Trying to get caught up, but it's almost time for bed, so I'm just gonna go ahead and post these for now.
719K is US NPD totals for Jan, Feb, March 2014. That doesn't include any of the other 12 countries because we don't have solid data for them. In Europe, the price was even more drastically cut than the $50 temporary retailer discount here in the US. Titanfall was number one on the UK sales charts so I'm sure there was some boost at least there.
What I'm trying to get at really is this. Retailers order more shipments to replenish stock. If the 900K consoles were still in the warehouse, the retailers would not have ordered 1.2 million more from Microsoft. Instead, Microsoft has shipped out an average of 400K a month to at bare minimum replenish stock.
When MS announced they'd shipped 10M XB360s, it was estimated there were about 2M unsold in the channel at the time. That's why their shipments for the following quarters were only 0.5M and 0.7M. So yes, it's entirely possible and even likely that stock has increased from the 900K left over from Q4, especially when MS are bundling the Game of the Century and giving retailers $50+ per unit for all of the stock they're already sitting on, and probably the stock they're trying to persuade them to take delivery on too.
Have you seen Titanfall?? Look at all these awards!! This shit's gonna SELL!! Don't miss out!!
Anyways the US historically accounts for about 60% of their WW sales fyi, so holding to that ratio, MS would sell 1.166M WW in that time period while retailers having had 2.1M units to sell [900K + 1.2M]
That's 1.2M. If they'd actually sold 1.2M, don't you think they would've said that, instead of 1.2M shipped?
Huh not sure PS4 will hit 1M a month for April then
Why is that? The 7M was as of April 4th. If the numbers Thuway is quoting are from the 18th since obviously they wouldn't have the numbers from the 25th yet that's ~500K in two weeks. That's actually a bit faster than what they've averaged so far this year. (200K/wk)
From audio conference:
Xbox One engagement levels remain high, users spending nearly 5 hours per day on Xbox One
Expect channel inventory draw down in xbox consoles in Q2, historically slower quarter for hardware
Whoa. That means there's too much stock in the channel now, so they need to reduce shipments to help sell some of it off? Like they did after stuffing the channels with the XB360 back in 2006? Wouldn't that seem to indicate that stocks are higher now than they were at the end of 2013, since they didn't draw down in Q1? If Q2 is "historically slow," wouldn't it make it that much harder to sell off old stock, especially with no major releases scheduled?
But if mort is correct then the only logical place MS could have more sales is outside the US, UK would make up a decent portion but I can't explain where they would be coming from
To be fair to Mort, I was under the impression he was just quoting what he was told by his "contacts at MS," and I don't think they're under any obligation to be truthful with him. They may be "rounding up," as they were thought to have done with their 3M-sold announcement.
Regarding your estimate of 4.2-4.4M sold, can you explain how you got to that number? I'm assuming you started with the 3M figure rather than the 2.8M we were told they'd actually sold at the end of the year. So add 700K from the US, and I believe you estimated ~150K from the UK? That only brings us up to 3.85M. Where exactly do you think they sold an additional 350-550K? Those other countries only sold 600-800K combined during Q4. I can't imagine they did another ~450K in Q1. Regarding 4.4M specifically, that would indicate sales of 1.4M for the quarter. Again, why not tell us that, instead of 1.2M shipped?
Personally, I'm guessing they're around 3.75M now: 2.8M (2013) + 700K (US) + 150K (UK) + 100K (elsewhere). Maybe 4M, if the 3M was actually legit. Regardless of what their 2013 total actually was though, it seems fairly clear they sold less than 1.2M this quarter, or we'd have gotten that number instead. But instead of telling us how awesome their sales were last quarter, what they actually said was, "Whoops; we've got
way too many of these things on the shelves now. Excuse us while we fix it."
Draw down is normal during this upcoming quarter. Even with a launch being only 6 months before. Even Sony's orders will likely drop as retailers are now getting regular stock. My local best buy's have had dozens of both systems the last month every time I'm in there. Its really a seasonality issue.
That's not what they're talking about though. Sure, shipments always go down in Q2, but my understanding and I may be completely wrong about this is that "inventory drawdown" refers specifically to reducing production/shipments in an effort to sell off surplus stock. That would seem to imply their Q2 drop-off will be larger than one would normally expect for Q2, because they're holding more stock from Q4/Q1 than they should be (as opposed to having an "appropriate" amount of post-Q1 stock on hand).
