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[AuthenticM]

I don't agree, but I think it's complicated. I really doubt anytime soon we are going to see specialist gaming appliances dying, They are just too good at their niche.

Mobile games have grown quickly into their own massive thing, but what did they really kill in their wake? Mobile flash games maybe, old outdated handhelds perhaps, but they mostly carved out their own space. Consoles have continued to grow, evolve and thrive separately at what they do best.

Even when apple release controller standards and partner with people to bring traditional controls to iPhone as an option, it ends up one big nothing. On the android side, same thing. Outside of some nerds doing emulation, it's not really a successful thing. Those platforms and stores, as far as gaming, are almost 100% pitifully priced, casual games for smallish touch devices. And who wants to game much on a device you rely on throughout the day for 'everything else' in your life anyway?

iOS/Android have even struggle to bring this experience to larger screens like tablets, Microsoft have struggled to ram windows into a tablet in any way that isn't 'a tablet shaped device that runs desktop windows if you plug a keyboard and mouse in.' Linux desktop companies, same problem.

Android tv boxes, Apple TVs, smart tv's, phones casting to TV's, all good in certain ways, but for actual gaming? Same problem as phones.

On the other end of the scale, PC - incredibly powerful (potentially), incredibly versatile, I'll defend it as a laptop or desktop experience, but bring your PC gaming into the living room, and I will disagree with anyone saying it's a good experience. Sure you can play some single player games pretty unobtrusively with the controller. But for typical social/multiplayer gaming, it has many little things that all add up to make it a pain and the cumbersome. Again, i don't see it really being a popular thing,

So to recap, so far, every time one of these other platforms steps outside of it's comfort zone it's been a bad experience. Sometimes their comfort zone isn't even games at all.

The notion that 'streaming' from one of those platforms is going to change this, I think that'll either prove to be flat out wrong, or wrong for smaller more subtle reasons when compared to curated careful pairing of software and hardware that consoles bring to the table.

If you want to argue that x86 consoles (or even PC's) could be under attack and lose a bit of marketshare to smaller ARM gaming devices (like the switch) which are more convenient and run off 10-15watts rather than 100watts+ (or many times that on PC!), I'll agree with you. Especially when a lot of the times that wattage is just getting chewed up with nothing more than extra lines of resolution for the same core experience. But under attack because of streaming from phones/pcs? Nah.

well-said

 

[Always-honest]

things MAY change in the future.

 

[RollTIde1017]

Pachter has been predicting the end of consoles for almost a decade now. As long as he keeps at it, in one of the decades, he may be correct.

 

[bunbun777]

Pachter has been predicting the end of consoles for almost a decade now. As long as he keeps at it, in one of the decades, he may be correct.

Nah, it's his predictions that are keeping consoles going. Day after he's gone...
CRASH.

 

[TGO]

Sorry but that's like saying the game industry is gonna collapse.

 

[VincentMatts]

In other news, it might rain tomorrow.

 

[Sephiroth_VII]

I'm going to beat Pachter here with a just as surefire prediction:

Sephiroth_VII: The console market, and human society as we know it, will collapse in the future.

There you go, now give me money.

 

[KingErich]

Paid DLC, micro transactions, unfinished games on release, segmented console releases, online only games, rehashed games over and over (COD and the like)...Ya the industry is killing itself. I am certainly less interested in the current gen of gaming. I am enjoying the golden age of retro gaming now.

Will we be able to play the games on the current systems in 20 years like we can with our older systems today? I think not. Not when the patch servers go down and those online only game servers go offline.When patches aren't delivered for broken release day software that requires said patch to even work.

 

[VincentMatts]

I'm going to beat Pachter here with a just as surefire prediction:

Sephiroth_VII: The console market, and human society as we know it, will collapse in the future.

There you go, now give me money.

Tell us more! You seem really good at this.

 

[mckmas8808]

Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?

If smart phones will be powerful enough to run console games in 10 years, then what would a console be able to do at the current size the PS4 PRO is at in 10 years?

It's like people never take that next step to think what that would mean for devices that are 10 times bigger, with a power source that's not a battery.

 

[Nepenthe]

I would believe this if A.) PCs that were directly analogous to consoles- pre-assembled, standardized things you pick up from a store, plug in, and play games that don't require you to understand minimum settings- had ever taken off, and B.) Game developers were on board with giving up whatever profit margins and market share they get from their own console manufacturing.

With A, most people don't give a good goddamn to take the time to make their own gaming PC no matter how easy or cheap you tell them it is, because most people believe the convenience of an already assembled electronic device is the deciding factor. Consoles are still here because mainly because of convenience which trumps just about everything. All that digital will do, I feel, is phase out physical cartridges and disks slowly over time, not the console itself.

As with regards to B, not happening until these companies are at the point where it's third party development or death.

 

[Version 3.0]

If smart phones will be powerful enough to run console games in 10 years, then what would a console be able to do at the current size the PS4 PRO is at in 10 years?

It's like people never take that next step to think what that would mean for devices that are 10 times bigger, with a power source that's not a battery.

I believe his larger argument behind that is "diminishing returns". Not the one that says graphics aren't giving as much apparent improvement as they used to. The one where it's not financially viable to make cutting-edge graphics.

And, you know, maybe someday. But not now, and not soon.

 

[DarkConfidant]

Sounds like 2012 again.

PS4's amazing success, the flop of the "steam box", the decline of the PC in general, and the important of Switch hardware make me doubt this 100%.

 

[prudislav]

These predictions are are hilarious ina same way PC gaming has been hapilly dying fir more than 20 years and right niw is stronger than ever
As forconsoles unless ms or sony both do the original xbone premise and every game goes online-only , cinsole gaming will stay

 

[mckmas8808]

I believe his larger argument behind that is "diminishing returns". Not the one that says graphics aren't giving as much apparent improvement as they used to. The one where it's not financially viable to make cutting-edge graphics.

And, you know, maybe someday. But not now, and not soon.

I wish he'd just say that then. I think you are giving him too much credit. He didn't seem to actually say that.

But on your point (key being "your point") I'd like to believe that companies will develop tools to making games a little cheaper and easier in the coming years.

 

[GodofWine]

I do think consoles are in trouble, kids watch youtube, older kids watch twitch. Anyone with kids and who has a console has only had to tell their kids "But our version of minecraft cannot do those things, those people are on PC's" about 10,000,000,000 times.

PC's are on the rise for many reasons, and there is no reason this will stop. Im building my 5 and 7 year olds their own budget gaming PCs (will also be used for normal home productivity too, but their will be two identical g4560/rx560(or 470 or 1050ti? haven't bought gpus yet), and they may never touch a console in my house again.

Consoles have a major youtube and twitch problem.

 

[Sulik2]

I normally think Pachter gets crapped on for no good reason. But this is so stupid. The console industry is incredibly strong right now, Sony has a brand loyalty that is almost unmatched in the world and the niche that consoles fill for high quality games on your TV with a box that is simple to use is not going anywhere.

 

[theclaw135]

Storage space is going to be an issue for the future of so-called "AAA" games. The HDD market crunch in favor of SSDs coinciding with games that devour 50-plus-GB... It isn't sustainable.

 

[Version 3.0]

I wish he'd just say that then. I think you are giving him too much credit. He didn't seem to actually say that.

But on your point (key being "your point") I'd like to believe that companies will develop tools to making games a little cheaper and easier in the coming years.

He said it years ago. I assume he stills believes it.

But yes, of course you're right. Software tools are always evolving to meet needs. And developers are still power hungry. Pachter sees these issues and thinks "doomed". People with actual skin in the game think "how will we solve this?".

 

[Version 3.0]

Consoles have a major youtube and twitch problem.

PCs are going to kill consoles through penis envy? That's a 20-year-old arguement.

But of course, Youtube is the catalyst to make it finally happen.

Oh, but PCs are doomed because of tablets. Haven't you heard?

Maybe everyone needs to calm the fuck down with "doomed". All these segments can, and indeed already do, co-exist just fine.

 

[ArtHands]

When one truly wants to take good photos they buy a camera. For a better portable media viewing experience a tablet is better. For a better gaming experience a dedicated console is better. If Nintendo believed in the converge device movement they would have made the Switch with regular tablet functionality as well but it will probably go as far as having an internet browser. For minimal usage convergence is okay but you can't get better than having a device dedicated to one purpose. If you try to be everything to everyone you'll only end up being okay at many things but not amazing at one.

can you really say these specialize cases are enough to support the camera industry now? Most common folks has decided that smartphone camera is good enough for everyday use. The statistics has spoke for itself. watching videos on smartphone or tablet doesnt change my point. When i am talking about portable media player, i am referring to products like Zune and Creative Zen.

being dedicated and best to one purpose isnt enough, and dedicated game console aint literally dedicated nowadays, when they have multimedia features like playing video or web browsers. Heck you can even livestream your PS4 gaming now.

 

[Mobius and pet octopus]

I would not bet on Nintendo getting technology trends right.