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[Jokeropia]

Uncharted's November sales are only for like one week. Why is everyone freaking out?

Uncharted was released November 16th, the November NPD period went through December 1. That's 16 days.

 

[speculawyer]

Your analysis doesn't seem to jibe with those clever folks at Screen Digest.

 

[donny2112]

Uncharted's November sales are only for like one week. Why is everyone freaking out?

3 weeks. Thanksgiving. Full week after Thanksgiving. 2+ million userbase. Some poster's expected "big hit" to drive sales for the PS3 this fall.

 

[davepoobond]

nice analysis. enjoyed reading.

 

[Stumpokapow]

3 weeks. Thanksgiving. Full week after Thanksgiving. 2+ million userbase. Some poster's expected "big hit" to drive sales for the PS3 this fall.

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

 

[GhaleonEB]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

:lol

Well played.

 

[tanod]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

GT5: Prologue is the first big-un. Big mistake not getting that out in America this year when they probably had a reasonable chance of doing so.

 

[Dunlop]

I don't think Microsoft can compete against Nintendo with the 360. They can try with the Arcade

I think they realize this, personally I think the Arcade is timed perfectly for the overflow of parents who can not find Wii's for their kids. Most "informed" gamers will pony up the extra money for a premium or elite unless this is a second console.

I only hope that Microsoft can ride this momentum past the holidays. I have zero spare time with work and 2 small kids and yet I still purchased 4 360 games in the last 2 months.

I did buy Mario Galaxy (awsome) but as much as I will get flamed, outside of Wii sports and mario galaxy the Wii still feels too gimmicky to me.

 

[speculawyer]

Obviously they were stockpiling, or they wouldn't have been able to go from 100K/week to 125K/week to 250K/week so suddenly.

And the publicly said they were NOT stockpiling. Liars. And people actually wonder why they get accused of creating artificial shortages?

 

[Stumpokapow]

GT5: Prologue is the first big-un. Big mistake not getting that out in America this year when they probably had a reasonable chance of doing so.

GT5P will sell okay but not great in America. GT5 will almost certainly be a system seller, whenever it ends up coming out.

I think Americans are more aware of the "demo" paradigm whereby you get the preview for free and pay for the full thing or the "beta" paradigm where you play an early copy of the game for free and pay for the full thing. The Japanese are far more willing to buy what we might consider unfinished games; Director's Cuts, re-releases, and "Full Voice Editions" (IE the same game only with voice acting) are substantially more popular over there.

Even with Japan's propensity to buy stuff we wouldn't pay money for, GT4P was still a substantially lower seller than GT4. Like, an order of magnitude less copies sold. So I think it would be reasonable to expect GT5p to do 300-400k in the US but I can't imagine much more. A lot of it depends on the PSN wildcard.

 

[speculawyer]

Probably because the games just plain weren't ready to be released at launch? Sony's hand was pretty much forced in this, you know.

Well, the well-known IP games were not ready at launch since Sony instead chose to fund new IP games like Resistance, Lair, Uncharted, Motorstorm, Heavenly Sword, etc.

And I also think they've made a big mistake by wasting a dev team on a third rate NBA game when there are already two other better NBA games available. That accomplishes two bad things at once:
1) Alienates desperately needed 3rd party developers with a competitive product
2) Wastes a dev team that could be used to make another game in some genre that is under-represented.

 

[Saitou]

And the publicly said they were NOT stockpiling. Liars. And people actually wonder why they get accused of creating artificial shortages?

Stop being butthurt. Sell your TTWO and MSFT, it's all over. Be happier.

 

[Lefty42o]

GT5P will sell okay but not great in America. GT5 will almost certainly be a system seller, whenever it ends up coming out.

i am not feeling it will sell alot of systems. the game should sell well. and it will give a slight bump to ps3 sales. but its to niche in essence to be a true system seller. its like any racing game. I can't wait to buy the game but i already own a ps3. Infact no ps3 game to me was worth buying a ps3 for yet. like alot of people i was a bluray sell.

FFXIII, killzone these games will sell systems. those are the 2 big games sony needs to get out.

Next GOW III also needs to come out. the decision to put gow II on ps2 was the dumbest move of next gen.

 

[speculawyer]

Interesting point - was Microsoft so concerned about beating Sony (and arguably succeeding) that it never saw the Wii coming?

Well . . . even Nintendo didn't see the Wii coming. (I still think it is pathethic that it is over a year later and they still are unable to forecast demand & manufacture enough.)

But MS clearly has also been too slow to react to the Wii . . . I predicted that MSFT would have had their own waggle-wand with an included game by now. An xWand controller with a packed-in Wii Sports/Wii Play clone. Nope . . . all they managed to make was the simple Scene-it big button controller.

MSFT's best attack on the Wii is their $279 arcade pak which is actually a pretty nice SKU since it comes with a memory unit and has HDMI. (It is infinitely better than the original 'tard pak known as the 'Core'.)

 

[DayShallCome]

And the publicly said they were NOT stockpiling. Liars. And people actually wonder why they get accused of creating artificial shortages?

What?

Reggie: ...the amount of Wii hardware that will be in North American stores will be unprecedented—substantially more than the launch and substantially more than has been seen to date.

What exactly are you talking about?

 

[GameGamer]

Next GOW III also needs to come out. the decision to put gow II on ps2 was the dumbest move of next gen.

I really agree on that.

They should have at least delayed and come out with a PS2/PS3 release like a Ninja Gaiden Sigma. Same game but better graphics/sound.

By the time GOW3 comes out there might not be the same heat on it.

 

[theBishop]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

How many "Great game, not a system-seller"-games need to come out before the volume of great games justifies the purchase?

 

[speculawyer]

Stop being butthurt. Sell your TTWO and MSFT, it's all over. Be happier.

I don't have any MSFT . . . and TTWO has actually managed to get on the Wii bandwagon pretty quickly. They've got 6 Wii games on the shelves right now including the fast-selling Carnival Games . . . the shovelware that keeps on giving. (The others are Fantastic Four, Power Pros, The Bigs, Table Tennis, and Manhunt 2). And they have 4 more Wii games announced (Bully: Scholarship Edition, MLB 2K8, Top Spin, and Civilizations: Revolution).

I hope they have an NHL 2Kn SKU in the works . . . the Wii hockey market has been completely ignored (except maybe some old VC hockey games).

But that said, the xbox 360 is where the money is for 3rd party developers.

 

[3rdman]

You know, people keep talking about "Did Microsoft pay too much attention to Sony?" when the real question I have is "Does Microsoft have anyway to counter Nintendo?"

I don't think they do. I think the demographics that Nintendo is hitting are completely outside of Microsoft's ability to reach at the moment. They don't have the internal studios developing at the rate necessary to bring in those people. And frankly, a large segment of the Wii base is going to buy the console, enjoy Wii Sports, maybe get Mario and a couple of other games, and that's it. They're the gamers that wouldn't buy a console for Guitar Hero, but they'll gladly enjoy it when someone else has it or Rock Band. That's not your typical 360 gamer, who blithely goes from one game to the next as the community hits game after game.

I say that Microsoft had no choice but to pay attention to Sony to try to under cut Sony in North America, and I'd say they're doing a good job of it. I think a price cut right before GTA4 comes out will help lead to their growth over Sony while Nintendo will continue to ride its own wave and sell. I don't think Microsoft can compete against Nintendo with the 360. They can try with the Arcade, but frankly, I don't see that working. Hell, if they sold the Arcade for $199 with a $250 Wii, I still don't know if they would still be competing for mass market breakthrough. The Wii already has that due to its innovative control scheme and great press.

They're going after different demographics...The Xbox brand has always been about controlling the living room and digital distribution...Its winning that race just as Ninty is winning in expanding the market and how Sony is winning in the next-gen format race.

 

[jvm]

jvm you're REALLY going to want to update the Resistance numbers in case readers get the wrong impression.

Just got back online, reading through the posts now. I've sent a question to NPD and we'll know soon enough. I'll update the graph and text if necessary.

As I've said before, this is why I appreciate GAF reading things over. You've found mistakes before, and I've had them corrected. I'll do the same this time, as needed.

 

[M3Freak]

Uncharted was released November 16th, the November NPD period went through December 1. That's 16 days.

That was the unofficial release date. The official release date was a few days later (I think it was the 23rd, but I'm not sure). Still, the 20th would still not be a full month of sales. My point is valid.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Just got back online, reading through the posts now. I've sent a question to NPD and we'll know soon enough. I'll update the graph and text if necessary.

As I've said before, this is why I appreciate GAF reading things over. You've found mistakes before, and I've had them corrected. I'll do the same this time, as needed.

Spoiler

David Riley

(username "theguy" or "thatguy" these days, was

Spoiler

driley

) from NPD is the guy who posted the 757k number in this thread.

That was the unofficial release date. The official release date was a few days later (I think it was the 23rd, but I'm not sure). Still, the 20th would still not be a full month of sales. My point is valid.

No, it really isn't, Every game has less than a full months sales in their first month, so the historical comparisons people are using to consider 117k a bomb still hold, especially given the nature of November sales which accelerate towards the END of the month.

Unless a game has so few days measured in a month that it is more aptly considered to have launched in the next month, the number of days is pretty irrelevant.

 

[M3Freak]

3 weeks. Thanksgiving. Full week after Thanksgiving. 2+ million userbase. Some poster's expected "big hit" to drive sales for the PS3 this fall.

Well, in any case, too soon to be calling it a bomb. I've never heard of a game being marked as a sales disaster after only one month.

Besides, the sales numbers don't take away my enjoyment of the game. It still rocks for me.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Well, in any case, too soon to be calling it a bomb. I've never heard of a game being marked as a sales disaster after only one month.

Uh, games are VERY front-loaded.

Besides, the sales numbers don't take away my enjoyment of the game. It still rocks for me.

That would matter if the thread was called "Uncharted sucks because it didn't sell well" but it's actually called "November 2007 NPD analysis". We're talking about sales numbers, not about game quality. Carnival Games is a piece of shit, High School Musical is licenced tripe, Zack and Wiki and Uncharted are awesome. But none of that matters insofar as sales are concerned.

 

[Jokeropia]

That was the unofficial release date. The official release date was a few days later (I think it was the 23rd, but I'm not sure). Still, the 20th would still not be a full month of sales. My point is valid.

Official release date seems to have been November 19th, which still leaves 13 days including the Thanksgiving weekend. (Black Friday.) That's no less than most games get in their first month.

 

[DayShallCome]

This was posted in the NPD thread, but niceskybox.com has a deeper look at some of the title specific information (plus official NPD tie ratios) that were released over the weekend.

Great analysis on next-gen. Very well done, I look forward to it every month.

 

[Borys]

Germany (and maybe Sweden) plays PC games.

The rest of Europe plays DS and PS2, and is slowly coming around to the new consoles. Crysis hasn't exactly lit up the PAL charts.

You are annoying and wrong.

Crysis is a bomb nonetheless, can't spin those numbers. But Uncharted and PGR4 were also bombs so don't be so quick to dance on PC grave.

 

[Borys]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

:lol :lol :lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

This was posted in the NPD thread, but niceskybox.com has a deeper look at some of the title specific information (plus official NPD tie ratios) that were released over the weekend.

Kind of shady. It links to the NeoGAF thread but fails to mention that a lot of that information was compiled by separate NeoGAF posters. Attribution is very important :/

 

[speculawyer]

What?

Reggie: ...the amount of Wii hardware that will be in North American stores will be unprecedented—substantially more than the launch and substantially more than has been seen to date.

What exactly are you talking about?

Nintendo's George Harrison: "Normally we'd build up inventory over the summer when demand is slower," he said. "Instead, we ended up selling everything we could make this summer. As a result, we went into the holidays without any additional inventory."

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=215301

The original LA Times article with the quote.

Geez, anytime I say anything somewhat negative about a console, there is always a fanboy to accuse me of lying.

 

[Slavik81]

Obviously they were stockpiling, or they wouldn't have been able to go from 100K/week to 125K/week to 250K/week so suddenly. Given that they're stockpiling, what's the purpose? To make November and December increases more like regular November and December increases. And if that is the goal, why would they split shipments so December is barely an increase over November, which would be highly irregular? In fact, 1.1 million or lower would actually be a decrease of the weekly rate from November.

Or it was retailers who were stockpiling, since NPD tracks sell-through to consumers, not retailers. They need a certain number of units per store to be able to advertise in their fliers.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

You are annoying and wrong.

Crysis is a bomb nonetheless, can't spin those numbers. But Uncharted and PGR4 were also bombs so don't be so quick to dance on PC grave.

Yea but those are low profile games more or less sent to die, using them to point out that shit other than Crysis stinks is kinda silly.

 

[speculawyer]

Or it was retailers who were stockpiling, since NPD tracks sell-through to consumers, not retailers. They need a certain number of units per store to be able to advertise in their fliers.

They certainly do stockpile on a weekly basis . . . i.e. save up all the Wiis recieved during the week until Sunday.

However, I don't know if they stockpile on a monthly basis . . . it is possible but I doubt it.

 

[Borys]

Yea but those are low profile games more or less sent to die, using them to point out that shit other than Crysis stinks is kinda silly.

I dunno... everybody in the world knows PC games don't sell that well, even analysts predicted 60K for Crysis.

PC bombs <<< console bombs.

Console bombs hurt much more and are much more unexpected if you get what I am trying to say :/

 

[DayShallCome]

Kind of shady. It links to the NeoGAF thread but fails to mention that a lot of that information was compiled by separate NeoGAF posters. Attribution is very important :/

Good call, I never mean to not give credit. The stuff that JoshuaJStone puts together especially deserves a special mention. All fixed.

 

[DayShallCome]

Nintendo's George Harrison: "Normally we'd build up inventory over the summer when demand is slower," he said. "Instead, we ended up selling everything we could make this summer. As a result, we went into the holidays without any additional inventory."

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=215301

The original LA Times article with the quote.

Geez, anytime I say anything somewhat negative about a console, there is always a fanboy to accuse me of lying.

. No need to get your knickers in a knot, I was just pointing out a quote I had on hand.

So I wonder what the deal is... perhaps NOA usually stockpiles their usual allotment from Japan, but this time HQ in Kyoto was making the decision themselves?

 

[speculawyer]

. No need to get your knickers in a knot, I was just pointing out a quote I had on hand.

So I wonder what the deal is... perhaps NOA usually stockpiles their usual allotment from Japan, but this time HQ in Kyoto was making the decision themselves?

Nintendo certainly has greatly increased production and maybe some of that only came online recently. And yeah, perhaps the allotment moved from the Japanese allocation to the USA came over in one big shipment.

It will be interesting to see what NPD says for December . . . considering they are really downplaying availability and have the 'rain check' program, it does appear that they will be very short on supply.

 

[DayShallCome]

Nintendo certainly has greatly increased production and maybe some of that only came online recently. And yeah, perhaps the allotment moved from the Japanese allocation to the USA came over in one big shipment.

It will be interesting to see what NPD says for December . . . considering they are really downplaying availability and have the 'rain check' program, it does appear that they will be very short on supply.

Agreed, December should be great fun.

I think Pachter (or maybe N'Gai?) has Wii at ~1.5 million in December. I just don't possibly see how Nintendo can possibly have that many consoles to sell in the US.

 

[jvm]

Confirmed: RFOM LTD is 757k, as stated previous in the thread.

I will be submitting a corrected graph and text to Next-Gen.biz ASAP.

Thanks guys!

 

[PhatSaqs]

This was posted in the NPD thread, but niceskybox.com has a deeper look at some of the title specific information (plus official NPD tie ratios) that were released over the weekend.

Great analysis on next-gen. Very well done, I look forward to it every month.

From there it says 360 AC did 1.1 mil with the addition of 140K CEs sold. I said wow again. That's great for Ubi. I mean damn...

 

[speculawyer]

Confirmed: RFOM LTD is 757k, as stated previous in the thread.

I will be submitting a corrected graph and text to Next-Gen.biz ASAP.

Thanks guys!

GAF wins again.

GAF really can be a great tool . . . lots of knowledge here . . . and the GAF average predictions are the best forecasts available.

 

[Nutter]

From there it says 360 AC did 1.1 mil with the addition of 140K CEs sold. I said wow again. That's great for Ubi. I mean damn...

Weren't there rumors of how Ubi apparetly went back to the drawing board with the next Splinter Cell because of how Assasins's Creed was being reviewed? :lol :lol Something tells me Splinter Cell will go back to its original game plan now.

 

[beerbelly]

The Resistance number is US only right? It's bundled with the PS3 in a lot of European countries so it can't be world wide units.

 

[jstevenson]

No way those Resistance numbers are right kids...

I'm super busy with presentations and press... but I can tell you those numbers ain't true!

EDIT - looks like they realized that too...

 

[tanod]

No way those Resistance numbers are right kids...

I'm super busy with presentations and press... but I can tell you those numbers ain't true!

EDIT - looks like they realized that too...

Sales-Age has got your back.

 

[methane47]

No way those Resistance numbers are right kids...

I'm super busy with presentations and press... but I can tell you those numbers ain't true!

EDIT - looks like they realized that too...

Dont worry J.. we (GAF ) got your back... GAF wouldn't let the FUD spread too far...

I can't believe how happy some people got when they thought RFOM sold less than 500k....

WAYYY too much PS3 hate here..

 

[HK-47]

I dunno... everybody in the world knows PC games don't sell that well, even analysts predicted 60K for Crysis.

PC bombs <<< console bombs.

Console bombs hurt much more and are much more unexpected if you get what I am trying to say :/

Also the PC games market isnt like the console game market where titles are constantly pushed off shelves as new titles come in...PC games from 5 years ago can still be found in the PC section of stores like Target. Crysis will be around a long time, especially as more people get the hardware to run it. It also is prime material for graphic card pack ins.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Dont worry J.. we got your back... GAF wouldn't let the FUD spread too far...
I can't believe how happy some people got when they thought RFOM sold less than 500k....

WAYYY too much PS3 hate here..

Are you seriously accusing fvm of FUD? The data was supplied by NPD. I think it's clear that there was some kind of miscommunication, probably swapping YTD for LTD. It's an unfortunate error, but one that's being fixed. Relax.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Regarding GHIII on 360 not having as much leg as other platforms , there is a simple explanation for it (IMO). GHII for 360 came out almost 6 month ago. My kid loves GH series, he bought GHII and is not interested in buying GHIII right now. He wants rockband (spoiled kid, I know).

This fits me like a glove. I bought GH2 for 360 not too long ago, played the shit out of it and was super disappointed with the downloadable content. When GHIII came out, and made by a different developer I decided that I wanted something different so I bought Rock Band. To me that is the *real* GHIII since it was made by the GH2 team but this time with added instruments. Felt like more of a sequel then Activision's GHIII did which to me is pretty much GH 2.5

 

[RubberJohnny]

Very good analysis once again, I much appreciate the work even though I have little to add.