Monty Mole said:
So - it is easier to do a MS and go for the core first and then try and head for the casual as your hardware price decreases? Or is it easier to do a Nintendo and go for the casual first and then try and get the core later on?
I think it's probably more difficult to grab the existing traditional, more hardcore gamer segment (several years into the lifespan of a system) from a more firmly casual platform than it is to try and broaden your appeal to casual gamers from a platform that started out appealing to hardcore. Of course, the big thing is how you paint and market your not-so-hardcore-focused 'casual' games to the existing audience and if that can also attract people from the outside of that group. The same obviously holds true for traditional 'gamer' games for a not-so-'gamer'-focused platform. The best way would be to sow the seeds early on of a range of both types of appeal...and not allow yourself to become too defined by one or the other.
MS will probably have an easier time convincing non-gamers, light/casual gamers, whatever to buy a system (at the low price) for some interesting and highly novel experiences that share some similarities with the Wii, but are clearly more broad in potential application due to the broader nature of the interface. (With Ninty capturing a lot of the outside group first and by a large margin, this dynamic is certain to be different this time, but not necessarily unworkable on some significant level.)
Ninty will always have a larger audience to immediately sell to and, at this point, that might include a wave of newer, more homegrown-on-the-Wii hardcore gamers in addition to the probably smaller, pre-Wii gamer group that was there from the beginning. (Remember, hardcore gamers mostly had to start playing games of some type to start...usually the type that aren't so veteran-focused.)
I think it's a mistake to think that there's a clear delineation that separates the game types from the audiences so perfectly. After all, you can be hardcore with the some of most casual-seeming of titles and the most hardcore-seeming of titles can greatly appeal to casuals. Clearly, there's an issue of association by popularity and marketing at work. (I really hate trying to figure out a satisfactory term or label for certain groups simplified for the ease of communication of the concepts. Also annoying is the tendency for people to think that all software titles, especially the popular ones, are one way or the other. Many of the top performers (Halo, COD, GTA, Mario, Zelda) are clearly masters of capturing a chunk of both and everything in between.)
Will there ever be a console again that grabs both markets almost equally (ie PS1/PS2)?
I don't think those were locked in from the very beginning...that's just how they ended up through their dominance of the market. Past platforms usually grabbed the hardcore market first (because of the high price and limited and more focused selection of software) and scooped up casual players when the lower price points and broader software library started to aim toward them.