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Michael Pachter: Console market may collapse in the future.
- Thread starter Gamezone
- Start date
I cant fucking wait to download these 50 gig games and regular 10-20 gig patches over wifi or my phone's data plan.
A Link to the Past
Banned
This is not an inherently bad observation, but I consider it an extreme claim since it was proven wrong in this generation, especially by Sony and Nintendo in different ways. He is going to have to find strong evidence to back this up, rather than just a hunch.
I think consoles as we know them will not be around in 20 years and could possibly be gone in another 10.
It's amazing what cheap ARM chips can do currently and we are definitely seeing diminishing returns on 3D graphics. I feel like something like OUYA is going to eventually come in and give you 90% of the visual fidelity of consoles for a fraction of the price.
Adam_Roman
Member
The closest we'll get to this is Sony making a Vita TV style box just for PS Vue, PS Now, and like Netflix/Hulu. It'll be like a $75-100 streaming box to get their online services into your house without having you make a $300 commitment to hardware you're not an enthusiast for. It'll be the box you get your uncle so he can play the Walking Dead games.
I actually think there might be some merit to what he's suggesting, although I'm not so confident in the time frame. I think that there will be a time when the processing power of phones will be (arbitrarily) 100x what is genuinely needed for normal smartphone stuff, and maybe plugging your phone into your TV via a dock will enable it to provide the processing for full console experience games. I'd be down for that. Or maybe wireless streaming will be good enough for that, who knows. It's too easy to dismiss ideas because they are different and/or distressing.
Maybe reframe this by looking at how digital & mobile have affected other content delivery hardware.
In Video, streaming is it, but has obvious issues when it comes to gaming.
For music, hardware has moved from component or integrated stacks to wireless amp/speaker combinations, linked though Bluetooth.
My guess would be:
Dedicated consoles go the way of audiophile/videophile hardware, with a lucrative but relatively niche audience (this is pretty much where the market is now, in fact) buying a traditional all-in-one unit, but the bulk of games being distributed via digital shopfronts, and played on a combination of tablet/controller/throwcast to TV.
Basically a 'Switch+' kinda thing.
In Video, streaming is it, but has obvious issues when it comes to gaming.
For music, hardware has moved from component or integrated stacks to wireless amp/speaker combinations, linked though Bluetooth.
My guess would be:
Dedicated consoles go the way of audiophile/videophile hardware, with a lucrative but relatively niche audience (this is pretty much where the market is now, in fact) buying a traditional all-in-one unit, but the bulk of games being distributed via digital shopfronts, and played on a combination of tablet/controller/throwcast to TV.
Basically a 'Switch+' kinda thing.
snowsabre93
Member
Not a chance that this happens within in the next 2-3 years. By 2019 Sony/Ms will be releasing PS5/the new Xbox.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
I do have the feeling that the console landscape will change at some point. 5, 10 years ago I could expect a new, next generation console at some point. But after Scorpio and PS4Pro, I'm having my doubts for the the next 10 years.
Who knows what happens after that.
Who knows what happens after that.
Doctoglethorpe
Member
Guys this is what were giving up net neutrality for. Without the red tape the ISPs can finally give us lag free, cap free, lightspeed internet! HQ Streaming video games for everyone! Wooooooooooooooo
GlassAwful
Member
I'd wager he's about right with the ten year outlook.
In 2027 we will probably be looking at the release of the IPhone XVI near the end of the NEXT generation of consoles. Think about where mobile processing, wireless internet and streaming tech will be at that point.
We have to start admitting that we are hitting a wall with what developers can produce to take advantage of hardware enhancements. So when you factor in diminishing returns, less AAA devs, and insatiable mobile processing development you start to see where these things could converge into.. Mobile gaming is good enough ten years from now to play a mainline COD sequel.
Take that and built in "it just works" streaming tech to any nearby compatible TV as well as support for traditional gaming controller, who wouldn't jump on that? Or maybe since every phone will double as a good VR headset at that point no one even cares about TVs..
I mean isn't that what the Switch is suggesting even now in 2017? Maybe not quite there yet but it's starting the conversation at least.
In 2027 we will probably be looking at the release of the IPhone XVI near the end of the NEXT generation of consoles. Think about where mobile processing, wireless internet and streaming tech will be at that point.
We have to start admitting that we are hitting a wall with what developers can produce to take advantage of hardware enhancements. So when you factor in diminishing returns, less AAA devs, and insatiable mobile processing development you start to see where these things could converge into.. Mobile gaming is good enough ten years from now to play a mainline COD sequel.
Take that and built in "it just works" streaming tech to any nearby compatible TV as well as support for traditional gaming controller, who wouldn't jump on that? Or maybe since every phone will double as a good VR headset at that point no one even cares about TVs..
I mean isn't that what the Switch is suggesting even now in 2017? Maybe not quite there yet but it's starting the conversation at least.
Falchion
Member
This was what I immediately thought as well.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Well you will be able to play PS4 games on PC this year (via PS Now), which was a laughable fantasy thought for many before last year.
Not to mention we have 2 major products (Switch and Galaxy S8) providing that "plug into dock and display on big screen" feature, the trend is certainly heading that way.
Evidence to back up a prediction for 10 years from now?
People mock Pachter but he's been pretty spot on when it comes to format and platform shifts over the years. And remember, one of the reasons he says stuff like this is because he knows what the industry is focusing on in research and such for years down the road. As home networks make devices more and more seamless between one another, this will be an entirely feasible and probable result. Doesn't mean we have to like it, but that's not relevant.
I have a Steamlink...I do that now.
Deputy Moonman
Member
Has this guy seen the generation that Sony is having? Even Microsoft is having a good generation despite all the calamities. And now Nintendo is stepping things up. Pachter is way off base.
Theoretically that could be a company like Sony doing just this and calling it the PS6
TriniTrin
war of titties grampa
Didn't he say this in 2015? I liked Shuhei Yoshida's response back then.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
Maybe if game streaming takes off.
Gamezone
Gold Member
That shit can never replace hardware.
If anything, the console - or maybe the Switch style console - makes more sense as an entertainment peripheral than he realizes as time moves forward because they already have built in distribution ecosystems and large social communities.
Patcher assumes too much. There's plenty of potential for market disruption in the home entertainment industry. TVs haven't done much other than try to sell you more pixels and now HDR. It's a stable but also somewhat stagnating market. PC sales have been trending downward, in some cases sharply, for some time now. There's a lot of unforeseen things down the road.
Streaming is going to probably win at some point, but there's a lot of other unknowns in there. I vaguely remember a Lucasfilm rep was asked years ago why Star Wars movies weren't immediately put on Blu-Ray and he said something to the effect that they were going to skip Blu-Ray because movies could be put on flash cards in a few years instead. He was double wrong. They caved to Blu Ray and then Streaming destroyed the entire market. Physical format itself became irrelevant. That's the only reliable trend at this point.
Patcher assumes too much. There's plenty of potential for market disruption in the home entertainment industry. TVs haven't done much other than try to sell you more pixels and now HDR. It's a stable but also somewhat stagnating market. PC sales have been trending downward, in some cases sharply, for some time now. There's a lot of unforeseen things down the road.
Streaming is going to probably win at some point, but there's a lot of other unknowns in there. I vaguely remember a Lucasfilm rep was asked years ago why Star Wars movies weren't immediately put on Blu-Ray and he said something to the effect that they were going to skip Blu-Ray because movies could be put on flash cards in a few years instead. He was double wrong. They caved to Blu Ray and then Streaming destroyed the entire market. Physical format itself became irrelevant. That's the only reliable trend at this point.
Demoskinos
Member
I'd believe that if the PS4 didn't come out of the gate and set the goddamn world on fire. It may never reach quite PS2 levels but I think it reaffirmed that console gaming is still alive for awhile longer.
Buggy Loop
Member
I agree with him, maybe not in that time frame though.
But eventually, yes.
But eventually, yes.
LordRaptor
Member
In point of fact, although general consumer PC purchases have been declining - because a tablet is straight up better than a netbook for light internet usage - PC gaming continues to grow, both in hardware and software.
Beerman462
Member
Eliminating exclusives would be the best for all gamers. Imagine Uncharted unbound by a single console. If all hardware were ubiquitous everyone would benefit.
And we're done here. First post nails it. Pachter gonna Pachter. Amirite GAF
fvng
Member
DPtheGod
Member
What a bunch of bs. Between the Switch, Xbox One, and PS4, there's.... what? 80 million consoles sold combined? Sure, the Switch amounts to roughly 1 million but nonetheless, how many active users are there on Steam vs the combined market of PSN/XBL? Console gaming is here to stay. Physical console gaming may die, yes, but consoles are going nowhere.
Except the switch is a hand-held. So 1 out of 3 have left the market. Any market that shrinks 1/3 is not healthy from 250 million to maybe 120-150 million.
I'm sorry... What?
Laughing Banana
Weeping Pickle
This is like me making a "prediction" that someday I will die.
Well no shit.
Well no shit.
The Alpacalypse
Neo Member
Oh god, it's the lead up to the crash all over again.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
Awesome. I hope it happens in a more positive way and less negative. People reacting like gaming is doomed. No, it's not. Consoles are doomed? No, not likely. But could the market shrink a lot? Probably. Will a lot of previously console only gamers move more to PC? That is my hope.
Will PC gaming look like it does today's traditional huge PC hooked to monitor etc.? Who knows. There are a lot of options in PC gaming. Tons.
Will PC gaming look like it does today's traditional huge PC hooked to monitor etc.? Who knows. There are a lot of options in PC gaming. Tons.
It's not that surprising. Both Sony and Microsoft's (gaming) business is centered around their services (PSN and XBL). Microsoft is already pushing their service as their priority with Xbox on Windows, and have said as much already. Sony is also experimenting with subscription-based services (on non-Sony hardware) such as PlayStation Now. I'm sure both would love to sell you a subscription through an app on a variety of hardware.
Last I could find was 125 million active users from Feburary 2015.
Last I could find was 125 million active users from Feburary 2015.
Well I never imagined that something tiny like the Intel compute stick would exist a decade ago yet it does and can run Skyrim... poorly. Unless Sony and Microsoft abandon standard consoles at the same time I dont see it heading towards micro devices in the next ten years or ever.
Auto-Reply
Member
The idea is kinda logical but as long as there is no battery revolution, there will be no mobile gaming revolution (in the sense of stationary gaming and mobile gaming will become interchangeable, guess there is also the heat problem).
If there ever is a "battery revolution" I imagine it will be rather quick though, the entire process will be accellerated lightning fast.
If there ever is a "battery revolution" I imagine it will be rather quick though, the entire process will be accellerated lightning fast.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Please dont do that. Shuhei Yoshida can be wrong too.
12Dannu123
Member
I think he's wrong of a total collapse of the console market. However it is possible that AMD and Intel regarding X86-64 that they will no longer license from each other, and go their seperate ways, if that happens. Then there will be a collapse of the console ecosystem including the PC gaming ecosystem.
Sad Affleck
Member
Not for another 20 years. Internet access and infrastructure around the world isn't anywhere near where it should be for that to happen.
This.
Also, I'm pretty sure he said this before PS4 and Xbox One came out. He has a track record of making some pretty inaccurate predictions. He said Nintendo would pull out of the console business in 2006 and that the Wii motion controls wouldn't be accepted. He said PS360 and Wii would be the last consoles. He said Xbox One would outsell the PS4.
I know people do the whole drive by "lets post that the opposite will happen" things and people get irritated, but the fact is, he does quite often miss the mark. Sure he gets some things right, but many of the things he gets right are pretty flipping obvious - I mena he once made the startling prediction that GTA IV would sell well. GEE MICHAEL, YA THINK?
Again, I'm sure he will say "consoles are going to die, this is the last console generation" again. He will probably say it every gen. Eventually he might end up being right and then he will probably be all "yup, I called it guys" - it isn't really being an amazing analyst if you predict the same thing over and over again. Eventually yes, it might happen.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Assuming he makes money off of giving investors sound financial advice and seeing as he's still doing this after all these years much to some people on GAF's chagrin, he makes his clients money. The nature of his job doesn't allow him to be wrong all the time.
It may not be the timeframe he envisions, but he sees something that is something to pay attention to imo.
I'd be interested in if his opinion is if the crash is the level of the Atari crash in the 80's or if it's more of a correction.