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November 2007 NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
ComputerNerd said:
I guess he uses "only" here because he wants to go on to say:
(360 AC sales)/(PS3 AC sales) < (360 installed base)/(PS3 installed base).
Poor choice of word. But I have an even bigger issue with article completely ignoring 360 users also bought a lot of exclusives.
pooteeweet
Banned
donny2112 said:Maybe in the NPD Canada - November 2007 thread?
Don't know how I missed that. We're still missing October and LTD, or did I overlook that too?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That is precisely my point. "Many games sell one million copies" is not a counterpoint to "Games drop off quickly". They're different measurements altogether.duk said:
pooteeweet
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
Something has to sell on 360 this month, if not COD4, then what? It's not like there were any major releases by any platform in December, I'm sure COD4 will do fine, and by fine I mean I'd be hard pressed to think of 10 titles that will outsell it.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
people are having trouble with hypotheticals this week
In general, I like this article a lot more than last month's.
jvm, I have criticisms and suggestion for next month's article, if you are interested in them:
1) When comparing PS3 and 360 sales, I think you should focus more on the fact that software sales are healthy on all platforms. Head-to-head comparisons only serve to insight conflict.
2) If you want to keep these types of comparisons then you may also want to look into comparing the PS3 to the 360 in 2006. It should help balance perspectives. For example, in November 06, the 360 had GoW at about 1 million, but then only 5 other games sold over 100k (4 of those being under 200k). The PS3 doesn't look so bad overall in that comparison, although 1st party comparisons will look worse.
3) Seeing how NPD has been combining SKU for the Top 10, might I suggest looking into the combined sales Pokemon and Nintendogs and other split titles. You comment that the PSP and DS have no titles in the Top 10, but I wonder if that would still be true if everything was equally combined.
4) I don't understand why you made this comment:
5) We need clarification about Assassin's Creeds total. If the 980k includes the Collector's Edition, then it is NOT the best selling new IP, despite what another annalist claims. Gears sold just over 1 million when you combine it regular version with the CE version in November '06.
jvm, I have criticisms and suggestion for next month's article, if you are interested in them:
1) When comparing PS3 and 360 sales, I think you should focus more on the fact that software sales are healthy on all platforms. Head-to-head comparisons only serve to insight conflict.
2) If you want to keep these types of comparisons then you may also want to look into comparing the PS3 to the 360 in 2006. It should help balance perspectives. For example, in November 06, the 360 had GoW at about 1 million, but then only 5 other games sold over 100k (4 of those being under 200k). The PS3 doesn't look so bad overall in that comparison, although 1st party comparisons will look worse.
3) Seeing how NPD has been combining SKU for the Top 10, might I suggest looking into the combined sales Pokemon and Nintendogs and other split titles. You comment that the PSP and DS have no titles in the Top 10, but I wonder if that would still be true if everything was equally combined.
4) I don't understand why you made this comment:
SMG has already outsold the first several months of SMS. There is no pattern to track, no footsteps to follow. If there were, then we should expect SMG to sell 11 million lifetime in the US.
5) We need clarification about Assassin's Creeds total. If the 980k includes the Collector's Edition, then it is NOT the best selling new IP, despite what another annalist claims. Gears sold just over 1 million when you combine it regular version with the CE version in November '06.
The statistic itself is also unverifiable and the method used to reach that number does not consider actual sales. You could have just left it at, "Irrelevant in a discussion."JoshuaJSlone said:
Thanks...and...yes! I was just thinking this morning that I need to revisit this thread before I start writing again in January 2008.JJConrad said:
I read over your comments, and will take them to heart.
On split titles, I don't think Pokemon Pearl/Diamond would have made the top 10 this month even if we add them together. If your comment about top 10 was referring to YTD, then perhaps I wasn't clear in my verbiage in the article.
As for SMG, my intent there was to say simply that the game might have legs, as SMS stayed in the top 10 for 4 of its first 5 months (or something along those lines, going from memory).
Perhaps I should have drawn an analogy to more recent software. With a game like Halo 3 continuing to define the Xbox 360 owner's library (52% attach rate, holy cow) and Wii Play appearing to do the same for the Wii (50% attach rate), it seems plausible to me that SMG will do the same. With sales of 500,000 systems a month, if even 1/5 of those people pick up SMG, then Nintendo will see a minimum of 100,000 units of SMG every month. That's significant enough to keep it near ... if not in ... the top 10.
On the subject of AC, the best-selling new IP comment refers to Xbox 360 + PS3. This was behind my comments that cross-platform sales are what pushed AC ahead of Gears.
If we restrict to single-platform new IP launch, then Gears still wins, I believe.
Thanks again.
jvm said:
I hope Super Mario Galaxy stays in the Top 10 longer than Super Mario Sunshine. Sunshine was in the Top 10 for August and September 2002 and never again thereafter.
NPD's website used to have an archive section where they listed historical Top 10s without numbers, but I can't find it at the moment. It's possible they took it offline.
I think it made a return (at least to the top 20) in November and December. Maybe I'm wrong. I archived the lists on my other computer, and don't have them at the moment.donny2112 said:I hope Super Mario Galaxy stays in the Top 10 longer than Super Mario Sunshine. Sunshine was in the Top 10 for August and September 2002 and never again thereafter.
Moreover, GameDaily used to have a very nice set of lists for months going back to 2002 or 2003 and when they redesigned it disappeared. I need to email them and ask if the data was destroyed, and if they could send it to me...
jvm said:
It made it into the Top 20 in October and November, but I don't think it even made it back to a Top 20 list again in its lifetime.
jvm said:
GameSpot has older monthly articles, as well.
Jokeropia said:
A little less than that, but the point still remains. I really wish NPD had something like Famitsu where you could pay a few hundred dollars in August for a book that listed the Top 500/1000 with LTDs for the previous year.
_leech_ said:
Yeah. I mean its a crap number for sure, but I have a feeling that WW numbers will be much higher since people seem to buy more PC games than they do in the US. And what else is there for fast over the top DM action? And the hyperbole that nobody cares about UT and never have is really out of touch with the PC community. Will people still be playing COD4 dunno - but people are still playing original UT and Quake Arena even today.