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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Santa Destroy
What did Square say about those companies?
I know this may be surprising, but Square is not a major player in the US publishing market. They aren't in the top 10... They also havent had a lot of console content recently.

That said, Warner, Disney, etc... Where were they just a few years ago? Now they've groen pretty well.

Also I didn't mention Take Two above but they also posted huge numbers
 

Opiate

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Dec 4, 2007
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Taking inflation into consideration, $400 in today's money is right around the same as $300 was back then. Of course, that's ignoring the economy.
It also ignores the size of the market. The market has grown enormously, and includes a much larger segment of price-conscious consumers. One could make a reasonable argument that the many of these consumers are (And will continue to) ignore the console market as long as the viable consoles are all so expensive. $300 or $400 or even $500 is probably fine if all you want to do is capture the traditional console consumer base which has highly inelastic demand. It's less fine if you want to capture any of the market the Wii had or that mobile / casual platforms have now stolen from consoles.
 

Lion Heart

Banned
Mar 12, 2007
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Good shit for Sony, lets see a price drop in April and you guys will kill it. I'd imagine we'd see a drastic move with the Bone if that happens. Something crazy like 249 with a game.
 
I know this may be surprising, but Square is not a major player in the US publishing market. They aren't in the top 10... They also havent had a lot of console content recently.

That said, Warner, Disney, etc... Where were they just a few years ago? Now they've groen pretty well.

Also I didn't mention Take Two above but they also posted huge numbers
We can expand this really.

There are basically no relevant Japanese publishers in the Western market outside of Nintendo (and they're in a pretty reduced state).

This is extra true when you limit it to their Japanese developed games.
 

gamechanger87

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Jul 10, 2013
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1) TO1886 and BB will move consoles
2) The PS4 is doing great even without those two

It's a win-win really.
Dark Souls 2 was released on PC, PS3 and 360 with a massive install base and last I saw it was somewhere around 2.5M. BB is only on one platform. I see this being a lot less.
 

Sayad

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Feb 24, 2014
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If MS forces their hands PS4 will see one next holiday season. Crushing sales will ensue.
If they wait until the next holiday season for the first price cut, I wouldn't call that as their hand being forced. ;p

How many other consoles held their launch price for 2 years?
 

travisbickle

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Mar 26, 2006
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is the industry dying? serious question. $350 really isnt that much for a game console especially when u consider inflation rates. im sure consoles used to cost more past gens.

sony and ms have been bundling heavily, how much lower could they even go at this early stage.

The U.S. market has changed, can't tell yet if less people are buying full stop, or less people are buying at higher price point.

Fortunately there's a global market out there to sell consoles to, unfortunately MS is less successful than Sony at this.
Sony have been selling really well in new markets, markets that are prime for high growth. If it continues Sony should do well and consoles won't die, and it could have a knock on effect of more variety in games when devs aren't focusing on the US market.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Santa Destroy
We can expand this really.

There are basically no relevant Japanese publishers in the Western market outside of Nintendo (and they're in a pretty reduced state).

This is extra true when you limit it to their Japanese developed games.
Yea I just didn't want to be the one to say it because people tend to attack me ;)

Sony sits in the bottom 5 sometimes and can creep into top 5 depending if they have impactful 1st party content that month
 
is the industry dying? serious question. $350 really isnt that much for a game console especially when u consider inflation rates. im sure consoles used to cost more past gens.

sony and ms have been bundling heavily, how much lower could they even go at this early stage.
There's an easier way to think about this:

1.) The expanded market is basically gone. That means all the extra people Nintendo reached are out in mobile land, as well as many young children.

2.) The b-tier market and the licensed game markets are also gone (and show up as a mix of downloadable, mobile, or f2p titles). This hurt handhelds a lot on top since b-tier games and licensed products made up many of their games, and that's before we even get to the meteoric impact of mobile there.

3.) The entertainment center market is largely gone with the advent of things like the Roku and the fact streaming has gotten vastly more popular so you don't need something for the newest disc format.

4.) This has basically left the people who buy major AAA games as far as retail goes. They're not a huge audience, but they buy a lot of software and large enough for the current setup, so publishers are happy with that.

Overall you're going to see a lot less hardware sold in aggregate, but the section of the industry we saw publishers cluster around still exists in a healthy (well, very polarized) state.

This is why most publishers are also investing heavily in digital, f2p, and/or mobile though. They know that the AAA market has limits, so if they want growth, that has to come from elsewhere.

This is also why the release calendar is pretty barren, since publishers aren't going to spend a ton of money on something with a high chance of failure.
 

crinale

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Sep 25, 2008
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We can expand this really.

There are basically no relevant Japanese publishers in the Western market outside of Nintendo (and they're in a pretty reduced state).

This is extra true when you limit it to their Japanese developed games.
IMHO the skew of console / handheld ratio between Japanese and Western market really caught Japanese devs..
 

Lion Heart

Banned
Mar 12, 2007
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A Year ago would you expected the console's price would be cut by $150 with two free games thrown in? Nothing is too crazy at this point.
Yeah pretty much. Maybe they wouldn't drop to 249 right away but a few months later, definitely next holiday season they could be at 249 with a game. This is all assuming Sonys drops to 299, they might only do a $50 drop then the Bone would comparatively be $299.
 
IMHO the skew of console / handheld ratio between Japan and Western market really caught Japanese devs..
It was also the ballooning nature of the productions themselves.

The amount of money and process overhead required to make a AAA game is intense.

If you're used to working with a 40-60 person team in an old fashioned development model, it's very difficult to scale up to 300-1000+ people across multiple studios with tons of outsourcing and extreme iterative development models.

You need more production staff than you had team members in total to do something like that.
 

The Shogun

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Jul 24, 2014
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What would they hit top 10 with? Serious question because I can't even remember their last major retail release. Maybe a Street Fighter game?
Street Fighter 5 will be a top 10 NPD game Im sure. Besides that not sure, I guess a new Devil May Cry would do it
 

Opiate

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Dec 4, 2007
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It was also the ballooning nature of the productions themselves.

The amount of money and process overhead required to make a AAA game is intense.

If you're used to working with a 40-60 person team in an old fashioned development model, it's very difficult to scale up to 300-1000+ people across multiple studios with tons of outsourcing and extreme iterative development models.

You need more production staff than you had team members in total to do something like that.
Just thought I'd point out that I've argued for quite some time that the reason EA / Take 2 / et. al. have pushed so hard for the AAA model even when profits were low or nonexistent is that it raised barriers to entry so significantly that no one else could compete.

I think the evidence shows that, whether that was their goal or not, it certainly has had that precise effect.
 
Just thought I'd point out that I've argued for quite some time that the reason EA / Take 2 / et. al. have pushed so hard for the AAA model even when profits were low or nonexistent is that it raised barriers to entry so significantly that no one else could compete.

I think the evidence shows that, whether that was their goal or not, it certainly has had that precise effect.
Yes, the only "new" entrant to the top tiers of the market in recent years is a mega billion multimedia conglomerate.

Beyond that EA, Activision, Ubisoft, and Take-Two hold an astronomical portion of the market share.

Outside of Warner, the other growing (but still more niche) publisher is ZeniMax, which is backed by Providence.
 

Opiate

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Dec 4, 2007
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Yes, the only "new" entrant to the top tiers of the market in recent years is a mega billion multimedia conglomerate.

Beyond that EA, Activision, Ubisoft, and Take-Two hold an astronomical portion of the market share.

Outside of Warner, the other growing (but still more niche) publisher is ZeniMax, which is backed by Providence.
There was also Epic, but they've backed out of the arms race at this point.
 

Manmademan

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Nov 3, 2006
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What would they hit top 10 with? Serious question because I can't even remember their last major retail release. Maybe a Street Fighter game?
Resident evil, street fighter, dragons dogma are all relevant. You may not like them but all three can clock million seller status pretty easily.

konami doesn't have a ton of IP, but phantom pain will be a juggernaut. Silent Hills also has a lot of interest.

Square Enix has more relevant ip than both, though eidos has been doing the heavy lifting. deus ex and tomb raider are both valuable ip. Outside of that FFXV and KH3 will move units easily.

The Japanese devs aren't anywhere near as strong as they used to be, but they're not irrelevant.
 

pastrami

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May 23, 2014
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Street Fighter 5 will be a top 10 NPD game Im sure. Besides that not sure, I guess a new Devil May Cry would do it
That's in the future. Last year, Capcom released basically nothing. There's nothing that would really indicate that Capcom would be in the top 10 list of publishers. Unless the situation is more dire than I thought and Capcom did crack the top 10 with their line-up last year.

Resident evil, street fighter, dragons dogma are all relevant. You may not like them but all three can clock million seller status pretty easily.

konami doesn't have a ton of IP, but phantom pain will be a juggernaut. Silent Hills also has a lot of interest.

Square Enix has more relevant ip than both, though eidos has been doing the heavy lifting. deus ex and tomb raider are both valuable ip. Outside of that FFXV and KH3 will move units easily.

The Japanese devs aren't anywhere near as strong as they used to be, but they're not irrelevant.
See above.

EDIT: In fact, if Square Enix didn't crack the top 10 with Kingdom Hearts 2.5D, Thief, Sleeping Dogs DE, and Tomb Raider DE, I'm damn near positive that Capcom wasn't in the top 10.
 

crinale

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Sep 25, 2008
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It was also the ballooning nature of the productions themselves.

The amount of money and process overhead required to make a AAA game is intense.

If you're used to working with a 40-60 person team in an old fashioned development model, it's very difficult to scale up to 300-1000+ people across multiple studios with tons of outsourcing and extreme iterative development models.

You need more production staff than you had team members in total to do something like that.
I agree. And while Japanese devs had to get used to larger production team model sooner or later, the boom of DS / PSP allowed them to do away with it for AA (or even some AAA) titles. I think they wished they could stay that way but for this gen it isn't happening. So, they better finally adapt the model, or at least try to, unless they are going all mobile and abandon the console gaming as a whole. From what I see they aren't going all mobile just yet, though.
 

ascii42

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Mar 27, 2007
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It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Xbone / PS4 eventually passes the Wii in year 6, or something. The Wii fell off quite hard as mobile competition relentlessly ate in to its market.
One of the biggest issues they face in passing the Wii is each other, since they are in direct competition. One of the two systems has to significantly pull away from the other. The 360 has only barely passed the Wii, and it has outsold the PS3 by a good 15 million or so. I could see both consoles peaking in the 30 million range if they continue to be close)

(This is assuming that a sale of one console is a lost sale of the other, but of course that's not necessarily true)
 

gcubed

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Mar 7, 2007
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Given the unbundling of Kinect, the $150 difference isn't really that astounding. Most of it is not, strictly speaking, a price cut.
Nobody wanted kinect, so it's a $150 price cut. Just because they removed something the market didn't want, doesn't make it not a price cut. They completely misread the market and adapted.
 
There was also Epic, but they've backed out of the arms race at this point.
I always considered them more of a standalone studio like Valve or Crytek since they weren't funding a large array of AAA games and actually had publishers for their titles.

I agree. And while Japanese devs had to get used to larger production team model sooner or later, the boom of DS / PSP allowed them to do away with it for AA (or even some AAA) titles. I think they wished they could stay that way but for this gen it isn't happening. So, they better finally adapt the model, or at least try to, unless they are going all mobile and abandon the console gaming as a whole. From what I see they aren't going all mobile just yet, though.
Yes, they basically got to stay with PS2 era production models all the way up to and including now if they wanted to.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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There's going to be a whole lot more homogenization of game design, consolidation of profits and bankrupt developers and publishers this generation. Fewer and fewer will remain in the AAA space.
Nah, that's already all happened. Publisher and release count declines stopped in 2014, the transition is over, winners and losers have been basically determined. Nothing left to consolidate.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Santa Destroy
Just thought I'd point out that I've argued for quite some time that the reason EA / Take 2 / et. al. have pushed so hard for the AAA model even when profits were low or nonexistent is that it raised barriers to entry so significantly that no one else could compete.

I think the evidence shows that, whether that was their goal or not, it certainly has had that precise effect.
Oh it was a goal.

now you only have 4-5 publishers to compete against at retail. There are hundreds to compete against in digital. Spend big and own one pie and drive everyone else to a secondary market and let them fight it out. You can buy your way into that market down the line when you stabilize at retail and slowly grow that while retail shrinks but the midterm gains are clearly significant
 

Boke1879

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Apr 25, 2013
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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assassins Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
I have a feeling Arkham Knight will be huge.