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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

sense

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Aug 4, 2012
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1 - That's not true. Minecraft for example was not an established IP and went against market realities. Mojand created their own universe and catered to an audience that had been largely ignored by many publishers. Sony (The Order) is creating a game that caters to the same audience that buys COD, Destiny, Evolve, Dying Light, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, etc. - it's a much more competitive and crowded environment. The decline of 90% falls solely on Sony's shoulders as it did nothing to distinguish the Order from the many.

2 - I don't have unrealistic expectations. I say the Order should sell as much if not more than Beyond: Two Souls, a 1 million + title. I would view that as a disappointment if the Order would do comparable numbers. This was a game that was suppose to release in the Holiday season to boot. More development time = more money spent.

3 - Dying Light did great but at the end of the day, it all depends on the expectations set by the publishers themselves. If it's profitable, it's a success surely. Shuhei Yoshida mentioned that only 3-4 Sony published titles out of 10 make money. If the Order sells 300-400k in February (a solid opening) and plummets next month, is that a good result and a profitable venture? No.

4 - See all three notes.
Minecraft?really? that falls in the 10% that actually turns out to be a monster hit in the long run. that is why i said 90%.
from what i gather, unless sony comes out and says the exact words "the order was profitable" it would be a disappointment in your eyes because you are still dancing around without giving a number. you say it should sell 1 million plus and then turn around and say that would be a disappointment in your eyes.... and the question was what does it need to sell for you to not be disappointed.

you sound like square enix when tomb raider was considered a failure after selling 3 to 4 million and that would be on a higher install base and also an established ip catering to the same crowd as cod, destiny, ac like you mentioned. so IF (assuming here) you expect the order to sell like 3 or 4 million on one platform with lower install base then yes you do have unrealistic expectations. i think the game will do around 2 million give or take worldwide by the end of this year and that would be a success and I honestly can't see Sony expecting more than that...

Not trying to single you out here but i am just trying to figure what people's expectations are for the game and what would be considered a success for the game?

is it safe to assume sunset, bayonetta2 are flops? titanfall disappointed? where does the order need to be realistically to not be in these two categories?



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crinale

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Sep 25, 2008
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Since Sony is content with current demand, only timing they'd do price cut is when BOM goes down. Has GDDR5 chip with like double capacity gone on mass production?
 

Three

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Why is XB1 leading in software sales when PS4 is selling more? seems odd to me.
Because it's probably not. It has a high attach rate like the vita has a high attach rate but its software sales are likely lower.
 

Opiate

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Dec 4, 2007
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Oh it was a goal.

now you only have 4-5 publishers to compete against at retail. There are hundreds to compete against in digital. Spend big and own one pie and drive everyone else to a secondary market and let them fight it out. You can buy your way into that market down the line when you stabilize at retail and slowly grow that while retail shrinks but the midterm gains are clearly significant
It also helps explain (among many other reasons, of course) why Nintendo's attempts to get the biggest publishers truly on board for the Wii were so unsuccessful, despite the system's popularity; they argued that reduced graphical fidelity could help reduce costs, but that may not be what EA, etc. wanted. Lower production costs meant that companies like Square or Midway could still potentially compete at the highest levels of production.

Again, there were lots of other problems, too, but this is something I don't think Nintendo realized. What they saw as a benefit was perceived as a negligible upside or even a downside by the big four western publishers.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Why is XB1 leading in software sales when PS4 is selling more? seems odd to me.
It's only like an 8% difference in hardware sales... It's not hard to imagine that people who own xboxes on average buy an extra game. You're talking to a big sports and shooter audience. Games like CoD, Destiny, Titanfall, Halo are all right up their alley.

That said too much math for me to figure out aggreate software totals right now, offhand I just know attach is better on Xbox. Not total total. At retail anyway. Something like 4 to 3.8.
 

Officerrob

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Dec 15, 2010
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It seems some understimate the Bloodborne effect , it will move consoles like pancakes
Bloodborne effect? I'm more of an opinion that there is a Bloodborne bubble that many on here live in. Bloodborne will do fine, but there is zero evidence that it will move consoles
 

Orayn

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It's only like an 8% difference in hardware sales... It's not hard to imagine that people who own xboxes on average buy an extra game. You're talking to a big sports and shooter audience. Games like CoD, Destiny, Titanfall, Halo are all right up their alley.

That said too much math for me to figure out aggreate software totals right now, offhand I just know attach is better on Xbox. Not total total. At retail anyway. Something like 4 to 3.8.
Wonder if PS4 owners buy digital games at a higher rate, perhaps enough to shrink or close that gap? 0.2 games per console is like 1 in 5 people on PS4 buying a digital game for an XB1 owner who goes physical, which sounds like it could be within the realm of possibility.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Wonder if PS4 owners buy digital games at a higher rate, perhaps enough to shrink or close that gap? 0.2 games per console is like 1 in 5 people on PS4 buying a digital game for an XB1 owner who goes physical, which sounds like it could be within the realm of possibility.
Why PS4 owners would buy digital games more than XBO owners?
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Wonder if PS4 owners buy digital games at a higher rate, perhaps enough to shrink or close that gap? 0.2 games per console is like 1 in 5 people on PS4 buying a digital game for an XB1 owner who goes physical, which sounds like it could be within the realm of possibility.
From my understanding yes, ps4 digital converts better. A major turnaround from last generation. But that's an entirely different topic for a different thread. Here is for retail.
 

Three

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Wonder if PS4 owners buy digital games at a higher rate, perhaps enough to shrink or close that gap? 0.2 games per console is like 1 in 5 people on PS4 buying a digital game for an XB1 owner who goes physical, which sounds like it could be within the realm of possibility.
I have little doubt about this being true in Jan/Dec. It was when the $29 pick a game digital codes were being sold.
 

zero shift

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Nov 17, 2012
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I expect that the decline of console sales becomes more and more noticeable as this gen progresses. As I assumed some time ago, they were likely front loaded.

Also it is good to see that the Wii U continues to slowly turn things around, but passing 50k really shows how huge of a failure the console really is sales wise. Nintendo's next system can't come soon enough.
 

Opiate

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I expect that the decline of console sales become more and more noticeable as this gen progresses. As I assumed some time ago, they were likely front loaded.

Also it is good to see that the Wii U continues to slowly turn things around, but passing 50k really shows how huge of a failure the console really is sales wise. Nintendo's next system can't come soon enough.
We don't really have evidence of this yet. I mean, it's certainly possible, but Nov/December were strong for PS4/Xbox. It's important not to take every down month and think "A ha! The decline has started!"

Maybe. But maybe not.
 

ttech10

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May 17, 2010
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Why is XB1 leading in software sales when PS4 is selling more? seems odd to me.
Madden, Destiny, COD and GTA.

I imagine some of those like Destiny and GTA people got PS4 bundles with them or they already had a PS4 and got those games earlier. More Xbox Ones were sold during the holiday, many probably got them for Christmas, so not surprising many would buy more games the next month.

COD and Madden are games that will almost always sell more on Xbox.
 

GamerJM

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May 19, 2013
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IMO console sales declines are sad but not completely unexpected. I just hope they can maintain a solid holiday season. I'm more interested in upcoming NPDs, mostly because I'm interested in seeing how New 3DS does and also how games like Bloodborne and Type-0 HD do in the future.
 

zero shift

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Nov 17, 2012
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We don't really have evidence of this yet. I mean, it's certainly possible, but Nov/December were strong for PS4/Xbox. It's important not to take every down month and think "A ha! The decline has started!"

Maybe. But maybe not.
I apologize. I should have reworded my post so it sounds less like a certainty.
 

Orayn

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Did Dragon Age Inquisition ever make the Top Ten lists?
IIRC its absence was also a digital-related thing. Bioware said it had a higher than average level of digital sales on consoles, and more sales on PC than a lot of other games that chart in NPD. (With PC being even more skewed toward digital, obv.)
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Not sure why it would be that way either, I just though of it as one thing that might explain the gap in retail software sales.

Didn't mean to derail, my bad.
I think is normal the lower install base have a better attach rate.
 

RBK

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Sep 12, 2010
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Bloodborne effect? I'm more of an opinion that there is a Bloodborne bubble that many on here live in. Bloodborne will do fine, but there is zero evidence that it will move consoles
I would think the evidence that the Order is doing better numbers in pre-orders would be enough, but the hype is there I suppose.
 

The Artisan

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Bloodborne effect? I'm more of an opinion that there is a Bloodborne bubble that many on here live in. Bloodborne will do fine, but there is zero evidence that it will move consoles
you'd be surprised at how many casual gamers are interested in the game, at least those who know about it which I think are many
 

Opiate

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I would think the evidence that the Order is doing better numbers in pre-orders would be enough, but the hype is there I suppose.
It's just the (relatively common) disconnect between GAF--audience-hype and broader hype. Sometimes, obviously, GAF is a good gauge; Smash Brothers sold well and got lots of talk on GAF, Halo sells well and has a strong following on GAF, Uncharted sells well and is beloved on GAF too.

But sometimes GAF isn't in touch. Certainly, mobile and handhelds generally are a good example of when GAF shows relatively little interest while the general populace does. And conversely, games like Bloodbourne or The Last Guardian represent a more niche interest that happens to appeal to the GAF demographic particularly strongly.

That isn't to say that Bloodbourne will sell poorly, or that it's a bad game, or anything like that. And probably at least some people will buy PS4s for it. But it's very unlikely to be a major mover.
 

Apt101

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Bloodborne may provide a sales boost during the month following its release, rather than the month of, as the streamers hit Twitch. I suppose this can be said about any anticipated game, but the popular streamers who dedicate a lot of time to the 'Souls games tend to have a lot of followers and get a lot of eyes when those games first release. The attention could push people over the fence.

This is all assuming the game is actually good when it releases.
 

allan-bh

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Bloodborne is the type of game that hardcore fanbase really loves and start to dream that could be a surprise success.
 

madmackem

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Hmmm if this continues what next for Ms, they've already cut the price effectively twice now with the removal of kindest then the price drop and gave away games, that doesn't leave them much room to wiggle was it really worth doing all that to win two months?. Seemed like a panic move which now leaves them no room to do much if ps4 continues to outsell it.
 

Massa

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Bloodborne is the type of game that hardcore fanbase really loves and start to dream that could be a surprise success.
It's also the kind of game where the small number of people who are into are passionate enough to buy a console to play.

Hmmm if this continues what next for Ms, they've already cut the price effectively twice now with the removal of kindest then the price drop and gave away games, that doesn't leave them much room to wiggle was it really worth doing all that to win two months?. Seemed like a panic move which now leaves them no room to do much if ps4 continues to outsell it.
Given that most games are selling better now on Xbox One I don't think Microsoft is in a bad position at all. "Winning" a month is irrelevant.
 

vinnygambini

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Aug 7, 2013
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Minecraft?really? that falls in the 10% that actually turns out to be a monster hit in the long run. that is why i said 90%.
from what i gather, unless sony comes out and says the exact words "the order was profitable" it would be a disappointment in your eyes because you are still dancing around without giving a number. - 1

you say it should sell 1 million plus and then turn around and say that would be a disappointment in your eyes.... and the question was what does it need to sell for you to not be disappointed. - 2

you sound like square enix when tomb raider was considered a failure after selling 3 to 4 million and that would be on a higher install base and also an established ip catering to the same crowd as cod, destiny, ac like you mentioned. so IF (assuming here) you expect the order to sell like 3 or 4 million on one platform with lower install base then yes you do have unrealistic expectations. - 3

i think the game will do around 2 million give or take worldwide by the end of this year and that would be a success and I honestly can't see Sony expecting more than that...

Not trying to single you out here but i am just trying to figure what people's expectations are for the game and what would be considered a success for the game?

is it safe to assume sunset, bayonetta2 are flops? titanfall disappointed? where does the order need to be realistically to not be in these two categories?
If you want to continue the conversation, please feel free to PM me but I do not want to derail the thread. This will be the end of my contribution in this thread in relation to the Order.

1 - I'm not dancing around the number whatsoever because shipping a certain amount of copies does not equate whether it is a success or a failure. A prime example would be Tomb Raider as you presented, 3 million shipped and yet viewed as a company failure until it broke the 6 million barrier, where it eventually started being profitable.

2 - As per my previous post, if the Order achieves the same threshold as Beyond: Two Souls, I would view that as a disappointment. As such, if it exceeds that threshold, I think one should be pleased by the result.

3 - I really don't know where you got this from my post. All I mentioned is that: "the Order caters to the same audience that buys COD, Destiny, Evolve, Dying Light, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, etc. - it's a much more competitive and crowded environment." In essence, asking that audience to invest in a new IP at a 59.99$ price tag is a much more difficult sell than one could imagine - "the Order did nothing to distinguish from the many."
 
I expect that the decline of console sales becomes more and more noticeable as this gen progresses. As I assumed some time ago, they were likely front loaded.

Also it is good to see that the Wii U continues to slowly turn things around, but passing 50k really shows how huge of a failure the console really is sales wise. Nintendo's next system can't come soon enough.
I just purchased a Wii U in January so no, they can hold off for a few more years
 

RoboPlato

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Oct 29, 2006
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From my understanding yes, ps4 digital converts better. A major turnaround from last generation. But that's an entirely different topic for a different thread. Here is for retail.
This would be really surprising to me. Would have thought it was the other way around.
 

EventHorizon

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Jul 15, 2013
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It isn't even mediocre, it is poor. PS3 only sold less than 200k in January 2012, five years after the launch.

Now we have confirmation why Sony has been doing deals in February. I think they'll only drop the price in the second half of the year, though.

Based on the posted numbers:



PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
I believe the difference is due to the lack of system selling games in the second holiday season after launch for the next gen systems. Comparing the PS4 with the PS2, the PS2 had 9 games with a metacritic score equal to or higher than 90 for that time period while the PS4 had only 1. To make matters worse that one game, Grand Theft Auto V, was a remake of a game already on the prior gen systems.

There simply was no driving force to push gamers to pick up a new system, and yet the PS4 hangs in pretty good with the PS2. Remember that the PS2 came out in October in North America while the PS4 came out in November. That means to accurately compare the holiday seasons the PS2 graph needs to be shifted to the left one month. When you do that you see that it really is only the second to last month that the PS2 outpaces the PS4. Considering the 9-to-1 advantage the PS2 had over the PS4 in system selling games, that's not too bad at all.

Code:
PS2 Hit Games for Second Holiday Season
Sept-Dec
================================
97: Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3
97: Grand Theft Auto III
96: Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
94: Devil May Cry
92: Final Fantasy X
92: SSX Tricky
92: NHL 2002
90: Jak and Daxter: The Precursor Legacy
90: ICO


PS4 Hit Games for Second Holiday Season
Sept-Dec
================================
97: Grand Theft Auto V