With numbers of games, the GBA/DS (like the Gameboy before them) also received huge amounts of licensed shovelware that has now largely disappeared to mobile.Different times, different budgets, different mobile competition and thus very different third-party support.
Third-party game releases divided by region
America:
GBA: 950
3DS: 344
Other (Europe etc.):
GBA: 848
3DS: 384
Japan:
GBA: 679
3DS: 472
It's especially telling that in Japan, 3DS is already many million over GBA final LTD but it's unlikely 3DS is going to receive the same quantity of games from third-party (the cause is not just a matter of HW userbase !).
Again very different situation.
It doesn't (as I've highlighted budgets and ROI come into play) but it's clear that 3DS getting less than half GBA third-party releases (huge drop) is part of why 3DS performance outside Japan were disappointing.Well yeah. Very different times. I really don't think the sheer amount of releases tells the whole picture of third party support of any specific platform. There are simply way less releases nowadays on all platforms (games take more money and time to make). I mean PS4 will not probably get anywhere near the same amount of retail releases as PS2 but in reality it has the support of pretty much the whole industry just like PS2 had.
Well yeah. Very different times. I really don't think the sheer amount of releases tells the whole picture of third party support of any specific platform. There are simply way less releases nowadays on all platforms (games take more money and time to make). I mean PS4 will not probably get anywhere near the same amount of retail releases as PS2 but in reality it has the support of pretty much the whole industry just like PS2 had.
You're crazy if you think 3DS is going to sell 10 or more million units. There aren't any major releases after Pokemon and the NX is coming out next year.
Slight correction but Q4 2008 would be the 4th holiday season for DS.You can see the full 3DS TTM (trailing twelve months, which smooths out seasonal variations in demand) sales graph here:
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/Matt..._revisions_improve_Nintendos_handheld_biz.php
3DS sales peaked in the quarter ending in September 2012, seven quarters into its lifespan and before even its second holiday season, at around 15M/year.
DS sales peaked in Q4 2008 at around 30M/year, over four years into its lifespan (17 quarters) and in its fifth holiday season.
GBA sales peaked in Q4 2003 at around 18M/year, twelve quarters into its lifespan and in its third holiday season.
Except I wouldn't even say it is that. A lot of it is parents no longer buying their kids the $100-$200 handheld videogame system when they can just give them their old phone or tablet.No one is arguing that the nearly 60% drop from the DS to the 3DS can't be accounted for. Smartphones hit dedicated gaming devices hard. The Vita is more than proof of that.
The 3DS weathered the storm better than Sony's handheld did, however, a 60% drop from your previous product is not really excellent sales.
As for RIM/Blackberry:
Marketshare took a huge dive, because iOS/Android blew the market open, but their sales numbers actually continued to increase or slowly decrease well beyond the point that people where starting to declare them dead.
True to an extent I guess. Blackberry faltered because they couldn't match/keep up with iOS or Android in terms of features and cross platform synergy. Dedicated handhelds have declined because a lot of people are happy with the gaming experiences they can get on the mobile device they already own.
It's amazing how Nintendo managed to at least turn around the 3DS, and how the system eventually sold even with the whole "3D" name being attached to itself for its entire life.
But it's also a shame the system sold lower than Nintendo's internal expectations year after year, and if you look at the regional breakdown for 3DS sales this is a platform that has mostly been sustained by Japan, which is a stark change to previous Nintendo handhelds.
Food for thought:
Different times, different budgets, different mobile competition and thus very different third-party support.
Third-party game releases divided by region
America:
GBA: 950
3DS: 344
Other (Europe etc.):
GBA: 848
3DS: 384
Japan:
GBA: 679
3DS: 472
It's especially telling that in Japan, 3DS is already many million over GBA final LTD but it's unlikely 3DS is going to receive the same quantity of games from third-party (the cause is not just a matter of HW userbase !).
Again very different situation.
To be fair, the barriers to entry for all sorts of developers have fallen, and developers who'd traditionally need publisher funding and backing to make the kind of games they'd make in the PS2 generation can do so independently.
So I think the number of releases still bears importance, so long as they aren't (on average) selling low figures or being ignored by customers like some of the Nintendo Web Framework stuff.
This piece on The Great Software Pipeline across the hardware generations provides some interesting context.
This 60 million mark is nothing but outstanding considering the 'competition' of smartphones and tablets eating up the marketshare. I see young people playing games on a daily basis on their phones but only saw very few people playing a 3DS or Vita in public so I wonder where all these 60 million people are lol
Markets change, products change, companies change. The 3DS successor will be its own product with its own successes and failings. It's a tough market, but since Nintendo is likely to do something stupid it's too early to make firm predictions. The GBA didn't follow the same pattern as the DS/PSP, and they didn't follow the same pattern as the 3DS/Vita. New system, new trend. The real problem is that I doubt Nintendo will create a good product for the market, but they've suprised before.
Really tempted to pick up a New Nintendo 3DS tomorrow . . . is it definitely worth it? Are all games now looking better? I have a 3DS but not sure whether to take the plunge.
They did strange things with almost all of their handhelds.You say it is too early to make a prediction but yet you say Nintendo is likely to do "something" stupid. Nintendo make a few mistake with one of there handhelds(out of four) and the trend is for Nintendo to make the same mistake with the next handheld...
Congrats on the 60mil, but you'd better have a plan to replace this fucking thing that isn't 'portable version of the NX in late 2017 / early 2018'.
With the delay in the NX to early 2017 I want to see the handheld version there day and date.
Which, to be fair, is because
a) It's a really, really mediocre piece of hardware that felt dated by late 2012/2013, and
b) The software people wanted (3D Land and Mario Kart 7) and the price cut had both hit by then.
60 mil units with such a flawed product is fine. Create a better product and they can still have a market niche there.
Are you kidding me? The PS2 moved 157 Million units vs PS3 approx. 84 Million.(roughly a 46.5% decrease ) The 3DS did this with crappy support from the gaming industry. The PS3 had publishers and developers putting forth their best efforts in order to move PS3 hardware. Essentially, the gaming industry made the PS3 a success. The 3DS didn't have even that.
Announce it casually in a corporate email, followed by a few well placed "leaks" and then an initial reveal with price and games at E3 2017 with a launch soon after.
for truth.