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NeoGAF March 8th/11th Caucus Thread (Wyoming + Mississippi = OBAMATON)

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O

Odrion

Banned
This mixture of blind optimism and cruel pessimism is crushing my brain.

I wish I could see from a mathematical point of view the possibly of who is more likely to win.
 
Guileless

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
An addendum to the Hillary victory scenario: to assuage their guilt, she could promise the remaining uncommitted supers she would offer the VP slot to Sen. Obama first, and pledge to support him fully as leader of the party when she steps down. She could also offer political favors in exchange for support in a more direct manner than Sen. Obama might be comfortable doing.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Guileless said:
An addendum to the Hillary victory scenario: to assuage their guilt, she could promise the remaining uncommitted supers she would offer the VP slot to Sen. Obama first, and pledge to support him fully as leader of the party when she steps down. She could also offer political favors in exchange for support in a more direct manner than Sen. Obama might be comfortable doing.
Click to expand...

Superdelegates shouldn't work like special interest groups.

But maybe that's why she could be so successful with them.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
How did we get to a point where it is being spun like that Clinton and Obama are in a dead-heat in delegate count when that could not be further from the truth?

Odrion said:
This mixture of blind optimism and cruel pessimism is crushing my brain.

I wish I could see from a mathematical point of view the possibly of who is more likely to win.
Click to expand...

Obama. Hillary needs to win every remaining state in a 62-38 split to just TIE Obama in the pledged delegate count.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
reilo said:
How did we get to a point where it is being spun like that Clinton and Obama are in a dead-heat in delegate count when that could not be further from the truth?



Obama. Hillary needs to win every remaining state in a 62-38 split to just TIE Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Click to expand...

Voodoo Monster Voodoo
 
A

AniHawk

Member
reilo said:
How did we get to a point where it is being spun like that Clinton and Obama are in a dead-heat in delegate count when that could not be further from the truth?



Obama. Hillary needs to win every remaining state in a 62-38 split to just TIE Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Click to expand...

I sorta blame Obama's campaign for not coming out with facts while Clinton's campaign steamrolls his with lies.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
reilo said:
How did we get to a point where it is being spun like that Clinton and Obama are in a dead-heat in delegate count when that could not be further from the truth?



Obama. Hillary needs to win every remaining state in a 62-38 split to just TIE Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Click to expand...


Because the nomination going to the convention and all hell breaking loose is a lot sexier of a story.
 
V

ViperVisor

Member
And this cross over argument of how many Dems would go and vote for McCain I've seen of MSNBC today.

McCain will be shown to be not the same as he was 8 years ago or even 4 years ago. This will be made crystal clear in the run up to Nov. So his Dem support will dry up a bit.
 
S

Star Power

Member
AniHawk said:
I sorta blame Obama's campaign for not coming out with facts while Clinton's campaign steamrolls his with lies.
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Yeah, I agree with this. This is part of the reason why this Samantha Power story bothers me so much - he lets her set the narrative, he lets her set the goalposts, he lets her get away with blatant trickery and lies (NAFTA-gate), etc. He has to be more tough.
 
S

syllogism

Member
Oops, she said Katrina victims don't deserve to be treated like second class citizens. She seemed to realize it but too late.

edit: oh wait that was Mississippi
 
S

Slurpy

*drowns in jizz*
maynerd said:
Ahh ok. Olberman brought it up on his show yesterday.
Click to expand...

Olbermann preaches to the converted. It should be on fucking CNN, during Primetime. I mean, they hammered the BS NAFTA thing for like a week straight everyday. The least they can do is put some emphasis on the true story now. Or will that do nothing for ratings?
 
K

Karma Kramer

Banned
Star Power said:
Yeah, I agree with this. This is part of the reason why this Samantha Power story bothers me so much - he lets her set the narrative, he lets her set the goalposts, he lets her get away with blatant trickery and lies (NAFTA-gate), etc. He has to be more tough.
Click to expand...

I don't think he needs to be tough. Should keep doing what he is doing imo. He should just be himself.
 
mashoutposse

mashoutposse

Ante Up
Odrion said:
This mixture of blind optimism and cruel pessimism is crushing my brain.

I wish I could see from a mathematical point of view the possibly of who is more likely to win.
Click to expand...

HRC has to win every contest from here on out 60%-40% to tie. Every time she comes up short, the required margin increases for all subsequent contests.

Prior to March 4, Clinton needed to be 57-43 the rest of the way through. She needs 60-40 now because she underperformed that goal on Tuesday.
 
S

Star Power

Member
Karma Kramer said:
I don't think he needs to be tough. Should keep doing what he is doing imo. He should just be himself.
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Maybe tough wasn't the right word. "Assertive" is more what I meant.. doing what he is doing now isn't doing him any favors really...
 
V

ViperVisor

Member
HRC camp KNOWS the math why do you think they and her supporters are jumping on anything they can and running with it full speed.

The BS NAFTA thing
The BS Kenn Starr thing
The BS Monster thing
The BS Iraq withdrawal thing
 
O

Odrion

Banned
reilo said:
Obama. Hillary needs to win every remaining state in a 62-38 split to just TIE Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Click to expand...
But that sounds impossible to accomplish unless he starts appearing to his rallies naked. Why the hell is everyone acting this way?
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Odrion said:
But that sounds impossible to accomplish unless he starts appearing to his rallies naked. Why the hell is everyone acting this way?
Click to expand...

Is this your first time watching the news :lol?

Obama stated it perfectly in a debate a few months ago: "This is the silly season of politics."

Clinton is on her last legs and she is trying everything and anything to get this nomination.
 
A

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
Nice article Cowboy. Going to quote one more part:

Clinton's path to the nomination, then, involves the following steps: kneecap an eloquent, inspiring, reform-minded young leader who happens to be the first serious African American presidential candidate (meanwhile cementing her own reputation for Nixonian ruthlessness) and then win a contested convention by persuading party elites to override the results at the polls. The plan may also involve trying to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations, after having explicitly agreed that the results would not count toward delegate totals. Oh, and her campaign has periodically hinted that some of Obama's elected delegates might break off and support her. I don't think she'd be in a position to defeat Hitler's dog in November, let alone a popular war hero.

Some Clinton supporters, like my friend (and historian) David Greenberg, have been assuring us that lengthy primary fights go on all the time and that the winner doesn't necessarily suffer a mortal wound in the process. But Clinton's kamikaze mission is likely to be unusually damaging. Not only is the opportunity cost--to wrap up the nomination, and spend John McCain into the ground for four months--uniquely high, but the venue could not be less convenient. Pennsylvania is a swing state that Democrats will almost certainly need to win in November, and Clinton will spend seven weeks and millions of dollars there making the case that Obama is unfit to set foot in the White House. You couldn't create a more damaging scenario if you tried.
Click to expand...
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
gary hart said:
calls into question whether her primary loyalty is to the Democratic party and the nation or to her own ambition.
Click to expand...

Uhh... I really don't think that's in question any longer at all.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
Pennsylvania is a swing state that Democrats will almost certainly need to win in November, and Clinton will spend seven weeks and millions of dollars there making the case that Obama is unfit to set foot in the White House. You couldn't create a more damaging scenario if you tried.
Click to expand...

shit
 
S

Slurpy

*drowns in jizz*
APF said:
As I've said repeatedly today, there's a consistent message coming from me, and it's, "I'm basically full of hot air; pay no attention to this garbage I'm spewing, I don't even believe it myself.
Click to expand...

I, and most everyone here couldn't have described you better if we tried- Amazing!
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Pelosi asks Clinton, Obama to quit bickering.

Some quotes from the article:
"I would encourage both of them, as I have, to remember we have to keep our eyes on the prize, which is the general election in November," Pelosi said Friday at a luncheon in New York sponsored by Lifetime Networks and the Hearst Corp., parent company of The Chronicle.

"We are all very passionate about our politics and the issues we believe in, but we have to be very dispassionate about how we approach winning. We have to lift the debate to a place that does not turn off the American people."

[...]

Pelosi said she was concerned that the negative campaigning could weaken the ultimate nominee - which could also hurt the Democratic Party's efforts to maintain or grow its majorities in Congress.

"My responsibility as speaker is to make sure that I have a Democratic majority in the Congress of the United States," she said. "So while I want these candidates to operate on a proper tone so one of them will be in the White House, I have to insist upon it because I can't have their - if you want to call it bickering - have an impact on my congressional races."
Click to expand...
 
A

APF

Member
You couldn't describe me better than someone who provides a completely accurate and balanced portrayal of what's been coming out of Obama's camp in the last few days? Agreed.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Deus Ex Machina said:
Why are they so afraid to tell Hillary stop going negative? How do you not expect Obama to respond to some of these outright lies?

Is she some kind of idiot?
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She's trying to stay neutral. If this goes to the convention - as is likely - she'll probably be one of the people involved in any negotiations. I think she can ask Clinton to chill out without actually showing favoritism, but I suspect she's just playing it safe.
 
M

maynerd

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
She's trying to stay neutral. If this goes to the convention - as is likely - she'll probably be one of the people involved in any negotiations. I think she can ask Clinton to chill out without actually showing favoritism, but I suspect she's just playing it safe.
Click to expand...

I hope behind closed doors she is ripping her a new one.
 
M

MiketheBSG

Member
Smiles and Cries said:
TEXAS

Primary:
Clinton won the primary with 51 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 47 percent, according to the Associated Press. Those results earned her 65 delegates to Obama's 61 delegates.

Caucus:
The state Democratic Party estimates that Obama will come out ahead: 37 pledged delegates to Clinton's 30 delegates


Clinton: 65 + 30 = 95
Obama: 61 + 37 = 98
Click to expand...

Obama will most likely get more than 7 more delegates because he's going to win by a bigger margin, as well as win in areas with a higher designation of delegates.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
PhoenixDark said:
The caucus was irrelevant considering he still lost the state. While this spin is indeed entertaining it's not extremely truthful.
Click to expand...


But he won the state.
 
M

MiketheBSG

Member
...how is the Texas caucus "irrelevant" when a third of the delegates are designated to the caucus vote? It's not like that state's caucus was some bonus vote a la the Washington primary...on the Democratic side of that, where they did the caucus earlier, THAT was irrelevant.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Star Power said:
Why are you guys arguing this. Who cares? He lost Texas in terms of popular vote, at this point it's about "momentum" which is what a popular vote win gives you, regardless of delegate totals. We all know he actually won the delegate count, but do the headlines say that? No. So, for all intents and purposes, Hillary won Texas. Big deal. I thought we were over that already.
Click to expand...


Yep Al Gore won the Presidential Contest in 2000 too. :rolleyes:
 
M

maximum360

Member
MiketheBSG said:
...how is the Texas caucus "irrelevant" when a third of the delegates are designated to the caucus vote? It's not like that state's caucus was some bonus vote a la the Washington primary...on the Democratic side of that, where they did the caucus earlier, THAT was irrelevant.
Click to expand...

It's irrelevant because Hillary says it's irrelevant.
 
A

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
mckmas8808 said:
Yep Al Gore won the Presidential Contest in 2000 too. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Well at least there you have a colorable argument re vote counting and Bush v. Gore. This is like saying Grover Cleveland won the 1888 election.
 
K

killakiz

Member
The part of texas primary system is to win the popular and the caucus, imagine if popular vote was used to determine who was president then .........
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Here's the easy answer. Make sure Obama wins the popular vote too so Hillary doesn't have a "valid" claim to the super delegates.

See? There you go.
 
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