• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NeoGAF March 8th/11th Caucus Thread (Wyoming + Mississippi = OBAMATON)

Status
Not open for further replies.
S

Star Power

Member
Karma Kramer said:
Lets say she barely passes Obama in the popular vote... like by a couple thousands or a couple tens of thousands... or fuck even a couple hundred thousands.

How will it be justifiably when Obama has a clear lead in delegates? Super-delegates are slowly going to Obama... cause they know he is the nominee. They know that at this point giving their support to Hillary and turning this race around would be suicidal for the Democratic Party.
Click to expand...


Not if Hillary puts Obama on the ticket...
 
A

Atrus

Gold Member
Cheebs said:
I agree. But this week has been bad bad bad for Obama. His worst this campaign.

It was losing first and now the media is claiming his campaign is a big mess with people contradicting eachother and making wild claims.

I know GAF thinks todays big story is +4 delegates in California, but it's not. It's the monster comment.
Click to expand...

Why is this meaningful? Obama will still lead in the delegates and every time she under-performs 60-40 wins in every state, or does worse than a 55-45 in PA, loses a super-delegate, or has an uncommitted super-delegate to Obama the worse her position is.

Outside of the math, her failure as a candidate coupled with the perfidy of her conduct means she needs no attention. What enables the media, are the one's who eat it up and makes something out of nothing.

She could win, but at this point there's little justification as to why she should win.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
if he loses then she picks up even more votes which makes her amount grow higher.
Click to expand...

He has ZERO in Michigan right now. So if there's a do-over, and he's on the ballot, he will gain ground in the overall popular vote.

Illustration -

Currently

Clinton - 328,151
Obama - 0

Imaginary future situation

Clinton 400,000
Obama - 350,000

Even if Clinton increases her vote, and wins, Obama gains in the overall popular vote. Clinton would have to utterly blow Obama out of the water there for him to lose ground in the popular vote. Not going to happen.

And even without that, I doubt he'll cede much ground overall. Outside of PA, he's going to win plenty of states, and some by very large margins (Mississippi).
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Jesus, Gary Hart just laid the smack down over at HuffPo:

It will come as a surprise to many people that there are rules in politics. Most of those rules are unwritten and are based on common understandings, acceptable practices, and the best interest of the political party a candidate seeks to lead. One of those rules is this: Do not provide ammunition to the opposition party that can be used to destroy your party's nominee. This is a hyper-truth where the presidential contest is concerned.

By saying that only she and John McCain are qualified to lead the country, particularly in times of crisis, Hillary Clinton has broken that rule, severely damaged the Democratic candidate who may well be the party's nominee, and, perhaps most ominously, revealed the unlimited lengths to which she will go to achieve power. She has essentially said that the Democratic party deserves to lose unless it nominates her....

If Mrs. Clinton loses the nomination, her failure will be traced to the date she voted to empower George W. Bush to invade Iraq. That is not the kind of judgment, or wisdom, required by the leader answering the phone in the night. For her now to claim that Senator Obama is not qualified to answer the crisis phone is the height of irony if not chutzpah, and calls into question whether her primary loyalty is to the Democratic party and the nation or to her own ambition.
Click to expand...
 
C

Cheebs

Member
grandjedi6 said:
:lol :lol

So the non-believers became the insane Obama fans? :lol
Click to expand...
Its hilarious to see those with Obama avatars in there bashing Obama. :lol Incognito said was a incompetent senator or something.
 
Guileless

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
The proportional delegate system is obviously flawed and will be revised before 2012 to avert another fiasco. The delegate count is not some sacred talisman written into the Constitution by the Founding Fathers, like the Electoral College. If Sen. Clinton wins the popular vote (as Cheebs said, unlikely but not impossible) based on winning the large, important blue states, is within a few percentage points of the delegate count, and has the 'momentum,' she has a good argument to make to the superdelegates to choose her over Sen. Obama. I can envision this happening without the world ending.
 
A

APF

Member
Cheebs, I like you but I think all this is going to give you an aneurysm. There's still a long row to hoe.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
GhaleonEB said:
He has ZERO in Michigan right now. So if there's a do-over, and he's on the ballot, he will gain ground in the overall popular vote.

Illustration -

Currently

Clinton - 328,151
Obama - 0

Imaginary future situation

Clinton 400,000
Obama - 350,000

Even if Clinton increases her vote, and wins, Obama gains in the overall popular vote. Clinton would have to utterly blow Obama out of the water there for him to lose ground in the popular vote. Not going to happen.

And even without that, I doubt he'll cede much ground overall. Outside of PA, he's going to win plenty of states, and some by very large margins (Mississippi).
Click to expand...

Uh...her current MI votes aren't counted in any popular vote tally.

It's currently:
Clinton - 0
Obama - 0

APF said:
Cheebs, I like you but I think all this is going to give you an aneurysm. There's still a long row to hoe.
Click to expand...
It probably will.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Guileless said:
The proportional delegate system is obviously flawed and will be revised before 2012 to avert another fiasco. The delegate count is not some sacred talisman written into the Constitution by the Founding Fathers, like the Electoral College. If Sen. Clinton wins the popular vote (as Cheebs said, unlikely but not impossible) based on winning the large, important blue states, is within a few percentage points of the delegate count, and has the 'momentum,' she has a good argument to make to the superdelegates to choose her over Sen. Obama. I can envision this happening without the world ending.
Click to expand...

It's an argument certainly. Would it be good enough? That depends on the pledged delegate gap. Alternatively it might be convincing if Obama's electability has seriously suffered by then.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Cheebs said:
Its hilarious to see those with Obama avatars in there bashing Obama. :lol Incognito said was a incompetent senator or something.
Click to expand...

"Ineffective" was the word.

I became an Obama convert around April 07.
 
M

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
APF: Is the issue that Obama and Clinton are using absolute phrases instead of conditional ones? Like they're saying "I will..." when they really mean "Barring external events changing our plans, I intend to..."?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
Uh...her current MI votes aren't counted in any popular vote tally.

It's currently:
Clinton - 0
Obama - 0
Click to expand...
It's counted in the one she's been touting, which is the argument she's using to try and presuade supers. Which was the premise of your comment.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
GhaleonEB said:
He has ZERO in Michigan right now. So if there's a do-over, and he's on the ballot, he will gain ground in the overall popular vote.

Illustration -

Currently

Clinton - 328,151
Obama - 0

Imaginary future situation

Clinton 400,000
Obama - 350,000

Even if Clinton increases her vote, and wins, Obama gains in the overall popular vote. Clinton would have to utterly blow Obama out of the water there for him to lose ground in the popular vote. Not going to happen.

And even without that, I doubt he'll cede much ground overall. Outside of PA, he's going to win plenty of states, and some by very large margins (Mississippi).
Click to expand...

What of the following states does he look to win?

WY (O)
MS (O)
PA (C)
IN
NC
SD
MT
WV
KY
OR

People here have been saying that Indiana and Oregon are his states. How's it look in North Carolina? Would he have the same margins or close to it he had in South Carolina? And would his gains in North Dakota translate to gains in South Dakota?
 
A

Atrus

Gold Member
Karma Kramer said:
Wow Hillary playing the gender card in WY.
Click to expand...

She's been playing the gender card for a while, and she can get away with it because of the perception disparity between asking that a woman get placed in the white house than asking that for a black.

What I don't like about her sexist appeal though is that it appeals to derogatory generalizations, especially when she asked women the following:

"Now, I think we need somebody whose got some experience cleaning house to go into the White House,” she said to cheers. “So, I might ask you to grab your brooms and your mops, your vacuum cleaners and come on up and help me out.""
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Atrus said:
"Now, I think we need somebody whose got some experience cleaning house to go into the White House,” she said to cheers. “So, I might ask you to grab your brooms and your mops, your vacuum cleaners and come on up and help me out.""
Click to expand...

holy shit, tell me the media jumped all over that one?

that's A LOT more inflammatory than an advisor calling her a monster
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
AniHawk said:
What of the following states does he look to win?

WY (O)
MS (O)
PA (C)
IN
NC
SD
MT
WV
KY
OR

People here have been saying that Indiana and Oregon are his states. How's it look in North Carolina? Would he have the same margins or close to it he had in South Carolina? And would his gains in North Dakota translate to gains in South Dakota?
Click to expand...

WY (O)
MS (O)
PA (C)
IN (Swing)
NC (O)
SD (O)
MT (O)
WV (C)
KY (C)
OR (O)

3 Clinton, 6 Obama, 1 Swing. PA being a possible upset win for Obama. At this stage anyway, 5 weeks from now he can magically be the front runner in that state and when Clinton takes it it's an upset.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
AniHawk said:
What of the following states does he look to win?

WY (O)
MS (O)
PA (C)
IN (O)
NC (O)
SD
MT
WV
KY
OR

People here have been saying that Indiana and Oregon are his states. How's it look in North Carolina? Would he have the same margins or close to it he had in South Carolina? And would his gains in North Dakota translate to gains in South Dakota?
Click to expand...

North Carolina

Edit: see above.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Rur0ni said:
WY (O)
MS (O)
PA (C)
IN (Swing)
NC (O)
SD (O)
MT (O)
WV (C)
KY (C)
OR (O)

3 Clinton, 6 Obama, 1 Swing. PA being a possible upset win for Obama. At this stage anyway, 5 weeks from now he can magically be the front runner in that state and when Clinton takes it it's an upset.
Click to expand...

I'm worried about what PA could do to perception if he loses big there. It's the first primary after next Tuesday, and it's the last one for about two weeks.
 
M

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
Eh, I take white papers as statements of intent. They're all subject to change due to external events and going through the Congressional sausage-maker, but they're still useful guides to the candidates' positions.

If Clinton and Obama want to withhold the right to change the rate of withdrawal from Iraq because facts on the ground change, I'm okay with that. It would be an issue for me if they were secretly planning to continue the war at the current levels indefinitely.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
AniHawk said:
I'm worried about what PA could do to perception if he loses big there. It's the first primary after next Tuesday, and it's the last one for about two weeks.
Click to expand...
PA is the new Iowa as the media likes to say.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
AniHawk said:
I'm worried about what PA could do to perception if he loses big there. It's the first primary after next Tuesday, and it's the last one for about two weeks.
Click to expand...
Well to be honest, it's gonna be hard to judge anything regarding PA until the week before the primary. Hell, Texas just showed that all ya need is 3 days to make a difference. So make that April 19-20th. ;)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
AniHawk said:
I'm worried about what PA could do to perception if he loses big there. It's the first primary after next Tuesday, and it's the last one for about two weeks.
Click to expand...
It's a long ways away, so I think he'll close the gap, but not win it. He'll be coming off two wins in the meantime. Two weeks later even more delegates are up for grabs in states he's likely to win. Hillary - and the media - are framing PA as the big showdown, but the next round is even bigger.
 
S

Star Power

Member
LOL @ his facial expression:

s-POWERS-RESIGNS-large.jpg
 
S

syllogism

Member
I really don't think he can close the gap (10-15%), barring a Hillary blunder.

Hillary whining about caucuses right now in a town hall meeting. Apparently Obama supporters are caucus veterans. Downplaying her chances.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
syllogism said:
I really don't think he can close the gap (10-15%), barring a Hillary blunder.

Hillary whining about caucuses right now in a town hall meeting. Apparently Obama supporters are caucus veterans.
Click to expand...

is she whining about caucuses in WY?
 
A

artredis1980

Banned
David Plouffe attacks Hillary Clinton again, this time HARD:


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensm...open_and_honest_with_the_American_people.html


"Behind closed doors, they're trying to prevent the American people from evaluating [Clinton's White House] experience," he said. "You have to wonder whether she'll be open and honest with the American people as president."


He also noted, again, that Clinton doesn't need to wait until April 15 to release the last six years of tax returns.

Clinton is "one of the most secretive politicians in America today," he said.
Click to expand...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
syllogism said:
I really don't think he can close the gap (10-15%), barring a Hillary blunder.

Hillary whining about caucuses right now in a town hall meeting. Apparently Obama supporters are caucus veterans.
Click to expand...

That's okay. She can have her supporters just steal his votes later.
 
A

APF

Member
I think it's significant when you claim he's a far-left Manchurian Candidate, and in actuality when pressed his people are all, "no really if anything he'll be further to the right." This of course will become more apparent as we enter into the General Election and he swings back to the center. As I've said repeatedly today, there's a consistent message coming from his camp, and it's, "we're basically full of hot air; pay no attention to this garbage we're spewing, we don't even believe it ourselves.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
2 in 10 Clinton Primary Voters Weren't Going To Vote For Obama (2008 Flashback)
16
3K
ModBot replied
Slate: Why Obama Voters Defected
2
97
12K
excelsiorlef replied
67 Environmental Rules on the Way Out Under Trump
2
98
8K
GrizzleBoy replied
  • Locked
538: Clinton and Trump are losing a lot of young voters
3 4 5 6 7
323
33K
MHWilliams replied
Indiana GOP expanded early voting in GOP-dominated areas & restricted it in Dem-areas
2
77
10K
Acerac replied
Top Bottom