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Looking at these polls, I'm so glad I registered republican so I can vote against Cruz. He scares me the most. I couldn't live in a world controlled by Cruz.
Cruz would never win the general election.
Looking at these polls, I'm so glad I registered republican so I can vote against Cruz. He scares me the most. I couldn't live in a world controlled by Cruz.
He rates Trump's chances of winning the nomination slightly higher than "Other." Nate is slowly backpedaling from saying Trump has no shot in the primary to saying he has no shot in the general.Huh? What he's saying is exactly right. Someone like Trump would have no chance in general election. Primaries skew towards extremist voters, which tamps down for the main election. Plus, the current polling is going to shift a lot as more candidates drop out.
He makes decent people feel uncomfortable just looking at him. Nobody outside of the bubble could vote for that guy.
Glad Carson is looking more and more like a flash in the pan. That man is certifiable.
JEB! is fading fast.
How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side
I think a lot of you on here overestimate the amount of Republicans turned off by him.
In the general I do think he's even less electable than Trump/Carson.
How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side
Once the moderates who are at the bottom drop out, someone is going to get a fairly large bump. I don't see Christie, Bush, and Forina supporters moving over to Trump or Carson.
How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side
I wanna feel bad for the guy, but he's too proud to admit how much of a wildcard Trump is and that no mathematical model, no matter how well tuned, could reasonably be expected to account for him.
Fiorina was always done.
The only reason she got a bump was because some groups made a stink of her not being featured in one of the debates.
Cruz is Canadian and can't be elected. I don't get why the party of birthers is even letting him entertain the idea that he will be the one to destroy us.
How Rubio is in 4th in these polls is mind boggling, he is like the only fucking sain person running on the pub side
Why would you expect a large bump when the "moderate" candidates have such miniscule support? And what about the bump when Carson or Cruz or even Trump drop out? I doubt their supporters would go support someone like Rubio or Jeb.
Cruz is Canadian and can't be elected. I don't get why the party of birthers is even letting him entertain the idea that he will be the one to destroy us.
I hate Cruz, but he is a natural born citizen thanks to his father.
No, he's not.
Talk of Nate Silver brought me to this, which is an interesting view of Trumps potential obstacles:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
In B 4 they are all crazy?
I am certain that they are not stupid. I meant to say that they are the ones who (purposefully) say the stupidest things. Which makes Cruz in particular so unbearable.
I'm still willing to give Silver a bit more of a benefit of the doubt, given his track record. The things he's been saying (early polling is unreliable, Trump win is unlikely because he doesn't fit the mold) are true. And he's made a statement about what criteria would have to be met before he started calling Trump "the frontrunner." If he sees Trump is still leading into December, I fully expect him to start talking about Trump like he's got a serious chance of winning. If he didn't do that, then I'd think Silver had lost it.
Cruz is Canadian and can't be elected. I don't get why the party of birthers is even letting him entertain the idea that he will be the one to destroy us.
Well he's got 10 days to come to terms with it.
Currently saying stuff like:
@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?
Should be noted that that article is over 3 months old and some of the stuff doesn't apply anymore. He even says in that article that by November voters will start looking into other candidates...and that hasn't happened. There are still obstacles for Trump but Nate's been saying for months that this Trump "surge" will be over soon and he's been proven wrong time after time.
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): So, my theory of the case is still contained in the “Six Stages Of Doom” article I wrote about Trump in August. That suggests that it’s still very early. Trump has perhaps survived Stage 1, “Free-for-all.” It seems clear that his success in the polls is not ​purely a result of media coverage — although media coverage plays a very important part of it, as we can discuss later on. But we haven’t really entered Stage 2 yet, which is “heightened scrutiny.” That’s when voters start to pay more attention to the race and polls start to measure likely voters instead of all Republican-ish adults.
It’s interesting that Trump’s numbers were rattled a bit after each of the first two debates, for instance, since that’s a time when the candidates were on a more level playing field.
tl;dr: Sure, his chances look a little better than they did a month or so ago. But I’m not sure anything all that fundamental has changed, and the fundamentals would imply his odds of winning the nomination are still pretty darn low.
They need to reboot Jeb as an edgier character.
Give him a headband or a badass pet.
maybe even a hoodie?
Sorry should have posted where I got th elink that has a little more updated:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
In his opinion Trumps odd double after each stage, so probably in the double digits according to him.
My own view is that in the end Trump will have a 50/50 at getting the nomination. We'd really have to see how big the Anti-Trump crowd is at the end of it all, once that pack shakes out a little.
Talk of Nate Silver brought me to this, which is an interesting view of Trumps potential obstacles:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
Theres some evidence that Trump is over-performing among low-information voters. By November, their ranks will decrease: Theyll either have become more informed, or theyll be screened out by pollsters because they arent likely to vote.
Well he's got 10 days to come to terms with it.
Currently saying stuff like:
@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?
Losing his credibility by the hour.Currently saying stuff like:
@NateSilver538 - About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?
Trump basically went cray cray about Carson and told the world fiorina interrupts too much and he gained strength. Lol.
When do the betting markets start to capture this?
Trump went down 2 points. How is that gaining strength?
Carson stepped into the spotlight and got exposed
Trump went down 2 points. How is that gaining strength?
Carson stepped into the spotlight and got exposed