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NPD August 2012 Sales Results [Up3: Sleeping Dogs]

Tobor

Member
So let the Vita become irrelevant for one year until they can drop the price without losing money for each one or loss lots of money to give the Vita a chance to be successful?

Pretty fucked up.

Exactly. They also have to pray that retail doesn't pull the plug in the meantime.
 
IMHO, people will either grow tired of the Angry Bird derivative games, or crave something more "meaty" to play. Graduate or drop out. I believe you are seeing a false expansion of mobile games, because a lot of people are still migrating to smartphones, from feature phones. The question I ask though is:What is the retention rate here?

This is hugely important. These markets are still expanding; iOS is being drawn along by hardware sales, but unlike consoles the upgrades are not so much seen in games. This we know is a problem in the games market.

It doesn't mean iOS isn't a big player though. But it will become more competitive in time.
Tablets are problematic because people aren't going to upgrade every year like the market wants, their still selling to new customers atm and thats the main drive in sales.

We just don't know how this industry will look in 5 years, it changes too rapidly. Personally I think the tech drive will begin to calm in a few years - the reason for it just now is because suddenly everyone found something consumers wanted.
 

liger05

Member
I don't believe that the Vita's problems have anything to do with its price. For sector of the gaming market it's targeting the price is reasonable but Sony just badly botched the launch of the device to the point that I'm not certain it can recover. I still can't believe that their entire software strategy so far has been pretty much based on the Vita being a portable HD console. Am I the only one who sees the problem with that?

The 3DS on the other hand has a big price problem. It's just too expensive the mass market games Nintendo produces and I'm still not sure why they thought releasing an even more expensive revision for the device would help things. They need to focus as much resources as they can towards bringing the price of both the 3DS and XL down to below the $129 price point. In fact, I really don't think that they should ever consider releasing another handheld for more that $149 at launch.

Sony are targeting the wrong people. For them to think they should just look at attracting 18+ was dumb!!!

The price is a problem. If it wasnt the sales would be low but not this bad. The vita is irrelevant even to the target market they were looking at attracting.
 

DEADEVIL

Member
Are you being intentionally obtuse? Sleeping Dogs was 2nd/3rd (week 33), 1st/4th (week 34) and 2nd/4th (last week) in the UK and was dropping much slower in sales than normal (15% to 38% drops). It absolutely was a hit in the UK and not in the USA. For a game to sell roughly the same in two markets that are so disparate in sales and revenue shows this.

Where do these numbers exists, in your mind. Wheres a link that shows this massive number that outsell the states
 
This is hugely important. These markets are still expanding; iOS is being drawn along by hardware sales, but unlike consoles the upgrades are not so much seen in games. This we know is a problem in the games market.

It doesn't mean iOS isn't a big player though. But it will become more competitive in time.
Tablets are problematic because people aren't going to upgrade every year like the market wants, their still selling to new customers atm and thats the main drive in sales.

We just don't know how this industry will look in 5 years, it changes too rapidly. Personally I think the tech drive will begin to calm in a few years - the reason for it just now is because suddenly everyone found something consumers wanted.

Exactly. We have witnessed a huge explosion/evolution in mobile technology, and at the moment the ios platform and game model is great. I have to believe that when the smartphones reach a certain saturation point we will see a cooling of potential profitability.

IMHO we can already see some signs of this now, the major publishers are the ones that are constantly striking gold/high rankings in the app store for paid content. Crazy success stories like angry birds will be harder to see in the future as the sheer number of apps released crushes the smaller guys.

More problematic as you touched upon, the actual games themselves haven't evolved stylistically since the launch of ios. The games that do offer deeper experiences, are ultimately priced higher and then are limited by control issues.

There is only so many Infinity Blade type games a core gamer is going to want to play, no matter how high the production values are. In time the limits of the touch only nature of phones/slates will hamper game design.. when this happens I feel that if Sony or Nintendo can have a competitive ecosystem built up, better quality & quantity games ready at a $129 price point they can capitalize on that.

Nintendo is criticized for being extremely slow to adapt to the times.. but at least they are adapting and made the painful decision to cut the price. Since that time, every promise they have made (except Hulu) has been kept. I do not know how successful Miiverse will be, but at least they are steadily moving in the direction to integrate modern social features, changing their digital strategy, offering patches and DLC.. and most importantly talking to the end consumer via Nintendo Directs. Will this work? Time will tell, but remember they have Mario, and Pokemon to hold them over until they can get the rest of the pieces together.
 
At worst it's going to be a N64/Gamecube affair and that's not "dead".
People tend not to realize due to the worldwide figures but N64 was a very decent success in the US, outselling Xbox and Sega Genesis here and even almost matching Super NES. If not for it's longer cycle, N64 would have outsold PS3 too.

Where N64 fell down was other markets, gaining zero traction in Europe and totally collapsing in Japan. The Japanese developer exodus led by FFVII and initiated by sticking with mask ROM was fatal.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
People tend not to realize due to the worldwide figures but N64 was a very decent success in the US, outselling Xbox and Sega Genesis here and even almost matching Super NES. If not for it's longer cycle, N64 would have outsold PS3 too.

Where N64 fell down was other markets, gaining zero traction in Europe and totally collapsing in Japan. The Japanese developer exodus led by FFVII and initiated by sticking with mask ROM was fatal.

Yes, it'd be truth. Still, I think in 7 years 3DS can do 35+ millions in US, it has the possibilities.
 

carlos

Member
So yeah, about that 4 million for a sequel to be considered...

Man, that 4 million number really stuck in peoples mind....it's been debunked numerous times, misquote, etc.

I believe they can get to 2 million, but for a sequel they would ask for more than that, IMO (not as much as 4 mill)
 
The Apple conference on the 12th will be devastating for both handhelds and consoles. Iphone 5 and mini Ipad will compete to get consumers money from handhelds and consoles. Money is little and the hip devices right now are smart phones and tablets. The Galaxy 3 did 20000000 in a 100 days which is amazing.
 

DEADEVIL

Member
Check the PAL chart thread for week 35. Going off 110k sales in week 33 you can extrapolate the sales for subsequent weeks (using the drop percentages) to make a number "roughly the same" as the USA as I stated.

This is from YOUR thread thatyour basing this off

1st Week: 52.587 360 - 30.500 (58%) PS3 - 21.035 (40%)
2nd Week: 44.700 (-15%) 360 - 26.373 (59%) PS3 - 17.433 (39%)
3rd Week: 27.713 (-38%) 360 - 16.905 (61%) PS3 - 10.531 (38%)

Again proving what I said before the game did about the same in both regions.

The overhyping of the It's a flop in one region and a megahit in the other simply does not exist in this case.
 
Yes, it'd be truth. Still, I think in 7 years 3DS can do 35+ millions in US, it has the possibilities.

Keep dreaming. If MK7 did not sustain the hardware sales, and NSMB pushed so little hardware in the US, then there´s no way the 3DS will reach 35 million. It might not even reach 20 million. 7 years is a long time for technology. There´s no way the 3DS will last 7 years. It might not last 5 years.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Keep dreaming. If MK7 did not sustain the hardware sales, and NSMB pushed so little hardware in the US, then there´s no way the 3DS will reach 35 million. It might not even reach 20 million. 7 years is a long time for technology. There´s no way the 3DS will last 7 years. It might not last 5 years.

First week. You'd prefer to wait next months for saying this, believe me.
 

Mario007

Member
Could Sleeping Dog's failure be alluded to the fact that it's actually an Asian protagonist in an Asian city and there's very little guns in the game?

I don't mean to sound pretentious but I can easily imagine the american public being dissuaded from buying the game because of these (trivial) reasons. When you compare it to the UK and Europe as a whole, the difference is quite jarring actually. I mean in the UK, for example, D2 debuted a week after SD and it had less units sold than SD in its second week.
 
Yeah just cancel it especially that TGS is right around the corner, also christmas, that makes a lot of sense.
Oh yes. The flood gates will open! Just you wait.

Stop deluding yourself. The device isn't going to catch. Sony should throw their weight where they excell-the home console market.
 

Dynoro

Member
This is from YOUR thread thatyour basing this off

1st Week: 52.587 360 - 30.500 (58%) PS3 - 21.035 (40%)
2nd Week: 44.700 (-15%) 360 - 26.373 (59%) PS3 - 17.433 (39%)
3rd Week: 27.713 (-38%) 360 - 16.905 (61%) PS3 - 10.531 (38%)

Again proving what I said before the game did about the same in both regions.

The overhyping of the It's a flop in one region and a megahit in the other simply does not exist in this case.

Yes; the sales are roughly equal in both regions (as I said as well) but because the USA games market is substantially larger than the UK so Sleeping Dogs did disproportionally better in the UK or disproportionally worse in the USA comparatively speaking.

The US market was worth 21.6bn USD in 2011
The UK market was worth 3.2bn GBP in the same year

The game sold approximately the same in one market what it did in a market a quarter the size in a similar time period. If it sold okay in the US it was absolutely a hit in the UK. Conversely if it sold okay in the UK it was a flop in the US.
 
Keep dreaming. If MK7 did not sustain the hardware sales, and NSMB pushed so little hardware in the US, then there´s no way the 3DS will reach 35 million. It might not even reach 20 million. 7 years is a long time for technology. There´s no way the 3DS will last 7 years. It might not last 5 years.
Mario Kart 7 is about a million ahead of Mario Kart DS launch alingned. In fact, pretty much all the big 3DS games are matching or exceeding sales of their DS predecessors in the US and the platform at large is still well ahead of DS launch alinged in hardware. Nothing about mpl's 35m/7yr target is really outlandish given the current performance, it might be a little bullish but it's not unrealistic.

Dream on though. :)
 
Could Sleeping Dog's failure be alluded to the fact that it's actually an Asian protagonist in an Asian city and there's very little guns in the game?

I don't mean to sound pretentious but I can easily imagine the american public being dissuaded from buying the game because of these (trivial) reasons. When you compare it to the UK and Europe as a whole, the difference is quite jarring actually. I mean in the UK, for example, D2 debuted a week after SD and it had less units sold than SD in its second week.
Have minority protagonists kept the GTA games from selling or are you saying the American public is just way more racist against Asians than blacks and/or xenophobic about Asian settings like Hong Kong?
 
Sony are targeting the wrong people. For them to think they should just look at attracting 18+ was dumb!!!

The price is a problem. If it wasnt the sales would be low but not this bad. The vita is irrelevant even to the target market they were looking at attracting.

Jep, the biggest problem for the Vita is that the target audience isn't interested in it and it was launched a year too late.

I'd agree but who is Sony supposed to target at this point? They've been trying for years to build a family friendly presence without much success so trying to compete with Nintendo for that market wouldn't make sense.

The only other option would have been to use Microsoft's strategy with Kinect and undercut Nintendo with even simpler experiences but smartphone and tablets now have that market on lock.

They aimed at the right market but where they failed so far is that they haven't come up with a good strategy to convince that market that they need a Vita.
 
The Apple conference on the 12th will be devastating for both handhelds and consoles. Iphone 5 and mini Ipad will compete to get consumers money from handhelds and consoles. Money is little and the hip devices right now are smart phones and tablets. The Galaxy 3 did 20000000 in a 100 days which is amazing.

Okay...people need to start taking the hard logic they put on dedicated handhelds and put them on other systems too.

Iphone 5 will just compete with other smart phones and upgrades from 4-5 - it won't have any increased effect on the handheld games market than general smart phone growth. Its unimportant, iphone is already affecting things.

mini Ipad will maybe have some effect...but also on apple goods. People will decide which Apple good they want. Iphone owners will not get it but go for an Ipad (too similar) whilst Ipad owners won't both either. New customers coming in will look at the different devices and weight up their option.

The ipad mini will mostly sell to people who own another smart phone than iphone and want that same interface/experience/brand in some form or another.


In the end its more competition within the tablet market, I don't see how it suddenly changes the handheld market. In the end ipod touch has been out for years.

Its not going to increase any effect on the 3DS and thinking it will is misunderstanding the market. If iPad mini is a success, it'll affect the sales of other Apple devices but likely will bring in some new customers but those are customers who'd chose other devices anyway.


Its not a big shift in the market in any sense; but very internal.
EDITED to add: It may actually see some upgraders from ipad to mini, wishing for a smaller size. I was in Berlin last week, tourists taking photos with an ipad is the most idiotic thing I think I've ever seen. I think they believe the entire back side is a camera - rude too as they block the view :(
 

Mario007

Member
Have minority protagonists kept the GTA games from selling or are you saying the American public is just way more racist against Asians than blacks and/or xenophobic about Asian settings like Hong Kong?

Wouldn't say xenophobic but unfamiliar and uncomfortable with a different than American setting.
 
Could Sleeping Dog's failure be alluded to the fact that it's actually an Asian protagonist in an Asian city and there's very little guns in the game?

I don't mean to sound pretentious but I can easily imagine the american public being dissuaded from buying the game because of these (trivial) reasons. When you compare it to the UK and Europe as a whole, the difference is quite jarring actually. I mean in the UK, for example, D2 debuted a week after SD and it had less units sold than SD in its second week.

I don't think some of those words mean what you think they do.

Going by the OP the NPD numbers for SD apparently don't include PC (unlike other releases), and its "failure" is kinda relative given everything else on that list basically "failed". So, no, I don't think the content is a reason for the sales. Personally I would point to (what I perceived as) weak advertising (which I don't recall focusing on HK; really I think it should have focused more on that and pushed the GTA angle rather than coming across like a beat-em-up) and hard-to-sell cover art coupled with general market malaise.
Wouldn't say xenophobic but unfamiliar and uncomfortable with a different than American setting.
I'm only a few hours in but so far very little of the setting would be unfamiliar to an American familiar with GTA/Saints Row or any number of crime movies/TV set in a large city.
 
I dont think the new apple products will do any more damage but the cheap kindle fire is a huge game changer. Just think mentally for parents buying gifts
 

Opiate

Member
So let the Vita become irrelevant for one year until they can drop the price without losing money for each one or loss lots of money to give the Vita a chance to be successful?

Pretty fucked up.

This is the dilemma for virtually all manufacturers of every product ever made. Is it worth it to lose money to gain marketshare?

Sony has in the past decided that yes, it is, but their well of reserves is gradually running dry.
 

CaptainABAB

Member
In the end its more competition within the tablet market, I don't see how it suddenly changes the handheld market. In the end ipod touch has been out for years.

Its not going to increase any effect on the 3DS and thinking it will is misunderstanding the market. If iPad mini is a success, it'll affect the sales of other Apple devices but likely will bring in some new customers but those are customers who'd chose other devices anyway.

iPad and similar will be on the top of many xmas lists, taking money that might have been used on handhelds.

Tablets have plenty of room for growth - the market isn't anywhere close to being saturated yet.
 

Mario007

Member
I don't think some of those words mean what you think they do.

Going by the OP the NPD numbers for SD apparently don't include PC (unlike other releases), and its "failure" is kinda relative given everything else on that list basically "failed". So, no, I don't think the content is a reason for the sales. Personally I would point to (what I perceived as) weak advertising (which I don't recall focusing on HK; really I think it should have focused more on that and pushed the GTA angle rather than coming across like a beat-em-up) and hard-to-sell cover art coupled with general market malaise.

I'm only a few hours in but so far very little of the setting would be unfamiliar to an American familiar with GTA/Saints Row or any number of crime movies/TV set in a large city.

Yeah I guess the cover art was kinda bad for marketing purposes (the japanese one being so much better for example). Still it's pretty weird that the game did basically the same numbers in the UK as it did in the US.

I dont think the new apple products will do any more damage but the cheap kindle fire is a huge game changer. Just think mentally for parents buying gifts

I'd say Nexus 7 is more of a threat than the new kindles for gaming. After all, the raw power along with Jellybean gives Nexus 7 the edge for playing games (never mind the build quality and the bezel that's much bigger on the Kindle and thus making it harder to play)
 
If you put it in the perspective that the whole industry is crashing, these numbers aren't that bad.

If you put it in the perspective that we're living in an apocalypse, two beans for dinner isn't too bad.
 
Let the Vita become irrelevant for one year until they can drop the price without losing money for each one or loss lots of money to give the Vita a chance to be successful?

Has that ever happened in the history of gaming hardware? Just take a gap year, can't see how that would work.

Sony needs to smarten up and just drop support slowly.

They should at least go all out for the holiday season and see what happens before that. The way things are going perhaps they already are?
 
I don´t think that the slumping console sales is due to generation fatigue. I don´t think that we will see the high numbers that we saw this gen. I really doubt that consoles will sell 200+ million come next generation.

Mario Kart 7 is about a million ahead of Mario Kart DS launch alingned. In fact, pretty much all the big 3DS games are matching or exceeding sales of their DS predecessors in the US and the platform at large is still well ahead of DS launch alinged in hardware. Nothing about mpl's 35m/7yr target is really outlandish given the current performance, it might be a little bullish but it's not unrealistic.

Dream on though. :)
The matter of the fact is that MK7 did not sustain the 3DS´s hardware. Even after a price drop and heavy hitters like Mario 3Dland, and MK7 the 3DS was selling 112k 125k in March or April. That implies heavily that most people are not that interested in gaming handhelds. 35 million is unetanable dream. But you keep on dreaming.
iPad and similar will be on the top of many xmas lists, taking money that might have been used on handhelds.

Tablets have plenty of room for growth - the market isn't anywhere close to being saturated yet.

The tablets also compete with consoles. People would spend the little money that they have on all in one devices that they can take everywhere, like smartphones and tablets.
 

Tookay

Member
Could Sleeping Dog's failure be alluded to the fact that it's actually an Asian protagonist in an Asian city and there's very little guns in the game?

I don't think that's it.

I'd attribute more blame to the title itself ("Sleeping Dogs" doesn't convey anything to the mainstream gamer) and the fact that it's not a well-known brand.
 
What i think people dont understand is that tablets represent a big threat to consoles as well

I think maybe for casual games. Where casuals can get a gaming fix without having to spend money on buying an extra dedicated gaming machine. I can see software sales decline if ppl can do it on their tablets instead.

Which is where consoles might have to consider beefing up their graphical prowess and improve their motion controls (Kinect 2.0) to have a selling point. Kinect is something proven casuals are interested in, so at least they have that to appeal to them. Not so sure on Move. . . dead? Wii-u could be hit and miss, will have to wait and see reception on it.
 
The matter of the fact is that MK7 did not sustain the 3DS´s hardware. Even after a price drop and heavy hitters like Mario 3Dland, and MK7 the 3DS was selling 112k 125k in March or April. That implies heavily that most people are not that interested in gaming handhelds. 35 million is unetanable dream. But you keep on dreaming.
This sounds a lot like the arguments I used to make in sales threads circa 2007-8 just replace handhelds with HD consoles. I thought that if people really wanted them they'd buy them at the prices they were at the time and their lack of sales reflected disinterest.

Then the HD twins dropped to near mainstream prices and they both experienced a resurgence. I realized then that I was wrong and all entertainment products have a price threshold beyond which they become unreasonable for mainstream consumption and that price differs from product to product.

All we've really learned from this (and hopefully Nintendo has too) is that the 3DS/XL is priced out of Nintendo's mainstream gaming market.
 
I don´t think that the slumping console sales is due to generation fatigue. I don´t think that we will see the high numbers that we saw this gen. I really doubt that consoles will sell 200+ million come next generation.


The matter of the fact is that MK7 did not sustain the 3DS´s hardware. Even after a price drop and heavy hitters like Mario 3Dland, and MK7 the 3DS was selling 112k 125k in March or April. That implies heavily that most people are not that interested in gaming handhelds. 35 million is unetanable dream. But you keep on dreaming.


The tablets also compete with consoles. People would spend the little money that they have on all in one devices that they can take everywhere, like smartphones and tablets.

Not to be rude, I don't know how you can quote the above, realize that launch aligned these games are selling more than their predecessors, know that the 3Ds is doing well launch aligned despite not having two holiday seasons at this point LTD, and still proclaim that people don't want handhelds.
I think that's a very delusional view. Even if smart phones/tablets erode dedicated handhelds, the fact that the 3DS has sold millions so far, is currently selling at a profit, and will continue to sell for years to come is a fact. This might well be the last generation for handhelds, maybe not, but inevitable profitability and selling millions worldwide is a success. To what extent a success is to be determined. Remember the GameCube was dead last, but was very profitable for Nintendo.
 
The matter of the fact is that MK7 did not sustain the 3DS´s hardware. Even after a price drop and heavy hitters like Mario 3Dland, and MK7 the 3DS was selling 112k 125k in March or April. That implies heavily that most people are not that interested in gaming handhelds. 35 million is unetanable dream. But you keep on dreaming.
3DS hasn't sustained itself? Sorry, the numbers simply don't point to that. It's tracking ahead of DS, it's software is tracking ahead of DS, it managing 65-70% of DS overall performance is hardly an untenable dream. Hope springs eternal though, keeping on wishing it and maybe it'll happen.
 

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
Sony's Choice.

O9nQ2.jpg


If I weren't at work I'd make Sony as Amy, Nintendo as the Doctor, and Microsoft as Rory.
 
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