gundamkyoukai
Member
We will move to streaming but it's years before that happens .
Plus it also depends on other factors like VR , internet companies etc etc
Plus it also depends on other factors like VR , internet companies etc etc
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Michael Pachter: Console market may collapse in the future.
- Thread starter Gamezone
- Start date
JordanN
Banned
The PS3/360 era was full of those outageously cheesy fanboy comics. I remember one that was about a finish line (took forever to find it).
We can already download to PC and stream to TV. Downloading to your phone and playing on your TV will never replace traditional consoles because the phone will be too expensive for the console market.
What will change consoles is the shift to streaming from the cloud which is why Sony has PS Now and MS could easily come out with a similar service using their Azure cloud platform. However, a lot will have to change for cloud to replace consoles (e.g. Internet bandwidth, removal of data caps, etc). I say it'll be another decade at least.
What will change consoles is the shift to streaming from the cloud which is why Sony has PS Now and MS could easily come out with a similar service using their Azure cloud platform. However, a lot will have to change for cloud to replace consoles (e.g. Internet bandwidth, removal of data caps, etc). I say it'll be another decade at least.
Hari Seldon
Member
He never said the word collapse. The OP is shit.
This is what he said:
1. Console software is eventually going to move off console - in 2-3 years you will be able to play COD from any integrated GPU PC on your TV. (don't agree with him that people will do this)
2. In 10 years you will be able to download a console game to your phone and play it on your TV. (10 years seems aggressive to me but this will eventually happen)
Therefore
3. Console makers need to make the consoles "do more" like Playstation Now and free games and stuff, funding exclusive indy games, etc.
4. He then questions if "the general audience" are going to spend the extra money for this.
It starts at ~1:50.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkwkVSZod9w
This is what I came here for. Thank you.
Blackage
Member
Michael has been saying this for years now. Citing services like OnLive and Playstation Now I think, but I haven't seen any real evidence that people are ready to give up their home consoles.
I think the console market, like having a video game box in your house isn't at prominent as it used to be, because there's alot more entertainment options out there nowadays, but there's nothing that has come along that can REPLACE the console market as it stands even if it's not selling hardware like it did in the PS2 era.
I think the console market, like having a video game box in your house isn't at prominent as it used to be, because there's alot more entertainment options out there nowadays, but there's nothing that has come along that can REPLACE the console market as it stands even if it's not selling hardware like it did in the PS2 era.
LordRaptor
Member
Given a smartphone is increasingly a necessity not a luxury (and will become increasingly more so as more and more of your necessary services become tied to phone based authentication systems making it a de facto ID card) and is subsidised via contract, I don't think you can safely declare "never"
StereoVsn
Gold Member
It's a non-starter for anywhere from 4 to 8 years, at least in US and probably more. Latency cannot be corrected unless Publishers will not use P2P connectivity anymore and put servers co-located with Internet providers every few hundred miles.
As far as TV go, meh, TVs are used for a long time, longer then a console. We don't really see a trend for integrating cloud gaming. Yeah, Sony tries with PS3 streaming which is a generation behind to mediocre results but that's about it.
I can see a better effort from Apple and Google/Amazon in the future but that's still mobile gaming. Maybe MS will do something as well but again, that's a few years off.
Backfoggen
Banned
Nah, son. I'm not buying into this whole thing this time around. Consoles will stay around till they won't. Can't be arsed to read "this/next generation will be the last!!" 1000 times again.
Real_Madrid
Member
It will be a transition. EA is going to make console games until people stop buying them, but we're not that far off from them announcing a true Fifa game for mobile devices. The technology is here, but there're still some things to be considered: a more or less universal gaming input that isn't touch, an easy way for people to stream the game to their TV's or devices and so on.
The potential market is just so huge, everyone will pay attention. Just a thought: but imagine what a F2P AAA Fifa game would generate in money. Once you have the engine, they could update such a game regularly and make silly ultimate team money for like forever. The Switch is really showing how good such a thing can be. Take Fifa with you with friends, play games against each other and once you get home, stream it to your big TV and play from there online. It's a no-brainer.
But is your smartphone as powerful as a console or a desktop PC? Can your iPhone run Horizon Zero Dawn or other current AAA games? The tech you find in consoles and gaming PCs will always be a step ahead of the tech that makes up the mobile market. If it's on the same level, it's going to cost a lot of money.
Gamezone
Gold Member
Fuck no. Can they beat the speed of light?
Nintendo is a toy company at heart. They're not going to abandon creating physical hardware in some form. It's just not in their DNA.
I mean, a decade or so ago I remember it being all doom and gloom to PC as established gaming, including old PC support, was extensively consolized on PS360.
Look where PC gaming is now.
While I think AAA productions are on a slow march to doom and they are the bread and butter of consoles to some extent and while I do think console gaming would be in a better place if last generation had been SD, more affordable, etc., things change and not every paradigm meets its seemingly obvious end.
Look where PC gaming is now.
While I think AAA productions are on a slow march to doom and they are the bread and butter of consoles to some extent and while I do think console gaming would be in a better place if last generation had been SD, more affordable, etc., things change and not every paradigm meets its seemingly obvious end.
Namegoes_Here
Member
Sony cutting support of ps now to their own Bravia tv line suggests otherwise. The only guarantee of what will happen in 2-3 years is this same article being written again.
LordRaptor
Member
You need to define what you mean by "power".
Because yes, modern smartphone CPUs are very comparable to the PS4 and X1, and are only getting faster each year.
SinCityAssassin
Member
Oh thank god. I was worried there.
There is no reason to alienate consumers and profits.
Nintendo is a business. It makes money.
Best first post. I expected nothing less.
Vermillion
Banned
I didn't say it would be streaming-based
The tech might be in the TV someday. See:we know one thing, people value being able to sit on their couch and play on their big screen TVs with as much simplicity as possible. They're willing to make some sacrafices for this, ie less power (vs PC), slightly higher prices for games (vs PC), paying for online, etc, but they're not willing to compromise on everything. Price is a factor for the device itself, and for many things like input lag (leaves out streaming games for the foreseeable future) and a baseline for specs (usually against what the competition is offering) are not acceptable. What can deliver this in a few years? Not PC, it will continue being what it is now. Not streaming services, the country is not going to see some crazy bandwidth/latency revolution in such a short time. So what form? The phone market will always exist, but its pretty much a separate segment. Until someone can offer something that deals with these questions, consoles are here to stay.
Ok, I knew I wasnt crazy.
The only thing I see happening is digital sales growing for consoles. Its happening now.
I assume he mentions PS Now.
A.Romero
Member
I feel there is no need to eliminate consoles.
Right now you could play games on your TV from your phone. However, people like us keep playing games in a console because the experience is different (I'd like to say better but I know a lot of people prefer playing on mobile).
I think several ways to enjoy games can co-exist and some people will keep using consoles.
I play mainly on PC but I have a PS4. I like the home theater experience and streaming will never offer the same kind of experience than having the rendering device connected to the screen through a very high bandwidth cable.
Networks will improve but so local interfaces. Why sacrifice some of the quality?
Right now you could play games on your TV from your phone. However, people like us keep playing games in a console because the experience is different (I'd like to say better but I know a lot of people prefer playing on mobile).
I think several ways to enjoy games can co-exist and some people will keep using consoles.
I play mainly on PC but I have a PS4. I like the home theater experience and streaming will never offer the same kind of experience than having the rendering device connected to the screen through a very high bandwidth cable.
Networks will improve but so local interfaces. Why sacrifice some of the quality?
I didn't say it would be streaming-based
I must have missed this then, apologies. I kind of agree that people won't be accepting of TVs as consoles anytime soon, not with "the gaming box" being such a prominent symbol in peoples' heads for playing games.
I concede that a convergence will happen one day but there are too many unknown factors to actually make a functional timeline.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Hey weren't people saying this generation would be the last because of streaming?
xDUMPWEEDx
Banned
These guys are just going to keep saying this same thing over, and over, until it finally happens. When it does they will say "See! We were right this whole time!".
That's the problem that Patcher and others have when making these types of comparisons. They extrapolate the power/features of TVs/smartphones while thinking that consoles or PCs are frozen in time or designed in a vacuum.
Smartphones are very powerful, but are fundamentally limited by the thermal properties of being a hand held device. The TDP of smartphones is in the single Ws. PCs/consoles/etc consume orders of magnitude more power which directly relates to the overall performance. Yes, architectural differences in ARM and blah blah can help close the gap, but some limits just can't be overcome.
Interfectum
Gold Member
Yup, when it happens in 2150, experts will look back at this thread and be like OMG Pachter was Nostradamus.
DeuceGamer
Member
He is referring to the console market. What other consoles are there outside of Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony?
In 2150 I hope that we've all moved on from just playing video games to just becoming video games. Think about it.
Mechanized
Member
Can a claim based on empirical evidence be considered mindless?
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
In 2150 the planet will be uninhabitable so videogames will be the least of our concerns.
Charles Brandon
Member
Wouldn't we already be doing this if it was going to happen? It's not like it's not an option if you want it to be.
How well is that alienware alpha console selling?
LordRaptor
Member
Current (baseline) consoles still have the single threaded cpu performance targets of a launch 360 (in fact, actually slightly worse), and there is zero indication anyone is interested in abandoning vanilla PS4 or X1 to only target the Pro or Scorpio.
I mean, thats really not much of a moving target.
For such a pro-technology, anti-Luddite forum ya'll aren't very forward-thinking. I mean, it's one thing to be skeptical, but to dismiss the idea wholesale is rather silly. Why not entertain the potential?
As I said previously, I think that his schedule is too aggressive, but what's to stop this from happening say... 20-30 years from now?
As I said previously, I think that his schedule is too aggressive, but what's to stop this from happening say... 20-30 years from now?
Can't really push video over mini USB.
USBC being universal would make using your phone-as-console have a lot less friction to it, especially since you would likely be plugging it in to charge it anyway.
Lil'DigiOp
Member
45 million PS4s
One million switches on the first month
Console games aren't going no the fuck where. Put it to bed.
One million switches on the first month
Console games aren't going no the fuck where. Put it to bed.
sugarhigh4242
Banned
Pachter seems to think there's going to be a time when phones are more powerful than PCs.
Rats Off To Ya
Banned
The PS3/360 era was full of those outageously cheesy fanboy comics. I remember one that was about a finish line (took forever to find it).
I'm fucking dying over here.
Charles Brandon
Member
I had a MHL cable for my Galaxy S3 and that could play N64 games on my TV (IIRC) using a Bluetooth controller. That was years ago. I set it up once and never used it again.
Neander
Member
Why not take it a step further and say you're going to be able to download straight to your TV and play on your TV?