XB1 probably need FIFA exclusive for Europe and CoD for US to turn this around.
Fifa exclusive is literally impossible, it's in the licensing.
XB1 probably need FIFA exclusive for Europe and CoD for US to turn this around.
Well, the store in Manchester NH is currently averaging shipments of PS4s between 30-50 per week, selling 25-50 each week (so either almost sold out, or sold out), the Nashua NH store gets shipments of 30-40 with average sales of 20-30 per week.
XB1 is getting 40-50 ever 3-4 weeks in those stores, average 8-10 per week, each store. During the peak of the XB1 TF sales, those stores were at 15-19 per week. Take that how you will.
At its price and with how few markets its available in, that's pretty damn good.
Here's one of the most important lessons I learned from Sales-age GAF. In sales threads you often see people saying "[Blank] is doing fine if you consider that [x], [y], and [z]." They think this is a defense. But it isn't, because any statement structured like that can be rearranged to this, which has the exact same logic:And, trust me, they could have been in much worse position with the popularity of the PS4 and the price disadvantage
Well, the store in Manchester NH is currently averaging shipments of PS4s between 30-50 per week, selling 25-50 each week (so either almost sold out, or sold out), the Nashua NH store gets shipments of 30-40 with average sales of 20-30 per week.
XB1 is getting 40-50 ever 3-4 weeks in those stores, average 8-10 per week, each store. During the peak of the XB1 TF sales, those stores were at 15-19 per week. Take that how you will.
Don't forget surface and stuff is also in there. But its very unclear to me how those devices are actually doing. I assume like crap but I have no idea.
So those unsold XBO's are just piling up each week? Yikes.
I'm assuming the XBO will be $399.99 by June, so maybe that'll heat things up in favor of XBO as well? Or will it take a lot more than the price drop at this point?
Why would they do that? Send them back to Microsoft if you have to, or let them rot on shelves until Microsoft officially drops the price. There's no scenario where a retailer would willing take a $50 loss on an Xbox One at this time.
I always thought retailers incurred fees if they returned stock to the manufacturer.
I'm quite happy there has only been one SKU from both Microsoft and Sony this gen.
Xbox bullet points:
And two random charts. Only consoles that launched in US+Europe in Q4.
The Xbox 360 Q1 number without Japan is from my ass. I just subtracted 50k (what was sold to consumers) from the reported shipment.
Oh so, PS4 beating Xbox One in its absolute core market in the month of its biggest release of the year by 19% is now better because on average the Xbox One is selling more units per country?Factor in the number of countries both consoles have launched in and the difference in sales isn't that surprising.
!MS shipped 1.2 million in 2014 so far. Sony sold through 2.8 million in 2014 so far
Oh so, PS4 beating Xbox One in its absolute core market in the month of its biggest release of the year by 19% is now better because on average the Xbox One is selling more units per country?
!
Microsoft is likely storing them in warehouses. We know they were making at least 1m consoles per month to start--the first units were made at the beginning of September, and by year's end they'd sold-in 3.9m. So unless their manufacturing contract allows production quotas to be varied (I have no idea how likely that is), then they've manufactured ~7m. This number is higher than their sold-in report by 1.9m units, and those would be in warehouses.So here's an interesting question
In the same timeframe, Sony has sold 7M to consumers, MS sold 5M to retailers
Even assuming that PS4 is completely sold out which it isn't really, unless MS has a drastically lower production contract than Sony, where are those 2M other XB1's?
Made Sold-in Whse
Q4 '13 3.90m 3.90m 0
Q1 '14 7.00m 5.10m 1.90m
Q2 '14* 10.0m 6.00m 4.00m
Q3 '14* 13.0m 8.00m 5.00m
Q4 '14* 16.0m 12.5m 3.50m
*projected
2 things: you're assuming that MS is warehousing them in 3rd party warehouses. They own many facilities that can house them. Second, at least a good portion of those will be sent to tier 2 countries for their launch later this year.Microsoft is likely storing them in warehouses. We know they were making at least 1m consoles per month to start--the first units were made at the beginning of September, and by year's end they'd sold-in 3.9m. So unless their manufacturing contract allows production quotas to be varied (I have no idea how likely that is), then they've manufactured ~7m. This number is higher than their sold-in report by 1.9m units, and those would be in warehouses.
Note that I work in electronics distribution, and when I say "warehouses" I don't mean the places that receive truckloads of Xbox Ones and send small quantities to a bunch of retail stores. In the parlance, those are DCs (distribution centers). Whether the DC is owned by a retail chain or by a VAR, all the stock in them counts as "sold-in" because it's paid for and destined to be offered for sale in the short term. A warehouse, on the other hand, is a medium- or long-term storage facility for unsold goods. Indeed, they're worse than merely "unsold", as Microsoft will be paying stocking costs to the warehouse owner.
This problem will keep getting worse. They sold 1.2m units in calendar Q1, and project to sell less in Q2...which means they're already warehousing far more units than they'll need for the entire next three months. For months to come, every Xbox One coming off the assembly line will cost Microsoft not just the manufacturing price, but also gradually mounting stocking fees. Something like this:
Note that my sales projections, while not best-case, intentionally lean toward being too kind (they're better than 360's first- and second-year numbers in those quarters). And even still Microsoft would start 2015 with unsold stock nearly twice what they have right now.Code:Made Sold-in Whse Q4 '13 3.90m 3.90m 0 Q1 '14 7.00m 5.10m 1.90m Q2 '14* 10.0m 6.00m 4.00m Q3 '14* 13.0m 8.00m 5.00m Q4 '14* 16.0m 12.5m 3.50m *projected
2 things: you're assuming that MS is warehousing them in 3rd party warehouses. They own many facilities that can house them. Second, at least a good portion of those will be sent to tier 2 countries for their launch later this year.
All of this is far-reaching speculation made by people (including myself) that really shouldn't be making it. I love reading about things like this and speculating as well as reading all these leaps in logic from reading an earnings report. There maybe some truth to some of these things.
Fact is, we really don't know. I will just sit back and play my PS4 and XB1 and enjoy them. I suggest we all should do the same.
Wait the 1.2 million number was shipped?
Wii U and Xbone have similar bars... weird.
Microsoft is likely storing them in warehouses. We know they were making at least 1m consoles per month to start--the first units were made at the beginning of September, and by year's end they'd sold-in 3.9m. So unless their manufacturing contract allows production quotas to be varied (I have no idea how likely that is), then they've manufactured ~7m. This number is higher than their sold-in report by 1.9m units, and those would be in warehouses.
Note that I work in electronics distribution, and when I say "warehouses" I don't mean the places that receive truckloads of Xbox Ones and send small quantities to a bunch of retail stores. In the parlance, those are DCs (distribution centers). Whether the DC is owned by a retail chain or by a VAR, all the stock in them counts as "sold-in" because it's paid for and destined to be offered for sale in the short term. A warehouse, on the other hand, is a medium- or long-term storage facility for unsold goods. Indeed, they're worse than merely "unsold", as Microsoft will be paying stocking costs to the warehouse owner.
This problem will keep getting worse. They sold 1.2m units in calendar Q1, and project to sell less in Q2...which means they're already warehousing far more units than they'll need for the entire next three months. For months to come, every Xbox One coming off the assembly line will cost Microsoft not just the manufacturing price, but also gradually mounting stocking fees. Something like this:
Note that my sales projections, while not best-case, intentionally lean toward being too kind (they're better than 360's first- and second-year numbers in those quarters). And even still Microsoft would start 2015 with unsold stock nearly twice what they have right now.Code:Made Sold-in Whse Q4 '13 3.90m 3.90m 0 Q1 '14 7.00m 5.10m 1.90m Q2 '14* 10.0m 6.00m 4.00m Q3 '14* 13.0m 8.00m 5.00m Q4 '14* 16.0m 12.5m 3.50m *projected
Whoever thought to arrange a marketing deal between PlayStation and Watch Dogs / Destiny is a genius. That guarantees NPD dominance until the holidays.
But the holiday season should be interesting...
I don't think The Order or Halo 5 will make it. So will it come down to DriveClub + The Last of Us Remastered vs. Sunset Overdrive + Halo 2 Remastered?
I'm assuming the XBO will be $399.99 by June, so maybe that'll heat things up in favor of XBO as well? Or will it take a lot more than the price drop at this point?
LOL.
.... At the the idea the Wii U will sell over 20 million.
This graphic is never gonna happen
No way Wii U sells that much
Edit: Damn it funky
MS can lower the production based in the demand... they are not making 1 million per month anymore. They don't need to mount everything too... for example they contracted 10 million APU chips and received everything but that don't means they mounted 10 million consoles... they can hold components to future production.Microsoft is likely storing them in warehouses. We know they were making at least 1m consoles per month to start--the first units were made at the beginning of September, and by year's end they'd sold-in 3.9m. So unless their manufacturing contract allows production quotas to be varied (I have no idea how likely that is), then they've manufactured ~7m. This number is higher than their sold-in report by 1.9m units, and those would be in warehouses.
Note that I work in electronics distribution, and when I say "warehouses" I don't mean the places that receive truckloads of Xbox Ones and send small quantities to a bunch of retail stores. In the parlance, those are DCs (distribution centers). Whether the DC is owned by a retail chain or by a VAR, all the stock in them counts as "sold-in" because it's paid for and destined to be offered for sale in the short term. A warehouse, on the other hand, is a medium- or long-term storage facility for unsold goods. Indeed, they're worse than merely "unsold", as Microsoft will be paying stocking costs to the warehouse owner.
This problem will keep getting worse. They sold 1.2m units in calendar Q1, and project to sell less in Q2...which means they're already warehousing far more units than they'll need for the entire next three months. For months to come, every Xbox One coming off the assembly line will cost Microsoft not just the manufacturing price, but also gradually mounting stocking fees. Something like this:
Note that my sales projections, while not best-case, intentionally lean toward being too kind (they're better than 360's first- and second-year numbers in those quarters). And even still Microsoft would start 2015 with unsold stock nearly twice what they have right now.Code:Made Sold-in Whse Q4 '13 3.90m 3.90m 0 Q1 '14 7.00m 5.10m 1.90m Q2 '14* 10.0m 6.00m 4.00m Q3 '14* 13.0m 8.00m 5.00m Q4 '14* 16.0m 12.5m 3.50m *projected
2 things
- Why would MS have spare warehouse room for 2M XB1's? Unless you're suggesting MS planned for this eventuality?
- This is a sales thread so suggesting we all sit back and play games is simply put ridiculous. You can in fact not click on such threads as these if they apparently annoy you as such
Yes MS shipped 1.2M XB1's to retailers in 2014
You guys do realize those sales numbers are actually the ones for the PS2, Xbox and Gamecube right?
where's the 2m number coming from? they sold 2.5m consoles through march in the us. is there anything to have us believe it's 0.5-0.6m sold in the rest of the launched regions?
But they know what they need to do NOW, it's a marathon not a sprint.
Production capacity is based in estimated demand.Do you believe MS's production capacity is 30% less than Sony with PS4? If it's the same then there's at least 1.9M unaccounted for XB1's based on those numbers
I have trouble believing when MS signed their manufacturing contract for the XB1, they thought they'd have trouble selling this early in
Production capacity is based in estimated demand.
Sony increased the production from 2013 to 2014 while MS decreased.
It is not like that... every month is made a new reestimate to future production and if Foxconn stop to produce Xbone they will produce others things... they have a lot of contracts.How? Production contracts for 1M consoles a month are not changed overnight. Foxconn would only accept such a contract with 12 months of production guaranteed lest they need to completely retool and retrain assembly lines and factories
We're at month 6
So whats the consensus? Great numbers when compared to Microsofts previous product but poor compared to the primary competitions?
Personally I welcome back my blue overlords.
Huh never put that together. I know that was the PS2 LTD though but never connected the dots around GCN and OGXB
That being said with the way the Wii U is tracking, that actually suggests Wii U is unlikely to get to 22M
Do you believe MS's production capacity is 30% less than Sony with PS4? If it's the same then there's at least 1.9M unaccounted for XB1's based on those numbers
I have trouble believing when MS signed their manufacturing contract for the XB1, they thought they'd have trouble selling this early in
I find it doubtful MS has made exactly 5.1M XB1's up to this point. 6M at least imo
It is not like that... every month is made a new reestimate to future production and if Foxconn stop to produce Xbone they will produce others things... they have a lot of contracts.
Production is based in estimates demand... that is why in the holidays they increase the production.
Contract already anticipate these changes.
i haven't kept up on the numbers. we know there's 2.9m ps4s sold through march and about 7m through the first week of april, so that means ~roughly~ 4m for the rest of the launch regions. i don't know what the sales in the rest of the world are for xbox one, but if we're looking at half a million then microsoft is in huge trouble.
personally i would expect worldwide sales to total perhaps 4m, leaving 1m unsold consoles throughout the world. not a fantastic proposition, but 4m consoles moved to customers in that span of time and with that price really isn't that out of the norm. the comparison to the ps4 is what hurts it. the ps4 is not your normal console launch. it's the fastest-selling console ever (outside japan). comparing the xbox one to the ps4 is like comparing the psp's respectable numbers to the ds's record-breaking ones. it skews perception when the result isn't all that bad.
at least that's how i see it.
I believe you typically incur penalties for reducing fab utility so it would depend on whether the storage exceeded that presumably. Although I don't necessarily think that both companies had the same production capacity.Production capacity is based in estimated demand.
Sony increased the production from 2013 to 2014 while MS decreased. I guess Sony actual production capacity is 1.0-1.2 million consoles per month while MS production capacity is more close to 0.5m per month.
All of this is far-reaching speculation made by people (including myself) that really shouldn't be making it. I love reading about things like this and speculating as well as reading all these leaps in logic from reading an earnings report. There maybe some truth to some of these things.
Fact is, we really don't know. I will just sit back and play my PS4 and XB1 and enjoy them. I suggest we all should do the same.
Microsoft is likely storing them in warehouses. We know they were making at least 1m consoles per month to start--the first units were made at the beginning of September, and by year's end they'd sold-in 3.9m. So unless their manufacturing contract allows production quotas to be varied (I have no idea how likely that is), then they've manufactured ~7m. This number is higher than their sold-in report by 1.9m units, and those would be in warehouses.
Note that I work in electronics distribution, and when I say "warehouses" I don't mean the places that receive truckloads of Xbox Ones and send small quantities to a bunch of retail stores. In the parlance, those are DCs (distribution centers). Whether the DC is owned by a retail chain or by a VAR, all the stock in them counts as "sold-in" because it's paid for and destined to be offered for sale in the short term. A warehouse, on the other hand, is a medium- or long-term storage facility for unsold goods. Indeed, they're worse than merely "unsold", as Microsoft will be paying stocking costs to the warehouse owner.
This problem will keep getting worse. They sold 1.2m units in calendar Q1, and project to sell less in Q2...which means they're already warehousing far more units than they'll need for the entire next three months. For months to come, every Xbox One coming off the assembly line will cost Microsoft not just the manufacturing price, but also gradually mounting stocking fees. Something like this:
Note that my sales projections, while not best-case, intentionally lean toward being too kind (they're better than 360's first- and second-year numbers in those quarters). And even still Microsoft would start 2015 with unsold stock nearly twice what they have right now.Code:Made Sold-in Whse Q4 '13 3.90m 3.90m 0 Q1 '14 7.00m 5.10m 1.90m Q2 '14* 10.0m 6.00m 4.00m Q3 '14* 13.0m 8.00m 5.00m Q4 '14* 16.0m 12.5m 3.50m *projected
Every company predicted these things on contract... it is called Capacity Planning... there is no way a contract predict the same amount of production for the holidays period than the first months of the year.The contract MS [and presumably everyone else] had with Foxconn predicted Hardware sales cratering in January? Or that MS would not sell through what was being produced?
It is by no means free, cheap or easy to change assembly lines from a hard contract like what a console would have. I don't know what makes you think it would be
Hmm if the PS4 wasn't in play, the XB1 numbers would be phenomenal, the hard LTD numbers are still fantastic but LTD in Q1 is less than ideal imo
I would say XB1's WW LTD is around 4.1M - 4.3M although mort quoted higher
I do believe that while there is probably some unsold stock with retailers [shipped, not sold-through] the real worry is if there is already XB1's not being sold-in to retailers at this point which could very well be the case depending on MS's production capacity for the XB1
What's even more troubling, is if they lower the price to $450, no one will fall for it, because most consumers have already seen the $450 price tag all last month by retailers.
They're now gonna have to drop the price by $100 if they want to continue to be relevant. AND bundle a game on top of that.
PS4 still sold out? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KXrQYWbbIs#t=18s
I just checked Amazon, Gamestop, and Target. All have them online, and at all stores in my area (Northern Virginia)
Every company predicted these things on contract... it is called Capacity Planning... there is no way a contract predict the same amount of production for the holidays period than the first months of the year.
After that you work every month using the data you have like inventory, demand, market trend to fit the production for the next months or quarters.
That's why when you have a unpredictable increase in demand you face supply issues... and when your product have unpredictable bad sales you start to have a lot of inventory in the retail.
If you have a increase in demand then in the next months you will increase the production... if you have issues to sell a product then in the next month you will decrease the production.
Some companies works with monthly orders and others with two or three months orders but I never saw one working with a fixed production for more than three months.
i think the reaction to the q3 (fy, or q1 cy) numbers is also overblown. it's fairly in line with shipments of the xbox 360 over the last couple of years. maybe down by several hundred thousand, but nothing to indicate something disastrous. it all looks pretty good to me. healthy, at least.
What annoys me the most is all the talk about X1's piling up in stores when I still can't buy it unless importing up here in Sweden. If MS fails this gen they only have themselves to blame. Aren't we still talking about 13 countries for X1 worldwide?
Since you clearly know, how many facilities do they have?2 things: you're assuming that MS is warehousing them in 3rd party warehouses. They own many facilities that can house them.
All those launches put together will be less than a million units. Last gen ~55% of all Xbox sales were in the U.S.; another 5% in the rest of NA; another 10% in the UK; and let's guess that all the other One launch territories add up to another 10%. That'd suggest launch in all remaining countries would sell ~1m units over the first 4.5 months. (The real situation is likely even worse, as several tier 2 countries already have stock, imported from neighboring tier 1s and included in the sold-in number we have now.)Second, at least a good portion of those will be sent to tier 2 countries for their launch later this year.
I work for a giant electronics distribution company. I am speaking from a position of knowledge about the field, even if I have no direct insider info on videogame hardware. (We carry Microsoft products, but not consoles.)All of this is far-reaching speculation made by people (including myself) that really shouldn't be making it.
The contract MS [and presumably everyone else] had with Foxconn predicted Hardware sales cratering in January? Or that MS would not sell through what was being produced?
It is by no means free, cheap or easy to change assembly lines from a hard contract like what a console would have. I don't know what makes you think it would be
Well I guess they (and the retail) predicted Titanfall should sell more consoles in Q1... if you are MS and a big hype game in the hands you see three possible scenarios:We've had two examples thus far of MS's inability to predict demand for their console, 3.9M versus 3M for the holidays/launch and presumably now as they give out 5.1M shipped both in PR and in earnings reports [normal in earnings though]
I would never presume MS wanted the exact same production in Q1 as in Launch but all signs point to higher production than demand and the question is how much
The real crux of the issue is how much MS is producing I suppose although I have yet to see any XB1 shortages
Why would they do that? Send them back to Microsoft if you have to, or let them rot on shelves until Microsoft officially drops the price. There's no scenario where a retailer would willing take a $50 loss on an Xbox One at this time.
Microsoft started later; their first units came off the assembly lines at the beginning of September, while PS4 components were already being sent for assembly in early June, and production was projected to ramp to 1m units by September (meaning some smaller amount would be made before that). Production capacity of the two consoles definitely does appear to have been about the same during lead-up/launch.You are assuming that they are the MS production is like the Sony production but at the end of 2013 MS shipped 3.9m consoles and Sony ~4.5m consoles.
Fair enough; as I stated in my post, I was assuming fixed production quotas since I'd heard that elsewhere on GAF. If it's not the case, then storage of unsold units shouldn't be a problem for Microsoft.MS can lower the production based in the demand... they are not making 1 million per month anymore. They don't need to mount everything too... for example they contracted 10 million APU chips and received everything but that don't means they mounted 10 million consoles... they can hold components to future production.