Support NeoGAF

[speculawyer]

This fits me like a glove. I bought GH2 for 360 not too long ago, played the shit out of it and was super disappointed with the downloadable content. When GHIII came out, and made by a different developer I decided that I wanted something different so I bought Rock Band. To me that is the *real* GHIII since it was made by the GH2 team but this time with added instruments. Felt like more of a sequel then Activision's GHIII did which to me is pretty much GH 2.5

The 360 is crowd is also a flash mob . . . big games have HUGE first months but drop off relatively quickly. Upon release GH3 was biggest on the 360 but then dropped off. Only a few games have long legs such as Halo 3.

 

[Zerachiel]

Ah well...only human, and all that. Do tell, though. Honest self-assessment without external observation is difficult.

FWIW, I couldn't see any bias in the analysis.

 

[methane47]

Are you seriously accusing fvm of FUD? The data was supplied by NPD. I think it's clear that there was some kind of miscommunication, probably swapping YTD for LTD. It's an unfortunate error, but one that's being fixed. Relax.

No.. It totally understandable that JVM made a mistake or that communication went bad..
But if GAF did NOT step in here... this would have gotten to Kotaku, Joystuq, etc and the damage would never be repaired as we both now they wouldn't do retractions or correct the mistake in anyway.... And The FUD spread from sony haters would just run free...

ESPECIALLY with people like this... who probably already posted this JOYOUS news on 10 boards...

Resistance 500,000

:lol
Didn't this forum keep preaching about Resistance having sales of around 2,000,000?
Bu Bu But Sony didn't advertise it properly.
Better have a recount.
:lol

so Rat... do you practice when you are alone at night? or does douchebaggery come natural?

 

[jvm]

Dont worry J.. we got your back... GAF wouldn't let the FUD spread too far...

I dont think that word (FUD) means what you think it means.

NPD gave me a number that they clearly labeled "LTD". I used that datum. Sales-Age noticed it was in error. I asked for confirmation from NPD. NPD corrected. I sent a new graph and updated text to Next-Gen.biz. And the article has now been updated online.

FUD? Wow. Just...wow. :^)

 

[methane47]

I dont think that word (FUD) means what you think it means.

NPD gave me a number that they clearly labeled "LTD". I used that datum. Sales-Age noticed it was in error. I asked for confirmation from NPD. NPD corrected. I sent a new graph and updated text to Next-Gen.biz. And the article has now been updated online.

FUD? Wow. Just...wow. :^)

look at post above yours...

FUD is generally a strategic attempt to influence public perception by disseminating negative (and vague) information.
The term originated to describe disinformation tactics in the computer hardware industry

E.G. - "Ohhh Sony Lied... Resistance didn't really do as well as they said it did... Dont trust that company" - You dont think that joystuq couldn't turn this misinformation into FUD?

 

[GhaleonEB]

look at post above yours...

That still does not make it FUD - which requires intent - it makes it an unfortunate error. One that's now fixed. Nothing more.

 

[The Innocent X]

The 360 is crowd is also a flash mob . . . big games have HUGE first months but drop off relatively quickly. Upon release GH3 was biggest on the 360 but then dropped off. Only a few games have long legs such as Halo 3.

Only 360K second month? Terrible.

Also the small matter of the directly competing rock band coming out.

 

[NG_Kris]

I dont think that word (FUD) means what you think it means.

NPD gave me a number that they clearly labeled "LTD". I used that datum. Sales-Age noticed it was in error. I asked for confirmation from NPD. NPD corrected. I sent a new graph and updated text to Next-Gen.biz. And the article has now been updated online.

FUD? Wow. Just...wow. :^)

Mr. Matthews will be whipped with a cane in accordance with Next-Gen's policy regarding freelance writers. But I think he kind of likes it... *shudder*

 

[squicken]

Dont worry J.. we got your back... GAF wouldn't let the FUD spread too far...

FUD? jvm was given wrong numbers by NPD. Who do you think was spreading Resistance FUD? NPD?

Anyway, great read jvm. I know it is a source of contention on GAF, but I also consider Wii Play a hardware sale and not a software sale.

edit: beaten re: methane's shenanigans

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I like the part where Methane rolls in acting like he had anything to do with correcting the numbers.

 

[jvm]

Mr. Matthews will be whipped with a cane in accordance with Next-Gen's policy regarding freelance writers. But I think he kind of likes it... *shudder*

Caning? Again? Sweeeeeet.

I think I'll spread FUD more often...

 

[Raw64life]

This was posted in the NPD thread, but niceskybox.com has a deeper look at some of the title specific information (plus official NPD tie ratios) that were released over the weekend.

Great analysis on next-gen. Very well done, I look forward to it every month.

Yea, it's basically a recap of the GAF thread.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=8953508#post8953508

 

[mr_bishiuk]

The 360 is crowd is also a flash mob . . . big games have HUGE first months but drop off relatively quickly. Upon release GH3 was biggest on the 360 but then dropped off. Only a few games have long legs such as Halo 3.

I dont see how the 360 is any different to either of the other consoles, the only games that have real legs (staying in the chart) are AAA+ games like Halo 3 and SMG (will have) and games that get bundled with consoles.

Just because the 36o top 10 always shows more recent titles is simply because it is benefiting from having more games available for it. That fact doesn't necessarily mean older titles like Gears of War, Oblivion, Dead Rising, Crackdown etc aren't picking up sales.

 

[methane47]

I like the part where Methane rolls in acting like he had anything to do with correcting the numbers.

KILL METHANE!!!
:lol
For saying GAF wouldn't let wrong numbers get past

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

KILL METHANE!!!

For saying GAF wouldn't let wrong numbers get past

SIC SEMPER METHANE

 

[beerbelly]

:lol Methane hiding when those numbers were first shown then running out screaming for justice as soon as Insomniac hints that it's wrong.

 

[DayShallCome]

Raw, your post was specifically linked to, but your name has been added.

 

[reilo]

i am not feeling it will sell alot of systems. the game should sell well. and it will give a slight bump to ps3 sales. but its to niche in essence to be a true system seller. its like any racing game. I can't wait to buy the game but i already own a ps3. Infact no ps3 game to me was worth buying a ps3 for yet. like alot of people i was a bluray sell.

FFXIII, killzone these games will sell systems. those are the 2 big games sony needs to get out.

Next GOW III also needs to come out. the decision to put gow II on ps2 was the dumbest move of next gen.

Wat.

GT3 was the system seller last generation. It sold 7mil in the US alone [including pack-ins, but still].

 

[HocusPocus]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

So true.

 

[greepoman]

Uncharted / Heavenly Sword / Ratchet and Clank F:ToD / Lair / Virtua Fighter 5 / Hot Shots Golf 5 JPN / Assassin's Creed / MotorStorm were never going to be system sellers. No one ever thought that.

Wait until the real system seller: DMC4 / MGS4 / Infamous / Prototype / Heavy Rain / FFXIII / Afrika / Little Big Planet*

* Subject to change if any one of these does not materialize as a system seller

LOL, nice.

Kind of funny you mentioned Afrika...I totally forgot about it since they first showed it at like E3 2006. Pretty hilarious people were getting exciting about this...especially when it looks like it's going to be a 'photography' game.

 

[HK-47]

LOL, nice.

Kind of funny you mentioned Afrika...I totally forgot about it since they first showed it at like E3 2006. Pretty hilarious people were getting exciting about this...especially when it looks like it's going to be a 'photography' game.

Ever heard of Pokemon Snap? Yeah, it was awesome

 

[FF_VIII]

Only 360K second month? Terrible.

Sarcasm?

 

[methane47]

:lol Methane hiding when those numbers were first shown then running out screaming for justice as soon as Insomniac hints that it's wrong.

:lol
How you gonna out me like that!

 

[donny2112]

When you think about the 25% increase due to the 5-week month as well as the typical 2x November boost that happens. It's weird to think that PS3 may sell upwards of a million consoles in December.

It is very important to keep in mind that, due to the extra week in January, direct comparison of this year's Nov/Dec to 2006's is problematic.

Days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, not including Thanksgiving or Christmas:

Nov-06: 2
Nov-07: 9

Dec-06: 29
Dec-07: 23

In short, November 2007 has a larger chunk of the pre-Christmas spending than November 2006, and, thus, December 2007 will have a smaller chunk compared to December 2006. Therefore, the expectation should be for a smaller jump between November and December than we've seen the last few years.

But that said, the xbox 360 is where the money is for 3rd party developers.

Money in sales and money for development.

This was posted in the NPD thread, but niceskybox.com has a deeper look at some of the title specific information (plus official NPD tie ratios) that were released over the weekend.

That's your blog, right? I don't think you should specify the software and hardware numbers to the level of precision that you do. "Significant digits"

From there it says 360 AC did 1.1 mil with the addition of 140K CEs sold.

That would be incorrect. The 980K included all editions of the game.



As a factor in the 360's flat sales for Guitar Hero III in November, Rock Band should be considered. Rock Band is heavily geared toward online co-op play. Whereas you may find someone playing the game with all the band members in one room, the more likely situation is that the band will meet up online. With Live being so prevalent with 360 owners, I feel this draw could've negatively impacted Guitar Hero III's second month on 360. PS3 also had Rock Band, but PS3's online draw is not as out-front as the 360's. Also, as your graph showed, a greater ratio of 360 owners bought Rock Band than PS3 owners, so the impact on the 360 would've been greater.

Nice analysis, as usual.

 

[theguy]

I dont think that word (FUD) means what you think it means.

NPD gave me a number that they clearly labeled "LTD". I used that datum. Sales-Age noticed it was in error. I asked for confirmation from NPD. NPD corrected. I sent a new graph and updated text to Next-Gen.biz. And the article has now been updated online.

FUD? Wow. Just...wow. :^)

NPD provided an incorrect figure, was quick to correct the problem and apologized for misleading anyone in the community, so FUD anyone choosing to dwell on it.

 

[donny2112]

NPD provided an incorrect figure, was quick to correct the problem and apologized for misleading anyone in the community, so FUD anyone choosing to dwell on it.

:lol

 

[Beer Monkey]

The 360 is crowd is also a flash mob . . . big games have HUGE first months but drop off relatively quickly. Upon release GH3 was biggest on the 360 but then dropped off. Only a few games have long legs such as Halo 3.

360 GH III is supply-constrained in many areas for weeks now.

 

[beerbelly]

:lol
How you gonna out me like that!

I'm just playing. Nothing personal ;-)

 

[pooteeweet]

NPD provided an incorrect figure, was quick to correct the problem and apologized for misleading anyone in the community, so FUD anyone choosing to dwell on it.

OT, but you promised in the NPD thread that you're be getting Canada NPD data to SC. Is that still happening?

 

[909er]

That would be incorrect. The 980K included all editions of the game.



As a factor in the 360's flat sales for Guitar Hero III in November, Rock Band should be considered. Rock Band is heavily geared toward online co-op play. Whereas you may find someone playing the game with all the band members in one room, the more likely situation is that the band will meet up online. With Live being so prevalent with 360 owners, I feel this draw could've negatively impacted Guitar Hero III's second month on 360. PS3 also had Rock Band, but PS3's online draw is not as out-front as the 360's. Also, as your graph showed, a greater ratio of 360 owners bought Rock Band than PS3 owners, so the impact on the 360 would've been greater.

Nice analysis, as usual.

Just a quick question. Is it possible that the GH3 360 sales are influenced by supply? I noticed it was going for $170 on Amazon last week, and even now it's above the MSRP at $125. On Ebay, the price range goes all the way up to $1000. I'm not sure what the supply is like at stores, but the prices online would suggest it's in a similar supply situation as the Wii version.

As Assassins Creed, NPD usually doesn't add up the regular and CE version of games. In September, there was 3 listings in the top 10 for the 3 versions of Halo 3.

 

[tanod]

360 GH III is supply-constrained in many areas for weeks now.

GH3 on everything is supply constrained. As is Rock Band, PS3 in particular.

EDIT: It's really up to EA and Activision which platforms they want to sell it on this year. Just heard this but according to the PS3 IGN podcast this week, the PS2 hardware for Rock Band is the same as the PS3 hardware. That would be the reason for a potential PS3 shortage.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

GH3 on everything is supply constrained. As is Rock Band, PS3 in particular.

EDIT: It's really up to EA and Activision which platforms they want to sell it on this year. Just heard this but according to the PS3 IGN podcast this week, the PS2 hardware for Rock Band is the same as the PS3 hardware. That would be the reason for a potential PS3 shortage.

What? PS3 Rock Band is all anybody can find. It's the 360 version that nobody can come across.

 

[shintoki]

look at post above yours...



E.G. - "Ohhh Sony Lied... Resistance didn't really do as well as they said it did... Dont trust that company" - You dont think that joystuq couldn't turn this misinformation into FUD?

You are really taking this awful seriously. It was just a mistaken. Sony Stocks are still up for the day. No harm was done.

Anyways, The Guitar Hero 360 had competition now from Rock Band. And didn't it decrease by only 4% if I remember the article said? Doesn't that still like tally 330k or something like that. I forgot how much it sold. I don't think it is the flash in the pan type mentality. Just so many games sold good this month is all.

 

[tanod]

What? PS3 Rock Band is all anybody can find. It's the 360 version that nobody can come across.

Outside of the day it launched, I haven't seen a single box of either version anywhere.

 

[theguy]

OT, but you promised in the NPD thread that you're be getting Canada NPD data to SC. Is that still happening?

Nov data, right?

 

[pooteeweet]

Nov data, right?

Nov. data would be great. I don't want to get greedy or anything, but we never got October data either. . . just sayin'

 

[donny2112]

As Assassins Creed, NPD usually doesn't add up the regular and CE version of games. In September, there was 3 listings in the top 10 for the 3 versions of Halo 3.

Not in the one they released to the press.

Nov data, right?

LTD. You said you just needed to format it.

Nov. data would be great. I don't want to get greedy or anything, but we never got October data either. . . just sayin'

November Canadian data has already been released.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8931937&postcount=311

Where's that Canadian NPD HW LTD's you said you'd try to find for us?

I'll get them to SC soon, I just need to format them and, dammit, I'm exhausted.

 

[pooteeweet]

November Canadian data has already been released.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8931937&postcount=311

I haven't seen Oct. or Nov. Canadian NPD. Where is it?

 

[duk]

The 360 is crowd is also a flash mob . . . big games have HUGE first months but drop off relatively quickly. Upon release GH3 was biggest on the 360 but then dropped off. Only a few games have long legs such as Halo 3.

So quickly that 30 games and counting are over 1m sold in just 2 years.

 

[Oblivion]

Wait, Resistance sold over 700k? Didn't it sell under 100k for several months since launch?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Even with Japan's propensity to buy stuff we wouldn't pay money for, GT4P was still a substantially lower seller than GT4. Like, an order of magnitude less copies sold.

"An order of magnitude" is a bit of an exaggeration. Using J-GC,
Gran Turismo 4 Prologue: 747,692
Gran Turismo 4: 1,066,749

Prologue was also a lot cheaper, though. Looks like their launch prices in yen were 2980 and 7665, respectively.

Or it was retailers who were stockpiling, since NPD tracks sell-through to consumers, not retailers. They need a certain number of units per store to be able to advertise in their fliers.

Are you suggesting retailers were stockpiling hundreds of thousands of units in October or earlier and holding them until November?

I think Pachter (or maybe N'Gai?) has Wii at ~1.5 million in December. I just don't possibly see how Nintendo can possibly have that many consoles to sell in the US.

Why not?

So quickly that 30 games and counting are over 1m sold in just 2 years.

Irrelevant in a discussion about frontloadedness. Call of Duty 4 for X360 could drop off the face of the Earth this month and be on both the "drop off releatively quickly" and "over 1m sold" lists.

 

[dammitmattt]

Irrelevant in a discussion about frontloadedness. Call of Duty 4 for X360 could drop off the face of the Earth this month and be on both the "drop off releatively quickly" and "over 1m sold" lists.

Yeah, but we all know that COD4 isn't going to drop off the face of the earth. The leaderboards are already at least 1.5 million (no exact numbers on hand) and we all know that a certain segment of the 360 community doesn't get online. Going by the Simexchange, the estimates are around 850-900k, which is in line with the legs that were originally shown by COD2 (let's forget that COD3 even existed).

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Irrelevant in a discussion about frontloadedness. Call of Duty 4 for X360 could drop off the face of the Earth this month and be on both the "drop off releatively quickly" and "over 1m sold" lists.

Except, there weren't any 360 releases in December except for DDRU 2. :lol

Gears, GH2, COD3, and COD2 all sold well more than half of their LTD in the months after their first NPD chart appearance. Looking at the PAL charts, COD and AC have had better legs than Gears despite having even bigger openings, so it's doubtful that they won't be #1 and #2 on the 360 charts again when December NPD shows up.

AC, ME, GH3, Halo 3, Rock Band, and COD4 should all have big Decembers for the 360.

 

[Oblivion]

I don't think Josh was saying it WILL drop completely this month.

 

[donny2112]

I haven't seen Oct. or Nov. Canadian NPD. Where is it?

Maybe in the NPD Canada - November 2007 thread?

 

[Stumpokapow]

"An order of magnitude" is a bit of an exaggeration. Using J-GC,
Gran Turismo 4 Prologue: 747,692
Gran Turismo 4: 1,066,749

Yeah, looks like I really over-exaggerated that one. My mind was thinking 400k/2mln. It's weird, because I normally check a reliable source before I shoot my trap about Japanese numbers.

Still I think it's fair to say that based on those launch prices, if GT5p is priced higher (say 4000+ yen) it would have been less of a success.

 

[Mooreberg]

UT3 on PC is supposingly THE biggest bomb in PC FPS history.

It has the worst timing of release date I've ever seen. Everyone is playing TF2 and COD4, and if you're a console gamer you're probably playing Halo 3 and COD4. It's like Sega is secretly the game's publisher.

 

[Zombie James]

It has the worst timing of release date I've ever seen. Everyone is playing TF2 and COD4, and if you're a console gamer you're probably playing Halo 3 and COD4. It's like Sega is secretly the game's publisher.

The mod community is going to give it legs for years.

 

[ComputerNerd]

I found this wording funny:

Only 987,000 copies of Assassin's Creed were sold on the Xbox 360, and the additional 377,000 copies on the PlayStation 3

ONLY?

 

[AniHawk]

I found this wording funny:



ONLY?

And, actually, I don't think that includes the LEs sold.