• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]

watdaeff4

Member
Feb 28, 2015
3,743
0
260
So AAA games going on sale a lot during flash sales, would not have anything to do with possibility of higher digital sales on PS4?
Yeah, you're right. The Xbox Store never has AAA games on sale.

Never.





Why is it inconceivable that XBox might have a higher attach rate? Some serious spin going on in this thread.
 

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
Feb 9, 2007
15,496
0
0
Here's a question - is Nintendo counting alternate paths sold as DLC in their physical + digital numbers for Fire Emblem? Or are they only counting sales of digital versions of the base games?
As I posted earlier

I am sure that each "sale" counted by NPD are physical copies bought in store, and I am sure that the "under 400k" number touted by Nintendo is Physical copies + $40 digital version. What isn't counted is the $20 purchases, I think that at least internally, it is counted as DLC.

If those are counted, I am sure the Fire Emblem sales are way higher than 400k
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
1
0
Mars
So AAA games going on sale a lot during flash sales, would not have anything to do with possibility of higher digital sales on PS4?
For the average, non-exclusive game, selling packaged in the US, the current PS4:Xbox One split is in the neighborhood of 53% PS4, 47% Xbox One.

From the digital data I've seen (not all titles), Xbox One digital sales more often exceed those of PS4.

For the average cross-platform game coming out in the US, the gap in sales between the two platforms is much closer than the overall hardware gap.

This isn't a value judgment on the platforms or the user bases.

Do you think this is the result of the increased time + cost dev cycle of moving to this gen, or other factors?
If you think it is the cost of generational transition (which it looks to me as being the cause), then would it follow that a new hardware cycle would result in another falloff, and a subsequent lower plateau?
Wow great questions.

I think the decline is the result of a few things: 1) Increased costs and time, especially in relation to the change in expected return (as in, expected returns generally haven't kept pace with certain increase in costs). 2) Loss of opportunistic publishers that were chasing the Wii installed base in particular 3) Emergence of alternative platforms that carry less upfront commitment and risk (particularly mobile).

I'd agree with you that the cost of generational transition is a huge factor. So sure if a new hardware cycle emerged where, for example, production of 4k assets led to another significant cost and time increase for development, then sure, I think it'd be safe to assume another falloff for big, packaged AAA games and the publishers that fund them. I think that's a primary reason for MS pushing for the "decoupling" of SW and HW platforms. If platforms are evolutionary, there's more room to make development decisions that could better manage costs. I've been saying it for years, the AAA packaged Console market does not suffer from a consumer demand problem, it suffers from a product supply problem. If more games were made, sales would go higher. However, the risk profile of making AAA packaged games is very high, with very high barriers to entry and a probability of return profile that pushes publishers and developers to safe bets.

What do you think?
 

LordRaptor

Member
Aug 20, 2015
9,769
579
470
At least to my eyes, the data tells me we've gone through the pain, and now is the new norm.

Do you think this is the result of the increased time + cost dev cycle of moving to this gen, or other factors?
If you think it is the cost of generational transition (which it looks to me as being the cause), then would it follow that a new hardware cycle would result in another falloff, and a subsequent lower plateau?
 

viHuGi

Banned
Jun 23, 2015
4,035
0
0
Portugal
Well, none, really. I think it's more a permanent consolidation.

But I don't think it's a trend that is continuing. Publisher and release counts have stabilized, as have revenues. Don't forget, US physical SW revenues were actually up slightly in 2015 vs 2014.

At least to my eyes, the data tells me we've gone through the pain, and now is the new norm.







No.
Good, so many games and most were bad, i rather have less games but better ones that are supported for many years with FREE content not just PAID but also paid DLC yes.

This is the best for the industry, less is better if quality increases, i dont give a crap if they are releasing 15.000 games when one 1 or 2 are good, i rather have 10 when all are superb.
 

Shin-chan

Member
May 8, 2015
1,797
0
0
Do you think this is the result of the increased time + cost dev cycle of moving to this gen, or other factors?
If you think it is the cost of generational transition (which it looks to me as being the cause), then would it follow that a new hardware cycle would result in another falloff, and a subsequent lower plateau?
I think it's that combined with a smoothing out of development pipelines for most big pubs. There are pretty regular releases across the same engine these days and it has allowed pubs to have a stable output with their main franchises. I think it's also because studios and pubs are floundering a bit less and there are fewer closures these days (RIP Lionhead). The "go big or go home ethos" is clearly working for the big publishers.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Jul 26, 2014
26,222
0
0
America
PS4 selling so much in a febuary is insane. All last month was people saying over and over that PS4 was going to tank in Febuary because of the higher than expected January

If it makes you feel any better, I actually like Sakura. People just dislike her for some reason.
Yep its such a mystery why people think she's a badly written character, how could they ever think such a thing.

/s
 

Garlador

Member
Mar 31, 2015
9,995
1
0
Oklahoma
What's supposed to be the right lesson from this? Why would they even make those games if they were already hesitant on making SFV in the first place.
Don't ship Early Access games lacking fundamental and basic features for $60-$80 because casual fans and poor word-of-mouth might affect its sales?

That's my takeaway.
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
1
0
Mars
Good, so many games and most were bad, i rather have less games but better ones


Well, you are getting a higher frequency of better games (in terms of % of all titles published), however you are not getting more, better, games (at least in terms of critical response, as flawed as that is).
 

LordRaptor

Member
Aug 20, 2015
9,769
579
470
This is the best for the industry, less is better if quality increases, i dont give a crap if they are releasing 15.000 games when one 1 or 2 are good, i rather have 10 when all are superb.
I mean... the problem with this line of thinking is that what makes a 'good game' is pretty subjective, the only objective measurement is 'what is popular' because we can know that from sales.

So if only 10 games get released a year, we know exactly what those 10 games are, because they're basically the same top ten selling games that make up the best selling games of the year every year.

Which is actually a pretty depressing list.
 

Sterok

Member
Nov 3, 2014
3,182
0
0
With two high profile games coming out in March, next month will essentially be the last hurrah for the Wii U. I doubt we'll see any exclusives from it chart after March. So that begs the question, Twilight Princess or Pokken, which will open higher? Most indications have pointed towards TP, but I do wonder if there's a chance Pokken pulls an upset.
 

gtj1092

Member
Feb 16, 2008
3,543
0
865
Yeah, you're right. The Xbox Store never has AAA games on sale.

Never.





Why is it inconceivable that XBox might have a higher attach rate? Some serious spin going on in this thread.
It does have a higher attach ratio. But I believe the last time numbers were revealed it was less than a half game difference.
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
1
0
Mars
It does have a higher attach ratio. But I believe the last time numbers were revealed it was less than a half game difference.
0.2, actually.

The PS4 could have -MORE- of a hardcore base than the XB1 alongside a hefty dose of casuals that we would not know. simple as that.
A tie ratio is an average, so, the average PS4 owner buys slightly fewer disc based games than the average Xbox One owner. That's all this metric says.
 

anexanhume

Member
Apr 2, 2013
4,934
0
0
So, without getting into actual numbers...

LTD, SW tie ratio: Xbox One > PS4

PS4 HW gap growth not yet translating to corresponding increase in SW sales split on non-exclusive titles.

Couple hypotheticals from that is that the Xbox One has more core, high purchase rate per install gamers than the more mass market PS4 that is selling more software overall. Not surprising really. Other is that SW metrics can trail HW, so we might see these SW measures begin leaning more towards PS4, but it's not happening yet.
The indication of a strong 'casual' audience is a good one, even if the total sales of PS4 and Xbox One didn't already indicate that to some.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
These silly 'word of mouth killed SF5' parrot posts need to stop. If anything the word of mouth from people who have actually played it is extremely positive, as the core fight game is possibly one of the best ever.
There's many people who own it that are dissapointed though so...
 

AncientDiety

Banned
Feb 25, 2016
820
0
0
People are making way to big a deal out of a slightly higher attach Raye on x1.....higher the user base always has lowercattach rates. Vita has a great attach rate.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
With two high profile games coming out in March, next month will essentially be the last hurrah for the Wii U. I doubt we'll see any exclusives from it chart after March. So that begs the question, Twilight Princess or Pokken, which will open higher? Most indications have pointed towards TP, but I do wonder if there's a chance Pokken pulls an upset.
I hardly see Pokkén outselling Twilight Princess.

1) Zelda has 5 weeks of sales compared to 3 weeks of Pokkén
2) Amazon. I know it's Amazon, but JESUS. Twilight Princess so far has outsold The Division on PS4 in the yearly. I mean, not hourly. Not monthly. But YEARLY.
3) For what we saw so far, Twilight Princess was HUGE in Europe. Just look at the PAL chart... If this is the situation in Europe, USA is only gonna be way better than that.

In short, i think Twilight Princess will win by a huge margin.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
People are making way to big a deal out of a slightly higher attach Raye on x1.....higher the user base always has lowercattach rates. Vita has a great attach rate.
If anything it's the other way around (people reacting to PS4 being lower). Games are selling well on both at its a small number/difference so some of these reactions are silly. It's just a simple stat.
 
Mar 17, 2014
10,388
0
0
Price cuts have started to happen much closer to the holidays than before.

If the PS4 continues this ~20% YoY performance, I don't see a price cut this year unless they want to push VR as much as possible.

Also I think a revision won't happen until 2017 at the earliest.
i'm waiting for another $50 price cut this year, it will keep $299.99 price tag through 2017 and another price cut in 2018.

though it would be awesome and another year of dreams if they decide to slash $100 this year and keep it till 2018.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
Price cuts have started to happen much closer to the holidays than before.

If the PS4 continues this ~20% YoY performance, I don't see a price cut this year unless they want to push VR as much as possible.

Also I think a revision won't happen until 2017 at the earliest.
PSVR needs to be a good price if the PS4 isn't going to get a price drop this year.
 

noobie

Member
Aug 16, 2008
2,296
0
775
www.facebook.com
So, without getting into actual numbers...

LTD, SW tie ratio: Xbox One > PS4

PS4 HW gap growth not yet translating to corresponding increase in SW sales split on non-exclusive titles.

Couple hypotheticals from that is that the Xbox One has more core, high purchase rate per install gamers than the more mass market PS4 that is selling more software overall. Not surprising really. Other is that SW metrics can trail HW, so we might see these SW measures begin leaning more towards PS4, but it's not happening yet.
what about the exclusives. ? is PS4 selling more exclusive games?
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
430
2) Amazon. I know it's Amazon, but JESUS. Twilight Princess so far has outsold The Division on PS4 in the yearly. I mean, not hourly. Not monthly. But YEARLY.
And MGSV on the PS4 outsold both standard editions of Battlefront.

And Hardline flopped.

Amazon isn't accurate at all for software, don't use it.
 
Jan 20, 2010
16,696
27
765
Ken Kutaragi once said that he believed PS5 or PS6 could be based on biotechnology.

Make his dreams come true, Sony!
I mean, biocomputers is actually a real area of scientific research. I don't think it is even close to taking off as a realistic alternative to conventional computing, but there is nothing wrong in dreaming big for future technological progress.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Why is it inconceivable that XBox might have a higher attach rate? Some serious spin going on in this thread.
Exactly. But to be honest, it took me a while to get it, too.

Majority of people don't buy many games. Maybe a call of Duty here, and a Madden/Fifa there.
Majority of people own a PS4.
Connect these two statements.

In the end, this is nothing to be sad about at Sony's. Au contraire. It only shows that the console is the choice of the mainstream. And for a mass product that's no bad news.
 

Ray Down

Banned
Jan 5, 2015
19,613
0
0
And MGSV on the PS4 outsold both standard editions of Battlefront.

And Hardline flopped.

Amazon isn't accurate at all for software, don't use it.
Isn't only really accurate for hardware?

And that just for who usually wins the month?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
And MGSV on the PS4 outsold both standard editions of Battlefront.

And Hardline flopped.

Amazon isn't accurate at all for software, don't use it.
You can't just use some example for say that. Yes, some times Amazon is wrong. The point is, is Amazon ALWAYS wrong?

Let's see recently. According to Amazon, Street Fighter V did bad. Indeed...
Fates has sold really good. indeed...
Mario and Luigi, Final Fantasy Explorer, and others game like this did bad on Amazon. Indeed...

In short, yes. Amazon is not accurate for software, but is still a source. If a game on Amazon is a beast, we can't just ignore it. It's crazy believe that Zelda TP will outsell The Division in March NPD. But if Amazon has Zelda SO MUCH huge, you just ignore it? That's not good, at all. Amazon is like a 50 / 50 case for software.
May be right. May be wrong. If a game on Amazon is doing good, that's a good thing.

Of course, you can't use ONLY amazon as source. But as you see, there are more cource for say Twilight Princess will be huge

I mean, the UK and Germany charts are talking for me. Zelda outsold the second week of Far Cry primal on PS4, which was a HUGE game ( bigger than Far Cry 4 in USA).

We know the second week drop for Primal was 64% in UK, and we know Primal sold OVER 100K first week on PS4.
That's mean that, in Germany first week, TP has almost for sure sold over 30K... and maybe even over 40K for what we know?

No numbers for now, but even if in japan it's gonna bomb, here in west Zelda is huge. Even if is a remastered, it's still gonna sell a lot.

I would be really surprised if Pokkén beat it in USA.

What do you expect for Pokkén?????
 

AncientDiety

Banned
Feb 25, 2016
820
0
0
If anything it's the other way around (people reacting to PS4 being lower). Games are selling well on both at its a small number/difference so some of these reactions are silly. It's just a simple stat.
I am pretty sure it is not the other way around. Larger install base equals wider range of gamers.....Vita is a perfect example really high attach rate.
What reactions? It's just a discussion.
 

Papacheeks

Junior Member
Jan 30, 2013
5,354
2
475
Watertown, NY
For the average, non-exclusive game, selling packaged in the US, the current PS4:Xbox One split is in the neighborhood of 53% PS4, 47% Xbox One.

From the digital data I've seen (not all titles), Xbox One digital sales more often exceed those of PS4.

For the average cross-platform game coming out in the US, the gap in sales between the two platforms is much closer than the overall hardware gap.

This isn't a value judgment on the platforms or the user bases.



Wow great questions.

I think the decline is the result of a few things: 1) Increased costs and time, especially in relation to the change in expected return (as in, expected returns generally haven't kept pace with certain increase in costs). 2) Loss of opportunistic publishers that were chasing the Wii installed base in particular 3) Emergence of alternative platforms that carry less upfront commitment and risk (particularly mobile).

I'd agree with you that the cost of generational transition is a huge factor. So sure if a new hardware cycle emerged where, for example, production of 4k assets led to another significant cost and time increase for development, then sure, I think it'd be safe to assume another falloff for big, packaged AAA games and the publishers that fund them. I think that's a primary reason for MS pushing for the "decoupling" of SW and HW platforms. If platforms are evolutionary, there's more room to make development decisions that could better manage costs. I've been saying it for years, the AAA packaged Console market does not suffer from a consumer demand problem, it suffers from a product supply problem. If more games were made, sales would go higher. However, the risk profile of making AAA packaged games is very high, with very high barriers to entry and a probability of return profile that pushes publishers and developers to safe bets.

What do you think?
Do you think those numbers are because of xbox 360 carry over? Were there a decent amount of people buying digital on xb360?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
Now that i mentioned this... Any chance one version of The Division (PS4 or XB1) sells over 1 million in March NPD?

For a comparation:

[PS4] Destiny < 1,191,000 ( 4 weeks )
[XB1] Destiny < 945,000 ( 4 weeks )
[PS4] Watch Dogs - 583,000 ( 1 week)
[XB1] Watch Dogs - 363,000 ( 1 week)
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Now that i mentioned this... Any chance one version of The Division (PS4 or XB1) sells over 1 million in March NPD?

For a comparation:

[PS4] Destiny < 1,191,000 ( 4 weeks )
[XB1] Destiny < 945,000 ( 4 weeks )
[PS4] Watch Dogs - 583,000 ( 1 week)
[XB1] Watch Dogs - 363,000 ( 1 week)
What are the big releases in march? Is there anything that could distract people from buying The Division? Apart from GTA5 of course.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
430
What are the big releases in march? Is there anything that could distract people from buying The Division? Apart from GTA5 of course.
Nothing else big releases on the XB1 or PS4.

This March is actually pretty light on game releases.