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[slavesnyder]

It's the other way round, Pachter!
Mobile phones and PCs will disappear in the next 2 years because you can do everything on your console.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Obviously the future is play your games anywhere and conveniently. Anyone that can't imagine or see that... I dunno. It's pretty obvious what Sony wishes they can do.

Things have changed very dramatically in a short time with games. Even though games themselves have always been changing. Arcade to home to on the go.

Games have always had these functions but how and how many are on them has been the bigger factor. those two last points will keep changing

 

[J_ToSaveTheDay]

I saw this theory/prediction in a recent Pach video but I had a hard time completely interpreting what he meant. Is he suggesting that games will be produced and sold like tiny arcade cabinets that are interfaceable with a large range of devices (perhaps like a Chromecast)?

I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around what he's saying, because it still sounds like you need some sort of console to actually render the games in question.

And I sure as hell don't see telecommunications (ISPs) advancing enough for consumer-level folks in a lot of places to be able to stream games well from a remote source. Telecommunications/ISPs only actually seems to be getting further and further behind the capabilities and demands of technologies, not keeping up with it...

 

[DrSlek]

Obviously the future is play your games anywhere and conveniently. Anyone that can't imagine or see that... I dunno. It's pretty obvious what Sony wishes they can do.

The next nintendo console will be a Switch-like device with the ability to stream games over the internet anywhere.

Mark my words!

 

[KaYotiX]

Pretty sure he said this 10 years ago

 

[EventHorizon]

I saw this theory/prediction in a recent Pach video but I had a hard time completely interpreting what he meant. Is he suggesting that games will be produced and sold like tiny arcade cabinets that are interfaceable with a large range of devices (perhaps like a Chromecast)?

I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around what he's saying, because it still sounds like you need some sort of console to actually render the games in question.

What Pachter is saying is that console hardware will become a commodity. Video games will become like Netflix is now. They will simply be available everywhere. No one buys a piece of hardware specifically for Netflix access. Netflix access is simply assumed a prerequisite for a multimedia device to be viable.

I'm not so sure that interpretation will hold up. Video games have an important difference from multimedia service apps like Netflix. Multimedia apps have a fixed upper bound computational requirement. Once a device can accurately play a movie or TV show, there is little advantage to increasing computational ability. Furthermore, since that task has a very limited scope, it can be hard coded into hardware making it cheap and easily included in many devices. The market for console games so far rewards increasing processing power. That means purpose built gamimg hardware that can wring out extra performance/price (aka value) will be more desirable for gaming than general purpose hardware.

 

[Tarin02543]

Right now there is no clear king of gaming, everything can be played on everything.

I think Scorpio might be a game changer, because Microsoft knows hardware.

 

[Pasedo]

At one point businesses were thinking converged devices will be the future but customers have shown they still prefer separate devices for different things. Laptops for work, mobile for calls and on the go accessing of online content, dedicated gaming consoles. I think this is just our natural preference as we are more comfortable with simplicity and order rather than complexity. And the more functions you fit into a device the more complicated we perceive it. Tech may progress to a point where our toasters can toast bread and play games at 4k but I don't think it's something the consumer would want. You can see it today. HP converged smartphones which turn into a full Windows PC on a dock. No one's heard of it because no one wants it...or People who carry iPhone with their iPads. You see people who have a PC for work and another PC dedicated to gaming when this can clearly do work as well.

 

[ArtHands]

I saw this theory/prediction in a recent Pach video but I had a hard time completely interpreting what he meant. Is he suggesting that games will be produced and sold like tiny arcade cabinets that are interfaceable with a large range of devices (perhaps like a Chromecast)?

I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around what he's saying, because it still sounds like you need some sort of console to actually render the games in question.

And I sure as hell don't see telecommunications (ISPs) advancing enough for consumer-level folks in a lot of places to be able to stream games well from a remote source. Telecommunications/ISPs only actually seems to be getting further and further behind the capabilities and demands of technologies, not keeping up with it...

he is not talking about streaming. He is talking about consolidation, and that traditional home console will disappear as a result. say a handheld device or a phone which when insert into a dock (maybe with a wireless controller), can function as a home console or/and a pc. like what Switch or Samsung Galaxy S8 is doing now, but better.

 

[TheSadRanger]

What happened to links in the OP :/

 

[ArtHands]

At one point businesses were thinking converged devices will be the future but customers have shown they still prefer separate devices for different things. Laptops for work, mobile for calls and on the go accessing of online content, dedicated gaming consoles. I think this is just our natural preference as we are more comfortable with simplicity and order rather than complexity. And the more functions you fit into a device the more complicated we perceive it. Tech may progress to a point where our toasters can toast bread and play games at 4k but I don't think it's something the consumer would want. You can see it today. HP converged smartphones which turn into a full Windows PC on a dock. No one's heard of it because no one wants it...or People who carry iPhone with their iPads. You see people who have a PC for work and another PC dedicated to gaming when this can clearly do work as well.

Thats not true though. Modern smartphone has converged internet communicator, camera, traditional mobile phone, mp3 player, portable media player etc the reasons it havent converged console gaming, PC (yet) etc is mainly due to the vast difference in terms of tech power and battery life.

 

[Steiner84]

not sure how this will work with storage space beeing the premium selling point. not going to load 50-100GB games onto my phone lol.

 

[*Splinter]

I'm confused, PC on TV has been possible for years. "AAA" on mobile won't be possible until games stop making full use of what's technologically possible.

But I guess if you predict the death of something for long enough then you have to be right eventually. The people of 2473 will look back on Pachter as a man ahead of his time... (/s)

 

[Rolf NB]

Right now there is no clear king of gaming, everything can be played on everything.

I think Scorpio might be a game changer, because Microsoft knows hardware.

I laughed, thanks.

 

[120v]

I'm confused, PC on TV has been possible for years. "AAA" on mobile won't be possible until games stop making full use of what's technologically possible.

cell phones were 'possible' in 1990, it just wasn't convenient or affordable

really no question we won't be having a standard "game box" in our living room in the future. particulars of it aren't clear, whether it'll be streaming from PC, phone or some client but things are headed that way.

 

[kyser73]

Right now there is no clear king of gaming, everything can be played on everything.

I think Scorpio might be a game changer, because Microsoft knows hardware.

Please share your parameters for that accolade.

 

[LoveCake]

Pachter has mentioned and talked about this a few times over the last couple of years, he has said that because the CPU/GPU is now integrated and can near-enough be on one single chip that Sony will end up putting a 'PlayStation' chip in it's TV's and you will have access to PSN and be able to play games direct via the TV without the need for a stand-alone unit/box (console) Microsoft will also do the same so there will be a 'Xbox' chip that will be in TV's other than Sony TV's, this does lead on to the issue of, there had best be TV's with both PlayStation and Xbox 'chips' as nobody wants to have two TV's as they take up more room and cost more than a stand-alone console.

I think that the future will be more like the Amazon Fire TV box or even Fire TV Stick that is Sony, Xbox or Nintendo, you buy the branded box connect it to your TV/AV-Amp, the internet and power and the user then signs-in to their respective account and off they go, all the games are digital and stored on the cloud along with your save games that are also backed up on the SD card that also stores your profile and license details.

I do think though that there will be a unit will have some USB and HDMI ports and something for VR connection, it will have a CPU/GPU 'single chip' there will also be RAM and something like 1TB (or maybe more) solid state storage for storing games when off-line and other account/profile data and a SD card slot.

This going slightly off topic, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the likes of Amazon partnering with Nintendo.

 

[SomTervo]

you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV

Umm... Countless people already do that. Including me.

Yet i still play all the time on my PS4 and Switch. What's with that???

Software is the thing. We're never going to see top-tier Playstation and Nintendo exclusives leave the TV stand. They sell entire systems.

 

[Lanrutcon]

So when I sit down and use an XBox controller to play WiiU games on TV via my desktop...am I the future?

 

[TrutaS]

Bigger hardware will always have better performance than smaller hardware - so I don't think mobile will ever be the only thing available. The experiences on bigger hardware will always be more impressive and therefore have a market. If the argument is that gamers will stop caring about those experiences, my answer is I think and I hope not.

 

[Sad Affleck]

Console market IS already collapsing.

What kind of data makes you believe this?

 

[OléGunner]

I cant fucking wait to download these 50 gig games and regular 10-20 gig patches over wifi or my phone's data plan.

Agreed. That's just not practical for millions of people out there, combined with storage limitations it's a bit of a stretch to think this will be standard fare.
Also battery tech is not improving at as quick a pace as processors and semi conductors.

How the hell will phones in a 3-5 years run the most advanced games on consoles without melting, blowing up, or having the battery drained in an hour.

 

[Admodieus]

Agreed. That's just not practical for millions of people out there, combined with storage limitations it's a bit of a stretch to think this will be standard fare.
Also battery tech is not improving at as quick a pace as processors and semi conductors.

How the hell will phones in a 3-5 years run the most advanced games on consoles without melting, blowing up, or having the battery drained in an hour.

You're not going to download the games, you're going to stream them, like how Playstation Now works now.

 

[Badassperger]

Pachter: everything keeps dying all the time, forever!

Basically.

 

[BlackBuzzard]

Bonus round episode just before the PS4 launched with Pachter,Jason Rubin and Seamus Blackley about the threat of mobile

 

[martino]

Console as home hardware mean less and less because the more we go the more they bring pc flaws in their designs/philosophy.
Dunno how long it will take but they will move full service/marketplace at some point.

 

[daegan]

Sony just recently killed PS Now for anything that isn't PC/PS4, presumably due to popularity. The capability for games from your phone on your TV has been there for a while as well, but even Apple can't make their box a *thing*. So where is it supposed to come from?

 

[BaasRed]

This assumes that current consoles the way they are won't advance in the timeframe. Also, 3 years to go full digital is a pipe dream. Consider how internet connections can be shit sometimes with streaming movies on Netflix. How can anyone think games will ever be viable to stream?

 

[Exodust]

Wasn't this the most widely agreed upon thing on the lead up to this gen? Because this gen definitely defied that sales wise.

I do feel like videogame consoles becoming more akin to bluray players or roku boxes is inevitable. But the norm is here to stay for a bit I think.

 

[Isurus]

Eh, the capability he has been referencing has been available for a few years now, but has yet to really take off. While it could happen, I only think it will when companies fail to create a compelling console offering. Thus far, the machines Sony, MS, and Nintendo are producing are proving to be compelling to consumers and have carved out a large space in the market. In other words, not only is there room for the console space, it is thriving. I don't see them going away until these three companies fail to innovate in the space.

 

[EASTC0AST_GH05T]

Right now there is no clear king of gaming, everything can be played on everything.

I think Scorpio might be a game changer, because Microsoft knows hardware.

You are trolling aren't you? You can never tell on GAF anymore lol.

 

[Peterc]

I've said this like 2years already, MS should stop with xbox and start with a pcbox, thats the future. It seems that another analist is thinking the same thing.

 

[EASTC0AST_GH05T]

Pachter: everything keeps dying all the time, forever!

Basically.

Hes like the Grim Reaper aint he? so obsessed with the death of everything involving gaming.

 

[The Scrivener]

No.

Yes. And by that I mean I am agreeing with you. No, Pachter, no.

 

[Patrick S.]

PCs and phones will be more powerful, but the ones that are really fast and suitable for gaming will only go up in price.

The thing with consoles is that the reason why I have consoles isn't that my phone or PC isn't powerful enough. No, it's that I WANT a console. I LOVE consoles, and will buy consoles. As long as millions of people are like me, and secure that there's good money to be made with consoles, consoles won't go away.

 

[Pasedo]

Thats not true though. Modern smartphone has converged internet communicator, camera, traditional mobile phone, mp3 player, portable media player etc the reasons it havent converged console gaming, PC (yet) etc is mainly due to the vast difference in terms of tech power and battery life.

When one truly wants to take good photos they buy a camera. For a better portable media viewing experience a tablet is better. For a better gaming experience a dedicated console is better. If Nintendo believed in the converge device movement they would have made the Switch with regular tablet functionality as well but it will probably go as far as having an internet browser. For minimal usage convergence is okay but you can't get better than having a device dedicated to one purpose. If you try to be everything to everyone you'll only end up being okay at many things but not amazing at one.

 

[joker3782]

Is there a list out there of predictions that Pachter has gotten right and predictions he's gotten wrong? I'm interested in seeing what sort of predictions he's always good at predicting, aswell as seeing which one he's been the most wrong on.

 

[Bluth54]

Consoles are moving closer and closer to PCs with each passing generation. At this point they pretty much close to being PCs with a digital store/service locked to a single provider. I could see this happening.

I wonder how long it's going to be until SoCs are cheap and powerful enough to put in Smart TVs when they can do more than just run apps but play full PC games.

 

[OléGunner]

You're not going to download the games, you're going to stream them, like how Playstation Now works now.

Oh yeah sure totally!
I should've added that distinction.

But like others have said I don't know how well that'll work for many people even 5 years from now as streaming via mobile internet or even home wi-fi may not be that viable due to crappy connections, data caps etc.

 

[LSWilson]

Why do we listen to this guy?

 

[TechJunk]

Right now there is no clear king of gaming, everything can be played on everything.

I think Scorpio might be a game changer, because Microsoft knows hardware.

If anything, Switch is a game changer.
Scorpio is just another me too console, upgrading specs and not much else.

 

[Skyzard]

He must have saw my windows on xbox thread.

2-3 years though...?

 

[giancarlo123x]

He truly has the best job in the world.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Evidence to back up a prediction for 10 years from now?

People mock Pachter but he's been pretty spot on when it comes to format and platform shifts over the years. And remember, one of the reasons he says stuff like this is because he knows what the industry is focusing on in research and such for years down the road. As home networks make devices more and more seamless between one another, this will be an entirely feasible and probable result. Doesn't mean we have to like it, but that's not relevant.

I never mentioned like. My point was that he has to make a little stronger an argument than "thing that we were wrong about this gen will be right eventually"

 

[BaasRed]

Is there a list out there of predictions that Pachter has gotten right and predictions he's gotten wrong? I'm interested in seeing what sort of predictions he's always good at predicting, aswell as seeing which one he's been the most wrong on.

Posted before on first page here you go:

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/michael-pachter

 

[thepenguin55]

People have been predicting this for at least the past 5 years. It's the most non-prediction prediction ever. I remember in the lead up to the launch of the Xbox One and PS4 any conversations people in the press had related to those consoles always spun of into "but people don't want consoles" conversations and they would often point to the Vita, WiiU and the slow start of the 3DS as proof that people don't want dedicated game systems anymore.

Having said all that, I definitely see a shake up happening sometime over the next 5 years. I think the most likely scenario is that at sometime within 3 years from now I can see MS pulling out of the dedicated console business by selling off the Xbox brand. This certainly isn't an original predication but I think that's WAY more likely to happen soon than total collapse of the console market. I think we have at least another decade before there's even a possibility of a total collapse of the console market.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Those phones that are supposed to run these games would be the high end devices, which are more expensive then consoles. So even if it is possible: no thanks.

 

[M3d10n]

Phone manufacturers love their premiums for extra storage, Apple most of all. It will take at least 20 years before the baseline iPhone ships with 500GBs.

 

[Klart]

Michael Pachter may collapse in the future.

 

[boneyjangles]

I don't agree, but I think it's complicated. I really doubt anytime soon we are going to see specialist gaming appliances dying, They are just too good at their niche.

Mobile games have grown quickly into their own massive thing, but what did they really kill in their wake? Mobile flash games maybe, old outdated handhelds perhaps, but they mostly carved out their own space. Consoles have continued to grow, evolve and thrive separately at what they do best.

Even when apple release controller standards and partner with people to bring traditional controls to iPhone as an option, it ends up one big nothing. On the android side, same thing. Outside of some nerds doing emulation, it's not really a successful thing. Those platforms and stores, as far as gaming, are almost 100% pitifully priced, casual games for smallish touch devices. And who wants to game much on a device you rely on throughout the day for 'everything else' in your life anyway?

iOS/Android have even struggle to bring this experience to larger screens like tablets, Microsoft have struggled to ram windows into a tablet in any way that isn't 'a tablet shaped device that runs desktop windows if you plug a keyboard and mouse in.' Linux desktop companies, same problem.

Android tv boxes, Apple TVs, smart tv's, phones casting to TV's, all good in certain ways, but for actual gaming? Same problem as phones.

On the other end of the scale, PC - incredibly powerful (potentially), incredibly versatile, I'll defend it as a laptop or desktop experience, but bring your PC gaming into the living room, and I will disagree with anyone saying it's a good experience. Sure you can play some single player games pretty unobtrusively with the controller. But for typical social/multiplayer gaming, it has many little things that all add up to make it a pain and the cumbersome. Again, i don't see it really being a popular thing,

So to recap, so far, every time one of these other platforms steps outside of it's comfort zone it's been a bad experience. Sometimes their comfort zone isn't even games at all.

The notion that 'streaming' from one of those platforms is going to change this, I think that'll either prove to be flat out wrong, or wrong for smaller more subtle reasons when compared to curated careful pairing of software and hardware that consoles bring to the table.

If you want to argue that x86 consoles (or even PC's) could be under attack and lose a bit of marketshare to smaller ARM gaming devices (like the switch) which are more convenient and run off 10-15watts rather than 100watts+ (or many times that on PC!), I'll agree with you. Especially when a lot of the times that wattage is just getting chewed up with nothing more than extra lines of resolution for the same core experience. But under attack because of streaming from phones/pcs? Nah.