reason why there aren't dengeki charts added to the op...it's just not in chris1964's thread-creating algorithm.
 

duckroll

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Jun 7, 2004
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Not sure if this has been posted yet.

From Dec 30 2013 to Dec 28 2014, this is the annual division of software market share tracked by Famitsu from the weekly sales:

01. Nintendo - 7,238,816 units - 20.4% - 30 titles
02. Level 5 - 6,144,754 units - 17.3% - 4 titles
03. Bandai Namco Games - 3,745,517 units - 10.6% - 57 titles
04. Capcom - 3,091,112 units - 8.7% - 13 titles
05. Pokemon Company - 3,038,599 units - 8.6% - 4 titles
06. Square Enix - 2,221,965 units - 6.3% - 31 titles
07. Konami - 1,382,339 units - 3.9% - 17 titles
08. Sony Computer Entertainment - 1,348,599 units - 3.8% - 13 titles
09. Sega - 1,121,665 units - 3.2% - 19 titles
10. Koei Tecmo Games - 987,442 units - 2.8% - 23 titles

XX. Others - 5,129,202 units - 14.4% - 187 titles

Total Software - 35,450,010 units - 398 titles
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
The best selling retail games of the year on the eShop:-

1. Super Smash Bros.
2. Monster Hunter 4G
3. Kirby Triple Deluxe
4. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire
5. Puzzle & Dragons Z
6. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
7. Dragon Quest Monsters 2
8. Pokémon Omega Ruby
9. Yokai Watch 2: Honke
10. Yokai Watch 2: Ganso
Is there a version of the yearly chart with digital only games included? Since we know Gunman Clive is over 100,000 sold in Japan, it'd be helpful (IIRC, it released in 2014 in Japan)
 

Pennywise83

Banned
Oct 10, 2007
4,117
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0
www.wiitalia.it
That's what I'm feeling, especially when I walk around the street and look at what people are doing, I noticed younger audience really got into YW franchise, so in some ways it could have attacched Pokemon sales.
But also I remembered Chris answering me that big franchises can coesists on strong platforms, but I'm not so sure in this case.
It should be interesting making some comparisons.
Pokémon and Youkai Watch are both huge franchises, and they are coexisting on 3DS.

3DS - hard to see the comparison changing, actually the biggest hit is Bravely 2nd, but #20 is around 600k (Kirby)
The first big 3DS hit will Theatrhythm Dragon Quest in March.
 

BriBri

Member
Jul 6, 2012
2,187
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0
www.japanesenintendo.com
Is there a version of the yearly chart with digital only games included? Since we know Gunman Clive is over 100,000 sold in Japan, it'd be helpful (IIRC, it released in 2014 in Japan)
It was May 2013. And no yearly inclusive chart. I do have Download only though:

01. Pokémon Battle Trozei
02. Kirby Fighters Z
03. Bike Rider DX2 Galaxy
04. Bike Rider DX
05. Urban Trial Freestyle
06. Soliti Horse
07. Puyo Puyo!! Mini Version
08. Pokémon AR Searcher
09. SIMPLE DL Vol. 24
10. Bird Mania 3D
 

CANLI

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Dec 4, 2006
538
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Brussels
Why Nintendo has to hide eshop numbers?
And a top 20 is too small. They should make a top 50 or something to see more interesting games.
 

dolemite

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Oct 21, 2007
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Deutschland
Not sure if this has been posted yet.

From Dec 30 2013 to Dec 28 2014, this is the annual division of software market share tracked by Famitsu from the weekly sales:

01. Nintendo - 7,238,816 units - 20.4% - 30 titles
02. Level 5 - 6,144,754 units - 17.3% - 4 titles

03. Bandai Namco Games - 3,745,517 units - 10.6% - 57 titles
04. Capcom - 3,091,112 units - 8.7% - 13 titles
05. Pokemon Company - 3,038,599 units - 8.6% - 4 titles
06. Square Enix - 2,221,965 units - 6.3% - 31 titles
07. Konami - 1,382,339 units - 3.9% - 17 titles
08. Sony Computer Entertainment - 1,348,599 units - 3.8% - 13 titles
09. Sega - 1,121,665 units - 3.2% - 19 titles
10. Koei Tecmo Games - 987,442 units - 2.8% - 23 titles

XX. Others - 5,129,202 units - 14.4% - 187 titles

Total Software - 35,450,010 units - 398 titles
Now who's in charge around here?
 

And_Gignac

Member
Dec 22, 2013
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0
320
I wonder if Vita can beat the 3DS this year. I anticipate that 3DS will have an even bigger YoY drop this year that could bring it to Vita territory. Maybe Japan will get a 3rd gen Vita as well towards the holidays. It will be very close I reckon.
Lol

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

From Dec 30 2013 to Dec 28 2014, this is the annual division of software market share tracked by Famitsu from the weekly sales:

01. Nintendo - 7,238,816 units - 20.4% - 30 titles
02. Level 5 - 6,144,754 units - 17.3% - 4 titles
03. Bandai Namco Games - 3,745,517 units - 10.6% - 57 titles
04. Capcom - 3,091,112 units - 8.7% - 13 titles
05. Pokemon Company - 3,038,599 units - 8.6% - 4 titles
06. Square Enix - 2,221,965 units - 6.3% - 31 titles
07. Konami - 1,382,339 units - 3.9% - 17 titles
08. Sony Computer Entertainment - 1,348,599 units - 3.8% - 13 titles
09. Sega - 1,121,665 units - 3.2% - 19 titles
10. Koei Tecmo Games - 987,442 units - 2.8% - 23 titles

XX. Others - 5,129,202 units - 14.4% - 187 titles

Total Software - 35,450,010 units - 398 titles
Level 5 will save Japan! Aren't you proud duckroll? :p
 

hiska-kun

Member
Mar 9, 2012
3,567
0
445
Spain
The Dragon Quest Heroes "limited bundle" (lol) is still available in Bic Camera:

(Pre-orders opened for DQH and FFType-0 HD bundle, GTAV HD Limited Hardware Bundle not available, Shadow of Mordor sold out)

Tsutaya says that Gundam Breaker 2 for Vita and FF Explorers are facing some stock problems. In Yamada Denki it's happening too.

http://mantan-web.jp/2015/01/06/20150106dog00m200013000c.html?mode=pc

&#21697;&#20999;&#12428;(sold out)

 

mao2

Member
Jun 22, 2012
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0
Namco can't even get to 2/3rds of Level 5's sales despite having 53 more games.

If anyone was wondering why the dedicated market is in decline, the hobo publishers are a big part of it.
Well, not every title is a million seller. IMO publishers willing to release small/niche games are good.
 

XDDX

Member
Jan 3, 2011
620
0
0
New Zealand
Predictions:

[3DS] Yokai Watch 2 Shinuchi (28 days) - 380,000
[3DS] Kenka Bancho 6 (11 days) - 55,555
[PS3] Tales of Zestiria (4 days) - 266,666
[3DS] Legend of Legacy (4 days) - 55,000
[WIU] Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (4 days) - 38,000
[ALL] Far Cry 4 (4 days) - 55,555
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
114,759
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Also, Bandai Namco has been lacking really big franchises since PS1 with Tekken.
I feel that publishers like Namco, Konami, and Sega were strongest when they had a huge foothold in the arcade scene, and that translated to having strong brands which could also sell in the home market. With the decline of conventional games in arcades, these publishers seem to have suffered a lot.
 

Sandfox

Member
Jan 25, 2012
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I feel that publishers like Namco, Konami, and Sega were strongest when they had a huge foothold in the arcade scene, and that translated to having strong brands which could also sell in the home market. With the decline of conventional games in arcades, these publishers seem to have suffered a lot.
Well at least they still make good money in arcades(or at least they did the last time I checked) and now they have mobile to help them out lol.
 
Well, not every title is a million seller. IMO publishers willing to release small/niche games are good.
I feel the issue is not that they release small titles, which is helpful to providing for varying tastes, but that they seem to be unable to release any really notable ones despite having astronomical volume, which isn't helpful for exciting the market.

To note the other publishers mostly aren't doing much better, but the disparity with Namco in particular sticks out the most.
 

1st Course

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Aug 10, 2012
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Famitsu digital estimates:

[3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} - 20.209
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.02.06} - 8.714
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} - 84.227

Ok, Kirby digital estimates are only until May, since it didn't chart anymore in the top 30 retail+digital ranking.
DQM2 digital is just for february and march (didn't chart after that).
Also, Kirby has download codes that are not included in this pure digital figures, while YW2 doesn't have these cards.

But there's something wrong with this.
Kirby and DQM2 numbers are too low.

There's also some discrepances between Nintendo's report for Smash for 3DS digital sales and Famitsu.
It seems like puzzle and dragons is undertracked on Famitsu too. According to Famitsu p&d sold 14,818 digitally in 2014 (data go till may only), which seems low considering its charting above yokai watch 2 on eshop.

As far as I know both yokai watch 2 and p&d don't have download cards so we can't say download cards causing discrepancy.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
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Not sure if this has been posted yet.

From Dec 30 2013 to Dec 28 2014, this is the annual division of software market share tracked by Famitsu from the weekly sales:

01. Nintendo - 7,238,816 units - 20.4% - 30 titles
02. Level 5 - 6,144,754 units - 17.3% - 4 titles
03. Bandai Namco Games - 3,745,517 units - 10.6% - 57 titles
04. Capcom - 3,091,112 units - 8.7% - 13 titles
05. Pokemon Company - 3,038,599 units - 8.6% - 4 titles
06. Square Enix - 2,221,965 units - 6.3% - 31 titles
07. Konami - 1,382,339 units - 3.9% - 17 titles
08. Sony Computer Entertainment - 1,348,599 units - 3.8% - 13 titles
09. Sega - 1,121,665 units - 3.2% - 19 titles
10. Koei Tecmo Games - 987,442 units - 2.8% - 23 titles

XX. Others - 5,129,202 units - 14.4% - 187 titles

Total Software - 35,450,010 units - 398 titles
waaaaaat. How?

17 titles........I thought Konami only make PES and MGS
 

duckroll

Member
Jun 7, 2004
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I feel the issue is not that they release small titles, which is helpful to providing for varying tastes, but that they seem to be unable to release any really notable ones despite having astronomical volume, which isn't helpful for exciting the market.

To note the other publishers mostly aren't doing much better, but the disparity with Namco in particular sticks out the most.
I don't think it's entirely fair to look at it as disparity though. The top 10 Bandai Namco Games titles amount to about 1.9 million units out of 3.7 million units. The next 10 titles from the publisher amount to about 800k.

1.9 million units for 10 titles, 2.7 million units for 20 titles. That's better than any other competing publisher for the year other than Capcom. The reason why Bandai Namco pushes so many titles is because they have a ton of IPs, many of them being cross-media stuff for kids and general audiences. Many of these aren't expected to sell much, but they're released as part of general marketing. I don't think that should take away from the publisher, considering how many of the "big" players couldn't even ship 20 titles in the entire year.

waaaaaat. How?

17 titles........I thought Konami only make PES and MGS
6 Winning Eleven titles, 5 Baseball titles, 2 Metal Gear titles, New Love Plus, A Yugioh game, a Nisekoi game, and Lords of Shadows 2.
 
I don't think it's entirely fair to look at it as disparity though. The top 10 Bandai Namco Games titles amount to about 1.9 million units out of 3.7 million units. The next 10 titles from the publisher amount to about 800k.

1.9 million units for 10 titles, 2.7 million units for 20 titles. That's better than any other competing publisher for the year other than Capcom. The reason why Bandai Namco pushes so many titles is because they have a ton of IPs, many of them being cross-media stuff for kids and general audiences. Many of these aren't expected to sell much, but they're released as part of general marketing. I don't think that should take away from the publisher, considering how many of the "big" players couldn't even ship 20 titles in the entire year.
That's fair, by this measure they are certainly earning their position, but I think it's still emblematic of the bigger issue.

When we look at the remaining major Western publishers, they can almost all frequently release 10+ million unit games in a market that caps out around 20 million. Even boutique publishers like ZeniMax manage to get a 20 million unit game out the door like Skyrim.

If we adjust that 20 million mark to 3 million for Japan with the 4-6 million being extreme outliers a la GTA V, we still don't a lot of publishers even hit a third of that, much less half.

I think your old lists of million sellers per platform over the years paints this issue well.

Given we can see a company like Level 5 hitting these marks with a very recent IP despite the current market conditions, and the broad success of Nintendo/Pokemon, I feel the other third parties should be able to conjure more major hits.

Now, to be fair, a lot of these companies are moving their focus either onto mobile or overseas, so that does complicate their output relative to the local market, but given that some of them do still seem to be trying, I'm not overwhelmed with the results.

I don't think every publisher needs to be a smashing success, but when ambitions collectively don't go up - or even more notably shrink - I feel it hurts the market.
 

Oregano

Member
Mar 13, 2013
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Because as noted in the second quoted portion, it amounts to more operational than strategic change in the face of continuing and significant technology/environmental change. (I don't know why "updating your development tools" would be considered anything other than business as usual, frankly.)
Instead of trying to sell two dedicated hardware devices designed around internal development needs with two sets of software, they'll be doing so with one potentially larger set of software. The core business model is relatively unwavering.

From your answer to the second quoted portion I'd probably take that you think there isn't a need for a change in underlying strategy, but rather the execution of it, to which I would disagree.
It's not certain it is what Iwata was talking about but going to a full convergence model is much more than "updating your development tools" and fundamentally changes the role that individual form factors/hardware SKUs play in their business model.

I feel an overlooked factor when discussing the potential of the convergence model is how it fundamentally addresses the issue of the difference in hardware preferences in different markets. By allowing developers to target an array of hardware it means they can target the handheld market in Japan and the console market in the West simultaneously. The 3DS is still the dominant platform in Japan and will probably be the second most successful hardware ever.

On that note it's important to point out that the 3DS still has a lot of (Japanese) third party support and leveraging that support for the home console will be an important change from the Wii U. The home console will be more appealing by virtue of a much higher concentration of software releases.

It might not pan out but it's very possible that there is a growth opportunity compared to the Wii U and 3DS.

As pointed out earlier as well by going to this development model it would help them prepare if/when they need to transition to other/mobile platforms.

I also mentioned in this in another thread but it could potentially open up the avenue of licensing the platform and collaborating with other manufacturers(in the vein of the Panasonic Q).

EDIT:mad:Nirolak: I've mentioned it before but I think the fact that Level 5 is the only publisher who primarily targets the 3DS is an important factor in their hit-making ability.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
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500
Not sure if this has been posted yet.

From Dec 30 2013 to Dec 28 2014, this is the annual division of software market share tracked by Famitsu from the weekly sales:

01. Nintendo - 7,238,816 units - 20.4% - 30 titles
02. Level 5 - 6,144,754 units - 17.3% - 4 titles
03. Bandai Namco Games - 3,745,517 units - 10.6% - 57 titles
04. Capcom - 3,091,112 units - 8.7% - 13 titles
05. Pokemon Company - 3,038,599 units - 8.6% - 4 titles
06. Square Enix - 2,221,965 units - 6.3% - 31 titles
07. Konami - 1,382,339 units - 3.9% - 17 titles
08. Sony Computer Entertainment - 1,348,599 units - 3.8% - 13 titles
09. Sega - 1,121,665 units - 3.2% - 19 titles
10. Koei Tecmo Games - 987,442 units - 2.8% - 23 titles

XX. Others - 5,129,202 units - 14.4% - 187 titles

Total Software - 35,450,010 units - 398 titles
waaaaaat. How?

17 titles........I thought Konami only make PES and MGS
complete list of konami's 2014 releases in japan:

1) 2014-03-20: [ps4] metal gear solid v: ground zeroes
2) 2014-03-20: [ps3] metal gear solid v: ground zeroes
3) 2014-03-20: [360] metal gear solid v: ground zeroes
(the xbo release of ground zeroes is digital-only in japan)

4) 2014-03-20: [psv] pro baseball spirits 2014
5) 2014-03-20: [ps3] pro baseball spirits 2014
6) 2014-03-20: [psp] pro baseball spirits 2014

7) 2014-03-27: [3ds] new love plus+

8) 2014-05-22: [3ds] pro evolution soccer 2014: aoki samurai no chousen
9) 2014-05-22: [ps3] pro evolution soccer 2014: aoki samurai no chousen
10) 2014-05-22: [psp] pro evolution soccer 2014: aoki samurai no chousen

11) 2014-09-04: [ps3] castlevania: lords of shadow 2
12) 2014-09-04: [360] castlevania: lords of shadow 2

13) 2014-10-23: [psv] jikkyou powerful pro baseball 2014
14) 2014-10-23: [ps3] jikkyou powerful pro baseball 2014

15) 2014-11-13: [ps4] pro evolution soccer 2015
16) 2014-11-13: [ps3] pro evolution soccer 2015
17) 2014-11-13: [xbo] pro evolution soccer 2015

18) 2014-11-27: [psv] nisekoi: yomeiri!?


what you'll see is that famitsu tracks a "release" as a unique retail sku. so there aren't 18 new games by konami, but rather, 8 new games across 18 skus.