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[octiny]

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was speaking only to Nov, which is why he used the +75% on Switch.

Can’t wait for NPD Matt to tweet in Jan so we can get the full picture for 2018.

Overall it has been great for all 3 and doesn’t look like a typical year 5 sales trajectory thanks to the mid gen refreshes.

I don’t know why people can’t be happy, they are all raking in a shit ton of money and nobody is exiting the market anytime soon.

Of course Octiny was talking Nov. That's what the thread info is all about..... November NPD sales using YoY growth compared to Nov 2017.

Where does the OP or Octiny say anything about YTD (year to date) info which is what Alexkidd was probably talking about?

I guess some people don't know the difference between YOY and YTD comparisons. Geez

Correct.

I was responding to his initial question of him asking me why the Nintendo numbers were more impressive than Sony's, even though Sony sold more. Not surprised he got everything wrong, considering he initially thought I was talking about Nintendo when I mentioned the "no exclusives" comment. Which he also ignored in his response to me as well lol. People seem to be quick on the trigger to *try* & discredit any non-bend-over for Sony posts.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Correct.

I was responding to his initial question of him asking me why the Nintendo numbers were more impressive than Sony's, even though Sony sold more. Not surprised he got everything wrong, considering he initially thought I was talking about Nintendo when I mentioned the "no exclusives" comment. Which he also ignored in his response to me as well lol. People seem to be quick on the trigger to *try* & discredit any non-bend-over for Sony posts.

As I said earlier, personally I think some of console warriors know what they are doing. Its not they didn't understand what someone wrote or skimmed posts too fast leading to a hasty reply, but more about replying ASAP in a way to confuse people and take a thread into a different direction in hopes any news they don't want focused on, instead gets posters focusing on something else.

Or in this case, something like potentially(?) purposely trying to confuse the stats between YoY and YTD so that everyone would hopefully focus on PS4's +3.5% "YTD" number instead.... (assuming +3.5% YTD is right), where the -13% is lost in the shuffle.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Wow ps4 lost a lot of Momentum.

It didn't.

 

[octiny]

As I said earlier, personally I think some of console warriors know what they are doing. Its not they didn't understand what someone wrote or skimmed posts too fast leading to a hasty reply, but more about replying ASAP in a way to confuse people and take a thread into a different direction in hopes any news they don't want focused on, instead gets posters focusing on something else.

Or in this case, something like potentially(?) purposely trying to confuse the stats between YoY and YTD so that everyone would hopefully focus on PS4's +3.5% "YTD" number instead.... (assuming +3.5% YTD is right), where the -13% is lost in the shuffle.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Sony defenders are strong in this NPD.

I think what happened was they were thinking PS4 would destroy Xbox One and Switch as everyone was bringing up $200 Spidey bundles as if that was the only console sold in the US in November..... and that even ignores all other Sony console variations.

They were expecting a victory by 3 TDs, but won by a FG in OT.

Basically, PS4 is destroying Xbone throughout this entire year in US.

Btw. PS4 is up YOY compared to 2017.

 

[Kagey K]

Or in this case, something like potentially(?) purposely trying to confuse the stats between YoY and YTD so that everyone would hopefully focus on PS4's +3.5% "YTD" number instead.... (assuming +3.5% YTD is right), where the -13% is lost in the shuffle.

Assuming that the +3.5 is correct YTD (and included Nov) it’s likely to get flushed next month and end with PS4 in a minus 10 - 12 range for the year. If Nov wasn’t accounted for it might be in the -15 to 17 range. It could potentially be the only system down YOY after Dec.

Switch growth is great, but should have been expected since this seems to be the second holiday for them, but the first that they aren’t supply constrained and have more games that appeal to more people.

Xbox is looking way up also. The fact that they were essentially flat this Nov with a system launch last Nov seems crazy. They have been way up YTD and if they can even hold flat for Dec will show a bunch growth for the platform YOY.

You can see the market shifting and moving a bit, and now is the time MS and Nintendo should be trying to capitalize on that growth as the uncertainty that comes with each new gen is slowly creeping up.

Nintendo needs to sell enough that the new console don’t catch it too fast, MS needs people thinking they are a legit competitor for your next 5-7 years worth of time and Sony needs to show that they are interested in keeping you as a consumer.

This next 10-18 months is about to get interesting.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Assuming that the +3.5 is correct YTD (and included Nov) it’s likely to get flushed next month and end with PS4 in a minus 10 - 12 range for the year. If Nov wasn’t accounted for it might be in the -15 to 17 range. It could potentially be the only system down YOY after Dec.

Switch growth is great, but should have been expected since this seems to be the second holiday for them, but the first that they aren’t supply constrained and have more games that appeal to more people.

Xbox is looking way up also. The fact that they were essentially flat this Nov with a system launch last Nov seems crazy. They have been way up YTD and if they can even hold flat for Dec will show a bunch growth for the platform YOY.

You can see the market shifting and moving a bit, and now is the time MS and Nintendo should be trying to capitalize on that growth as the uncertainty that comes with each new gen is slowly creeping up.

Nintendo needs to sell enough that the new console don’t catch it too fast, MS needs people thinking they are a legit competitor for your next 5-7 years worth of time and Sony needs to show that they are interested in keeping you as a consumer.

This next 10-18 months is about to get interesting.

Sounds about right.

I'm surprised Switch has done so well. Then again, I thought Wii wouldn't do so well either, and Wii U would do better than it did. So it looks like all my Nintendo predictions are way off. lol

Strictly speaking NPD, unless Sony totally blows it somehow, I don't see PS5 doing poorly. As long as they hum along and release a good system with a good price, I think gaming ecosystems seem tied more than ever especially if PS5 and Xbox Two are BC (which they should be). So gamers will likely stay put. And PS4 should carry the load till the new consoles come out.

I'm surprised Xbox has held up this well. It would be great to see how the S and X splits are. On one hand, I don't see X's selling a ton since it sells for so much, and I haven't seen anyone or any thread going nuts grabbing an S no matter how cheap they are. So either X's are selling much better than I think, or there's actually way more S buyers out there.

As for Nintendo, the Switch is its own universe. I don't think it even matters much that MS and Sony will be showing new consoles soon. it will hum along at its own trend. It's reasonably priced, doesn't do promos and people love the functionality, while not caring it's power/specs aren't great. Since 3DS has faded away, Switch is the new portable gadget (which doubles as a console), while Sony and MS focus on consoles.

The pie is big enough for 3 players which is good. Not just for competition, but for video game players, Nintendo doing well with Switch means portable gaming is covered in some aspect since MS and Sony don't bother with it.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

It's well known that Xbone fell behind X360 globally launch aligned around 2 years ago, now it's the first time that Xbone fell behind X360 in US.
PS4 is now ahead of PS3 LTD in US.

 

[Kagey K]

I'm surprised Xbox has held up this well. It would be great to see how the S and X splits are. On one hand, I don't see X's selling a ton since it sells for so much, and I haven't seen anyone or any thread going nuts grabbing an S no matter how cheap they are. So either X's are selling much better than I think, or there's actually way more S buyers out there.

There was a thread not long ago about this. I posted a bunch on NPD tweets in it.

Seems the X is punching well above it’s weight and demolishing the 20% number we see with the pro.

The S is still the main driver of revenue, but X is grabbing more market share then anyone predicted.

I’ll see if I can find the thread and will edit it in to this post if I do. The tweets came along either the Sept or Oct NPD release.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Sony defenders are strong in this NPD.

I think what happened was they were thinking PS4 would destroy Xbox One and Switch as everyone was bringing up $200 Spidey bundles as if that was the only console sold in the US in November..... and that even ignores all other Sony console variations.

They were expecting a victory by 3 TDs, but won by a FG in OT.

That is correct, next they could be third place and try to amplify anything not positive in the winner, allow no excuses, and find a way to use that to cast doubt / fear in their future while they find anything positive in their performance and find a way to make anything about them part of “the” comeback plan that leads them inexorably to domination. Anything they do is worry some, anything we do is part of the path to victory.

Yeah, that would be fun to read yeah .

 

[Kagey K]

It's well known that Xbone fell behind X360 globally launch aligned around 2 years ago, now it's the first time that Xbone fell behind X360 in US.
PS4 is now ahead of PS3 LTD in US.

Is there anything you care to share about NOV 2018 sales?

 

[AlexxKidd]

Kind of funny to see Sonygaf get so hostile. Ah, reminds me of another site.

Lol they are down YOY for November. This is after all, a November NPD thread. If you put the last 2 sentences together with Nintendo's +75, surely you could've figured that one out yourself by putting two & two together.

Edit: I also said notable decrease (not significantly down). Putting words in people's mouths doesn't make your post come across any better.

https://wikidiff.com/notable/significant

Ok calm down with the Sonygaf it's not uncommon for montly NPD discussions to go anywhere from YoY on the month, to on the year, to LTD sales all in one thread, let's not act like people only bring up numbers from the month in question, I misread your intent which was admittedly November YoY specific.

To your original point you are still missing context. They are down for November but they also sold out of the bundles they produced, and 2017 was the PS4's best year, selling 20 million units in that year alone. Not too many systems are going to sell that many units multiple years in a row, especially in the fifth year. So in order to be up YoY the PS4 is competing with a 20 million unit year, the other systems are not. In order to be up YoY on the month of November they are competing with the highest selling month of that 20 million unit year. They are competing with their own success.

If you sell five pancakes one year and 10 the next you've doubled your profits. If you sell 20 million pancakes one year and 18 the next you've went down in profit. But you still sold more than the guy who sold 10.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Is there anything you care to share about NOV 2018 sales?

Ask Welfare. He is the member here. But since he doesn't post here, will copy his numbers from other forum. It bothers you that Xbone fell behind X360 in US

 

[Panajev2001a]

There was a thread not long ago about this. I posted a bunch on NPD tweets in it.

Seems the X is punching well above it’s weight and demolishing the 20% number we see with the pro.

The S is still the main driver of revenue, but X is grabbing more market share then anyone predicted.

I’ll see if I can find the thread and will edit it in to this post if I do. The tweets came along either the Sept or Oct NPD release.

I would be interested to see it averaged globally. The Xbox One X was made for their core market to signal that MS was serious, to attract the users who wanted the bestest third party graphics outside of the PC, and that did not mind paying for a premium (in U.S. Xbox One X did cut into PS4 Pro sales from Multiplatform gamers that wanted the second console)... successful and smart business proposition.
With a $100 discount for the last month it helped reduce sticker shock significantly too.

 

[Kagey K]

Ask Welfare. He is the member here. But since he doesn't post here, will copy his numbers from other forum. It bothers you that Xbone fell behind X360 in US

Not at all, this was the year for 360 that Kinect came out and changed everything as far as mid system sales go.

I just wondered if you had anything to add to the topic or if you were going to try to downplay Xbox sales all day.

 

[Kagey K]

I would be interested to see it averaged globally. The Xbox One X was made for their core market to signal that MS was serious, to attract the users who wanted the bestest third party graphics outside of the PC, and that did not mind paying for a premium (in U.S. Xbox One X did cut into PS4 Pro sales from Multiplatform gamers that wanted the second console)... successful and smart business proposition.
With a $100 discount for the last month it helped reduce sticker shock significantly too.

I can only go with NPD, that global number is going to be elusive for anyone not sitting at MS. I can only go based on the Tweets NPD Matt put out there.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Not at all, this was the year for 360 that Kinect came out and changed everything as far as mid system sales go.

I just wondered if you had anything to add to the topic or if you were going to try to downplay Xbox sales all day.

It has. I'm talking about US LTD. So, it matters. Kinect or not. Xbone fell behind X360. And i'm glad it did.

 

[Kagey K]

Kinect or not. Xbone fell behind X360. And i'm glad it did.

So basically you aren’t here for a conversation. You are here to shit on Xbox and that is all?

I think we are done. There’s no point to continue this.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Not at all, this was the year for 360 that Kinect came out and changed everything as far as mid system sales go.

I just wondered if you had anything to add to the topic or if you were going to try to downplay Xbox sales all day.

To be fair these threads sometimes seem about downplaying and FUD more than analysis sometimes. Am I not seeing many posts trying every month to pick any sign to predict that the “Age of Sony” is done, to project fear and uncertainty on one side while the sun is shining hopefulness and unicorns on the other?

 

[it_wasn't_me]

So basically you aren’t here for a conversation. You are here to shit on Xbox and that is all?

I think we are done. There’s no point to continue this.

You can't talk normally with Xbone fans here when you gave some facts. I tried normally, but i saw some here mentioned "Sony fanboys, Sony defenders...." before i'd starting posting here. Yeah, you can talk normaly with Xbone fans.

 

[octiny]

Ok calm down with the Sonygaf it's not uncommon for montly NPD discussions to go anywhere from YoY on the month, to on the year, to LTD sales all in one thread, let's not act like people only bring up numbers from the month in question, I misread your intent which was admittedly November YoY specific.

To your original point you are still missing context. They are down for November but they also sold out of the bundles they produced, and 2017 was the PS4's best year, selling 20 million units in that year alone. Not too many systems are going to sell that many units multiple years in a row, especially in the fifth year. So in order to be up YoY the PS4 is competing with a 20 million unit year, the other systems are not. In order to be up YoY on the month of November they are competing with the highest selling month of that 20 million unit year. They are competing with their own success.

If you sell five pancakes one year and 10 the next you've doubled your profits. If you sell 20 million pancakes one year and 18 the next you've went down in profit. But you still sold more than the guy who sold 10.

Well I would, if responses such as yours or others didn't happen lol.

In any event, taking your +3.5 YTD PS4 2018 (if true) versus 2017, this is not accounting for November decline. Nor the more than likely Dec. decline. As noted by the above posts from KageyK & StreetofBeige, would put PS4 as the only console in a YTD decline. We'll find out for sure next month. So whether it's still selling more than it's competitors is besides the point. As seen with Apple, the train doesn't stop there. A decline in sales is a decline in sales. Sony needs to keep shareholders happy, that's all it comes down to. Confidence wanes in a decline. Again, this is why next-gen is starting to take shape.

 

[Kagey K]

To be fair these threads sometimes seem about downplaying and FUD more than analysis sometimes. Am I not seeing many posts trying every month to pick any sign to predict that the “Age of Sony” is done, to project fear and uncertainty on one side while the sun is shining hopefulness and unicorns on the other?

They only go that way if people let them go that way. If people ignored that stuff and talked around them, they would figure it out and “get with the program eventually. “ (Sorry somebody said that to me this week and I laughed so hard. )

The fact is that last year MS, Sony and Nintendo all recorded crazy revenue from their gaming divisions

Next year looks like it could be more.

So why get mad about it? Be happy MS is investing in studios, be happy Sony can afford to do some stuff instead of selling buildings to offset losses, be happy Nintendo is just there, cuz they make you happy and make feel good games.

Be happy that if you don’t like any of those you can still build a PC or geton iOS or Android. There are more options then ever if you want to game, and even though prices are going up it’s getting cheaper and cheaper to play the games you want to play.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Sony can afford to do some stuff instead of selling buildings to offset losses

The sale of one of those buildings started in 2013 (that is when it was put on sale) and the other also happened around that time. The fact we are still using the PSN hack (2011) and this (2013) as news is a bit annoying though.

One could go in Apple related threads and harp about the 90-days from insolvency but over and over and over (1996-1997) and would yes say something correct but quite needlessly inflammatory.

Still fair, let’s be happy and positive .

 

[WaterAstro]

Did Mat Piscatella release numbers yet?

 

[Kagey K]

Did Mat Piscatella release numbers yet?

Not until Mon, so far these are all rough “insider numbers” with no digital for software.

 

[woigemok]

It's good to see Nintendo finally active when promoting their console with a competent deal during BF and CM. Next year is going to be a massive year for them if they're playing their cards right.

 

[EdGalTBR]

YTD:

PS4: ~4526K
NSW: ~3861K
XB1: ~3425K

Can Switch reach 6 Million? It needs to sell 2139K in december to do it.

 

[woigemok]

Not until Mon, so far these are all rough “insider numbers” with no digital for software.

You don't have to worry even with digital GOW is already behind SMO, MK8D, Zelda BOTW and Splatoon 2 in the US, then we have Super Mario Party and Pokemon Let's Go outselling Spiderman.

 

[woigemok]

YTD:

PS4: ~4526K
NSW: ~3861K
XB1: ~3425K

Can Switch reach 6 Million? It needs to sell 2139K in december to do it.

PS4 will get a blue shell right behind the finish line of 2018 year hardware by Switch.

 

[EdGalTBR]

YTD:

PS4: ~4526K
NSW: ~3861K
XB1: ~3425K

Can Switch reach 6 Million? It needs to sell 2139K in december to do it.

 

[Kagey K]

YTD:

PS4: ~4526K
NSW: ~3861K
XB1: ~3425K

Can Switch reach 6 Million? It needs to sell 2139K in december to do it.

Reggies 20 mil goal was for Nintendo fiscal year end (March I think) but no chance they cross 2 mil in dec.

1.8 is the highest I think. I think even that is generous. Bookmark it for next month so I can eat crow if I’m wrong.

 

[Panajev2001a]

PS4 will get a blue shell right behind the finish line of 2018 year hardware by Switch.

It is possible yeah, it would actually be pretty bad if they could not get a nice win with SSB releasing and this being their second big holiday with a very strong lineup not to (unless they are supply constrained... that would not make it bad, just limit how good they could be).

Although, outselling the PS4 by almost a million would be a huge gap.

 

[Kagey K]

Going into Dec if I had to guess it would be.

Switch 1.4-1.5
Xb1 950k-1mil
PS4 850-875k

These are probably all way off. Just my thoughts and estimates going forward.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

YTD:

PS4: ~4526K
NSW: ~3861K
XB1: ~3425K

Can Switch reach 6 Million? It needs to sell 2139K in december to do it.

This was for Nov. 2017 YTD since beginning of 2017 :

PS4 = 4.38m
NSW = 3.38m
XB1 = 2.92m

At the end of Dec. 2017 in US it was :

PS4: 5460K
NSW: 4880K
XB1: 4280K

 

[woigemok]

It is possible yeah, it would actually be pretty bad if they could not get a nice win with SSB releasing and this being their second big holiday with a very strong lineup not to (unless they are supply constrained... that would not make it bad, just limit how good they could be).

Although, outselling the PS4 by almost a million would be a huge gap.

Last December Switch outsells PS4 by 500K with only Xenoblade 2(~200-300k) now imagine with the biggest switch game in the biggest month for Nintendo.

 

[Kagey K]

This was for Nov. 2017 YTD since beginning of 2017 :

PS4 = 4.38m
NSW = 3.38m
XB1 = 2.92m

At the end of Dec. 2017 in US it was :

PS4: 5460K
NSW: 4880K
XB1: 4280K

He was comparing last Nov vs this Nov to get the plus/minus YOY

If you want to make a YTD thread instead of YOY go ahead, but we won’t have the last numbers for the year until mid Jan.

 

[woigemok]

Going into Dec if I had to guess it would be.

Switch 1.4-1.5
Xb1 950k-1mil
PS4 850-875k

These are probably all way off. Just my thoughts and estimates going forward.

Switch with Smash Ultimate(4-5Million opening) is going to do the same as the last year with only Xenoblade 2(~200K-300K)

 

[it_wasn't_me]

He was comparing last Nov vs this Nov to get the plus/minus YOY

If you want to make a YTD thread instead of YOY go ahead, but we won’t have the last numbers for the year until mid Jan.

Just with Switch. He didn't mentioned PS4 and Xbone in how many units needs to be sold to be up or down.

 

[Kagey K]

Switch with Smash Ultimate(4-5Million opening) is going to do the same as the last year with only Xenoblade 2(~200K-300K)

Even if smash did a 3 mil opening month, with 25 million people that already bought it, you have to think it’ll sell cartridges, but not necessarily consoles.

Many of the converted were already converted and had bought in previously.
Smash by itself doesn’t sell consoles, but people that already had it buy Smash.

 

[woigemok]

Even if smash did a 3 mil opening month, with 25 million people that already bought it, you have to think it’ll sell cartridges, but not necessarily consoles.

Many of the converted were already converted and had bought in previously.
Smash by itself doesn’t sell consoles, but people that already had it buy Smash.

That logic doesn't work really well according to Benji since it moves more console than Pokemon Let's GO.
In Japan Smash Ultimate moved 280K hardware and Let's GO moved 200K hardware despite the release of early Smash Bundle(releasing the same day as Pokemon Let's GO)+Pokemon Bundle.

 

[Kagey K]

Ok my thing is....

Is it that one game moving the hardware?

Do you just attribute every console sale to the game that came out that month?

 

[ethomaz]

Where are you getting +3.5% from? PS4 Nov sales are down 13% vs. Nov 2017, while Switch is +75% as Octiny got from the OP.

PS4 is still UP for the year.

 

[woigemok]

Ok my thing is....

Is it that one game moving the hardware?

Do you just attribute every console sale to the game that came out that month?

Why not? especially big games like Smash and Pokemon that will drive hardware sales. Smash is bigger in the US than Japan.

 

[Kagey K]

So if Xbox sells a stellar amount this month was it Ashen or Below that sold the consoles this month.

Gotta make sure I know which one the system seller was.

 

[ethomaz]

November & December sales strong based in deals... if you have a good deal you will sell huge if not you will sell like usually do.

Sony could well sell 2 million of more this month or even December if they put enough stock of $199 PS4...

Of course if MS does that they won’t that much because the potential for sales of XB1 is far inferior to PS4. While Switch at $199 will sell how many Nintendo can produce because it is a bigger deal than $199 PS4 and the potential sales are around the same as PS4.

Said that Sony choose not ship enough units to sell more than what they sold. They even told you that a month ago.

“reductions for promotional and other costs related to PS4 hardware, based on the recent strong business momentum”

They clear reduced promotions compared with last year because they are tracking to even sell more than their projections to the year... so they are focusing in more profit margin than last year.

That is clear and a fact.

But some dudes here will still make nonsense posts.

 

[ethomaz]

So if Xbox sells a stellar amount this month was it Ashen or Below that sold the consoles this month.

Gotta make sure I know which one the system seller was.

Promotion drive sales in December... MS is selling XB1 below $199.

And what you mean stellar? XB1 will probably sell around 1 million in December or perhaps a bit over that.

That is not stellar or even the best XB1 December.

Another way to sell more than usual was if MS had something like old Halo games releasing... that push consoles too.

Only Halo on 360 had the same push of hardware than Pokemon or Smash for Nintendo but Halo this gen is not that game anymore.

 

[it_wasn't_me]

So if Xbox sells a stellar amount this month was it Ashen or Below that sold the consoles this month.

Gotta make sure I know which one the system seller was.

Ashen or Below will sell Xbone consoles? Is that a joke?

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Promotion drive sales in December... MS is selling XB1 below $199.

And what you mean stellar? XB1 will probably sell around 1 million in December or perhaps a bit over that.

That is not stellar or even the best XB1 December.

Looks like Rainbow Skies sold few hundred thousands PS4s in US then.

 

[ethomaz]

Looks like Rainbow Skies sold few hundred thousands PS4s in US then.

Wut?

 

[Kagey K]

Ashen or Below will sell Xbone consoles? Is that a joke?

If Xbox sells more then PS in Dec it must be because of them! No? If a system sells the MK th a game comes out it’s a system seller and everyone bought it for that game? Right?